• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sleeping Beauty problem

Search Result 6, Processing Time 0.018 seconds

Sleeping Beauty: a Garberian Approach (잠자는 미녀 문제에 대한 가버식 해결책)

  • Kim, Nam-Joong
    • Korean Journal of Logic
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.107-154
    • /
    • 2012
  • In my previous paper (2009), I defended a solution of the Sleeping Beauty problem, according to which, on Monday, Sleeping Beauty assigns a lower credence to the coin's landing heads than 1/2. This conclusion was largely favorable to the Thirder view. However, even if my defense of the Thirder view was successful, it left one important question to be unanswered: Where did the Halfers go wrong? Their main argument was simple: Because Sleeping Beauty does not receive new and relevant evidence about how the coin lands, her credence in its landing heads should remain to be the same. But note that, if the Thirder view was right and Sleeping Beauty receives no new and relevant evidence, then this becomes a special case of the so-called old evidence problem (Glymour, 1980). In this paper, I will explain why it is rational for Sleeping Beauty to change her credence despite the lack of new evidence about the coin's landing heads. For this explanation, I will use Garber's well-known solution to the old evidence problem.

  • PDF

When Sleeping Beauty Awaked: An Argument for 1/2 (동전을 던진 후 미녀를 깨우다)

  • Kim, Myeog-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Logic
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.17-53
    • /
    • 2012
  • Some Korean Philosophers has manifested their opinions on Sleeping Beauty problem. For example, Hasuk Song and Namjoong Kim stands for an thirder, while Hanseung Kim for a perspectivistic compatibilist. In order to fill a vacant position, I shall make an argument for halfers in this paper. My presumption is that the probability the question now given to sleeping beauty is the first question among several is greater than thirder's calculated value. Futhermore, I argue that the probability the coin landed heads on condition that the question now given to sleeping beauty is the first question is greater than 1/2.

  • PDF

What is the Correct Answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem? (잠자는 미녀의 문제, 그의 대답은?)

  • Song, Ha-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Logic
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-23
    • /
    • 2011
  • I take the position of the thirders on the sleeping beauty problem like Elga and criticize Lewisian halfers. In particular, I attack Franceschi's recent arguments for the halfers. In addition, I claim that Bostrom's and Kim's hybrid view is not satisfactory, because it is to pre-empt or to take the burden of proof that the problem is the genuine paradox. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to show that the thirders' argument is more intuitive than others and what the fallacies of the halfer's arguments are.

  • PDF

Sleeping Beauty's Reflection: In and Out (잠자는 미녀의 숙고: 안과 밖)

  • Kim, Han-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Logic
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-52
    • /
    • 2010
  • What van Fraassen calls 'Reflection Principle' is claimed to meet several counterexamples, one of which stands out in the form of the Sleeping Beauty problem. Adam Elga argues that what he believes is the correct answer to the Sleeping Beauty problem shows that Reflection is subject to counterexamples. David Lewis proposes a different answer which preserves Reflection intact. Recently, Nick Bostrom presents a hybrid view which is supposed to allow us to keep Reflection. In proposing his hybrid view Bostrom criticizes both Elga and Lewis while taking some 'good' parts from each. He claims that Elga's view is not entirely acceptable because it presupposes the 'Self-Indication Assumption'. I shall claim, however, that Elga could avoid Bostrom's criticisms by introducing Bostrom's notion of agent-part. I believe that several probability-related puzzles including the Sleeping Beauty problem indicate a promising view concerning the way we should regard our future selves' opinions. According to this view, whether one takes the outsider stance or insider stance makes a difference in an important way that one and the same proposition is associated with different degrees of belief by one agent.

  • PDF

Perspectivism on Probability (확률에 대한 관점주의)

  • Kim, Han-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Logic
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.59-84
    • /
    • 2011
  • Professor Song criticizes my view on the Sleeping Beauty problem in his recent paper which endorses the thirder solution. I shall argue that his criticism is based upon a strong interpretation on my view and that this interpretation is neither unique nor proper. Critically examining recent discussions on observer-relativity of probability I shall claim that my perspectivistic solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem is still plausible.

  • PDF

비만(肥滿) CLINIC 내원환자(來院患者) 453 CASES에 대(對)한 임상적(臨床的) 고찰(考察)

  • An, Gyeong-Sun;Seong, Nak-Gi
    • Journal of Haehwa Medicine
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.219-246
    • /
    • 1993
  • In 1991, Obesity rate of South Korea has reached to 18.7%. Because of economical development, the pattern of diet is exchanged from carbohydrate to rich protein and fat. The more problem is not only obesity of adult but also one of little child. Obesity is induced to diabetes mellitus, hypertension, artherosclerosis, hyperlipoidemia. heart and C.V.A disease, etc. In Woman, special important ploblem is the complex of beauty about Woman's figure. In Oriental Medicine, the factor of obesity is mainly regarded as dampness. And there are many treatments and methods to body weight loss, but obesity patients dislike to use them because of their side effects and inconvenience, intolerance. Now ear acupuncture is applied on so many disease because of its easy handly, non-side effect and high efficiency in clinics. Here obesity acupuncture is used to ear and whole body acupuncture. Because they react eachother for lack point. Therefore, in order to investigate the effect of obesity acupuncture and develop non-drug, non-starvation etc, we analyzed 453 the cases of body weight loss patients treated with ear and whole body acupuncture in Oriental Medicine Hospital of Jeon-Ju Woo-Sug University from April.1.1992. to March.17. 1993. The results were summarized as follows. 1. Distribution of sex ; male (4.4%), Female(95.6%) 2. Distribution of age in descending order ; 30s, 20s, 40s, 10s, 50s, below 10s, abowe 60s. The 20s-30s are group made up 60.7% of the group. 3. Distribution of occupation in descending order; housewife, student, service, salaried, merchant, teacher, farmer, inoccupation. 4. Distribution of human coporal constitution in descending order : Tae-Eum-In, So-Eum-In, So-Yang-In. 5. Distribution of body height and weight, 155-164cm ; 71.1%, 60-70kg, 74.6% are majority. 6. Distribution of weight variation, 2-6kg(71.0%) is majority, also 13-14kg(0.4%). 7. Distribution of duration in descending order ; 1-3 years, 3-6 years, 1-12months, above 10 years but in success, 1-12 months, 1-3 years, 3-6 years, above 10 years. Therefore, we know that the shorter duration of obesity is, the more loss of body weight. 8. Past experiences to body weight loss; Yes(69.5%), No(30.5%). The success rate accordant with the past temporary experiences shows that the cases without experience is higher than the ones with experience. 9. In distribution of times(treatments), 10 times is top. The rate of body weight loss is the highest in 14 times. Therefore, I think that one would need at least 10 times. in order lose body weight 10. Distribution of body weight variation in treatments times is at 2 times(3-4kg loss), and surprisingly is 14kg loss at above 15 times. 11. Distribution of symptoms improvement, in descending order ; heavy sense in body, dec. of appetite, inc.of exercise, lumbago, edema, knee pain, inc.of urine, inc. of fullness sense, thirsty, disease of gynecology, white tung, chest burning, heart burning, dec.of tobacco, drink taste. motion sickness, allergy, water eczema, arthma, belching. 12. Distribution of snack; Yes(87.4%), No(78.6%) 13. Distribution of exercise; Yes(21.4%), No(78.6%) 14. Distribution of sleeping times, above 7 hours(79.0%) 15. Distribution of the reason to body loss, the complex of beauty(68.7%) is top. 16. Distribution of side effect in obesity acupuncture, constipation (17.4%) is top. 17. Distribution of method in body weight loss ; dietary treatment (31.1%), sauna(26.7%), exercise(19.7%), the center of body weight loss (15.0%) herb-med and starvation treatments (5.1%), hand-finger acupuncture (hand-foot acupuncture) is 1.6%, diet pill(0.3%), etc(0.6%).

  • PDF