• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.105-138
• /
• 2009

Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.183-188
• /
• 2005

Effects of co-solvent polarity, citric acid, pressure, temperature, run time, and co-solvent ratio on extraction of major flavonoids from Lonicera Flos were investigated using supercritical fluid $CO_{2}(SF-CO_{2})$. HPLC analysis revealed addition of pure methanol resulted in low extraction yield of major flavonoids, luteoloin (Lu), Quercetin (Qu), Apigenin (Ap). Under same condition, as co-solvent polarity increased, yields of major flavonoids increased gradually, At optimum co-solvent extraction condirion of 60% aqueous methanol (10%, v/v), yields of Lu, Qu, and Ap were 42.09, 28.18, and 3.49 mg/100 g, respectively. Addition of citric acid to 60% aqueous methanol gave higher, with addition of 1% citrie acid resulting in highest yields of 63.2 (Lu), 39.35 (Qu), and 5.79 (Ap) mg/100 g. Optimum extraction conditions of major flavonoids were 200 bar, $50^{\circ}C$, 60 min, and $CO_{2}$-methanol-water(20: 1.8: 1.2).

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.285-297
• /
• 1993

For the application of the diffusion equation, slope height and maximum slope angle are calculated from the plotted slope profile. Using denudation rate as a solution for the diffusion equation, an apparent age index can be calculated, which is the total amount of denudation through total time. Plots of slope angle versus slope height and apparent age index versus slope height are useful for determining relative or absolute ages and denudation rates. Mathematical simulation plots of slope angle versus slope height can generate equal denudation-rate lines for a given age. Mathematical simulations of slope angle versus age for a given slope height, for equal denudation-rate at a particular profile site, and for comparing to other sites having controlled ages.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.192-205
• /
• 2009

The unexpected wind over the Mt. Hwawang on 9 February 2009 was deadly when many spectators were watching a traditional event to burn dried grasses and the fire went out of control due to the wind. We analyzed the fatal wind based on wind flow simulations over a digitized complex terrain of the mountain with a localized heating area using a three dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, CFD_NIMR_SNU (Computational Fluid Dynamics_National Institute of Meteorological Research_Seoul National University). Three levels of fire intensity were simulated: no fire, $300^{\circ}C$ and $600^{\circ}C$ of surface temperature at the site on fire. The surface heat accelerated vertical wind speed by as much as $0.7\;m\;s^{-1}$ (for $300^{\circ}C$) and $1.1\;m\;s^{-1}$ (for $600^{\circ}C$) at the center of the fire. Turbulent kinetic energy was increased by the heat itself and by the increased mechanical force, which in turn was generated by the thermal convection. The heating together with the complex terrain and strong boundary wind induced the unexpected high wind conditions with turbulence at the mountain. The CFD_NIMR_SNU model provided valuable analysis data to understand the consequences of the fatal mountain fire. It is suggested that the place of fire was calm at the time of the fire setting due to the elevated terrain of the windward side. The suppression of wind was easily reversed when there was fire, which caused updraft of hot air by the fire and the strong boundary wind. The strong boundary wind in conjunction with the fire event caused the strong turbulence, resulting in many fire casualties. The model can be utilized in turbulence forecasting over a small area due to surface fire in conjunction with a mesoscale weather model to help fire prevention at the field.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.37 no.6
• /
• pp.637-645
• /
• 2013

Masan bay with a semi-enclosed waters has serious water quality problems due to the low flow and river pollution load from land, and shows the vulnerable locational characteristics to storm surge. We are seeking the way of both operating disaster prevention facilities and water quality improvement measures in the bay. That is, the water was exchanged using the head difference occurred by operating disaster prevention facilities. The location of disaster prevention facilities was assumed to be in the inlet of the bay, in the vicinity of Machang bridge, and in the vicinity of Dot island and the operation time was assumed to be early morning hours(01~05) considering the number of shipping passage and annual tide, and spring tide of the largest head difference. In addition, the experiment case of water exchange including the in-outflow feeder pipe was tested. According to the simulation results, water exchange rate in all experiments has shown a steady increase. Water exchange rate of the whole of Masan bay in the case of present is 38.62%. The water exchange rate of the inside of Masan bay compared with the inlet of bay, appeared to be very low. Thus, we judged that the characteristics of semi-enclosed waters were well reproduced. On the results of the experiment of disaster prevention facilities and in-outflow feeder pipe, the case of the operation of disaster prevention facilities, water exchage rate is high compared with the case of present. And, the higer the operating frequency, the more water exchange is appeared. The cases of water exchange prevention facilities through the in-outflow feeder pipe caused by the head difference, also showed the higest improvement of the water quality. Compared with the south of Machang bridge, the effect of water exchange was better in the inlet of Masan bay and Dot island. On the other hand, the inlet of Masan bay is higer than Dot island as for water exchange of the whole of Masan bay, but opposite, water change rate including Masan inside was higher in the case of Dot island.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.71-79
• /
• 1998

Purpose : The objective of this study is to introduce our installation of a non-commercial 3D Planning system, Plunc and confirm it's clinical applicability in various treatment situations. Materials and Methods : We obtained source codes of Plunc, offered by University of North Carolina and installed them on a Pentium Pro 200MHz (128MB RAM, Millenium VGA) with Linux operating system. To examine accuracy of dose distributions calculated by Plunc, we input beam data of 6MV Photon of our linear accelerator(Siemens MXE 6740) including tissue-maximum ratio, scatter-maximum ratio, attenuation coefficients and shapes of wedge filters. After then, we compared values of dose distributions(Percent depth dose; PDD, dose profiles with and without wedge filters, oblique incident beam, and dose distributions under air-gap) calculated by Plunc with measured values. Results : Plunc operated in almost real time except spending about 10 seconds in full volume dose distribution and dose-volume histogram(DVH) on the PC described above. As compared with measurements for irradiations of 90-cm 550 and 10-cm depth isocenter, the PDD curves calculated by Plunc did not exceed $1\%$ of inaccuracies except buildup region. For dose profiles with and without wedge filter, the calculated ones are accurate within $2\%$ except low-dose region outside irradiations where Plunc showed $5\%$ of dose reduction. For the oblique incident beam, it showed a good agreement except low dose region below $30\%$ of isocenter dose. In the case of dose distribution under air-gap, there was $5\%$ errors of the central-axis dose. Conclusion : By comparing photon dose calculations using the Plunc with measurements, we confirmed that Plunc showed acceptable accuracies about $2-5\%$ in typical treatment situations which was comparable to commercial planning systems using correction-based a1gorithms. Plunc does not have a function for electron beam planning up to the present. However, it is possible to implement electron dose calculation modules or more accurate photon dose calculation into the Plunc system. Plunc is shown to be useful to clear many limitations of 2D planning systems in clinics where a commercial 3D planning system is not available.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.135-152
• /
• 1983

Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

• Journal of KIISE:Databases
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.742-757
• /
• 2001

Since database management systems(DBMSS) have limited lock resources, transactions requesting locks beyond the limit mutt be aborted. In the worst carte, if such transactions are aborted repeatedly, the DBMS can become paralyzed, i.e., transaction execute but cannot commit. Lock escalation is considered a solution to this problem. However, existing lock escalation methods do not provide a complete solution. In this paper, we prognose a new lock escalation method, adaptive lock escalation, that selves most of the problems. First, we propose a general model for lock escalation and present the concept of the unescalatable look, which is the major cause making the transactions to abort. Second, we propose the notions of semi lock escalation, lock blocking, and selective relief as the mechanisms to control the number of unescalatable locks. We then propose the adaptive lock escalation method using these notions. Adaptive lock escalation reduces needless aborts and guarantees that the DBMS is not paralyzed under excessive lock requests. It also allows graceful degradation of performance under those circumstances. Third, through extensive simulation, we show that adaptive lock escalation outperforms existing lock escalation methods. The results show that, compared to the existing methods, adaptive lock escalation reduces the number of aborts and the average response time, and increases the throughput to a great extent. Especially, it is shown that the number of concurrent transactions can be increased more than 16 ~256 fold. The contribution of this paper is significant in that it has formally analysed the role of lock escalation in lock resource management and identified the detailed underlying mechanisms. Existing lock escalation methods rely on users or system administrator to handle the problems of excessive lock requests. In contrast, adaptive lock escalation releases the users of this responsibility by providing graceful degradation and preventing system paralysis through automatic control of unescalatable locks Thus adaptive lock escalation can contribute to developing self-tuning: DBMSS that draw a lot of attention these days.

• Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
• /
• v.146
• /
• pp.307-328
• /
• 2018

The use of thought experiments has a long history in many disciplines including science. In the field of philosophy, thought experiments have frequently appeared in the pre-existing literature on the contemporary Analytic Philosophy. A thought experiment refers to a synthetic environment where the designer of the experiment-with his or her intuition and imagination-tests common-sense knowledge. It can be understood as a conceptual tool for testing the validity of the common understanding of an issue or a phenomenon. However, we are not certain about the usefulness or efficacy of a thought experiment in knowledge production. The design of a thought experiment is meant to lure readers into believing as intended by the experiment itself. Thus, regardless of the purpose of a thought experiment, many readers who encounter the experiment could feel deceived. In this paper, to analyze the logic of thought experiments and to seek the source of uneasiness the readers and critics may feel about thought experiments, I draw lessons from three renowned thought-experiments: Thomson's 'ailing violinist', Putnam's 'brain in a vat', and Searle's 'Chinese room'. Imaginative thought experiments are usually constructed around a gap between the reality and the knowledge/information at hand. From the three experiments, several lessons can be learned. First, the evidence of the existence of a gap provided via thought experiments can serve as arguments for counterfactual situations. At the same time, the credibility and efficacy of the thought experiments can be damaged as soon as the thought-experiments are carried out with inappropriate and/or murky directions regarding the procedures of the experiment or the background of the study. According to D. R. Hofstadter and D. C. Dennett(1981), the 'knob setting' in a thought experiment can be altered in the middle of a simulation of the experimental condition, and then the implications of the thought experiment change altogether, indicating that an entirely different conclusion can be deduced from thought experiment. Lastly, some pre-suppositions and bias of the experiment designers play a considerable role in the validity and the chances of success of a thought experiment; thus, it is recommended that the experiment-designers refrain from exercising too much of their imagination in order to avoid contaminating the design of the experiment and/or wrongly accepting preconceived/misguided conclusions.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.31-50
• /
• 2010

The Arctic climate change for the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) occurred at 21,000 years ago (21ka) was investigated using simulation results of atmosphere-ocean coupled models from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Program(PMIP2). In the analysis, we used seven models, the NCAR CCSM of USA, ECHAM3-MPIOM of German Max-Planxk Institute, HadCM3M2 of UK Met Office, IPSL-CM4 of France Laplace Institute, CNRM-CM3 of France Meteorological Institute, MIROC3.2 of Japan CCSR at University of Tokyo, and FGOALS of China Institute of Atmospheric Physics. All the seven models reproduces the Arctic climate features found in the present climate at 0ka(pre-industrial time) in a reasonable degree in comparison to observations. During the LGM, the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and other greenhouse gases were reduced, the ice sheets were expanded over North America and northern Europe, the sea level was lowered by about 120m, and orbital parameters were slightly different. These boundary conditions were implemented to simulated LGM climate. With the implemented LGM conditions, the biggest temperature reduction by more than $24^{\circ}C$ is found over North America and northern Europe owing to ice albedo feedback and the change in lapse rate by high elevation. Besides, the expansion of ice sheets leads to the marked temperature reduction by more then $10^{\circ}C$ over the Arctic Ocean. The temperature reduction in northern winter is larger than in summer around the Arctic and the annual mean temperature is reduced by about $14^{\circ}C$. Compared to low mid-latitudes, the temperature reduction is much larger in high northern altitudes in the LGM. This results mirror the larger warming around the Artic in recent century. We could draw some information for the future under global warming from the knowledge of the LGM.