• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.86-93
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• 2015

최근 선박의 안전항해를 위해 해사서비스 목록인 MSP에 대한 국제적인 논의가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 성공적으로 MSP를 개발하기 위해서는 먼저 MSP의 구조와 데이터 표준화가 되어야 한다. 또한 육상-선박, 선박-선박 간 제공되는 IT서비스가 안전항해에 효과적인지 평가하고 데이터의 전달 및 표현방법에 대한 사전 적합성 검토가 필요하다. 따라서 본 논문에서 제안하는 시뮬레이션 시스템은 항해사 교육 목적으로 사용하는 선박 조종 시뮬레이터와 달리 일반 PC 환경에서 동작하여 MSP의 IT서비스를 개발하고 검증하는 것을 목적으로 설계하였다. 시스템은 시나리오 편집기 모듈과 항해환경 3차원 시각화 모듈, 항해기기 2차원 시각화 모듈로 구성되어 있다. 시나리오 편집기 모듈은 시뮬레이션 시나리오를 작성하고 시뮬레이션을 운용하는 기능을 제공한다. 항해환경 3차원 시각화 모듈은 작성된 시나리오에 따라 해상환경과 항해환경의 상호작용을 3차원으로 표현하는 기능을 제공한다. 항해기기 2차원 시각화 모듈은 선박의 주요 항해기기의 상호작용을 2차원으로 표현하는 기능을 제공한다. 개발된 시뮬레이션 시스템을 이용하여 다수 선박이 항구에 입 출항하는 항해환경을 구성하고 자선을 항구에 입항하는 시험을 행하여 국제해사기구에서 개발되어진 일부 MSP의 효용성을 평가하기 위한 시뮬레이션에 사용할 수 있다는 것을 확인하였다.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제13권11호
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• pp.236-248
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• 2013

본 연구의 목적은 표준화 환자를 활용한 신경계 환자 간호 시뮬레이션 학습을 위한 시나리오 개발과 그의 효과를 평가하기 위함이다. 단일군 사전 사후 설계이며 연구 참여자는 4학년 간호대학생이다. 본 연구는 자발성 뇌출혈 환자 사례의 시나리오를 개발하였고, 표준화 환자를 활용한 간호시뮬레이션 학습시나리오는 간호학생의 문제해결능력 및 임상수행능력을 향상시켰다. 본 연구를 통해 간호학생이 의식사정 등을 포함한 간호사정을 학습함으로써 보다 전문적인 간호사로 성장할 수 있는 계기가 될 수 있다는 점에서 의의가 있으며, 추후 표준화 환자를 활용한 시뮬레이션 학습 시나리오가 다양한 분야에서 개발되어야 함을 제언한다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.148-151
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• 2007

The Korea Meteorological Administration has been operating a tsunami warning system which is based on tsunami scenario database for the East Sea. Recently, the tsunami scenario database for the Yellow sea and the East China sea is also generated so that the tsunami warning system is extended to the whole Korean seas. Tsunami scenario database includes tsunami arrival times and heights generated by performing huge numbers of tsunami propagation simulations. A leap-frog method for shallow water equation is used for the simulation. The simulation code is parallellized via Message Passing Interface and has run on Cray X1E.

• 대기
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.355-364
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• 2016

Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

• 한국CDE학회논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.104-112
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• 2013

Computer-based modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques have become an essential component in the development of new weapons systems. M&S techniques provide a means to simulate military training, strategies, military doctrines, and weapons acquisition processes. This paper proposes a small scale engagement scenario generation method. This work also includes a process for scenario generation and visualization. The proposed scenario generation methodology employs the Timed-FSA (finite state automata) and DFS (depth first search) algorithms. The proposed scenario generation method is verified using a one-on-one combat engagement scenario between two submarines. In addition, we suggest a scenario generation process including whole scenario generation and scenario visualization.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.473-479
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• 2013

This paper introduces user intervention to control simulation states during the execution of a simulation for military engagements. In an engagement simulation, it covers both a discrete event system and a continuous state system. Thus a system for the engagement simulation can have numerous simulation states, because there are lots of factors to decide states of an engagement that are derived during an execution of the simulation (e. g. detection probability, moving speed, moving path, and so on). It means both a result and progression of simulations are important outputs. Configuration of an engagement simulation scenario and expectation of simulation states, though, is hindered by the number of generate-able states. In order to solve the obstacle, the engagement simulation system should be controllable by user intervention during a simulation execution. This paper is to define objects of user intervention, and to design control processes of defined objects.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.32-38
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• 2015

A sine with dwell test is well known as a test scenario for evaluation of performance of electronic stability control(ESC) on passenger vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles. However, when it comes to ESC for medium commercial vehicles, the test scenario has not been established yet. In this paper, the sine with dwell test was modified considering characteristics of medium commercial vehicles. The three main modifications of the original test scenario are the steering angle level, steering frequency, and loading condition of the vehicle. These modifications are derived from simulation study for different medium commercial vehicles. From simulation study, it was shown that the ESC system for medium commercial vehicle is objectively evaluated by the proposed test scenario. A clear improvement on vehicle stability was seen in the results when ESC system was used.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.252-259
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to estimate the movement of microbial contaminant caused by bio-attack using bio-agent such as bacillus anthracis for preventing contaminant diffusion. multizone simulation was carried out in the case of three types of bio-attack scenario in the government building. Simulation results show that severe contaminant diffusion is brought about in all cases of bio-attack scenario in one hour, though pollution boundaries have different mode according to bio-attack scenarios. Simulation results also show that immune building technology such as filter and UVGI technology gives us powerful alternatives to meet the emergent situation caused by unexpected bio-attack.