• Title/Summary/Keyword: Simple prediction model

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Genetic Algorithm based Hybrid Ensemble Model (유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 앙상블 모형)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2016
  • An ensemble classifier is a method that combines output of multiple classifiers. It has been widely accepted that ensemble classifiers can improve the prediction accuracy. Recently, ensemble techniques have been successfully applied to the bankruptcy prediction. Bagging and random subspace are the most popular ensemble techniques. Bagging and random subspace have proved to be very effective in improving the generalization ability respectively. However, there are few studies which have focused on the integration of bagging and random subspace. In this study, we proposed a new hybrid ensemble model to integrate bagging and random subspace method using genetic algorithm for improving the performance of the model. The proposed model is applied to the bankruptcy prediction for Korean companies and compared with other models in this study. The experimental results showed that the proposed model performs better than the other models such as the single classifier, the original ensemble model and the simple hybrid model.

Development of a Lightweight Prediction Model of Fuel Injection Rates from High Pressure Fuel Injectors (고압 인젝터의 분사율 예측을 위한 경량 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Sanggwon;Bae, Gyuhan;Atac, Omer Faruk;Moon, Seoksu;Kang, Jinsuk
    • Journal of ILASS-Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.188-195
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    • 2020
  • To meet stringent emission regulations of automotive engines, fuel injection control techniques have advanced based on reliable and fast computing prediction models. This study aims to develop a reliable lightweight prediction model of fuel injection rates using a small number of input parameters and based on simple fluid dynamic theories. The prediction model uses the geometry of the injector nozzle, needle motion data, injection conditions and the fuel properties. A commercial diesel injector and US No. 2 diesel were used as the test injector and fuel, respectively. The needle motion data were measured using X-ray phase-contrast imaging technique under various fuel injection pressures and injection pulse durations. The actual injector rate profiles were measured using an injection rate meter for the validation of the model prediction results. In the case of long injection durations with the steady-state operation, the model prediction results showed over 99 % consistency with the measurement results. However, in the case of short injection cases with the transient operation, the prediction model overestimated the injection rate that needs to be further improved.

Color Prediction of Yarn-dyed Woven Fabrics -Model Evaluation-

  • Chae, Youngjoo;Xin, John;Hua, Tao
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2014
  • The color appearance of a yarn-dyed woven fabric depends on the color of the yarn as well as on the weave structure. Predicting the final color appearance or formulating the recipe is a difficult task, considering the interference of colored yarns and structure variations. In a modern fabric design process, the intended color appearance is attained through a digital color methodology based on numerous color data and color mixing recipes (i.e., color prediction models, accumulated in CAD systems). For successful color reproduction, accurate color prediction models should be devised and equipped for the systems. In this study, the final colors of yarn-dyed woven fabrics were predicted using six geometric-color mixing models (i.e., simple K/S model, log K/S model, D-G model, S-N model, modified S-N model, and W-O model). The color differences between the measured and the predicted colors were calculated to evaluate the accuracy of various color models used for different weave structures. The log K/S model, D-G model, and W-O model were found to be more accurate in color prediction of the woven fabrics used. Among these three models, the W-O model was found to be the best one as it gave the least color difference between the measured and the predicted colors.

Bayes Prediction for Small Area Estimation

  • Lee, Sang-Eun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2001
  • Sample surveys are usually designed and analyzed to produce estimates for a large area or populations. Therefore, for the small area estimations, sample sizes are often not large enough to give adequate precision. Several small area estimation methods were proposed in recent years concerning with sample sizes. Here, we will compare simple Bayesian approach with Bayesian prediction for small area estimation based on linear regression model. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated through unemployment population data form Economic Active Population(EAP) Survey.

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Prediction and Control of Welding Deformation for Panel Block Structure (평 블록 구조의 용접변형 예측 및 제어)

  • Kim, Sang-Il
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2008
  • The block assembly of ship consists of a certain type of heat processes such as cutting, bending welding residual stress relaxation and fairing. The residual deformation due to welding is inevitable at each assembly stage. The geometric inaccuracy caused by the welding deformation tends to preclude the introduction of automation and mechanization and needs the additional man-hours for the adjusting work at the following assembly stage. To overcome this problem, a distortion control method should be applied. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop an accurate prediction method which can explicitly account for the influence of various factors on the welding deformation. The validity of the prediction method must be also clarified through experiments. This paper proposes a simplified analysis method to predict the welding deformation of panel block structure. For this purpose, a simple prediction model for fillet welding deformations has been derived based on numerical and experimental results through the regression analysis. On the basis of these results, the simplified analysis method has been applied to some examples to show its validity.

Prediction System on Chance of Rain by Fuzzy Relational Model

  • Sano, Manabu;Tanaka, Kazuo;Yoshioka, Keisuke
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1222-1225
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    • 1993
  • The purpose of this paper is to construct a prediction system on the chance of rain in a local region using a fuzzy relational model. The prediction system consists of two parts. One is a prediction part on the chance of rain. The compositional law of fuzzy inference, proposed by Zadeh, is applied to predict the chance of rain. The other is a learning part of a fuzzy relational model using input-output data. A simple and fast learning algorithm is used in this part. Simulations are carried out by the actual weather data in our city and their results show the validity of prediction by the fuzzy relational approach.

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Implementation of Fund Recommendation System Using Machine Learning

  • Park, Chae-eun;Lee, Dong-seok;Nam, Sung-hyun;Kwon, Soon-kak
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we implement a system for a fund recommendation based on the investment propensity and for a future fund price prediction. The investment propensity is classified by scoring user responses to series of questions. The proposed system recommends the funds with a suitable risk rating to the investment propensity of the user. The future fund prices are predicted by Prophet model which is one of the machine learning methods for time series data prediction. Prophet model predicts future fund prices by learning the parameters related to trend changes. The prediction by Prophet model is simple and fast because the temporal dependency for predicting the time-series data can be removed. We implement web pages for the fund recommendation and for the future fund price prediction.

Estimation of peak wind response of building using regression analysis

  • Payan-Serrano, Omar;Bojorquez, Eden;Reyes-Salazar, Alfredo;Ruiz-Garcia, Jorge
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2019
  • The maximum along-wind displacement of a considerable amount of building under simulated wind loads is computed with the aim to produce a simple prediction model using multiple regression analysis with variables transformation. The Shinozuka and Newmark methods are used to simulate the turbulent wind and to calculate the dynamic response, respectively. In order to evaluate the prediction performance of the regression model with longer degree of determination, two complex structural models were analyzed dynamically. In addition, the prediction model proposed is used to estimate and compare the maximum response of two test buildings studied with wind loads by other authors. Finally, it was proved that the prediction model is reliable to estimate the maximum displacements of structures subjected to the wind loads.

A Study on the Predictability of Hospital's Future Cash Flow Information (병원의 미래 현금흐름 정보예측)

  • Moon, Young-Jeon;Yang, Dong-Hyun
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2006
  • The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

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