• 제목/요약/키워드: Short-term variations

검색결과 154건 처리시간 0.029초

한국 남부 해역 SST의 계절 및 경년 변동이 단기 딥러닝 모델의 SST 예측에 미치는 영향 (Impacts of Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities of Sea Surface Temperature on its Short-term Deep-learning Prediction Model Around the Southern Coast of Korea)

  • 주호정;채정엽;이은주;김영택;박재훈
    • 한국해양학회지:바다
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2022
  • 해수면 온도는 기후와 바다의 생태계 그리고 인간의 활동에까지 중요한 영향을 미치는 해수의 특성 중 하나로 이를 예측하는 것은 항상 중요하게 다뤄지는 문제다. 최근 들어 과거의 패턴을 학습하여 예측값을 생성할 수 있는 딥러닝을 활용한 해수면 온도 예측이 복잡한 수치모델을 이용한 예측의 대안으로 주목받고 있다. 딥러닝은 입력 자료 간의 비선형적인 관계를 추정할 수 있는 것이 큰 장점이며, 최근 컴퓨터 그래픽카드의 발달로 많은 양의 데이터를 반복적이고 빠르게 계산할 수 있게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 딥러닝 모델의 단점들을 보완하면서 시공간 자료를 다룰 수 있는 합성곱 신경망(Convolutional Neural Network) 기반의 U-Net을 통해 단기 해수면 온도 예측을 수행하였다. 개발한 딥러닝 모델을 이용한 한국 남부 근해 해수면 온도의 단기 예측은 예측일의 해수면 온도의 중장기 변동성에 따라 달라지는 성능을 보였다. 해수면 온도 변동성의 증감은 계절적 변동 뿐 아니라 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 지수의 변동과도 유의미한 상관관계를 보였는데, 이는 계절 변동 및 PDO에 따른 기후 변화에 기인한 수온 전선의 강도 변화가 해수면 온도의 시공간적 변동성에 영향을 줌으로써 발생했음을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 해수면 수온 자료가 가지고 있는 계절적 변동성과 경년 변동성이 딥러닝 모델의 해수면 단기 수온 예측 성능에 기여함을 밝힌 것에 그 의의가 있다.

노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망 (An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force)

  • 김중수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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복합 위성을 이용한 허베이스피리트 유류오염해역 모니터링 (M/T Herbei Sprit Oil Spill Area Monitoring Using Multiple Satellite Data)

  • 김상우;정희동
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.283-288
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 고해상도인 아리랑 2호(KOMPSAT-2)와 ENVISAT ASAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar) 마이크로웨이브 위성 영상을 이용한 유류 분포 면적 추정과 저해상도인 해색위성 자료를 이용하여 허베이스피리트호 유류오염 사고 발생 전후의 클로로필 a 농도를 분석하였다. KOMPSAT-2와 ASAR 위성에서 추정된 유출유 확산 분포 면적은 각각 59,456 $m^2$ 과 1,168 $km^2$로 추정되었다. QuickScat 위성관측 바람은 유류오염 사고 전후에 북풍과 북서풍이 우세하였고, 유류오염 사고 당시 바람은 10m/s 이상의 강한 북서풍이 탁월하였다. 태안과 안면도 연안해역의 클로로필 a의 월별 농도는 유류사고 당시인 2007년 12월에 각각 2.9 mg/$m^3$과 2.5 /$m^3$ 이었으나, 그 한 달 후인 2008년 1월에는 각각 6.3 mg/$m^3$과 3.7 mg/$m^3$로 클로로필 a 농도가 현저하게 증가하였다. 또한, 이들 지역에서 콜로로필 a 농도의 단기변화는 유류오염 사고 발생 1-2 주일 후에 그 농도가 감소한 것을 알았다.

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GPS 위성시계오차의 장단기 특성 분석 (Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Characteristics of GPS Satellite Clock Offsets)

  • 손은성;박관동;김경희
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제28권6호
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    • pp.563-571
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    • 2010
  • GPS 위성은 세슘과 루비듐으로 이루어진 원자시계가 3~4개 탑재되어 있으며 NANU 정보를 통해 현재와 과거에 사용했었던 원자시계의 종류를 파악할 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 2001년부터 2009년까지의 SP3 파일에서 각 PRN에 대한 위성시계오차를 추출하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 대체적으로 세슘시계는 직선형태, 루비듐시계는 곡선형태의 특성을 보였으나 일정한 경향은 나타나지 않았다. 또한 일주일간의 CLK 파일에서 위성시계오차를 추출하여 각 PRN별로 1차식과 2차식으로 접합하고 그 결과를 비교하였다. 세슘시계의 경우 2차식보다 1차식이 추출 데이터와 유사하였으며 루비듐시계의 경우 2차식이 추출 데이터와 유사하였고 특정 PRN은 다차항 형태의 특성을 보였다. 그리고 Modified Allan Deviation 방법을 이용하여 2007년과 2010년의 GPS 위성을 Block별, 원자 시계별로 분석하였다. 그결과 GPS 위성은 Block별, 원자시계별로 서로 다른 특성이 보였으며 Block 또는 원자시계가 변경되면 그 특성도 변경되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Study on the Short Term Exposure Level (STEL) of the Benzene for the Tank Lorry Truck Drivers during Loading Process

  • Park Doo Yong
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.27-31
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    • 2004
  • Some of the petroleum products contain benzene which is well known as a confirmed human carcinogen. For example, gasoline products contain benzene ranging up to several percents by weight. High exposures to the benzene and other organic solvents would be likely to occur during intermittent tasks and or processes rather than continuous jobs such as sampling, repair, inspection, and loading/unloading jobs. The work time for these jobs is various. However, most of work time is very short and the representative time interval is 15 minutes. Thus, it is preferable to do exposure assessment for 15 minute time weighted average which is known as a short time exposure level(STEL) by ACGIH rather than for 8-hours TWA. It is particularly significant to the exposure monitoring for benzene since it has been known that the exposure rate plays an important role to provoke the leukemia. Due to the large variations, a number of processes/tasks, the traditional sampling technique for organic solvents with the use of the charcoal and sampling pumps is not appropriate. Limited number of samples can be obtained due to the shortage of sampling pumps. Passive samplers can eliminate these limitations. However, low sampling rates resulted in collection of small amount of the target analysts in the passive samplers. This is originated the nature of passive samplers. Field applications were made with use of passive samplers to compare with the charcoal tube methods for 15 minutes. Gasoline loading processes to the tank lorry trucks at the loading stations in the petroleum products storage area. Good agreements between the results of passive samplers and those of the charcoal tubes were achieved. However, it was found that special cautions were necessary during the analysis at very low concentration levels.

소나무 연륜연대기를 이용한 영동지방의 5~6월 강수량 (253년간: A.D. 1746~1998) 복원 (Reconstruction of May~June Precipitation (253 Years: A.D. 1746~1998) in East-Coastal Region (Yungdong) of Korea from Tree Rings of Pinus densiflora S. et Z.)

  • 박원규;서정욱
    • 한국제4기학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2000
  • 설악산에서 작성된 8개 지역 연륜연대기 중 강수량 복원에 적합한 대승폭포 인근 2개 지역(해발고 700~900m)의 연륜연대기를 이용하여 253년간 (A.D. 1746~A.D. 1998)의 5월~6월 총강수량을 복원하였다. 1765~1800년(최장 가뭄), 1835~1845년, 1890~1910년, 1920~1940년, 1980~1995년이 건조기로 나타났으며, 1810~1830년, 1860~1890년, 1950~1970년이 습윤한 시기로 나타났다. 장기간으로 보았을 때, 18세기 후반기는 건조한 기간이었으며, 19세기의 5월~6월 총강수량이 250mm로 20세기의 231mm보다 많아 19세기가 20세기보다 상대적으로 습윤하였음을 알 수 있었다. 강수량 변화폭이 19세기가 20세기보다 큰 것으로 관찰되었다. 전 기간에 걸친 주요한 건습 주기는 단기간은 3년, 장기간은 60~80년으로 조사되었다. 서울지방의 측우기 자료와는 1800년대 초를 제외하곤 대체로 일치하였다.

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A Study on the ASF Correction Age and Error for Effective eLORAN Data Channel Utilization in Korea

  • Choi, Yun Sub;Hwang, Sang-Wook;Yeo, Sang-Rae;Park, Chansik;Yang, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Sang Jeong
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2013
  • The vulnerability of GPS to interference signals was reported in the early 2000s, and an eLORAN system has been suggested as a backup navigation system for replacing the existing GPS. Thus, relevant studies have been carried out in the United States, Europe, Korea, etc., and especially, in Korea, the research and development is being conducted for the FOC of the eLORAN system by 2018. The required performance of the eLORAN system is to meet the HEA performance, and to achieve this, it is essential to perform ASF correction based on a dLORAN system. ASF can be divided into temporal ASF, nominal ASF, and spatial ASF. Spatial ASF is the variation due to spatial characteristics, and is stored in an eLORAN receiver in the form of a premeasured map. Temporal ASF is the variations due to temporal characteristics, and are transmitted from a dLORAN site to a receiver via LDC. Unlike nominal ASF that is obtained by long-term measurement (over 1 year), temporal ASF changes in a short period of time, and ideally, real-time correction needs to be performed. However, it is difficult to perform real-time correction due to the limit of the transmission rate of the LDC for transmitting correction values. In this paper, to determine temporal ASF correction frequency that shows satisfactory performance within the range of the limit of data transmission rates, relative variations of temporal ASF in summer and winter were measured, and the stability of correction values was analyzed using the average of temporal ASF for a certain period.

영산강유역의 면적우량감소계수 산정 (Estimation of Areal Reduction Factors for the Youngsan River Basin)

  • 이재형;고원준;이윤영;김대근
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제39권10호
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    • pp.813-822
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    • 2006
  • 영산강유역에 위치한 우량관측소의 동시간대의 우량자료를 이용하여 영산강유역의 강우특성을 반영한 면적우량감소계수를 산정하였다. 영산강유역에 대하여 산정한 면적우량감소계수를 한강유역을 대상으로 산정한 면적우량감소 계수와 비교한 결과, 유역면적의 증가에 따른 면적우량감소계수의 감소폭이 전반적으로 작게 나타났으며 특히 단기간 지속시간 강우에 대해서 면적우량감소계수의 감소폭이 작게 나타났다. 이는 한강유역과 영산강유역의 유역규모 차이와 지형학적 특성의 차이로 인해 영산강유역에서 발생한 호우의 특성이 한강유역에 비해 지역별 변동성이 상대적으로 작음을 의미한다.

ON THE COMPLEX VARIABILITY OF THE SUPERORBITAL MODULATION PERIOD OF LMC X-4

  • HU, CHIN-PING;LIN, CHING-PING;CHOU, YI;YANG, TING-CHANG;SU, YI-HAO;HSIEH, HUNG-EN;CHUANG, PO-SHENG;LIAO, NAI-HUI
    • 천문학논총
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.595-597
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    • 2015
  • LMC X-4 is an eclipsing high-mass X-ray binary exhibiting a superorbital modulation with a period of ~ 30:5 days. We present a detailed study of the variations of the superorbital modulation period with a time baseline of ~ 18 years. The period determined in the light curve collected by the Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) significantly deviates from that observed by the All Sky Monitor (ASM) onboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). Using the data collected by RXTE/ASM, MAXI, and the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) onboard Swift, we found a significant period derivative, $\dot{P}=(2.08{\pm}0.12){\times}10^{-5}$. Furthermore, the O{C residual shows complex short-term variations indicating that the superorbital modulation of LMC X-4 exhibits complicated unstable behaviors. In addition, we used archive data collected by the Proportional Counter Array (PCA) on RXTE to estimate the orbital and spin parameters. The detected pulse frequencies obtained in small time segments were fitted with a circular orbital Doppler shift model. In addition to orbital parameters and spin frequency for each observation, we found a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{v}=(6.482{\pm}0.011){\times}10^{-13}Hz{\cdot}s^{-1}$. More precise orbital and spin parameters will be evaluated by the pulse arrival time delay technique in the future.

시간축 및 요일축 정보를 이용한 신경회로망 기반의 계통한계가격 예측 (A System Marginal Price Forecasting Method Based on an Artificial Neural Network Using Time and Day Information)

  • 이정규;신중린;박종배
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제54권3호
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    • pp.144-151
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a forecasting technique of the short-term marginal price (SMP) using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The SW forecasting is a very important element in an electricity market for the optimal biddings of market participants as well as for market stabilization of regulatory bodies. Input data are organized in two different approaches, time-axis and day-axis approaches, and the resulting patterns are used to train the ANN. Performances of the two approaches are compared and the better estimate is selected by a composition rule to forecast the SMP. By combining the two approaches, the proposed composition technique reflects the characteristics of hourly, daily and seasonal variations, as well as the condition of sudden changes in the spot market, and thus improves the accuracy of forecasting. The proposed method is applied to the historical real-world data from the Korea Power Exchange (KPX) to verify the effectiveness of the technique.