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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Length of Stay in Children(Aged 0 to 12) with Injuries: Centering Around the Data from the Korea National Hospital Discharge In-Depth Injury Surveys (어린이(0-12세) 손상환자의 재원일수에 미치는 요인분석: 퇴원손상심층자료를 중심으로)

  • Lee Chae Kyung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to analyze factors affecting the length of stay in children with injuries by determining relationships between length of stay and characteristics of children(aged 0 to 12) with injuries. 7,804 patients aged 0 to 12 who participated in the Korea Nation Hospital Discharge In-Depth Injury Surveys, got a diagnosis of sequelae of injuries and of other consequences of external causes(S00-T98), and were discharged between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020 were investigated. A frequency analysis, independent samples t-test, and ANOVA were performed. Also, to identify factors affecting the length of stay, a regression analysis was performed. The average length of stay for the patients investigated in this study was 5.5 days. The length of stay for school-age children(aged 7 to 12) and children who had either public or private coverage was higher than that for preschoolers(aged 0 to 6) and children who didn't have public or private coverage, respectively. The length of stay for children admitted to a hospital in a rural area(Jeolla-do or Gyeongsang-do) was higher than that for children admitted to a hospital in a metropolitan area and the length of stay for children admitted to a hospital that had 100-299 hospital beds was relatively long. However, children who first visited a hospital for outpatient care stayed relatively short in hospital and children who had been burned or injured in traffic crashes stayed relatively long in hospital. Children who got a secondary diagnosis and had a principal procedure or who died after being discharged were in hospital for a long time. The findings of this study shall be useful, as they identified characteristics related to the length of stay for Korean children with injuries and factors that determine the length of stay for those children by analyzing the national dataset, or more specifically, the data from the Korea National Hospital Discharge In-Depth Injury Surveys. The risk of child injuries can be easily reduced by taking actions to prevent them and providing safety education programs. The present study has provided essential baseline data for the provision of aggressive care for child injuries and the establishment of a range of policies for child injury prevention.