• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1975-1988
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• 2019

Short-term traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in areas such as transportation management, traffic control and guidance. For short-term traffic flow regression predictions, the main challenge stems from the non-stationary property of traffic flow data. In this paper, we design an ensemble cascading prediction framework based on extremely randomized trees (extra-trees) using a boosting technique called EET to predict the short-term traffic flow under non-stationary environments. Extra-trees is a tree-based ensemble method. It essentially consists of strongly randomizing both the attribute and cut-point choices while splitting a tree node. This mechanism reduces the variance of the model and is, therefore, more suitable for traffic flow regression prediction in non-stationary environments. Moreover, the extra-trees algorithm uses boosting ensemble technique averaging to improve the predictive accuracy and control overfitting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that extra-trees have been used as fundamental building blocks in boosting committee machines. The proposed approach involves predicting 5 min in advance using real-time traffic flow data in the context of inherently considering temporal and spatial correlations. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and lower variance and computational complexity when compared to the existing methods.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.259-266
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• 2017

The massive traffic interferences in the wireless home IoT provides the reason for packet losses, and it degrades the QoS (Quality of Service) and throughput on the home network. This paper propose a new adaptive traffic interference control system, ATICS, for enhancing QoS and throughput for IoT services as detecting a traffic process and non-traffic process in the wireless home network. The proposed system control the traffic interferences as distinguishing the short-term traffic process and long-term traffic process by traffic characteristics in wireless home networks. The simulation results shows that the proposed scheme have more efficient traffic control performance than the other schemes.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.76-83
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• 2020

Postal logistics organizations are characterized as having high labor intensity and short response times. These characteristics, along with rapid change in mail volume, make load scheduling a fundamental concern. Load analysis of major postal infrastructures such as post offices, sorting centers, exchange centers, and delivery stations is required for optimal postal logistics operation. In particular, the performance of mail traffic forecasting is essential for optimizing the resource operation by accurate load analysis. This paper addresses a traffic forecast problem of postal parcel that arises at delivery stations of Korea Post. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a method for predicting short-term traffic of postal parcel based on self-similarity analysis and to introduce an application of the traffic prediction model to postal logistics system. The proposed scheme develops multiple regression models by the clusters resulted from feature engineering and individual models for delivery stations to reinforce prediction accuracy. The experiment with data supplied by main postal delivery stations shows the advantage in terms of prediction performance. Comparing with other technique, experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy up to 45.8%.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.109-114
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• 2016

PURPOSES : The demand for extending national highways is increasing, but traffic monitoring is hindered because of resource limitations. Hence, this study classified highway segments into 5 types to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count planning. METHODS : The traffic volume trends of 880 highway segments were classified through R-squared and linear regression analyses; the steadiness of traffic volume trends was evaluated through coefficient of variance (COV), and the normality of the data were determined through the Shapiro-Wilk W-test. RESULTS : Of the 880 segments, 574 segments had relatively low COV and were classified as type 1 segments, and 123 and 64 segments with increasing and decreasing traffic volume trends were classified as type 2 and type 3 segments, respectively; 80 segments that failed the normality test were classified as type 4, and the remaining 39 were classified as type 5 segments. CONCLUSIONS : A theoretical basis for biennial count planning was established. Biennial count is recommended for types 1~4 because their mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) are approximately 10%. For type 5 (MAPE =19.26%), the conventional annual count can be continued. The results of this analysis can reduce the traffic monitoring budget.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.135-141
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• 2015

PURPOSES: This study has been conducted to determine a homogeneous segment and integration to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count. We have also attempted to reduce the traffic monitoring budget. METHODS: Based on the statistical approach, a homogeneous segment in the same road section is determined. Statistical analysis using t-test, mean difference, and correlation coefficient are carried out for 10-year-long (2004-2013) short-term count traffic data and the MAPE of fresh data (2014) are evaluated. The correlation coefficient represents a trend in traffic count, while the mean difference and t-score represent an average traffic count. RESULTS : The statistical analysis suggests that the number of target segments varies with the criteria. The correlation coefficient of more than 30% of the adjacent segment is higher than 0.8. A mean difference of 36.2% and t-score of 19.5% for adjacent segments are below 20% and 2.8, respectively. According to the effectiveness analysis, the integration criteria of the mean difference have a higher effect as compared to the t-score criteria. Thus, the mean difference represents a traffic volume similarity. CONCLUSIONS : The integration of 47 road segments from 882 adjacent road segments indicate 8.87% of MAPE, which is within an acceptable range. It can reduce the traffic monitoring budget and increase the count to improve an accuracy of traffic volume estimation.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.719-728
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• 2022

The prediction of short-term traffic flow is the theoretical basis of intelligent transportation as well as the key technology in traffic flow induction systems. The research on short-term traffic flow prediction has showed the considerable social value. At present, the support vector regression (SVR) intelligent prediction model that is suitable for small samples has been applied in this domain. Aiming at parameter selection difficulty and prediction accuracy improvement, the artificial bee colony (ABC) is adopted in optimizing SVR parameters, which is referred to as the ABC-SVR algorithm in the paper. The simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with SVR algorithm, and the feasibility of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is verified by result analysis. Continuously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with particle swarm optimization SVR (PSO-SVR) algorithm and genetic optimization SVR (GA-SVR) algorithm, and a better optimization effect has been attained by simulation experiments and verified by statistical test. Simultaneously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm and wavelet neural network time series (WNN-TS) algorithm, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is improved and satisfactory prediction effects have been obtained.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.3D
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• pp.205-212
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• 2012

The national highway traffic counts system consists of short duration counts and continuous counts. Unlike continuous counts, short duration counts are performed by collection of a few days period and thus, the magnitude of deviation of collected data from AADT varies depending upon when data collection takes place. Therefore, this study was done to find out the best months and days of data collection of each highway classification in order to enhance the accuracy of AADT estimation. Continuous counts, another type of the national traffic counts system, are performed by collection of 365-day period using a permanent traffic counter. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the number of days for which the counter malfunctions to a minimum in order to enhance the accuracy of data. However, from time to time the permanent traffic counter malfunctions due to various causes and thus, cannot collect data. Therefore, this study was done to find out whether the age of counter, the ratio of heavy vehicle volume to total traffic volume, etc. could be the direct causes of counter's malfunction based on the number of maintenance for a certain time period.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.171-176
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• 2007

To give a guarantee a consistently high level of quality and reliability of Telematics traffic service, traffic flow forecasting is very important issue. In this paper, we proposed an adaptable integrated prediction model to predict the traffic flow in the future. Our model combines two methods, short-term prediction model and long-term prediction model with different combining coefficients to reflect current traffic condition. Short-term model uses the Kalman filtering technique to predict the future traffic conditions. And long-term model processes accumulated speed patterns which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classifying the same day and the same time interval. Combining two models makes it possible to predict future traffic flow with higher accuracy over a longer time range. Many experiments showed our algorithm gives a better precise prediction than only an accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.380-388
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• 2014

Annual average daily traffic(AADT) serves as important basic data in the transportation sector. AADT is used as design traffic which is the basic traffic volume in transportation planning. Despite of its importance, at most locations, AADT is estimated using short term traffic counts. An accurate AADT is calculated through permanent traffic counts at limited locations. This study dealt with estimating AADT using various models considering both the spatial correlation and time series data. Kriging models which are commonly used spatial statistics methods were applied and compared with each model. Additionally the External Universal kriging model, which includes explanatory variables, was used to assure accuracy of AADT estimation. For evaluation of various kriging methods, AADT estimation error, proposed using national highway permanent traffic count data, was analyzed and their performances were compared. The result shows the accuracy enhancement of the AADT estimation.