• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.115-136
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• 2020

This study aims to analyze the impact of China's iron ore imports and exports on the tramper freight rate of China. The import volume of iron ore in China, the export volume of steel products in China, and exogenous variables were used as independent variables. The dependent variables were BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14, BSI, S2, and S3. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted. The correlation analysis showed that China's iron ore imports were not related to the remaining BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, and S3, except for the C14 index. However, there was a positive correlation between the ship's space and international oil prices, and it was not related to China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The export volume of steel products was negatively correlated with BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, and international oil prices, and was not related to iron ore imports, ship space, and China's PMI. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's iron ore imports and exogenous variables, China's PMI was rejected within the hypothesis. However, the hypothesis on international oil prices and ship space was adopted. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's steel export volume and exogenous variables, the hypothesis on BDI and the S3 index was adopted, and the hypothesis on BSI and S2 was rejected. In the analysis results of this study, the ship space and oil prices were adopted in all the hypothesis results. Domestic companies participating in the tramper shipping market will need to be prepared through continuous monitoring of related indicators.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.