• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.23-46
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• 2017

Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.29-38
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• 2011

Since a distribution market was opened in 1993 after the conclusion of the Uruguay Round (UR), various new businesses emerged in the Korean retail industry, such as convenience shops, supermarkets, specialty stores, non-store marketing methods, and cyber shopping malls, in addition to traditional markets and department stores. Competition among these retail businesses has intensified. According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), the growth rate of the total retail industry has shown a 32% increase in the past 5 years. While department stores, supermarkets, specialty stores, and other non-store retailing venues have shown signs of stagnation at a growth rate of 20-30%, which is similar to the growth rate of the entire retail industry, convenience shops and non-store marketing have shown 60-70% growth over the same period. By comparison, the growth rate of cyber shopping malls has nearly tripled. When applying development aspects of retail businesses through the competition to the retail life cycle, mom-and-pop stores and traditional markets have already entered the decline phase as specialty stores reach their maturity phase and demonstrate their limit of growth. Department stores are now in the latter part of the growth phase, which is still considered to have some growth potential. Big super markets are still in the early part of their growth stage although they were introduced 20 years ago. Meanwhile, retail businesses such as convenience stores, supermarkets, mail order houses, and warehouse stores are entering the middle growth phase and are expected to continue with their quantitative growth. At a time when most retail businesses in Korea are in a state of development or in the full growth stage, what kind of new innovative retailing will appear and develop? Moreover, what growth engine will drive it? This study analyzes the appearance of innovative retailing and its development process by establishing a discussable consumer's choice model through the interlocking mutual behavior of differentiated competitiveness and consumers' choice based on an awareness of this issue. The analysis of the results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, if a new vacuum zone emerges at the retail market level, innovative retailing such as low price/low service or high price/high service will emerge simultaneously. Second, if the number of new businesses in the vacuum zone increases, this will create competitiveness among the businesses, and each retailer will develop raising of level. Third, if a new business that raises the level develops, competition between the new and the existing retailer will occur, and an assimilation process between the existing retailing and the new retailing will be unfolded. Fourth, each retailing will promote distribution innovations in order to break the frontier of the existing distribution technology, and other retailing will follow the innovator. On the basis of an analysis of the abovementioned results, this study presents the following three suggestions. First, responding to the consumer's decision-making process on the attributes of retail shops that promote differentiation in strategies, this study established a consumer's choice model that can be discussed in relation to changes in market share. Second, this study provided an analysis of the emerging and developmental processes of innovative retail businesses using a more precise logical structure on the basis of the consumer's choice model described in this study. Third, the development process of retail businesses discussed in this study presented retailing solutions regarding management aspects on how to compose a strong retail mix that can help retail businesses gain competitive advantages in the market.

• The Korean Journal of Malacology
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

The effects of different stocking densities on the growth and survival rate of the 3-year-old pacific abalone, Haliotis dicus hannai were investigated in marine net cage for a year. Stocking densities in net cage ($2.4{\times}1.2m$) was set 15, 30, 45 and 60 percentage (= per)/sq m (square meter, $m^2$) with share to cross-sectional area per shelter. The water temperature during the testing period was $8.2^{\circ}C-22.1^{\circ}C$, and salinity is $33.5{\pm}0.6psu$, and dissolved oxygen is $7.87{\pm}0.86mg/L$. In the shell length (initial size : $71.50{\pm}2.28mm$) growth and shell breadth (initial size : $46.43{\pm}2.28mm$) of the test abalones, the absolute growth rate (ARG), daily growth rate (DGR) and specific growth rates (SGR) of the 15 per/sq m and 30 per/sq m were higher than those of 45 per/sq m and 60 per/sq m density group (P < 0.05). Also in the weight (initial weight : $35.7{\pm}8.1g$), it showed the same results. In survival rates, it were that 15 per/sq m and 30 per/sq m is significantly higher than 45 per/sq m and 60 per/sq m. Therefore, it was that the 15 per/sq m is optimized stocking density in marine net cages about the 3-year-old pacific abalone over 70 mm size. The result shown that total cross-sectional area under the shelter is based on 15 per/sq m ($2.4{\times}2.4m$, 354 number in a net cage) is suitable for fast growth and survival. But if the economy consider, optimized stocking density would be appropriate to accept 30 per/sq m ($2.4{\times}2.4m$, 710 number in a net cage).

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.7
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• pp.554-564
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to assist farmers in determining the optimal time for the shipment of stored apples by investigating the market trends, storage status and release dates of low-temperature stored apples. We surveyed 300 apple cultivation farms in Daegu, Gyeongbuk Province, which is the main producer of apples, and examined the cultivars, cultivation areas, storage conditions, and shipment status of apples. The main results are as follows: the proportion of apples cultivatedat different ripening times was surveyed. According to the results, the proportions of early, middle and late varieties were 78.3%, 63.7% and 96.0%, respectively. Also, 48.7% of the farm households surveyed had cold storage facilities. The average storage cost per apple box(15kg) was 978.3 won for self-storage and 1,771.8 won for consignment storage. For the six(6) months between November and April, the proportion of shipped apples was 91.6% of the total stored apples. The (average total?)annual apple shipment, including apples stored in general storage warehouses, was 744.4 boxes. The (average total?) annual shipment of cold storage apples was 616 boxes. The stored apples were mainly shipped to 'wholesale markets', which have the highest sales share, followed by 'production site collectors' and then 'supermarkets'. The most common shipping method of the apples was by general trucks, followed by low-temperature trucks, and finally by delivery services. The analysis of the factors influencing the decision to release apples by period showed that it was affected by the storage cost, loss rate, and customary shipping in the off-season(from May to August). On the other hand, in the general release season(from November to April), the statistically significant decision factors for the release of apples were the future expected price, storage cost and decision of the leading farmer groups. For farmers with a high share of general shipment, the deciding factors for the release of apples were the future expected price, storage cost, high income expectation, and decision by leading farmers.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.21-53
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• 1989

In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.22
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• pp.137-165
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• 2007

It seems high time to increase productivity by adopting e-business to overcome challenges posed by both external factors including the appreciation of Korean won, oil hikes and fierce global competition and domestic issues represented by disparities between large corporations and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), Seoul metropolitan and local cities, and export and domestic demand all of which weaken future growth engines in the Korean economy. The demands of the globalization era are for innovative changes in businessprocess and industrial structure aiming for creating new values. To this end, e-business is expected to play a core role in the sophistication of the Korean economy through new values and innovation. In order to examine business performance in e-business-adopting industries, this study analyzed the home shopping industry by closely looking into the financial ratios including the ratio of net profit to sales, the ratio of operation income to sales, the ratio of gross cost to sales cost, the ratio of gross cost to selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense, and return of investment (ROI). This study, for best outcome, referred to corporate financial statements as a main resource to calculate financial ratios by utilizing Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System (DART) of the Financial Supervisory Service, one of the Korea's financial supervisory authorities. First of all, the result of the trend analysis on the ratio of net profit to sales is as following. CJ Home Shopping has registered a remarkable increase in its ratio of net profit rate to sales since 2002 while its competitors find it hard to catch up with CJ's stunning performances. This is partly due to the efficient management compared to CJ's value of capital. Such significance, if the current trend continues, will make the front-runner assume the largest market share. On the other hand, GS Home Shopping, despite its best organized system and largest value of capital among others, lacks efficiency in management. Second of all, the result of the trend analysis on the ratio of operation income to sales is as following. Both CJ Home Shopping and GS Home Shopping have, until 2004, recorded similar growth trend. However, while CJ Home Shopping's operating income continued to increase in 2005, GS Home Shopping observed its operating income declining which resulted in the increasing income gap with CJ Home Shopping. While CJ Home Shopping with the largest market share in home shopping industryis engaged in aggressive marketing, GS Home Shopping due to its stability-driven management strategies falls behind CJ again in the ratio of operation income to sales in spite of its favorable management environment including its large capital. Companies in the Group B were established in the same year of 2001. NS Home Shopping was the first in the Group B to shift its loss to profit. Woori Home Shopping has continued to post operating loss for three consecutive years and finally was sold to Lotte Group in 2007, but since then, has registered a continuing increase in net income on sales. Third of all, the result of the trend analysis on the ratio of gross cost to sales cost is as following. Since home shopping falls into sales business, its cost of sales is much lower than that of other types of business such as manufacturing industry. Since 2002 in gross costs including cost of sales, SG&A expense, and non-operating expense, cost of sales turned out to have remarkably decreased. Group B has also posted a notable decline in the same sector since 2002. Fourth of all, the result of the trend analysis on the ratio of gross cost to SG&A expense is as following. Due to its unique characteristics, the home shopping industry usually posts ahigh ratio of SG&A expense. However, more than 80% of SG&A expense means the result of lax management and at the same time, a sharp lower net income on sales than other industries. Last but not least, the result of the trend analysis on ROI is as following. As for CJ Home Shopping, the curve of ROI looks similar to that of its investment on fixed assets. As it turned out, the company's ratio of fixed assets to operating income skyrocketed in 2004 and 2005. As far as GS Home Shopping is concerned, its fixed assets are not as much as that of CJ Home Shopping. Consequently, competition in the home shopping industry, at the moment, is among CJ, GS, Hyundai, NS and Woori Home Shoppings, and all of them need to more thoroughly manage their costs. In order for the late-comers of Group B and other home shopping companies to advance further, the current lax management should be reformed particularly on their SG&A expense sector. Provided that the total sales volume in the Internet shopping sector is projected to grow over 20 trillion won by the year 2010, it is concluded that all the participants in the home shopping industry should put strategies on efficient management on costs and expenses as their top priority rather than increase revenues, if they hope to grow even further after 2007.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.33
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• pp.47-54
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• 2021

Purpose : In order to evaluate the usefulness of clinical application of the Pause & Resume methods by comparing and analyzing the data stability and dose reduction effect when repeat scan assuming irregular breathing and using the Pause & Resume method during chest 4D CT using Quasar^TM Phantom. Materials and Methods : Using the Quasar^TM Phantom, set the breathing rate per minute to 15 BPM and 7.5 BPM, and set the S15 point as an irregular breathing section, and then placed OSLD to this point and use the Pause & Resume method to measure the dose of S15. CTDIvol, DLP, and ALARA-CT were used for comparative analysis of radiation dose between Pause & Resume method and Repeat-scan. In order to evaluate the stability and usability of the data applying the Pause & Resume method, the captured images were sorted by Advanced Workstation Volume Share7 and then sent to Eclipse^TM, the diameter and volume were analyzed by forming a contour on the iron ball in the Quasar^TM Phantom Results : When using Pause & Resume, the dose of OSLD measurement increased by 1.97 times in the section of S15. As a result of image evaluation, the average value of all volumes measured with and without the Pause & Resume method at 15 BPM and 7.5 BPM was 15.2 cm3±0.5%.Allthemeasuredvaluesfor the radius of iron ball were 3.1 cm regardless of whether Pause & Resume method was used or not. In the case of using Pause & Resume, 33% decreased from the lowest DLP value and 38% decreased from the highest DLP value of repeat scan, and the effective dose also decreased 32.1% from the minimum value and 37.6% from the maximum value. Conclusion: Irradiation dose was increased by Pause & Resume method because of the repeat scan on the S15 site where assuming irregular breathing occurred, However Pause & Resume method led to a significant reduction in dose on overall scan range. It also proved the usefulness of clinical application of the Pause & Resume method as a result of similar diameters and volumes of iron ball measurement.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.13-24
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• 2020

In modern society, the number of one-person households is increasing significantly. In particular, one-person households have rapidly increased around local small and medium-sized cities. This study examines the characteristics of local small and medium-sized cities by factor and cluster analysis. Analysis of variance are applied to the characteristics of one-person household in different local cities to find the relationship between different types of cities and the characteristics of one-person households. As a result of the study, local small and medium-sized cities are classified into growth stagnation cities, industrial leading cities, regional base cities, and population outflow cities. It is also found that there are several different types of local cities based on the characteristics of one-person households. The growth stagnation city is a city where the regional economy is revitalized due to the development of regional industries in the past. One-person households have a small age group in their 30s and 40s, which are the basis of industrial activities. They have a high proportion of older generation living in more than three rooms in their homes. It is necessary to supply long-term public rental housing and share houses for older generation. The leading city of the industry is a city where the local economy is revitalized as workers are concentrated. One-person households are evenly distributed among all age groups, and the apartment occupancy rate is the highest compared to other types. It is necessary to provide happy housing for youth generation and reconstruction or renovation housing of manhood generation. The regional base city leads the regional base function and the regional economy, but it has reduced workers. Many of one-person households are younger than 30 years old and college educated. They are also high rate of unmarried and live at one room as rental houses. It is needed to expand the supply of small houses such as apartments, officetels and rented houses for youth generation. The population outflow city has a slow local economy and a rural residential environment. It is found that the households of one-person households have high rate of bereavement and the age. They live more than four rooms in single-family homes. It is necessary not only to provide welfare housing but also to create a sound residential environment where cultural exchange is possible.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.114-129
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• 2023

In the era of the 4th industrial revolution, the importance of the 4th industrial revolution technology is increasing in the service industry. The purpose of this study is to identify the development and utilization status of the 4th industrial revolution technology in the service industry and to derive the characteristics and implications of the 4th industrial revolution technology innovation in the service industry. In this study, research and analysis were conducted based on the business activity survey data in order to identify the technological innovation characteristics of the 4th industrial revolution in the service industry. The 4th industrial revolution technology in the service industry was analyzed in terms of company ratio, technology development and utilization rate, development/utilization technology, technology application field, and technology development method. In addition, the trend of the 4th industrial revolution technology change in the service industry was also analyzed. The 4th industrial revolution technology utilization and development status of other industries was compared and analyzed. In particular, the service industry 4th industrial revolution technology innovation type was divided into 4 types from the perspective of the 4th industrial revolution company ratio and the 4th industrial revolution company ratio growth rate, and types for each service industry were derived. The characteristics and implications of the 4th industrial revolution technology innovation in the service industry were presented from nine perspectives. As a result of the study, it was found that companies in the service industry were developing or using 4th industrial revolution technologies more actively than companies in other industries, and it was analyzed that the gap was further widening. By service industry, information and communication, finance and insurance, and educational service showed relatively high rates of developing or utilizing 4th industrial revolution technologies. The service industries in which the share of 4th industrial revolution companies increased the most were real estate, education service, health and social welfare service. In particular, cloud, big data, and artificial intelligence were analyzed as the three core technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. The service industry can be classified into 4 types in terms of the 4th industrial revolution company ratio and growth rate, and service industry innovation measures that reflect the differentiated innovation characteristics of each type are needed.