• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.538-545
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• 1999

Objective : To compare the predictive power of International Classification of Diseases 10th Edition(ICD-10) based International Classification of Diseases based Injury Severity Score(ICISS) with Trauma and Injury Severity Score(TRISS) and International Classification of Diseases 9th Edition Clinical Modification(ICD-9CM) based ICISS in the injury severity measure. Methods : ICD-10 version of Survival Risk Ratios(SRRs) was derived from 47,750 trauma patients from 35 Emergency Centers for 1 year. The predictive power of TRISS, the ICD-9CM based ICISS and ICD-10 based ICISS were compared in a group of 367 severely injured patients admitted to two university hospitals. The predictive power was compared by using the measures of discrimination(disparity, sensitivity, specificity, misclassification rates, and ROC curve analysis) and calibration(Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics), all calculated by logistic regression procedure. Results : ICD-10 based ICISS showed a lower performance than TRISS and ICD-9CM based ICISS. When age and Revised Trauma Score(RTS) were incorporated into the survival probability model, however, ICD-10 based ICISS full model showed a similar predictive power compared with TRISS and ICD-9CM based ICISS full model. ICD-10 based ICISS had some disadvantages in predicting outcomes among patients with intracranial injuries. However, such weakness was largely compensated by incorporating age and RTS in the model. Conclusions : The ICISS methodology can be extended to ICD-10 horizon as a standard injury severity measure in the place of TRISS, especially when age and RTS were incorporated in the model. In patients with intracranial injuries, the predictive power of ICD-10 based ICISS was relatively low because of differences in the classifying system between ICD-10 and ICD-9CM.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.2672-2679
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• 2012

The study was done to provide basic data of medical quality evaluation after developing the comorbidity disease mortality measurement modeled on the severity-adjustment method of AMI. This study analyzed 699,701 cases of Hospital Discharge Injury Data of 2005 and 2008, provided by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used logistic regression to compare the risk-adjustment model of the Charlson Comorbidity Index with the predictability and compatibility of our severity score model that is newly developed for calibration. The models severity method included age, sex, hospitalization path, PCI presence, CABG, and 12 variables of the comorbidity disease. Predictability of the newly developed severity models, which has statistical C level of 0.796(95%CI=0.771-0.821) is higher than Charlson Comorbidity Index. This proves that there are differences of mortality, prevalence rate by method of mortality model calibration. In the future, this study outcome should be utilized more to achieve an improvement of medical quality evaluation, and also models will be developed that are considered for clinical significance and statistical compatibility.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.10 no.8
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• pp.301-310
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• 2021

The TATI model is a Traffic Accident Text to RGB Image model, which is a methodology proposed in this paper for predicting the severity of traffic accidents. Traffic fatalities are decreasing every year, but they are among the low in the OECD members. Many studies have been conducted to reduce the death rate of traffic accidents, and among them, studies have been steadily conducted to reduce the incidence and mortality rate by predicting the severity of traffic accidents. In this regard, research has recently been active to predict the severity of traffic accidents by utilizing statistical models and deep learning models. In this paper, traffic accident dataset is converted to color images to predict the severity of traffic accidents, and this is done via CNN models. For performance comparison, we experiment that train the same data and compare the prediction results with the proposed model and other models. Through 10 experiments, we compare the accuracy and error range of four deep learning models. Experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed model was the highest at 0.85, and the second lowest error range at 0.03 was shown to confirm the superiority of the performance.

• Journal of muscle and joint health
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.7-25
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• 1998

Rheumatoid arthritis, unlike other chronic diseases, causes the patients to experience uncertainty in their daily lives and thus to feel threat on their emotional comfort because of inconsistent and unpredictable symptoms such as pain. Therefore, a theoretical framework is needed for explanation of uncertainty in patients having rheumatoid arthritis. A hypothetical model was constructed on the basis of Mishel's Uncertainty Theory and other literature review. The model included 9 theoretical concepts and 19 paths. Subjects of the study constituted 330 partients who visited outpatient clinics of two university hospitals and one general hospital in Seoul. Self report questionnaires were used to measure the variables affecting uncertainty. Reliability coefficients of these instruments were found Cronbach's Alpha=$.70{\sim}.94$. In data analysis, SAS program and PC-LISREL 8.03 computer program were utilized for descriptive statistics and covariance structure analysis. The results of covariance structure analysis for model fitness were as follows : 1) Hypothetical model showed a good fit to the empirical data : Chi-square($X^2$)=41.81 (df=11, P=.000), Goodness of Fit Index=.974, Root Mean Square Residual=.049, Normed Fit Index=.928, Non Normed Fit Index=.814. 2) For the validity and the parcimony of model, a modified model was constructed by appending 2 paths and deleting 5 paths according to the criteria of statistical significance and meaningfulness. 3) The results of hypothesis testing were as follows : (1) Educational level, event familiarity and severity of illness had a direct effect on uncertainty : Event congruency had both direct and indirect effect on uncertainty : Credible authority and symptom consistency had a nonsignificant direct effect on uncertainty, (2) Illness duration, symptom consistency, and event congruency had a direct effect on severity of illness ; Credible authority had a both direct and indirect effect on severity of illness ; Event congruency had the greatest effect on severity of illness, and event familiarity had a nonsignificant direct effect on severity of illness.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1233-1250
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• 2016

Cracks in plate-like structures are some of the main reasons for destruction of the entire structure. In this study, a novel two-stage methodology is proposed for damage detection of flexural plates using an optimized artificial neural network. In the first stage, location of damages in plates is investigated using curvature-moment and curvature-moment derivative concepts. After detecting the damaged areas, the equations for damage severity detection are solved via Bat Algorithm (BA). In the second stage, in order to efficiently reduce the computational cost of model updating during the optimization process of damage severity detection, multiple damage location assurance criterion index based on the frequency change vector of structures are evaluated using properly trained cascade feed-forward neural network (CFNN) as a surrogate model. In order to achieve the most generalized neural network as a surrogate model, its structure is optimized using binary version of BA. To validate this proposed solution method, two examples are presented. The results indicate that after determining the damage location based on curvature-moment derivative concept, the proposed solution method for damage severity detection leads to significant reduction of computational time compared with direct finite element method. Furthermore, integrating BA with the efficient approximation mechanism of finite element model, maintains the acceptable accuracy of damage severity detection.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.1213-1224
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• 2021

Objective: To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. Materials and Methods: Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. Results: Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone (p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone (p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables (p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. Conclusion: CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.

• Archives of Craniofacial Surgery
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.294-300
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• 2020

Background: Mandibular fractures are one of the most common types of facial fractures, the treatment of which can be delayed due to the severity of the trauma resulting in an increase of complications; thus, early evaluation of trauma severity at the time of visit is important. In South Korea, trauma patients are triaged and intensively treated in designated regional trauma centers. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between trauma severity and mandibular fracture patterns. Methods: A medical records review was performed on patients who visited the regional trauma center at our hospital for mandibular fracture between 2009 and 2018. Epidemiologic data and mandibular fracture patterns were analyzed and compared with the conventional facial injury severity scale (FISS). Results: Among 73 patients, 51 were classified as non-severe trauma patients and 22 as severe trauma patients. A higher trauma severity was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.164; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.057-1.404) and lower risk was associated with fractures located in the angle (OR, 0.001; 95% CI, 0-0.022), condylar process (OR, 0.001; 95% CI, 0-0.28), and coronoid process (OR, 0.004; 95% CI, 0-0.985). The risk was lower when the injury mechanism was a pedestrian traffic accident (OR, 0.004; 95% CI, 0-0.417) or fall (OR, 0.004; 95% CI, 0-0.663) compared with an in-car traffic accident. Higher FISS (OR, 1.503; 95% CI, 1.155-2.049) was associated with a higher trauma severity. The proposed model was found to predict the trauma severity better than the model using FISS (p< 0.001). Conclusion: Age, location of mandibular fractures, and injury mechanism showed significant relationships with the trauma severity. Epidemiologic data and patterns of mandibular fractures could predict the trauma severity better than FISS.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.84-89
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• 2013

The main causes of traffic accidents can be classified by 3 factors - human error, vehicle deficiency and road environmental problem and most accidents occurs not only 1 factor but combination of 2 or 3-factors. Among these factors, road environmental factor is the most important factor due to influence the behavior of cars and road users and road environmental factor affects 30% of total accidents approximately. The 5 years traffic accidents data analyzed to verify the accidents severity on Korea National Highways. In order to analyze the severity, Ordered Probit Model was used. As a independent variables of this model the number of lane, neighbor road environments, sight distance, vertical grade, lane width, shoulder width and traffic volume were used and as a dependent variables the minor injuries, serious injuries and fatalities were used. Research results shows that sight distance and lane width are identified as significant factors for the traffic accident severity and lesser sight distance and lane width shows greater traffic accident severity.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.111-118
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• 2014

PURPOSES: The purposes are to analyze the pedestrian accident severity and to develop the accident models by arterial road function. METHODS: To analyze the accident, count data and ordered logit models are utilized in this study. In pursuing the above, this study uses pedestrian accident data from 2007 to 2011 in Cheongju. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, daytime, Tue.Wed.Thu., over-speeding, male pedestrian over 65 old are selected as the independent variables to increase pedestrian accident severity. Second, as the accident models of main and minor arterial roads, the negative binomial models are developed, which are analyzed to be statistically significant. Third, such the main variables related to pedestrian accidents as traffic and pedestrian volume, road width, number of exit/entry are adopted in the models. Finally, Such the policy guidelines as the installation of pedestrian fence, speed hump and crosswalks with pedestrian refuge area, designated pedestrian zone, and others are suggested for accident reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study analyzed the pedestrian accident severity, and developed the negative binomial accident models. The results of this study expected to give some implications to the pedestrian safety improvement in Cheongju.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2019

Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.