• IE interfaces
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.400-410
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• 2003

Most of the demand forecasting which have been studied is about long-term time series over 15 years demand forecasting. In this paper, we set up the most optimal ARIMA model for the short-term time series demand forecasting and suggest demand forecasting system for short-term time series by appraising suitability and predictability. We are going to use the univariate ARIMA model in parallel with the bivariate transfer function model to improve the accuracy of forecasting. We also analyze the effect of advertisement cost, scale of branch stores, and number of clerk on the establishment of marketing policy by applying statistical methods. After then we are going to show you customer's needs, which are number of buying products. We have applied this method to forecast the annual sales of refrigerator in four branch stores of A company.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.2254-2263
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• 2000

This paper proposes an efficient predictive image-compression technique based on vector quantization of blocks of pels. In the proposed method edge contents of blocks control the selection of predictors and block shapes as well. The maximum number of bits assigned to quantizers has been in creased to 3bits/pel from 1/5bits/pel, the setting employed by forerunners in predictive vector quantization of images. This increase prevents the saturation in SNR observed in their results in high bit rates. The variable block shape is instrumental in eh reconstruction of edges. The adaptive procedure is controlled by means of he standard deviation ofp rediction errors generated by a default predictor; the standard deviation address a decision table which can be set up beforehand. eh proposed method is characterized by overall improvements in image quality over A-VQ-PE and A-DCT VQ, both of which are known for their efficient use of vector quantizers.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.295-299
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• 2001

To protect the flooding damages in Medium and Small watershed, it needs to set up flood warning system and develope Flood forecasting Model in real-time basis for medium and small watershed. In this study, it was able to minimize the error range between forecasted flood inflow and actual flood inflow, and forecast accurately the flood discharge some hours in advance by using simplex method recursively for the determination of the best parameters of RETFLO model. The result of RETFLO performance applied to several storm of Yugu river during 3 past years was very good with relative errors of 10% for comparison of total runoff volume and with one hour delayed peak time.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.41-54
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• 1992

The purpose of this thesis is to construct a model to estimate the delay that vehicles arriving randomly will be experienced at an isolated singalized intersection. To do this the following objectives are set in this study: (i) An what distance a random arrival pattern occurs after a platoon of vehicles are dis-charged from the stop line; (ii) A model which estimates the average delay per through-vehicle with respect to the de-gree of saturation; and (iii) The relation between the stepped delay and average approach delay per vehicle. The following are the findings of this study: (i) A random arrival pattern on the first second and third lanes occur 300,400 and 300m downstream from stop line rdspectively. A random arrival pattern on lane group occurs 500m downstream from the stop line ; (ii) A model for the estimation of approach delay has been developed in such a way that up to x=0.7 the delay increases linearly and beyond 0.7 the delay increases rapidly in a form of second order polynomial due to high degree of saturation : and (iii) Approach delay equals approximately 1.21 times of stopped delay.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.56-60
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• 2016

Precise prediction and control of the strip profile is crucial for automatic process set-up and operation of a hot strip mill. In the current study, we present the effect of post-deformation on the steady-state strip profile. The process was simulated by a 3-D elastic-plastic finite element (FE) analysis. Comparisons are made between the strip profile measured at the roll exit and the steady-state strip profile. The results raised an issue with regard to the importance of taking into account the effect of post-deformation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.1945-1950
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• 2000

When one build a building that posses Precison production process to be sensitive to vibration and SMD to procuce a large dynamic force, how do one predict & answer vibration control problem at building structure design at first stage, That is a question. It has tried to predict dynamic response and establish answering about global or local dynamic problem in building using experimental and analysis method. One of such a try, it be proposed Semi-Empirial Method that reduce error element of input information about dynamic analysis using dynamic experimental study and measurement data in the basis of real-structure. In this paper, the dynamic response problem about RC-structure building that will be set-up SMD produce large transient dynamic force using Semi-Empirical Method.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.24 no.9 s.180
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• pp.2292-2301
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• 2000

We propose an accurate and efficient estimation method of transverse shear stresses for analysis and design of laminated composite structures by 4-node quadrilateral degenerated shell elements. To get proper distributions of transverse shear stresses in each layer, we use 3-dimensional equilibrium equations instead of constitutive equations with shear correction factors which vary diversely according to the shapes of shell sections. Three dimensional equilibrium equations are integrated through the thickness direction with complete polynomial membrane stress fields, which are recovered by REP (Recovery by Equilibrium in Patches) recovery method. The 4-node quadrilateral degenerated shell element used in this paper has drilling degrees of freedom and shear stresses derived from assumed strain fields that are set up at natural coordinate systems. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed estimation method attains reasonable accuracy and efficiency compared with other methods and FE analysis using 4-node degenerated shell elements.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.482-488
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• 1997

New carbon equivalent equation for the better prediction for the better prediction of roll force in a continuous hot strip mill has been formulated by applying a neural network method. In predicting roll force of steel strip, carbon equivalent equation which normalize the effects of various alloying elements by a carbon equivalent content is very critical for the accurate prediction of roll force. To overcome the complex relationships between alloying elements and operational variables such as temperature, strain, strain rate and so forth, a neural network method which is effective for multi-variable analysis was adopted in the present work as a tool to determine a proper carbon equivalent equation. The application of newly formulated carbon equivalent equation has increased prediction accuracy of roll force significantly and the effectiveness of neural network method is well confirmed in this study.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.527-533
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• 2005

Recently reservoir is polluted by concentrative development of urbanization. Accordingly, the prediction of water quality has import meaning for protecting of water quality pollution. This study was carried out to predict water quality of Gyung Cheon reservoir by WASP5. We have established an integrated system on the basis of web, which predicts the future quality of water through water quality model, WASP5 based on information of water environment in a reservoir for agriculture, uniting expert system which supports the determination to set up measures for improving the quality of water to cope with the result.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.2385-2394
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• 1992

Granular solid propellants having energy and fast burning rate produce great thrusts within extremely short time intervals. Thus numerical researchs prevailed rather than experimental. Using a 2-phase fluid dynamics model among 1-dimensional 2-phase models, a numerical program was set up to describe reacting flow fields, moving boundary with oscillating pressure waves and constitutive laws research. It deserves special emphasis that correlations of convective heat transfer coefficient and viscous drag force among constitutive laws are tested and discussed because slight variations of their constants make a large influence on their results. In this calculations, some of correlations make the large difference in results. Therefore constitutive laws for convective heat transfer coefficient and viscous drag force need more considerations with experiments.