• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity method

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Effects of FK224, a $NK_1$ and $NK_2$ Receptor Antagonist, on Plasma Extravasation of Neurogenic Inflammation in Rat Airways (미주 신경의 전기적 자극으로 유발된 백서의 기도내 혈장 유출에 대한 FK224의 효과)

  • Shim, Jae-Jeong;Lee, Sang-Yeub;Lee, Sang-Hwa;Park, Sang-Myun;Seo, Jeong-Kyung;Cho, Jae-Yun;In, Kwang-Ho;Yoo, Se-Hwa;Kang, Kyung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.744-751
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    • 1995
  • Background: Asthma is an inflammatory disease because there are many inflammatory changes in the asthmatic airways. Axon reflex mechanisms may be involved in the pathogenesis of asthma. Sensory neuropeptides are involved in this inflammation, which is defined as neurogenic inflammation. Substance p, neurokinin A, and neurokinin B may be main neuropeptides of neurogenic inflammation in airways. These tachykinins act on neurokinin receptors. Three types of neurokinin receptors, such as $NK_1$, $NK_2$, and $NK_3$, are currently recognized, at which substance p, neurokinin A, and neurokinin B may be the most relevant natural agonist of neurogenic inflammation in airways. The receptor subtypes present in several tissues have been characterized on the basis of differential sensitivity to substance p, neurokinin A, and neurokinin B. Plasma extravasation and vasodilation are induced by substance p more potently than by neurokinin A, indicating NK1 receptors on endothelial cells mediate the response. But airway contraction is induced by neurokinin A more potently than by substance P, indicating the $NK_2$ receptors in airway smooth muscles. These receptors are used to evaluate the pathogenesis of brochial asthma. FK224 was identified from the fermentation products of Streptomyces violaceoniger. FK224 is a dual antagonist of both $NK_1$ and $NK_2$ receptors. Purpose: For a study of pathogenesis of bronchial asthma, the effect of FK224 on plasma extravasation induced by vagal NANC electrical stimulation was evaluated in rat airway. Method: Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 180~450gm were anesthetized by i.p. injection of urethane. Plasma extravasation was induced by electrical stimulation of cervical vagus NANC nerves with 5Hz, 1mA, and 5V for 2 minutes(NANC2 group) and for sham operation without nerve stimulation(control group). To evaluate the effect of FK224 on plasma extravasation in neurogenic inflammation, FK224(1mg/kg, Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co., dissolved in dimethylsulphoxide; DMSO, Sigma Co.) was injected 1 min before nerve stimulation(FK224 group). To assess plasma exudation, Evans blue dye(20mg/kg, dissolved in saline) was used as a plasma marker and was injected before nerve stimulation. After removal of intravascular dye, the evans blue dye in the tissue was extracted in formamide($37^{\circ}C$, 24h) and quantified spectrophotometrically by measuring dye absorbance at 629nm wavelength. Tissue dye content was expressed as ng of dye per mg of wet weight tissue. The amount of plasma extravasation was measured on the part of airways in each groups. Results: 1) Vagus nerve(NANC) stimulation significantly increased plasma leakage in trachea, main bronchus, and peripheral bronchus compared with control group, $14.1{\pm}1.6$ to $49.7{\pm}2.5$, $17.5{\pm}2.0$ to $38.7{\pm}2.8$, and $12.7{\pm}2.2$ to $19.1{\pm}1.6ng$ of dye per mg of tissue(mean ${\pm}$ SE), respectively(p<0.05). But there was not significantly changed in lung parenchyma(p>0.05) 2) FK224 had significant inhibitory effect upon vagal nerve stimulation-induced airway plasma leakage in any airway tissues of rat,such as trachea, main bronchus, and peripheral bronchus compared with vagus nerve stimulation group, 49%, 58%, and 70%, respectively(p<0.05). Inhibitory effect of FK224 on airway plasma leakage in neurogenic inflammation was revealed the more significant in peripheral bronchus, but no significant in lung parenchyma. Conclusion: These results suggest that FK224 is a selective NK receptor antagonist which effectively inhibits airway plasma leakage induced by the endogenous neurotransmitters relased by neurogenic inflammation in rat airway. Tachykinin receptor antagonists may be useful in the treatment of brochial asthma.

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The Effect of External PEEP on Work of Breathing in Patients with Auto-PEEP (Auto-PEEP이 존재하는 환자에서 호흡 일에 대한 External PEEP의 효과)

  • Chin, Jae-Yong;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Park, Pyung-Whan;Choi, Jong-Moo;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 1996
  • Background : Auto-PEEP which develops when expiratory lung emptying is not finished until the beginning of next inspiration is frequently found in patients on mechanical ventilation. Its presence imposes increased risk of barotrauma and hypotension, as well as increased work of breathing (WOB) by adding inspiratory threshold load and/or adversely affecting to inspiratory trigger sensitivity. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship of auto-PEEP with WOB and to evaluate the effect of PEEP applied by ventilator (external PEEP) on WOB in patients with auto-PEEP. Method : 15 patients, who required mechanical ventilation for management of acute respiratory failure, were studied. First, the differences in WOB and other indices of respiratory mechanics were examined between 7 patients with auto-PEEP and 8 patients without auto-PEEP. Then, we applied the 3 cm $H_2O$ of external PEEP to patients with auto-PEEP and evaluated its effects on lung mechanics as well as WOB. Indices of respiratory mechanics including tidal volume ($V_T$), repiratory rate, minute ventilation ($V_E$), peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR), peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR), peak inspiratory pressure (PIP), $T_I/T_{TOT}$, auto-PEEP, dynamic compliance of lung (Cdyn), expiratory airway resistance (RAWe), mean airway resistance (RAWm), $p_{0.1}$, work of breathing performed by patient (WOB), and pressure-time product (PTP) were obtained by CP-100 Pulmonary Monitor (Bicore, USA). The values were expressed as mean $\pm$ SEM (standard error of mean). Results : 1) Comparison of WOB and other indices of respiratory mechanics in patients with and without auto-PEEP : There was significant increase in WOB ($l.71{\pm}0.24$ vs $0.50{\pm}0.19\;J/L$, p=0.007), PTP ($317{\pm}70$ vs $98{\pm}36\;cm$ $H_2O{\cdot}sec/min$, p=0.023), RAWe ($35.6{\pm}5.7$ vs $18.2{\pm}2.3\;cm$ H2O/L/sec, p=0.023), RAWm ($28.8{\pm}2.5$ vs $11.9{\pm}2.0cm$ H2O/L/sec, p=0.001) and $P_{0.1}$ ($6.2{\pm}1.0$ vs 2.9+0.6 cm H2O, p=0.021) in patients with auto-PEEP compared to patients without auto-PEEP. The differences of other indices including $V_T$, PEFR, $V_E$ and $T_I/T_{TOT}$ showed no significance. 2) Effect of 3 cm $H_2O$ external PEEP on respiratory mechanics in patients with auto-PEEP : When 3 cm $H_2O$ of external PEEP was applied, there were significant decrease in WOB ($1.71{\pm}0.24$ vs $1.20{\pm}0.21\;J/L$, p=0.021) and PTP ($317{\pm}70$ vs $231{\pm}55\;cm$ $H_2O{\cdot}sec/min$, p=0.038). RAWm showed a tendency to decrease ($28.8{\pm}2.5$ vs $23.9{\pm}2.1\;cm$ $H_2O$, p=0.051). But PIP was increased with application of 3 cm $H_2O$ of external PEEP ($16{\pm}2$ vs $22{\pm}3\;cm$ $H_2O$, p=0.008). $V_T$, $V_E$, PEFR, $T_I/T_{TOT}$ and Cdyn did not change significantly. Conclusion : The presence of auto-PEEP in mechanically ventilated patients was accompanied with increased WOB performed by patient, and this WOB was decreased by 3 cm $H_2O$ of externally applied PEEP. But, with 3 cm $H_2O$ of external PEEP, increased PIP was noted, implying the importance of close monitoring of the airway pressure during application of external PEEP.

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The Significance of IL-10, IL-12, IFN-$\gamma$ and ADA in Tuberculous Pleural Fluid (결핵성 흉수에서 IL-10, IL-12, IFN-$\gamma$, ADA 측정의 의의)

  • Jeon, Doo-Soo;Yun, Sang-Myung;Park, Sam-Seok;Lee, Hyo-Jin;Kim, Yun-Seong;Lee, Min-Ki;Park, Soon-Kew
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 1998
  • Background: Cell mediated immune response mediated by interaction between CD4+ T lymphocytes and macrophagies is thought to play an important role in tuberculous pleurisy. This interaction is dependent on the interplay of various cytokines. The immunologic response of tuberculous pleurisy is thought to depend on the balance between helper T cell(Th1) cytokine Interleukin-12, Interferon gamma and Th2 cytokine IL-4, IL-10. To understand immunologic mechanism in tuberculous pleurisy and evaluate diagnostic value of these cytokines, the concentrations of Th1 cytokine IL-12, IFN -$\gamma$ and Th2 cytokine IL-10 were measured in tuberculous pleurisy and malignant pleural effusion group. Material and Methods: The concentrations of IL-10, IL-12 and IFN-$\gamma$ were measured by ELISA method in pleural fluids and serums of 20 patients with tuberculous pleurisy and 20 patients with malignant pleural effusion ADA activities were measured by spetrophotomery in pleural fluids of both groups. Results: In tuberculous pleurisy, the mean concentrations of IL-10, IL-12 and IFN-$\gamma$ of pleural fluids showed $121.3{\pm}83.7$ pg/mL, $571.4{\pm}472.7$ pg/mL and $420.4{\pm}285.9$ pg/mL. These were significantly higher than that of serum, $21.2{\pm}60.9$ pg/mL, 194.5 pg/mL, $30.1{\pm}18.3$ pg/mL respectively(p< 0.01). In malignant pleural effusion, the mean concentrations of IL-10, IL-12 and IFN-$\gamma$ of pleural fluids showed $88.4{\pm}40.4$ pg/mL, $306.5{\pm}271.1$ pg/mL and $30.5{\pm}54.8$ pg/mL respectively. Compared with that of serum ($43.4{\pm}67.2$ pg/mL, $206.8{\pm}160.6$ pg/mL, $14.6{\pm}3.3$ pg/mL), only IL-10 was significantly higher (p<0.001), but IL-12, IFN-$\gamma$ were not significant. In tuberculous pleural effusion compared with malignant pleural effusion, the concentration of IL-12, IFN-$\gamma$, ADA were significantly higher (p=value 0.046, <0.001, <0.001), but IL-10 was not significant. For differential diagnosis of tuberculous pleurisy from malignant pleural effusion, using cut-off value of IL-12, IFN-$\gamma$, ADA as 300 pg/mL. 100 pg/mL, 45 U/L, the sensitivity/specificity were 60%/70%, 90%/87.5%, 85%/90% respectively. Conclusion: In tuberculous pleurisy, IL-10, IL-12 and IFN-$\gamma$ were selectively concentrated highly in pleural space than serum. Compared with malignant pleural effusion, IL-12 and IFN-$\gamma$ were significantly higher, but IL-10 were not in tuberculous pleural effusion. The results suggest that Th1 pathway contributes to immune resistant mechanism in tuberculous pleurisy. IFN-$\gamma$ and ADA revealed useful methods of differential diagnosis in tuberculous pleurisy from malignant pleural effusion.

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Variation on Estimated Values of Radioactivity Concentration According to the Change of the Acquisition Time of SPECT/CT (SPECT/CT의 획득시간 증감에 따른 방사능농도 추정치의 변화)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Lee, Jooyoung;Son, Hyeon-Soo;Park, Hoon-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2021
  • Purpose SPECT/CT was noted for its excellent correction method and qualitative functions based on fusion images in the early stages of dissemination, and interest in and utilization of quantitative functions has been increasing with the recent introduction of companion diagnostic therapy(Theranostics). Unlike PET/CT, various conditions like the type of collimator and detector rotation are a challenging factor for image acquisition and reconstruction methods at absolute quantification of SPECT/CT. Therefore, in this study, We want to find out the effect on the radioactivity concentration estimate by the increase or decrease of the total acquisition time according to the number of projections and the acquisition time per projection among SPECT/CT imaging conditions. Materials and Methods After filling the 9,293 ml cylindrical phantom with sterile water and diluting 99mTc 91.76 MBq, the standard image was taken with a total acquisition time of 600 sec (10 sec/frame × 120 frames, matrix size 128 × 128) and also volume sensitivity and the calibration factor was verified. Based on the standard image, the comparative images were obtained by increasing or decreasing the total acquisition time. namely 60 (-90%), 150 (-75%), 300 (-50%), 450 (-25%), 900 (+50%), and 1200 (+100%) sec. For each image detail, the acquisition time(sec/frame) per projection was set to 1.0, 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 15.0 and 20.0 sec (fixed number of projections: 120 frame) and the number of projection images was set to 12, 30, 60, 90, 180 and 240 frames(fixed time per projection:10 sec). Based on the coefficients measured through the volume of interest in each acquired image, the percentage of variation about the contrast to noise ratio (CNR) was determined as a qualitative assessment, and the quantitative assessment was conducted through the percentage of variation of the radioactivity concentration estimate. At this time, the relationship between the radioactivity concentration estimate (cps/ml) and the actual radioactivity concentration (Bq/ml) was compared and analyzed using the recovery coefficient (RC_Recovery Coefficients) as an indicator. Results The results [CNR, radioactivity Concentration, RC] by the change in the number of projections for each increase or decrease rate (-90%, -75%, -50%, -25%, +50%, +100%) of total acquisition time are as follows. [-89.5%, +3.90%, 1.04] at -90%, [-77.9%, +2.71%, 1.03] at -75%, [-55.6%, +1.85%, 1.02] at -50%, [-33.6%, +1.37%, 1.01] at -25%, [-33.7%, +0.71%, 1.01] at +50%, [+93.2%, +0.32%, 1.00] at +100%. and also The results [CNR, radioactivity Concentration, RC] by the acquisition time change for each increase or decrease rate (-90%, -75%, -50%, -25%, +50%, +100%) of total acquisition time are as follows. [-89.3%, -3.55%, 0.96] at - 90%, [-73.4%, -0.17%, 1.00] at -75%, [-49.6%, -0.34%, 1.00] at -50%, [-24.9%, 0.03%, 1.00] at -25%, [+49.3%, -0.04%, 1.00] at +50%, [+99.0%, +0.11%, 1.00] at +100%. Conclusion In SPECT/CT, the total coefficient obtained according to the increase or decrease of the total acquisition time and the resulting image quality (CNR) showed a pattern that changed proportionally. On the other hand, quantitative evaluations through absolute quantification showed a change of less than 5% (-3.55 to +3.90%) under all experimental conditions, maintaining quantitative accuracy (RC 0.96 to 1.04). Considering the reduction of the total acquisition time rather than the increasing of the image acquiring time, The reduction in total acquisition time is applicable to quantitative analysis without significant loss and is judged to be clinically effective. This study shows that when increasing or decreasing of total acquisition time, changes in acquisition time per projection have fewer fluctuations that occur in qualitative and quantitative condition changes than the change in the number of projections under the same scanning time conditions.

Consideration on Shielding Effect Based on Apron Wearing During Low-dose I-131 Administration (저용량 I-131 투여시 Apron 착용여부에 따른 차폐효과에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Ilsu;Kim, Hosin;Ryu, Hyeonggi;Kang, Yeongjik;Park, Suyoung;Kim, Seungchan;Lee, Guiwon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.32-36
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    • 2016
  • Purpose In nuclear medicine examination, $^{131}I$ is widely used in nuclear medicine examination such as diagnosis, treatment, and others of thyroid cancer and other diseases. $^{131}I$ conducts examination and treatment through emission of ${\gamma}$ ray and ${\beta}^-$ ray. Since $^{131}I$ (364 keV) contains more energy compared to $^{99m}Tc$ (140 keV) although it displays high integrated rate and enables quick discharge through kidney, the objective of this study lies in comparing the difference in exposure dose of $^{131}I$ before and after wearing apron when handling $^{131}I$ with focus on 3 elements of external exposure protection that are distance, time, and shield in order to reduce the exposure to technicians in comparison with $^{99m}Tc$ during the handling and administration process. When wearing apron (in general, Pb 0.5 mm), $^{99m}Tc$ presents shield of over 90% but shielding effect of $^{131}I$ is relatively low as it is of high energy and there may be even more exposure due to influence of scattered ray (secondary) and bremsstrahlung in case of high dose. However, there is no special report or guideline for low dose (74 MBq) high energy thus quantitative analysis on exposure dose of technicians will be conducted based on apron wearing during the handling of $^{131}I$. Materials and Methods With patients who visited Department of Nuclear Medicine of our hospital for low dose $^{131}I$ administration for thyroid cancer and diagnosis for 7 months from Jun 2014 to Dec 2014 as its subject, total 6 pieces of TLD was attached to interior and exterior of apron placed on thyroid, chest, and testicle from preparation to administration. Then, radiation exposure dose from $^{131}I$ examination to administration was measured. Total procedure time was set as within 5 min per person including 3 min of explanation, 1 min of distribution, and 1 min of administration. In regards to TLD location selection, chest at which exposure dose is generally measured and thyroid and testicle with high sensitivity were selected. For preparation, 74 MBq of $^{131}I$ shall be distributed with the use of $2m{\ell}$ syringe and then it shall be distributed after making it into dose of $2m{\ell}$ though dilution with normal saline. When distributing $^{131}I$ and administering it to the patient, $100m{\ell}$ of water shall be put into a cup, distributed $^{131}I$ shall be diluted, and then oral administration to patients shall be conducted with the distance of 1m from the patient. The process of withdrawing $2m{\ell}$ syringe and cup used for oral administration was conducted while wearing apron and TLD. Apron and TLD were stored at storage room without influence of radiation exposure and the exposure dose was measured with request to Seoul Radiology Services. Results With the result of monthly accumulated exposure dose of TLD worn inside and outside of apron placed on thyroid, chest, and testicle during low dose $^{131}I$ examination during the research period divided by number of people, statistics processing was conducted with Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test using SPSS Version. 12.0K. As a result, it was revealed that there was no significant difference since all of thyroid (p = 0.345), chest (p = 0.686), and testicle (p = 0.715) were presented to be p > 0.05. Also, when converting the change in total exposure dose during research period into percentage, it was revealed to be -23.5%, -8.3%, and 19.0% for thyroid, chest, and testicle respectively. Conclusion As a result of conducting Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, it was revealed that there is no statistically significant difference (p > 0.05). Also, in case of calculating shielding rate with accumulate exposure dose during 7 months, it was revealed that there is irregular change in exposure dose for inside and outside of apron. Although the degree of change seems to be high when it is expressed in percentage, it cannot be considered a big change since the unit of accumulated exposure dose is in decimal points. Therefore, regardless of wearing apron during high energy low dose $^{131}I$ administration, placing certain distance and terminating the administration as soon as possible would be of great assistance in reducing the exposure dose. Although this study restricted $^{131}I$ administration time to be within 5 min per person and distance for oral administration to be 1m, there was a shortcoming to acquire accurate result as there was insufficient number of N for statistics and it could be processed only through non-parametric method. Also, exposure dose per person during lose dose $^{131}I$ administration was measured with accumulated exposure dose using TLD rather than through direct-reading exposure dose thus more accurate result could be acquired when measurement is conducted using electronic dosimeter and pocket dosimeter.

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Correlation of p53 Protein Overexpression, Gene Mutation with Prognosis in Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC) Patients (비소세포폐암에서 p53유전자의 구조적 이상 및 단백질 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Y.H.;Shin, D.H.;Kim, J.H.;Lim, H.Y.;Chung, K.Y.;Yang, W.I.;Kim, S.K.;Chang, J.;Roh, J.K.;Kim, S.K.;Lee, W.Y.;Kim, B.S.;Kim, B.S.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.339-353
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    • 1994
  • Background : The p53 gene codes for a DNA-binding nuclear phosphoprotein that appears to inhibit the progression of cells from the G1 to the S phase of the cell cycle. Mutations of the p53 gene are common in a wide variety of human cancers, including lung cancer. In lung cancers, point mutations of the p53 gene have been found in all histological types including approximately 45% of resected NSCLC and even more frequently in SCLC specimens. Mutant forms of the p53 protein have transforming activity and interfere with the cell-cycle regulatory function of the wild-type protein. The majority of p53 gene mutations produce proteins with altered conformation and prolonged half life; these mutant proteins accumulate in the cell nucleus and can be detected by immunohistochemical staining. But protein overexpression has been reported in the absence of mutation. p53 protein overexpression or gene mutation is reported poor prognostic factor in breast cancer, but in lung cancer, its prognostic significance is controversial. Method : We investigated the p53 abnormalities by nucleotide sequencing, polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism(PCR-SSCP), and immunohistochemical staining. We correlated these results with each other and survival in 75 patients with NSCLC resected with curative intent. Overexpression of the p53 protein was studied immunohistochemically in archival paraffin- embedded tumor samples using the D07(Novocastra, U.K.) antibody. Overexpression of p53 protein was defined by the nuclear staining of greater than 25% immunopositive cells in tumors. Detection of p53 gene mutation was done by PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing from the exon 5-9 of p53 gene. Result: 1) Of the 75 patients, 36%(27/75) showed p53 overexpression by immunohistochemical stain. There was no survival difference between positive and negative p53 immunostaining(overall median survival of 26 months, disease free median survival of 13 months in both groups). 2) By PCR-SSCP, 27.6%(16/58) of the patients showed mobility shift. There was no significant difference in survival according to mobility shift(overall median survival of 27 in patients without mobility shift vs 20 months in patients with mobility shift, disease free median survival of 8 months vs 10 months respectively). 3) Nucleotide sequence was analysed from 29 patients, and 34.5%(10/29) had mutant p53 sequence. Patients with the presence of gene mutations showed tendency to shortened survival compared with the patients with no mutation(overall median survival of 22 vs 27 months, disease free median survival of 10 vs 20 months), but there was no statistical significance. 4) The sensitivity and specificity of immunostain based on PCR-SSCP was 67.0%, 74.0%, and that of the PCR-SSCP based on the nucleotide sequencing was 91.8%, 96.2% respectively. The concordance rate between the immunostain and PCR-SSCP was 62.5%, and the rate between the PCR-SSCP and nucleotide sequencing was 95.3%. Conclusion : In terms of detection of p53 gene mutation, PCR-SSCP was superior to immunostaining. p53 gene abnormalities either overexpression or mutation were not a significant prognostic factor in NSCLC patients resected with curative intent. However, patients with the mutated p53 gene showed the trends of early relapse.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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