• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

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Sensitivity of Aerosol Optical Parameters on the Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate (에어로졸 광학변수가 대기복사가열률 산정에 미치는 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Choi, In-Jin;Yoon, Soon-Chang;Kim, Yumi
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2013
  • We estimate atmospheric radiative heating effect of aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and lidar observations and radiative transfer calculations. The column radiation model (CRM) is modified to ingest the AERONET measured variables (aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric parameter) and subsequently calculate the optical parameters at the 19 bands from the data obtained at four wavelengths. The aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere, and atmospheric absorption on pollution (April 15, 2001) and dust (April 17~18, 2001) days are 3~4 times greater than those on clear-sky days (April 14 and 16, 2001). The atmospheric radiative heating rate (${\Delta}H$) and heating rate by aerosols (${\Delta}H_{aerosol}$) are estimated to be about $3\;K\;day^{-1}$ and $1{\sim}3\;K\;day^{-1}$ for pollution and dust aerosol layers. The sensitivity test showed that a 10% uncertainty in the single scattering albedo results in 30% uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere and 60% uncertainties in atmospheric forcing, thereby translated to about 35% uncertainties in ${\Delta}H$. This result suggests that atmospheric radiative heating is largely determined by the amount of light-absorbing aerosols.

Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.sup
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

Investigation of SO2 Effect on TOMS O3 Retrieval from OMI Measurement in China (OMI 위성센서를 이용한 중국 지역에서 TOMS 오존 산출에 대한 이산화황의 영향 조사 연구)

  • Choi, Wonei;Hong, Hyunkee;Kim, Daewon;Ryu, Jae-Yong;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.629-637
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    • 2016
  • In this present study, we identified the $SO_2$ effect on $O_3$ retrieval from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurement over Chinese Industrial region from 2005 through 2007. The Planetary boundary layer (PBL) $SO_2$ data measured by OMI sensor is used in this present study. OMI-Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total $O_3$ is compared with OMI-Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometer (DOAS) total $O_3$ in various $SO_2$ condition in PBL. The difference between OMI-TOMS and OMI-DOAS total $O_3$ (T-D) shows dependency on $SO_2$ (R (Correlation coefficient) = 0.36). Since aerosol has been reported to cause uncertainty of both OMI-TOMS and OMI-DOAS total $O_3$ retrieval, the aerosol effect on relationship between PBL $SO_2$ and T-D is investigated with changing Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). There is negligible aerosol effect on the relationship showing similar slope ($1.83{\leq}slope{\leq}2.36$) between PBL $SO_2$ and T-D in various AOD conditions. We also found that the rate of change in T-D per 1.0 DU change in PBL, middle troposphere (TRM), and upper troposphere and stratosphere (STL) are 1.6 DU, 3.9 DU and 4.9 DU, respectively. It shows that the altitude where $SO_2$ exist can affect the value of T-D, which could be due to reduced absolute radiance sensitivity in the boundary layer at 317.5 nm which is used to retrieve OMI-TOMS ozone in boundary layer.

Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.