• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

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Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : Life Cycle Assessment for Environmental Load of Chemical Products using Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis : A Case Study (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part II : 화학제품의 환경부하 전과정평가에 있어 건강영향분석 모의사례연구)

  • Park, Jae-Sung;Choi, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 2000
  • Health risk assessment is applied to streamlining LCA(Life Cycle Assessment) using Monte carlo simulation for probabilistic/stochastic exposure and risk distribution analysis caused by data variability and uncertainty. A case study was carried out to find benefits of this application. BTC(Benzene, Trichloroethylene, Carbon tetrachloride mixture alias) personal exposure cases were assumed as production worker(in workplace), manager(in office) and business man(outdoor). These cases were different from occupational retention time and exposure concentration for BTC consumption pattern. The result of cancer risk in these 3 scenario cases were estimated as $1.72E-4{\pm}1.2E+0$(production worker; case A), $9.62E-5{\pm}1.44E-5$(manger; case B), $6.90E-5{\pm}1.16E+0$(business man; case C), respectively. Portions of over acceptable risk 1.00E-4(assumed standard) were 99.85%, 38.89% and 0.61%, respectively. Estimated BTC risk was log-normal pattern, but some of distributions did not have any formal patterns. Except first impact factor(BTC emission quantity), sensitivity analysis showed that main effective factor was retention time in their occupational exposure sites. This case study is a good example to cover that LCA with probabilistic risk analysis tool can supply various significant information such as statistical distribution including personal/environmental exposure level, daily time activity pattern and individual susceptibility. Further research is needed for investigating real data of these input variables and personal exposure concentration and application of this study methodology.

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Results of Key Comparison on LS1P Microphones (LS1P 마이크로폰 핵심측정표준 국제비교 결과)

  • Suh Jae Gap;Jho Moon Jae;Kwon Hyu-Sang;Suh Sang Joon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.194-201
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    • 2005
  • Since the necessity for the accurate measurement in the field of acoustics, vibration, and ultrasound was internationally increased, CCAUV (Consultative Committee for Acoustics , Ultrasound and Vibration) was created by the CIPM (International Committee for Weights and Measures) in 1998. One of the first activities of CCAUV is the key comparison on 1' standard microphones. The key comparison was done from April. 1999 to April. 2001 and 12 NMIs(National Metrology Institutes) including KRISS (Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science) were participated. The pilot laboratory was the National Physical Laboratory(NPL). The traveling standards were two LSIP(Laboratory Standard 1' Pressure Type) microphones specified in IEC 61094-1 and the calibration frequency ranges covers from 63Hz to 8kHz. In this paper, the analyzed results in the final report were summarized.

Predicting the Mass Burning Flux of Methanol Pool Fires by Using FDS Model (FDS 모델을 이용한 메탄올 풀 화재의 질량연소플럭스 예측)

  • Kim, Sung-Chan
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2017
  • The present study has been conducted to predict the mass burning flux of methanol pool fire using liquid vaporization model in FDS and examine the effect of thermal properties of liquid fuel such as radiative fraction and mean absorption coefficient. A series of calculation for the pool diameter of 5 cm to 200 cm were performed and the size of computational domain was determined by the scale of the pool diameter. The reference grid size was determined by the grid sensitivity analysis and the computational grids consisted of approximately 750,000 cells. For the methanol pool fire, the mass burning flux predicted by liquid vaporization model of FDS followed the trend of transient characteristics as a function of pool diameter and showed good agreement within measurement uncertainty range of previous studies. The mass burning flux increased with increasing the radiative fraction and the mean absorption coefficient greatly affected on relatively small pool diameter.

Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ion Penetration based on Level II Method for Marine Concrete Structure (해양 콘크리트 구조물에 대한 Level II 수준에서의 염소이온침투 신뢰성 해석)

  • Han, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2008
  • Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

Determination of Critical Slope Height for Large Open-pit Coal Mine and Analysis of Displacement for Slope failure Prediction (대규모 노천 석탄광산의 한계사면높이 결정과 사면파괴 예측을 위한 계측자료 해석)

  • Jung, Yong-Bok;SunWoo, Choon;Lee, Jong-Beom
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.447-456
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    • 2008
  • Open-pit mine slope design must be carried out from the economical efficiency and stability point of view. The overall slope angle is the primary design variable because of limited support or reinforce options available. In this study, the slope angle and critical slope height of large coal mine located in Pasir, Kalimantan, Indonesia were determined from safety point of view. Failure time prediction based on the monitored displacement using inverse velocity was also conducted to make up fir the uncertainty of the slope design. From the study, critical slope height was calculated as $353{\sim}438m$ under safety factor guideline (SF>1.5) and $30^{\circ}$ overall slope angle but loom is recommended as a critical slope height considering the results of sensitivity analysis of strength parameters. The results of inverse velocity analysis also showed good agreement with field slope cases. Therefore, failure of unstable slope can be roughly detected before real slope failure.

Calculation and Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from La Chureca Landfill in Managua, Nicaragua (니카라과 마나과시 La Chureca 매립장 온실가스 발생량 산정 및 예측)

  • Kim, Choong Gon;Lee, Hyun Jun;Kang, Ho Jeung;Kim, Jae Young
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of a landfill project to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) from La Chureca Landfill in Managua, Nicaragua ("Project"). The feasibility study involved surveying the status and composition of waste on its way in to the landfill and projecting GHG emissions from the landfill. A projection of the GHG emissions with the IPCC model based on the survey results indicated the period 2006 to 2043 would see mean yearly GHG emissions of 290,147 ton-CO2/year with model certainty not considered, and 217,610 ton-CO2/year with model certainty considered. Thus, the result exceeded the corresponding median and mean values of other CDM projects implemented in Central America, even after model uncertainty was considered together with the conservative estimation of carbon capture efficiency. The similar result was produced even with an analysis of sensitivity to error factors. All the findings of the study are expected to be applicable as basic data for deciding about whether & how to proceed with the Project.

Comparison the reference ion chamber in using the radioactive check source and field ion chamber for output dose for Co-60 source of remote afterloading system (시험선원을 이용한 기준 전리함의 감도변화와 임상필드전리함의 성능 안정성 비교)

  • 최태진
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.141-146
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    • 2001
  • It is well known that assurance of the radiation therapy needs for an accuracy of $\pm$ 5 % in the delivery of an absorbed dose to target volume. Therefore, the dose evaluation of brachytherapy source and/or linear accelerate beam must be a stability with accuracy. In an advanced country, they recommended to use the radioactive check source for reference air ionization chamber for a stable response of radiation field chamber. In this experiments, the radioactive source Sr-90 and PR-05 air ionization chamber were used for standard source and reference ion chamber. The response of reference ion chamber showed as an 1.000$\pm$ 0.010 uncertainty for 10 years long and the evaliuation f dose discrepancy of clinical field ion chamber showed as 0.997 $\pm$0.011 in a $^{60}$ Co brachytherapy soruce. In our experiments, we can assuarance the long halflife standard source is reliable to preserve the calibration factor of reference chamber in stability.

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Reliability-based Design Optimization using Multiplicative Decomposition Method (곱분해기법을 이용한 신뢰성 기반 최적설계)

  • Kim, Tae-Kyun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.299-306
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    • 2009
  • Design optimization is a method to find optimum point which minimizes the objective function while satisfying design constraints. The conventional optimization does not consider the uncertainty originated from modeling or manufacturing process, so optimum point often locates on the boundaries of constraints. Reliability based design optimization includes optimization technique and reliability analysis that calculates the reliability of the system. Reliability analysis can be classified into simulation method, fast probability integration method, and moment-based reliability method. In most generally used MPP based reliability analysis, which is one of fast probability integration method, if many MPP points exist, cost and numerical error can increase in the process of transforming constraints into standard normal distribution space. In this paper, multiplicative decomposition method is used as a reliability analysis for RBDO, and sensitivity analysis is performed to apply gradient based optimization algorithm. To illustrate whole process of RBDO mathematical and engineering examples are illustrated.

Reliability Analysis of Plane Failure in Rock Slope (암반사면의 평면파괴에 대한 신뢰성해석)

  • 장연수;오승현;김종수
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2002
  • A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

Determination of Sulfur Compounds in Gaseous Fuel by Gas Chromatography-Sulfur Chemiluminescence Detection (GC-SCD를 이용한 가스연료 중 황화합물의 정량)

  • Do, Lee Joo;Koh, Jae Suk;Kim, Ho Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.517-521
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    • 1999
  • Gas chromatography using sulfur chemiluminescence detection (GC-SCD) which exhibits very good selectivity, linearity, and sensitivity was applied to the analysis of suIfur compounds in gaseous fuel. The expectmental method used in this study was to resolve the problems of repeatability and reproducibility by means of the adsorption of sulfur compounds, which is different from the existing analysis method of these compounds by GC-SCD. The calibration curves of the standard gases including dimethyl sulfide, t-butylmercaptan and ethyl methyl sulfide exhibited an excellent linearity. As the result of precision tests for the above three compounds, the high reproducibility for tests showed while repeating three times during four days, respectively. In addition, the coefficient of variation was less than 3%. In consequence, the expectmental method of this study is very effective not only with low uncertainty but also with better accuracy, which can quickly determine the concentration of gas odorants in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) from oil reservoirs and filling stations.

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