• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity Equation

Search Result 481, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

Applicability Evaluation of Probability Matching Method for Parameter Estimation of Radar Rain Rate Equation (강우 추정관계식의 매개변수 결정을 위한 확률대응법의 적용성 평가)

  • Ro, Yonghun;Yoo, Chulsang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1765-1777
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study evaluated PMM (Probability Matching Method) for parameter estimation of the Z - R relation. As a first step, the sensitivity analysis was done to decide the threshold number of data pairs and the data interval for the development of a histogram. As a result, it was found that at least 1,000 number of data pairs are required to apply the PMM for the parameter estimation. This amount of data is similar to that collected for two hours. Also, the number of intervals for the histogram was found to be at least 100. Additionally, it was found that the matching the first-order moment is better than the cumulative probability, and that the data pairs comprising 30 to 100% are better for the PMM application. Finally, above findings were applied to a real rainfall event observed by the Bislsan radar and optimal parameters were estimated. The radar rain rate derived by applying these parameters was found to be well matched to the rain gauge rain rate.

Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$ (시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템)

  • Yi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Ryul-Hee;Lim, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Wha-Jung;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2007.11a
    • /
    • pp.109-113
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

  • PDF

The Effects of the Characteristics of Coupons Purchased through a Social Shopping Site upon Customer Satisfaction and Future Behavior Intention - Focusing on Family Restaurants - (Social Shopping Site를 통해 구입한 외식업체 쿠폰 특성이 고객만족도와 향후 행동의도에 미치는 영향 - 패밀리레스토랑을 중심으로 -)

  • Song, Min-Kyung;Yoon, Hye-Hyun
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
    • /
    • v.17 no.5
    • /
    • pp.92-107
    • /
    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to understand the effect of the characteristics of coupons purchased through a social shopping site upon customer satisfaction and future behavior intention. Based on total 332 samples who had bought franchise restaurant coupons and used them before, this study reviewed reliability and fitness of the research model and verified total 4 hypotheses with AMOS and SPSS program. The hypothesized relationships among the models were tested simultaneously by using a structure equation model(SEM). The proposed model provided an adequate fit to the data, ${\chi}^2$=309.795(df=103, p<.001), CMIN/DF=3.008, RMR=.103, GFI=.912, NFI=.927, CFI=.950, RMSEA=.074. The result showed that the coupon proneness(${\beta}$=.645) and price sensitivity(${\beta}$=-.315) had a significant influence on restaurant satisfaction(p<.001) and only coupon proneness(${\beta}$=1.040) had a significant influence on coupon satisfaction(p<.001). Also, restaurant satisfaction had a positive significant influence on restaurant customers' revisit intention(${\beta}$=.603, p<.001) and coupon users' repurchase intention(${\beta}$=.335, p<.001). Furthermore, coupon satisfaction had a positive significant influence on coupon repurchase intention(${\beta}$=.353, p<.001) but had a negative significant influence on restaurant revisit intention(${\beta}$=-.263, p<.001). Limitations and future research directions were also discussed.

  • PDF

1D Numerical Model for Rivers Flows with Emergent Vegetations on Floodplains and Banks (정수식생이 존재하는 자연하도에서 1차원 수치모형)

  • Song, Ju-Il;Kim, Jong-Woo;Rim, Chang-Soo;Yoon, Sei-Eui
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.44 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-22
    • /
    • 2011
  • A 1D numerical model for steady flow, based on the energy equation, was developed for natural rivers with emergent vegetations on floodplains and banks. The friction slope was determined by the friction law of Darcy-Weisbach. The composite friction factor of the each cross section was calculated by considering bottom roughness of the main channel and the floodplains, the flow resistance of vegetations, the apparent shear stress and the flow resistance caused by the momentum transfer between vegetated areas and non-vegetated areas. The interface friction factor caused by flow interaction was calculated by empirical formulas of Mertens and Nuding. In order to verify the accuracy of the suggested model, water surface elevations were calculated by using imaginary compound channels and the results of calculations were compared with that of the HEC-RAS. The sensitivity analysis was performed to confirm changed friction factors by vegetations density etc. The suggested model was applied to the reach of the Enz River in Germany, and estimated water surface elevations of the Enz River were compared with measured water surface elevations. This model could acceptably compute not only water surface elevations with low discharge but also that with high discharge. So, the suggested model in this study verified the applicability in natural rivers with emergent vegetations.

Formation Estimation of Shaly Sandstone Reservoir using Joint Inversion from Well Logging Data (복합역산을 이용한 물리검층자료로부터의 셰일성 사암 저류층의 지층 평가)

  • Choi, Yeonjin;Chung, Woo-Keen;Ha, Jiho;Shin, Sung-ryul
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2019
  • Well logging technologies are used to measure the physical properties of reservoirs through boreholes. These technologies have been utilized to understand reservoir characteristics, such as porosity, fluid saturation, etc., using equations based on rock physics models. The analysis of well logs is performed by selecting a reliable rock physics model adequate for reservoir conditions or characteristics, comparing the results using the Archie's equation or simandoux method, and determining the most feasible reservoir properties. In this study, we developed a joint inversion algorithm to estimate physical properties in shaly sandstone reservoirs based on the pre-existing algorithm for sandstone reservoirs. For this purpose, we proposed a rock physics model with respect to shale volume, constructed the Jacobian matrix, and performed the sensitivity analysis for understanding the relationship between well-logging data and rock properties. The joint inversion algorithm was implemented by adopting the least-squares method using probabilistic approach. The developed algorithm was applied to the well-logging data obtained from the Colony gas sandstone reservoir. The results were compared with the simandox method and the joint inversion algorithms of sand stone reservoirs.

The Value of Adding Ductography to Ultrasonography for the Evaluation of Pathologic Nipple Discharge in Women with Negative Mammography

  • Younjung Choi;Sun Mi Kim;Mijung Jang;Bo La Yun;Eunyoung Kang;Eun-Kyu Kim;So Yeon Park;Bohyoung Kim;Nariya Cho;Woo Kyung Moon
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
    • /
    • v.23 no.9
    • /
    • pp.866-877
    • /
    • 2022
  • Objective: The optimal imaging approach for evaluating pathological nipple discharge remains unclear. We investigated the value of adding ductography to ultrasound (US) for evaluating pathologic nipple discharge in patients with negative mammography findings. Materials and Methods: From July 2003 to December 2018, 101 women (mean age, 46.3 ± 12.2 years; range, 23-75 years) with pathologic nipple discharge were evaluated using pre-ductography (initial) US, ductography, and post-ductography US. The imaging findings were reviewed retrospectively. The standard reference was surgery (70 patients) or > 2 years of follow-up with US (31 patients). The diagnostic performances of initial US, ductography, and post-ductography US for detecting malignancy were compared using the McNemar's test or a generalized estimating equation. Results: In total, 47 papillomas, 30 other benign lesions, seven high-risk lesions, and 17 malignant lesions were identified as underlying causes of pathologic nipple discharge. Only eight of the 17 malignancies were detected on the initial US, while the remaining nine malignancies were detected by ductography. Among the nine malignancies detected by ductography, eight were detected on post-ductography US and could be localized for US-guided intervention. The sensitivities of ductography (94.1% [16/17]) and post-ductography US (94.1% [16/17]) were significantly higher than those of initial US (47.1% [8/17]; p = 0.027 and 0.013, respectively). The negative predictive value of post-ductography US (96.9% [31/32]) was significantly higher than that of the initial US (83.3% [45/54]; p = 0.006). Specificity was significantly higher for initial US than for ductography and post-ductography US (p = 0.001 for all). Conclusion: The combined use of ductography and US has a high sensitivity for detecting malignancy in patients with pathologic nipple discharge and negative mammography. Ductography findings enable lesion localization on second-look post-ductography US, thus facilitating the selection of optimal treatment plans.

Research on the use of Therapeutic Linear accelerator Quality Control using EPR/alanine Dosimeter (EPR/알라닌 선량계를 이용한 치료용 선형가속기 정도관리 활용 연구)

  • Yoon-Ha Kim;Hyo-Jin Kim;Yeong-Rok Kang;Dong-Yeon Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-248
    • /
    • 2024
  • Radiation therapy uses high energy, which can have side effects on the human body. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the appropriate dose is set for irradiation and to have confidence in the radiation produced by the generator. The EPR/Alanine dosimetry system is characterized by water equivalence, dose response linearity, and low fading, which makes it useful for quality control of radiation therapy equipment. In this study, we compared the signal and dose response curves of EPR/Alanine dosimetry by mass of alanine using 6 MV energy of a LINAC. An alanine dosimeter and EPR spectrometer from Burker, and a LINAC from Elekta, were used. A dose response curve and a 1st order regression equation were constructed from the irradiated dose and the EPR signal from the alanine dosimeter. We compared the signal magnitude and dose response curve with mass and checked the confidence through the measurement uncertainty of the dose response curve. As a result, it was found that the magnitude of the EPR signal increased by about 1.3 times at 64.5 mg, and the sensitivity of the dose response curve increased as the mass increased. The measurement uncertainty was evaluated to be between 5.84 % and 8.93 %. Through this study, it is expected that the EPR/alanine dosimetry system can be applied to the quality assurance and quality control of a LINAC.

Study on Development of Embedded Source Depth Assessment Method Using Gamma Spectrum Ratio (감마선 스펙트럼 비율을 이용한 매립 선원의 깊이 평가 방법론 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Jun-Ha;Cheong, Jea-Hak;Hong, Sang-Bum;Seo, Bum-Kyung;Lee, Byung Chae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-62
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to develop a method for depth assessment of embedded sources using gamma-spectrum ratio and for the evaluation of field applicability. To this end, Peak to Compton and Peak to valley ratio changes were evaluated according to 137Cs, 60Co, 152Eu point source depth using HPGe detector and MCNP simulation. The effects of measurement distance of PTV and PTC methods were evaluated. Using the results, the source depth assessment equation using the PTC and PTV methods was derived based on the detection distance of 50 cm. In addition, the sensitivity of detection distance changes was assessed when using PTV and PTC methods, and error increased by 3 to 4 cm when detection distance decreased by 20 cm based on 50 cm. However, it was confirmed that if the detection distance was increased to 100 cm, the effects of detection distance were small. And PTV and PTC methods were compared with the two distance measurement method which evaluates the depth of source by the change of net peak counting rate according to the detection distance. As a result of source depth assessment, the PTV and PTC showed a maximum error of 1.87 cm and the two distance measurement method showed maximum error of 2.69 cm. The results of the experiment confirmed that the accuracy of the PTV and PTC methods was higher than two distance measurement. In addition, Sensitivity evaluation by horizontal position error of source has maximum error of less than 25.59 cm for the two distance measurement method. On the other hand, PTV and PTC method showed high accuracy with maximum error of less than 8.04 cm. In addition, the PTC method has lowest standard deviation for the same time measurement, which is expected to enable rapid measurement.

Heading Ecology of Rice Varieties Adaptable to the Temperature and Day-Length Conditions in North Korean Regions (북한 지역 기온과 일장 환경 적응 벼 품종의 출수생태 특성 분석)

  • Woonho Yang;Shingu Kang;Dae-Woo Lee;Mi-jin Chae
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.68 no.4
    • /
    • pp.236-245
    • /
    • 2023
  • We investigated the basic vegetative phase (BVP), photoperiod-sensitivity (PS), and thermo-sensitivity (TS) of 40 rice varieties to characterize their heading ecology that is adaptable to North Korean rice production areas. The ranges were 12 - 43 days for BVP, 0 - 74 days for PS, and 15 - 33 days for TS, depending on the variety. The number of days from transplanting to the heading stage (DTH) was significantly correlated with PS in the 13 major rice production regions where all 40 varieties (including early-, middle-, and mid-late-maturing varieties) were tested. DTH was significantly correlated with BVP and TS but not with PS in the 10 low-temperature regions where only 28 early-maturing varieties were tested. The heading ecology of the adaptable varieties for each region could be characterized by an exponential equation between the BVP and PS of varieties that headed at the border of the safe marginal heading date (SMHD) for each of the seven regional environments (Kaesong, Haeju, Yongyon, Singye, Sariwon, Nampo, and Pyongyang). A PS of 25 - 30 days or less was an additional adaptive trait in the Sariwon and Pyongyang environments. The varieties that reached the heading stage not later than the SMHD in six regional environments (Anju, Kusong, Sinuiju, Changjon, Wonsan, and Supung) and those that reached the heading stage not later than the late marginal heading date (LMHD) in four regional environments (Hamhung, Pyonggang, Huichon, and Kanggye) had both a PS of 26 days or less and a BVP of 25 - 28 days or less. In the Yangdok, Sinpo, and Chunggang environments, varieties that reached the heading stage not later than the LMHD for each region had a BVP of 15 - 20 days or less. The results suggested that a shortened BVP trait should be introduced to existing early-maturing rice varieties to reduce the duration of growth period to reach the heading stage.

Studies on the Improvement of the Fishing Efficiency of Purse Seine in the Sea Area of Cheju Island -The Changes of Seine Volume and Tension in the Purseline During Pursing- (제주도 주변해역 선망의 어획성능 향상에 관한 연구 -짐줄 체결 중 선망의 용적과 짐줄의 장력 변화 -)

  • 김석종
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-101
    • /
    • 1999
  • A simple experimental method was used in an attempt to realize the elevation of the fishing ability of purse seine in the sea area of Cheju Island, the changes of seine volume and tension in the purseline during pursing. Experiments carried out on the six types simplified reduced model seines which were made of knotless nettings. The nettings were woven in different leg length 4.3, 5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 6.6 and 7.7mm of polyester 28 tex two threads two-ply twine, and each of the seines were named I, II, III, IV, V and Ⅵ seine. Dimension of seine models were 450cm for corkline and 85cmfor seine depth, each seines rigged up 160g of float for a floatline and 50g (underwater weight) of lead for a leadline. These model purse seines were made of the scale of 1/200 of its full scale, a 120 ton in the near sea of Cheju Island. Designing and testing for the model purse seines were based on the Tauti's law. Experiments were measured in the observation channel of a flume tank at the static conditions set up shooting and pursing equipments. Motion of purse seine during purse line was recorded by the two sets video camera for VTR which were placed in top and front of the model seine. The reading coordinate of seine volume carried out by the video digitization system, disk data for the purseline tension. An analysis were performed on the changes seine volume and tension in the purseline during pursing. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The seine volume during pursing was largest for Ⅵ seine with smallest d/l followed by V, IV, III, II and I seines, and tension in the purseline was small. 2. Seine volume during pursing can be expressed by the following equation; CVt=l-EXP[{2.79 (d/l)+0.35}t-33.37 (d/l) + 0.57] Where CVt is volume ratio, d is twine diameter, l is leg length and t is pursing time (sec). 3. Tension in the purse line during pursing can be expressed by the following equation; T= 1- EXP {0.57t + 13.36 (d/l)+2.97} Where T is tension (kg) in the purseline during pursing.

  • PDF