• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.705-714
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• 2019

Seismic assessment of underground structures is one of the challenging problems in engineering design. This is because there are usually many sources of uncertainties in rocks and probable earthquake characteristics. Therefore, for decreasing of the uncertainties, seismic response of underground structures should be evaluated by sufficient number of earthquake records which is scarcely possible in common seismic assessment of underground structures. In the present study, a practical risk-based approach was performed for seismic risk assessment of an unsupported tunnel. For this purpose, Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) was used to evaluate the seismic response of a tunnel in south-west railway of Iran and different analyses were conducted using 15 real records of earthquakes which were chosen from the PEER ground motion database. All of the selected records were scaled to different intensity levels (PGA=0.1-1.7 g) and applied to the numerical models. Based on the numerical modeling results, seismic fragility curves of the tunnel under study were derived from the IDA curves. In the next, seismic risk curve of the tunnel were determined by convolving the hazard and fragility curves. On the basis of the tunnel fragility curves, an earthquake with PGA equal to 0.35 g may lead to severe damage or collapse of the tunnel with only 3% probability and the probability of moderate damage to the tunnel is 12%.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2003년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.495-502
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• 2003

This study proposed the Probability Density Function (PDF) interpolation technique to evaluate the seismic fragility curves as a function of the return period. Seismic fragility curves have been developed as a function of seismic intensities such as peak ground acceleration, peak pound velocity, and pseudo-velocity spectrum. The return period of design earthquakes, however, can be more useful among those seismic intensity measurements, because the seismic hazard curves are generally represented with a return period of design earthquakes and the seismic design codes also require to consider the return period of design earthquake spectrum for a specific site. In this respect the PDF interpolation technique is proposed to evaluate the seismic fragility curves as a function of return period. Seismic fragility curves based on the return period are compared with ones based on the peak ground acceleration for the bridge model.

• 국제초고층학회논문집
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.175-185
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• 2020

Currently, few studies have been conducted to comprehend the seismic reliability of post-tensioned (PT) CLT shear wall structures, due to the complexity of this kind of structural system as well as due to lack of a reliable structural model. In this paper, a set of 4-, 8-, 12-, and 16-storey benchmark PT CLT shear wall structures (PT-CLTstrs) were designed using the direct displacement-based design method, and their calibrated structural models were developed. The seismic reliability of each PT-CLTstr was assessed based on the fragility analysis and based on the response surface method (RSM), respectively. The fragility-based reliability index and the RSM-based reliability index were then compared, for each PT-CLTstr and for each seismic hazard level. Results show that the RSM-based reliabilities are slightly less than the fragility-based reliabilities. Overall, both the RSM and the fragility-based reliability method can be used as efficient approaches for assessing the seismic reliabilities of the PT-CLTstrs. For these studied mid- and high-rise benchmark PT-CLTstrs, following their fragility-based reliabilities, the 8-storey PT-CLTstr is subjected to the least seismic vulnerability; while, following their RSM-based reliabilities, the 4-storey PT-CLTstr is subjected to the least seismic vulnerability

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2014

The seismic evaluation of electric power facilities in the switchyard of nuclear power plants is currently insufficient. In order to evaluate the seismic performance of lightning arrester subjected to four types of earthquake (near- and far-fault earthquakes, NEHRP Site Class A&B and D earthquakes), seismic fragility analysis using maximum likelihood estimation is performed considering various damage states. The comparison of the seismic fragility curves for three main parts of lightning arrester that are the busing, anchor and steel frame, reveals that the failure of lightning arrester is governed by the bushing damage mode such as porcelain cracking.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.359-374
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• 2017

The seismic events in Northern Italy, May 2012, have revealed the seismic vulnerability of typical Italian precast industrial buildings. The aim of this paper is to present a seismic fragility model for Italian RC precast buildings, to be used in earthquake loss estimation and seismic risk assessment by comparing two building typologies and three different codes: D.M. 3-03-1975, D.M. 16-01-1996 and current Italian building code that has been released in 2008. Based on geometric characteristics and design procedure applied, ten different building classes were identified. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed for each building class in order to generate the building stock used for the development of fragility curves trough analytical method. The probabilistic distributions of geometry were mainly obtained from data collected from 650 field surveys, while the material properties were deduced from the code in place at the time of construction or from expert opinion. The structures were modelled in 2D frameworks; since the past seismic events have identified the beam-column connection as the weakest element of precast buildings, two different modelling solutions were adopted to develop fragility curves: a simple model with post processing required to detect connection collapse and an innovative modelling solution able to reproduce the real behaviour of the connection during the analysis. Fragility curves were derived using both nonlinear static and dynamic analysis.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제64권2호
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• pp.213-223
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• 2017

Bridges are lifeline and integral components of transportation system that are susceptible to seismic actions, their vulnerability assessment is essential for seismic risk assessment and mitigation. The vulnerability assessment of bridges common in Pakistan is very important as it is seismically very active region and the available code for the seismic design of bridges is obsolete. This research presents seismic vulnerability assessment of three real case simply supported multi-span reinforced concrete bridges commonly found in northern Pakistan, having one, two and three bents with circular piers. The vulnerability assessment is carried through the non-linear dynamic time history analyses for the derivation of fragility curves. Finite element based numerical models of the bridges were developed in MIDAS CIVIL (2015) and analyzed through with non-linear dynamic and incremental dynamic analyses, using a suite of bridge-specific natural spectrum compatible ground motion records. Seismic responses of shear key, bearing pad, expansion joint and pier components of each bridges were recorded during analysis and retrieved for performance based analysis. Fragility curves were developed for the bearing pads, shear key, expansion joint and pier of the bridges that first reach ultimate limit state. Dynamic analysis and the derived fragility curves show that ultimate limit state of bearing pads, shear keys and expansion joints of the bridges exceed first, followed by the piers ultimate limit state for all the three bridges. Mean collapse capacities computed for all the components indicated that bearing pads, expansion joints, and shear keys exceed the ultimate limit state at lowest seismic intensities.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.389-398
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• 2018

The seismic isolation system makes a structure isolated from ground motions to protect the structure from seismic events. Seismic isolation techniques have been implemented in full-scale buildings and bridges because of their simplicity, economic effectiveness, inherent stability and reliability. As for the responses of an isolated structure due to seismic events, it is well known that the most uncertain aspects are the seismic loading itself and structural properties. Due to the randomness of earthquakes and uncertainty of structures, seismic response distributions of an isolated structure are needed when evaluating the seismic fragility assessment (or probabilistic seismic safety assessment) of an isolated structure. Seismic response time histories are useful and often essential elements in its design or evaluation stage. Thus, a large number of non-linear dynamic analyses should be performed to evaluate the seismic performance of an isolated structure. However, it is a monumental task to gather the design or evaluation information of the isolated structure from too many seismic analyses, which is impractical. In this paper, a new methodology that can evaluate the seismic fragility assessment of an isolated structure is proposed by using stochastic response database, which is a device that can estimate the seismic response distributions of an isolated structure without any seismic response analyses. The seismic fragility assessment of the isolated nuclear power plant is performed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is able to evaluate the seismic performance of isolated structures effectively and reduce the computational efforts tremendously.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제83권5호
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• pp.577-591
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• 2022

This paper develops a comparatively time-efficient methodology for performing seismic fragility analysis of the reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in the presence of uncertainty sources. It aims to appraise the effectiveness of any variation in the material's mechanical properties as epistemic uncertainty, and the record-to-record variation as aleatory uncertainty in structural response. In this respect, the fuzzy set theory, a well-known 𝛼-cut approach, and the Genetic Algorithm (GA) assess the median of collapse fragility curves as a fuzzy response. GA is requisite for searching the maxima and minima of the objective function (median fragility herein) in each membership degree, 𝛼. As this is a complicated and time-consuming process, the authors propose utilizing the Gene Expression Programming-based (GEP-based) equation for reducing the computational analysis time of the case study building significantly. The results indicate that the proposed structural analysis algorithm on the derived GEP model is able to compute the fuzzy median fragility about 33.3% faster, with errors less than 1%.