• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.577-586
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• 2016

Hazardous air pollution caused by heavy metals in the air is at a serious level. Although manganese(Mn), one of the heavy metals, is a non-carcinogenic substance, it has a harmful influence on the human body. It is partially measured because automatic monitoring technologies have not yet be fully established. We introduced a statistical model for the daily concentration of manganese. Incorporating a linkage between Mn and meteorology, the proposed model is formulated in way to identify meteorological effects and to allow for seasonal trends, enabling not only accurate measurement of manganese concentration, but also information about the evaluation on a Hazard Quotient (non-cancer risk).

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 1998.09a
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• pp.236-241
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• 1998

The NOAA AVHRR remote sense SST data, collected by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (NFRDI), are analyzed in order to understand the spatial and temporal distributions of SST in the seas adjacent to Korea. Our study is based on 10-day SST images during last 7 years (1991-1997). For a time series analysis of multiple 557 images, all of images must be aligned exactly at the same position by adjusting the scales and positions of each SST image. We devised an algorithm which yields automatic detections of cloud pixels from multiple SST images. The cloud detection algorithm is based on a physical constraint that SST anomalies in the ocean do not exceed certain limits (we used $\pm$ 3$^{\circ}C$ as a criterion of SST anomalies). The remote sense SST data are tuned by comparing remote sense data with observed SST at coastal stations. Seasonal variations of SST are studied by harmonic fit of SST normals at each pixel. The SST anomalies are studied by statistical method. We found that the SST anomalies are rather persistent with time scales between 1 and 2 months. Utilizing the persistency of SST anomalies, we devised an algorithm for a prediction of future SST Model fit of SST anomalies to the Markov process model yields that autoregression coefficients of SST anomalies during a time elapse of 10 days are between 0.5 and 0.7. We plan to improve our algorithms of automatic cloud pixel detection and prediction of future SST. Our algorithm is expected to be incorporated to the operational real time service of SST around Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.435-442
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• 2007

To reduce damage from high concentration ozone in the air, we have researched how to predict high concentration ozone before it occurs. High concentration ozone is a rare event and its reaction mechanism has nonlinearities and complexities. In this paper, we have tried to apply and consider as many methods as we could. We clustered the data using the fuzzy c-mean method and took a rejection sampling to fill in the missing and abnormal data. Next, correlations of the input component and output ozone concentration were calculated to transform more correlated components by modified log transformation. Then, we made the prediction models using Dynamic Polynomial Neural Networks. To select the optimal model, we adopted a minimum bias criterion. Finally, to evaluate suggested models, we compared the two models. One model was trained and tested by the transformed data and the other was not. We concluded that the modified transformation effected good to ideal performance In some evaluations. In particular, the data were related to seasonal characteristics or its variation trends.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.265-272
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• 2019

In this study, we conducted a prediction study to qualitatively identify the continuous growth rate that causes problems every year for deposit bank mortgage loans, identify the characteristic factors that could once again stabilize, and come up with measures for future quantitative analysis of mortgage loans and growth trends. Based on data analysis using the R program, which is widely used for big data analysis, the parameters of ARIMA model (0.1,1)(0.1,1)[12] were found to be most suitable. In these indicators, estimates over the next five years (60 months) increased 4.5% on average. However, this has limitations that do not reflect socio-environmental factors, which require further study of these limitations.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2021

High-resolution wind resources maps (maps, here after) with spatial and temporal resolutions of 100 m and 3-hours, respectively, over South Korea have been produced and evaluated for the period from July 2016 to June 2017 using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Post Processing (KMAPP). Evaluation of the 10 m- and 80 m-level wind speed in the new maps (KMAPP-Wind) and the 1.5 km-resolution KMA NWP model, Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS), shows that the new high-resolution maps improves of the LDAPS winds in estimating the 10m wind speed as the new data reduces the mean bias (MBE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 33.3% and 14.3%, respectively. In particular, the result of evaluation of the wind at 80 m which is directly related with power turbine shows that the new maps has significantly smaller error compared to the LDAPS wind. Analyses of the new maps for the seasonal average, maximum wind speed, and the prevailing wind direction shows that the wind resources over South Korea are most abundant during winter, and that the prevailing wind direction is strongly affected by synoptic weather systems except over mountainous regions. Wind speed generally increases with altitude and the proximity to the coast. In conclusion, the evaluation results show that the new maps provides significantly more accurate wind speeds than the lower resolution NWP model output, especially over complex terrains, coastal areas, and the Jeju island where wind-energy resources are most abundant.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.125-154
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• 2023

Since the Korean Meteorological Society was organized in 1963, the climate dynamics fields have been made remarkable progress. Here, we documented the academic developments in the area of climate dynamics performed by members of Korean Meteorological Society, based on studies that have been published mainly in the Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, Atmosphere, and Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. In these journals, the fundamental principles of typical ocean-atmosphere climatic phenomena such as El Niño, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, their modeling, prediction, and its impact, are being conducted by members of Korean Meteorological Society. Recently, research has been expanded to almost all climatic factors including cryosphere and biosphere, as well as areas from a global perspective, not limited to one region. In addition, research using an artificial intelligence (AI), which can be called a cutting-edge field, has been actively conducted. In this paper, topics including intra-seasonal and Madden-Julian Oscillations, East Asian summer monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, mid-latitude and polar climate variations and some paleo climate and ecosystem studies, of which driving mechanism, modeling, prediction, and global impact, are particularly documented.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.1075-1086
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• 2019

Recently, as the incidence of climate warming and abnormal climate increases, the forecasting of hydrological factors such as precipitation and river flow is getting more complicated, and the risk of water shortage is also increasing. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model for predicting the amount of water intake in mid-term. To this end, the correlation between water intake and meteorological factors, including temperature and precipitation, was used to select input factors. In addition, the amount of water intake increased with time series and seasonal characteristics were clearly shown. Thus, the preprocessing process was performed using the time series decomposition method, and the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to the residual to develop the river intake prediction model. This model has an error of 4.1% on average, which is higher accuracy than the SVM model without preprocessing. In particular, this model has an advantage in mid-term prediction for one to two months. It is expected that the water intake forecasting model developed in this study is useful to be applied for water allocation computation in the permission of river water use, water quality management, and drought measurement for sustainable and efficient management of water resources.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.565-571
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• 2014

A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in consideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_3
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• pp.1077-1093
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• 2020

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an important environmental indicator that affects climate coupling systems around the world. In particular, coastal regions suffer from abnormal SST resulting in huge socio-economic damage. This study used Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) to predict SST up to 7 days in the south sea region in South Korea. The results showed that the ConvLSTM model outperformed the LSTM model, resulting in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.33℃ and a mean difference of -0.0098℃. Seasonal comparison also showed the superiority of ConvLSTM to LSTM for all seasons. However, in summer, the prediction accuracy for both models with all lead times dramatically decreased, resulting in RMSEs of 0.48℃ and 0.27℃ for LSTM and ConvLSTM, respectively. This study also examined the prediction of abnormally high SST based on three ocean heatwave categories (i.e., warning, caution, and attention) with the lead time from one to seven days for an ocean heatwave case in summer 2017. ConvLSTM was able to successfully predict ocean heatwave five days in advance.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.443-463
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• 2024

This study sought to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction by utilizing monthly precipitation data for each region over the past 30 years. Using statistical models (ARIMA, SARIMA) and deep learning models (LSTM, GBM), we learned monthly precipitation data from 1983 to 2012 in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. Based on this, monthly precipitation was predicted for 10 years from 2013 to 2022. As a result of the prediction, most models accurately predicted the precipitation trend, but showed a tendency to underpredict the actual precipitation. To solve these problems, appropriate models were selected for each region and season. The LSTM model showed suitable results in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. When comparing forecasting power by season, the SARIMA model showed particularly suitable forecasting performance in winter in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Seoul, and Chuncheon. Additionally, the LSTM model showed higher performance than other models in the summer when precipitation is concentrated. In conclusion, closely analyzing regional and seasonal precipitation patterns and selecting the optimal prediction model based on this plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of precipitation prediction.