• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal fluctuation

Search Result 243, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측)

  • Baek, Mi Kyung;Kim, Sang Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.65 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain's two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

Seasonal Fluctuation in Abundance and Species Composition of Fish Collected by a Beam Trawl in Coastal Waters off Samcheonpo (삼천포 연안에서 새우 조망에 어획되는 어류 종조성 및 계절변동)

  • Yu, Tae-Sik;Lee, Seong-Hoon;Kim, Sa-Jo;Kwon, Jin-Goo;Han, Kyeong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
    • /
    • v.32 no.3
    • /
    • pp.160-165
    • /
    • 2020
  • Seasonal fluctuation in abundance and species composition of fish in coastal waters off Samcheonpo were investigated using seasonal samples collected by a beam trawl in 2019 to compare the variation of species composition and dominant species with previous studies. A total of 6,518 fish were sampled and classified into 44 species, 30 families, and 6 orders. The dominant species were Nuchequula nuchalis (1,542 individuals, 23.7%), Platycephalus indicus (529 individuals, 8.1%), Thryssa kammalensis (437 individuals, 6.7%), Argyrosomus argentatus (403 individuals, 6.2%), and Acanthogobius flavimanus (354 individuals, 5.4%). The highest number of individuals was found in July (2,385 individuals), while the lowest number of individuals was found in January (925 individuals). The diversity index was the highest in April (H'=2.733) and the lowest in July (H'=2.546).

Seasonal Fluctuation in Abundance and Species Composition of Fishes in Sorido Island of Yeosu Coast, Korea (여수 소리도 주변해역에서 채집되는 어류의 종조성 및 군집구조)

  • HAN, Kyeong-Ho;LEE, Sung-Hun;KIM, Seon-Jae;YOUN, Byoung-il
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.646-654
    • /
    • 2017
  • The Fluctuation in the abundance and species composition of fish was investigated Sorido Island southern, Korea from August, 1999 to May, 2000. A total of 1,920.6 fishes were sampled and classified into 9 orders, 34 families, and 39 species. The dominant orders were Perciformes including 15 famailies and 17 species, followed by Pleuronectiformes including 5 families and 6 species, Scorpaeniformes including 4 families and 6 species Ilisha elongata was the dominant occupying 23.96%, followed by Scomber japonicus 16.27%, and Engraulis japonicus 10.98%. Year-round species dominant occupying Conger myriaster, Ilisha elongata, Platycephalus indicus, Leiognathus nuchalis. Seasonal species occupying Hapalogenys mucronatus, Uranoscopus japonicus, Citharoides macrolepidotus. The monthly diversity, evenness, and Richness index were 1.970~2.528, 0.669~0.759, 2.747~4.729, respectively.

A Study of Sales Increase and/or Decrease by Campaign Using a Differential Equation Model of the Growth Phenomenon

  • Horinouchi, Kunihito;Takabayashi, Naoki;Yamamoto, Hisashi;Ohba, Masaaki
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.289-296
    • /
    • 2014
  • With society becoming more advanced and complex, the required management engineering makes essential the development of human resources that can propose solutions for problems of new phenomena from a different perspective. As an example of such phenomena, we note a consumer electronics 'Eco-point' system campaign in this study. To mitigate global warming, revitalize the economy, and encourage the adoption of terrestrial digital compatible TVs, the consumer electronics Eco-point system campaign was implemented in May 2009 in Japan. In this study, we note a model which is constant term with exponential curve with notion of the growth phenomenon (Nakagiri and Kurita, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 2002). In our study, we call this model the 'differential equation model of the growth phenomenon.' This model represents a phenomenon with a hierarchical structure for capturing the properties of n species. In this study, we propose a new model which can represent not only the impact of largescale campaigns but also seasonal factors. Accordingly, we understand the phenomenon of fluctuation of sales of some products caused by large-scale campaigns and predict the fluctuation of sales. The final goal of this study is to develop human resources that can propose provision and solution for pre-consumption and reactionary decline in demand by understanding the impact of large-scale campaigns. As the first step of this goal, our objective is to propose a new regression method with different conventional perspective that can describe the fluctuation of sales caused by large-scale campaigns and show the possibility of new management engineering education.

Behavior of double deck tunnel due to feature change and variation of ground water table (다목적 복층터널의 기능전환과 지하수위 변화에 따른 거동분석)

  • Park, No-Hyeon;Kim, Ho-Jong;Shin, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.18 no.6
    • /
    • pp.581-591
    • /
    • 2016
  • Several attempts to construct multi-purpose tunnel for both road and waterway have been made. The multi-purpose tunnel is mainly used as a road tunnel, however it is transferred to waterway to control flood during rainy season. The planning of the multi-purpose tunnel is recognized as cost-effective way of infrastructure construction. In case of the multi-purpose tunnel constructed beneath groundwater table, seasonal fluctuation of groundwater table and repeated flow in the tunnel may cause long-term deterioration of the tunnel system. In this study, the behavior of multi-purpose tunnel in view of groundwater table or flow in the tunnel is investigated using model test and numerical modeling method. The results have shown that rising of groundwater table caused buoyant force to the tunnel and the fluctuation of rainwater in the tunnel generated loosening of surrounding ground. It is recommended to evaluate the effect of the long-term water pressure variation in the design of a multi-purpose tunnel.

A Study of the Fluctuation factors and Model of Daily Visitors of National Park (국립공원의 이용자수 변동요인 및 추정모형에 관한 연구)

  • 안성노
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.27-39
    • /
    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study is to prove the factors affecting the fluctuation of daily visitors in five mountainous national park(Kayasan, kyeryongsan, Naejangsan, Soraksan, Songnisan), and to analyze the relationship between these factors and daily visitors in Korea. "Three Factors and Nine Categories"(Aoki, K. & Aoki, Y. : 1974, 1979) has been applied to this study, and statistical analysis method was carried out by computer program SAS and SPSS. The number of daily visitors is calculated based on the data of "Daily entrance ticket sale report" by administration office in each national park. The scope of time period is during the last 5years(1982∼1986: 1825days) and the results were as follows: 1) There were significant differences in the number of daily visitors of each national park among months, days of a week and weather-the same as the previous study of urban park case. But it wold be better for their category classification to be adjusted according to the fluctuation pattern of each national park. 2) The peak of monthly visitors comes in May(Kayasan, Soraksan, Songnisan) or October(Kyeryongsan, Naejangsan). These months are specified as group tour season. On the basis of monthly fluctuation pattern, Each national park were classified into seasonal type, that is, kayasan, Soraksan were proved to be three-season type(Spring, Summer, Autumn), Songnisan to be two-season type(Spring, Autumn), and Naejangsan to be one-season type(Autumn). 3) The weekly pattern differs from three category (weekday, weekend, holiday: Eom, Choi 1986) in the case of urban park study. And there is no significant difference in daily fluctuation pattern by weather (fine, cloudy and rainy day), but significant difference between snowy and the others. This result is due to the characteristics of visitors, which is, the major visits of national park are planned in a advance of the tour, therefore it is difficult to change the plan by the weather. 4) the result of correlation analysis showed that the most influential factor on national park use in Kayasan, Naejangsan, Soraksan and Songnisan is ′Monthly characters (M)′, on the contrary ′Day of week(D)′ in Kyeryongsan only. From the result, The more parks are resource-based, the more ′Monthly characters′-factor is supposed to affect the number of daily visitors rather than ′Day of the week′-factor. This means that kayasan, naejangsan, Sorakson and Songnisan are classified into resource-based type, but on the other hand Kyeryongsan should be classified into intermediate type.

  • PDF

The Determining factors and Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Chemical Oxygen Demand in Jinhae Bay (진해만에 있어서의 COD의 시공간적인 특성 및 결정인자)

  • 김종구;조은일
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.189-195
    • /
    • 1999
  • Determining factors and temporal & spatial characteristics of COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand) at the sea surface in Jinhae bay have been examined by using seasonal data, taken at twenty six stations over the whole bay during 1989~1994 by NERDA. The data have been analyzed in terms of long term means, anomalously large values. Jinhae bay is divided into three regions based on the time mean : mouth of Jinhae bay, inner sea of Masan bay, western sea of Jinhae bay called region 1,2 and 3, respectively. The horizontal distribution of the long term mean of COD at each station is similar to those of nitrogen and phosphorus. Characteristics of whole mean variation in the year shows high range of variation in region 2. It was appear to decreases every year in whole trend. Factors determining seasonal variation in whole COD mean are relative to salinity and nutrient, affected by precipitation in summer. Spatial variation shows high range of fluctuation in region 2 compare to other region. Factors determining of spatial variation of COD was appear to nutrient, affected by pollutant load of land area and bottom sediment. The long term mean of COD at each station is closely related with thats of nutrients. The correlation coefficient between COD and nitrogen, phosphate phosphorus was found to be high as 0.75, 0.78, respectively. Anomalously large COD was observed 14 times at 6 stations. These stations are located in inner sea of Masan bay(Region 2) and Songjeong bay(Region 1). The seasonal frequency of the observed anomalous COD is large in April, and other seasons are much the same.

  • PDF

Seasonal Occurrence of Spodoptera exigua in Chonnam Province and a Possibility of Their Control in Vinyl House with Pheromone Traps (합성 성페로몬 대량유살 트랩을 이용한 파밤나방의 발생소장, 발생량 및 방제효과)

  • 김규진;박종대;최덕수
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.106-111
    • /
    • 1995
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effect of mass trapping with synthetic sex pheromone on seasonal occurrence of, the Beet amyworm (BAW) Spodoptera exigua, and on suppress of their density in Chonnam province from 1992 to 1994. Adult males of BAW were colllected by the trap from early through early November. The numbers began to increase abruptly from early July, and forming three peaks on mid July, early August and early September. Yearly occurrence and the area damaged by the BAW varied in relation to weather condition. Especially, low temperature and heavy rainfall in August 1993 seems to have affected to reduce the BAW population. The pheromone trap attracted higher numbers (1.5~2.3 times) of BAW adult than ordinary light rap. And the BAW population in vinyl hose was noticeably reduced when more than 10 pheromone traps were operated per 330$\m^2$ of vinyl house.

  • PDF

The Effect of Seasonal Rhythm on the Gentamicin Pharmacokinetics in Healthy Volunteers (계절리듬이 겐타마이신의 약물동태에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Jun Shik;Kim, Jin;Baek, Chae Sun;Do, Nam Yong;Kim, Sung Hwan;Park, Young Jin
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.89-94
    • /
    • 1998
  • Seasonal rhythmic changes in gentamicin pharmacokinetics was evaluated in 10 healthy male volunteers after single intravenous 80 mg administration of gentamicin at 9:00 a.m. during summer and winter. The mean terminal half-life and AUC of gentamicin were $3.56\pm0.14\;hr\;and\;25.03\pm2.84\;{\mu}g/ml{\cdot}hr$ in winter and $3.08\pm0.41\;hr\;and\;21.84\pm2.51\;{\mu}g/ml{\cdot}hr$ in summer. The mean total body clearance $(CL_t)$ and elimination rate constant $(k_{10})$ of gentamicin was $3.17\pm0.43\;L/hr,\;0.458\pm0.06\;hr^{-1}\;in\;winter\;and\;3.66\pm0.45\;L/hr,\;0.561\pm0.07\;hr^{-1}$ in summer, The mean volumn of distribution $(V_{dss})$ of gentamicin at steady state was $12.65\pm1.09$L in winter and $12.39\pm1.25$ L in summer. Serum concentrations of gentamicin in winter were increased significantly during 4-8 hr (p<0.05) compared to those of gentamicin in summer. The elimination rate constant $(k_{10})$ of gentamicin in winter was decreased significantly $(p<0.05)$ compared to that of gentamicin in summer. The mean volume of distribution at steady state $(V_{dss})$, AUC, mean total body clearance ($CL_t$) and terminal half-life of gentamicin in the winter were increased but were not significant. The mean intrasubject fluctuations in terminal half-life, AUC and $CL_t$ between winter and summer were 8.2, 11.0 and $6.0\%$ respectively.

  • PDF

Seasonal Changes in Vitamin D Levels of Healthy Children in Mid-Latitude, Asian Urban Area

  • Won, Jong Woo;Jung, Seong Kwan;Jung, In Ah;Lee, Yoon
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.207-217
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the seasonal changes in vitamin D levels in a healthy pediatric population living in mid-latitude East Asian urban areas. Methods: A pediatric population was selected from single secondary hospital visitors. Clinical data and serum vitamin D levels were collected retrospectively. Statistical analyses were performed based on the month of the blood sampling date, subject age, and vitamin D supplementation history. The data were categorized into three subgroups based on serum vitamin D levels-adequate (≥30 ng/mL), insufficient (20-29 ng/mL), and deficient (<20 ng/mL). Results: Of the 481 patients, 172 had vitamin D supplementation history. More than 70% of the total study population had inadequate vitamin D levels (<30 ng/mL). The non-supplemented group and the supplemented group showed significantly uneven monthly distribution of the adequate, insufficient, and deficient subgroups. Only the non-supplemented group showed significantly different average vitamin D levels in the summer months compared to the winter months. In the non-supplemented group, vitamin D levels were the lowest in March, the highest in August and September. Significant relevance was noted between vitamin D supplementation status and vitamin D serum level in February and March. There was no significant difference between different age groups in terms of the distribution of vitamin D levels. Conclusion: Currently-widespread vitamin D replacement methods seem to have some effect on increasing the overall serum vitamin D levels, specifically during late winter when natural serum vitamin D levels plunge. However, they are unable to fully compensate the seasonal fluctuation.