• 제목/요약/키워드: Seasonal Variations

검색결과 1,049건 처리시간 0.04초

승법계절 ARIMA 모형에 의한 부산항 컨테이너 물동량 추정과 예측 (Forecasting the Container Throughput of the Busan Port using a Seasonal Multiplicative ARIMA Model)

  • 이재득
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 1992년부터 2011년까지 월별자료를 사용하여 여러 가지 시계열 추정모델과 승법 계절 ARIMA 모형을 설정하여 부산항의 컨테이너 물동량을 추정하고 예측하였다. 여러 가지 모델로 추정한 결과 부산항의 컨테이너 물동량과 물동량 변동 모두 계절을 승법한 ARIMA 모델 $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$로 추정하였을 때, 추정결과와 Akaike information, Schwarz, Hannan-Quin 기준 등으로 보아, 가장 좋은 ARIMA 추정과 예측 모형으로 나타났다. 그리하여 부산항 물동량 추정의 최적모형인 ARIMA $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$ 모형에 의해 향후 8년간 96개월에 대한 부산항 물동량 미래 예측치(2013-2020년)를 월별로 추정하여 예측한 결과 2013년부터 부산의 물동량은 연도별로 조금씩 지속적으로 증가하는 추세를 보일 것으로 나타났다. ARIMA $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$ 모형에 의한 부산항의 컨테이너 물동량의 연도별 예측량은 2013년 1천 891만 TEU, 2014년 2천 34만 TEU, 2015년 2천 188만 TEU, 2016년 2천 353만 TEU, 2017년 2천 531만 TEU, 2018년 2천 722만 TEU 그리고 2020년 3천 148만 TEU 등으로 나타났다.

한국 남해 가덕도 인근해역에 출현하는 자어의 종조성과 계절변동 (Seasonal Variation in the Species Composition of Larval Fish Assemblages in the Coastal Waters off Gadeok-do, South Sea, Korea)

  • 이은경
    • 한국어류학회지
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.294-304
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    • 2023
  • 가덕도 인근해역에서 출현하는 자어 군집에 대한 계절변동을 파악하기 위해 2019년 5월, 8월, 11월 그리고 2020년 2월에 조사를 실시하였다. 조사기간 동안 자어는 총 45과 85개 분류군이 출현하였다. 우점종은 멸치(Engraulis japonicus), 망둑어류(Gobiidae spp.), 청어(Clupea pallasii), 가라지(Decapterus maruadsi), 돛양태류(Callionymidae sp.) 등으로 나타났으며, 이들 5종은 조사기간 중 출현한 자어 전체 출현개체수의 84.1%를 차지하였다. 멸치와 망둑어류, 가라지, 돛양태류는 여름철 우점종이었고, 청어는 겨울철 우점종이었다. 종다양도지수는 여름철에 가장 높고 가을, 겨울철로 갈수록 낮아졌으며, 봄철에 가장 낮은 값을 나타내었다. 조사기간 동안 출현한 자어의 출현개체수로 군집분석을 실시한 결과 계절에 따라 4개의 그룹으로 뚜렷이 구분되었다. 특히, 계절적 수온변화에 따라 여름철에는 자어의 적정한 성육환경이 형성되었고, 겨울철에는 겨울산란어종의 적정한 부화수온이 형성되어 자어군집의 계절적 특성을 반영하고 있었다.

동해 해수면의 계절적인 변동에 대하여 (Seasonal sea Level oscillations in the East Sea (Sea of Japan))

  • 오임상;알렉산더 비 라뷔노비치;박명숙;로알드 엔 만수로브
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 1993
  • 해수면의 계절적인 변동성을 조사하기 위하여 한국의 황해, 남해 및 동해안의 조위 관측점과 러시아, 일본의 동해에 연한 총 48개 관측점의 월평균해수면 자료를 분석 하였다. 해수면의 강한 계절적인 변화는 한국 서안의 군산(42.1 cm)과 대한 해협, 그리고 Primorye 지역의 남부 가까이(30-33 cm)에서 기록되었으며, 비교적 약한 변화는 사할린 남서해안에서 발견되었다. 남서 사할린을 제외한 전 연구지역에서 계절적인 해 수면 변동 양상이 거의 같다. 즉 여름과 가을에 상승하고 겨울과 봄에 감소하는 양상 이다. 이들 해수면자료의 스펙트럼 분석의 결과로 계절적인 진동이 해수면의 변위 중 에 가장 우세하며 연구해역의 함부에서는 전체 에너지의 80%에 달하고 북부에서도 50-70%에 달했다. 또, 대부분의 관측점에서 연주기 성분이 현저히 우세하며, 반년주기 성분도 명백히 나타났으나 그 이상의 고주파 성분은 단지 몇몇 관측점에서만 보일 정도이었다. 최소자승법을 사용하여 계산한 년수기 성분(A1)의 최대 진촉은 한국의 서안에서 20-21cm에 달하였다. 발년주기 성분은 사할린섬의 남단과 남서 해안에서 최대치 3-4cm인 것으로 밝혀졌다. 이지역의 년주기 해수면 변동폭은 여타지역보다 훨씬 작아서 전 에너지 수지에 대한 계절적 변도의 상대적 크기는 단지 35-40%에 지나지 않으며, 년수기와 발년주기의 진폭비(계절변동 계수 R=A1+A2)는 0.9-1.2로서 같은 크기임을 알수 있다. 이와 같은 해수면 자료의 분석과 Tomizawa et al.(1984)의 연구결과를 근거로하여 본 연구해역을 10개의 해역으로 나눌수 있다. 즉 황해와 한국의 남해 서부해안을 Y1과 Y2해역으로 동해를E1에서 E8까지 8개의 해역으로 나눌수 있다.

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한국성우(韓國成牛)의 혈액학치(血液學値) 및 혈액화학치(血液化學値)에 관한 연구(硏究) 제2보(第二報) 한국성우(韓國成牛)의 혈액화학치(血液化學値)에 관한 연구(硏究) (Studies on the Hematology and Blood Chemistry of Korean Cattle Part II. Studies on the Blood Chemistry of Korean Cattle)

  • 정창국
    • 대한수의학회지
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.97-123
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    • 1965
  • Observations were made on the blood picture of total 196 heads of healthy Korean cattles, including 98 males and females in the purpose of determination of blood chemical values and their sex differences and seasonal variations during one year period from December, 1963 to November, 1964. The blood sampling were scheduled by random in four different seasons and the sample size of both sex included in each season were designated to be same size. The ranges, averages or mean values of the blood glucose, total serum protein, serum globulin, serum albumin, total non-protein nitrogen, blood urea nitrogn, total serum cholesterol, serum inorganic phosphorus and serum calcium were determined in this studies and their respective standard deviation, standard error of means, sex differences and seasonal variations were as follows. 1. The blood glucose values for the male ranged from 32.8 to 70.0 mg/100cc. with a mean of $49.781{\pm}0.823mg/100cc$; for the female the range was 32.0 to 64.0mg/100cc. with a mean of $47.235{\pm}0.782mg/100cc$. Sex difference showed significant at 5% level and seasonal variation was highly significant at 1% level. 2. The total serum protein values for the male ranged from 5.61 to 8.83 gm/100cc with a. mean of $7.366{\pm}0.062gm/100cc$; for the female ranged from 5.53 to 8. 43 gm/100cc. with a mean of $6.832{\pm}0.063gm/100cc$. Sex difference and seasonal variation was not significant. 3. The serum globulin values for the male ranged from 2.97 to 4.78 gm/100cc. with a mean of $3.961{\pm}0.039gm/100cc$.; for the female ranged from 2.87 to 4.41 gm/100cc. with a mean of $3.699{\pm}0.037gm/100cc$. Sex difference showed highly significant at 1% level and seasonal variation was not significant. 4. The serum albumin values for the male ranged from 2.58 to 4.21 gm/100cc. with a mean of $3.405{\pm}0.029gm/100cc$.; for the female ranged from 2.39 to 4.10 gm/100cc. with a mean of $3.204{\pm}0.031gm/100cc$. Sex difference showed highly significant at 1% level and seasonal variation was not significant. 5. The total non-protein nitrogan values for the male ranged from 19.1 to 44.8 gm/100cc. with a mean of $31.166{\pm}0.582mg/100cc$.; for the female the range was 15.2 to 50.5 mg/100cc. with a mean of $28.89.6{\pm}0.673mg/100cc$. Sex difference showed significant at 5% level and seasonal variation was highly significant at 1 % level. 6. The blood urea nitrogen values for the male ranged from 6.4 to 28.3 mg/100cc. with a mean of $13.371{\pm}0.466mg/100cc$.; for the female the range, was 6.0 to 26.9 mg/100cc. with a mean of $13.631{\pm}0.321mg/100cc$. Sex difference was not significant and seasonal variation showed highly significant at 1 % level. 7. The total serum cholesterol values for the male ranged from 60.0 to 238.6 mg/100cc. with a mean of $140.897{\pm}2.826mg/100cc$.; for the female ranged from 50.0 to 243.0 mg/100cc. with a mean of $124.840{\pm}3.553mg/100cc$. Sex difference and seasonal variation showed highly significant at 1% level. 8. The serum inorganic phosphorus values for the male ranged from 3.5 to 7.8 mg/100cc. with a mean of $5.426{\pm}0.096mg/100cc$.; for the female ranged from 3.1 to 8.8 mg/100cc. with a mean of $5.570{\pm}0.128mg/100cc$. Sex difference and seasonal variation showed no significant. 9. The serum calcium values for the male ranged from 7.8 to 12.8 mg/100cc. with a mean of $10.761{\pm}0.102mg/100cc$.; for the female ranged from 8.0 to 13.0 mg/100cc. with a mean of 10. $756{\pm}0.097mg/100cc$. Sex difference was not significant and seasonal variation showed highly significant at 1% level. 10. The age of test group ranged from 2 years to 6 years in both sex and the averageage were, $4.45{\pm}0.114$ years in male and $4.50{\pm}0116$ years in female. Sex difference and seasonal variation of age were not found to be significant.

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위성 (OMI)을 활용한 한반도 지역 NO2 분석 (Analysis of NO2 over the Korean Peninsula from Ozone Monitoring Instrument Satellite Measurements)

  • 김덕래;최원준;이준석;김승연;홍준석;송창근;이재범;홍유덕;이석조
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2012
  • Monitoring of climate change and atmospheric environment by satellite measurements has been increased in recent years. In this study, nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) measurements from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were compared with surface measurements over the Korean peninsula. $NO_2$ from OMI measurements showed high values and also showed seasonal variations such as high concentration in winter and low in summer over metropolitan areas while $NO_2$ concentration at national background station was low and did not clearly show seasonal variations. Surface measurements showed similar temporal and spatial variations to those of satellite measurement. The comparison between satellite measurements and surface measurements showed that the correlation between them was higher in urban area (r=0.64 at Seoul and r=0.63 at Daegu) than in national background stations (r=0.37 at Jeju) because the concentration in urban area was relatively high so that the variation of $NO_2$ concentration could be detected better than at national background stations by satellite. Satellite can effectively measure the emission and transport of pollutants with no limitations in spatial coverage.

북서태평양 아열대 해역에서 침강입자 플럭스의 시·공간 변동 (Temporal and Spatial Variations of Sinking-particle Fluxes in the Northwestern Subtropical Pacific)

  • 김형직;형기성;유찬민;전동철;정진현;김부근;김동선
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제33권spc3호
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    • pp.385-395
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    • 2011
  • Time-series sediment traps were deployed at 1,000 m water depth of the northwestern subtropical Pacific from July 2009 to June 2010, with the aim of understanding temporal and spatial variations of sinking-particle fluxes. The opening and closing of the traps was synchronized at 18-day periods for 20 events. Total mass fluxes showed distinct seasonal variations with high values for the summer-fall seasons and relatively low values for winter-spring. This seasonal variation at two stations was characterized by a distinct difference in $CaCO_3$ fluxes between the two seasons. The enhanced $CaCO_3$ flux in the summer - fall seasons might be attributed to an increased planktonic foraminiferal flux. Total mass flux at FM10 station was nearly 50% higher than that at FM1 station. The difference in $CaCO_3$ fluxes between two stations contributed nearly 70% of the difference of total mass fluxes. The $CaCO_3$ flux was a major component controlling temporal and spatial variation of sinking - particle fluxes in the western subtropical Pacific Ocean.

새만금 방조제 완공 이전 만경강 하구역 식물플랑크톤 군집의 주기적인 변동 (Cyclic Change of Phytoplankton Community in Mankyeong River Estuary prior to the Completion of the Saemankeum Seawall)

  • 김영길;박종우;장건강;이원호
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2009
  • Eutrophicated water fed through Mankyeong River and Dongjin River into the new Saemankeum Lakemight seriously affect the water quality and phytoplankton community in the lake. To obtain control reference data for the later studies on environmental changes due to the construction of the Saemankeum Sea Wall, we performed a monthly investigation on the physico-chemical properties of the water and phytoplankton community at 3 stations in the Mankyeong River Estuary over 14 months starting from September 1999. Water temperature ranged from $0.3{\sim}32.9^{\circ}C$ due to the typical seasonal variations in temperate on the coasts and salinity exhibited a wide annual range of $0.2{\sim}33.7$ psu along with regular and huge hourly variations according to tidal cycles. Inorganic nutrients were supplied from rivers to the monitoring station and the whole lake. The average concentration of total-N, $6.99\;mg{\cdot}l^{-1}$, was higher than the water quality for agricultural use with peak values occurring in winter. Species composition showed a seasonal succession pattern, where a high diversity was observedin summer and autumn and vice versa in winter. Hourly variations of water properties in the "Mankyeong bridge" Station were quite regular and well in accordance with the daily tidal cycles. The different degree of sea water intrusion during the flood tide at each of the 3 stations exhibited a different range and variation pattern of water temperature and salinity throughout a day. Hourly changes in species composition were in harmony with the daily tidal cycles, resulting in extremely variable spatio-temporal variation.

남한 지역에서 발생한 구름-지면 낙뢰의 극성별 특성 (Characteristics by the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Polarity Occurred over South Korea)

  • 명지수;서명석
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.335-347
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    • 2010
  • 이 연구에서는 기상청에서 관측한 최근 7년(2002-2008)간의 낙뢰자료를 이용하여 남한지역에서 발생한 구름-지면 낙뢰 현상의 극성별 시 공간적 특성을 분석하였다. 낙뢰빈도는 극성에 관계없이 강한 경년변동, 계절변동 및 일 변동을 보이고 있다. 낙뢰빈도는 여름과 겨울에 각각 최대(74%) 및 최소(0.6%)를 보이고 있다. 또한 계절과 극성에 따라 다르지만 낙뢰는 평균적으로 새벽과 오후에 최대로 발생하는 일 변동을 보이고 있다. 정극성 비율(정극성/부극성)은 여름에 7.3%로 낮으나 겨울에는 62.5%로 강한 계절 변동을 보이고 있다. 낙뢰강도는 경년 및 일 변동은 거의 보이지 않고 있으며 낙뢰가 많이 발생하는 여름에 약하고 낙뢰가 적게 발생하는 겨울에 강한 계절 변동을 보이고 있다. 또한 정극성 낙뢰강도는 강한 계절 변동을 보이는 반면 부극성은 상대적으로 약한 계절 변동을 보이고 있다. 낙뢰밀도는 영동과 동해 지역보다 서부 내륙 및 서 남해상에서 높게 나타나고 있다. 낙뢰강도의 경우 극성에 관계없이 내륙에서보다 바다, 특히 동해상에서 강하게 나타나고 있다.

Mid-latitude Geomagnetic Field Analysis Using BOH Magnetometer: Preliminary Results

  • Hwang, Jun-Ga;Choi, Kyu-Cheol;Lee, Jae-Jin;Park, Young-Deuk;Ha, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2011
  • Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute researchers have installed and operated magnetometers at Mt. Bohyun Observatory to measure the Earth's magnetic field variations in South Korea. We, in 2007, installed a fluxgate magnetometer (RFP-523C) to measure H, D, and Z components of the geomagnetic field. In addition, in 2009, we installed a Overhauser proton sensor to measure the absolute total magnetic field F and a three-axis magneto-impedance sensor for spectrum analysis. Currently three types of magnetometer data have been accumulated. In this paper, we provide the preliminary and the first statistical analysis using the BOH magnetometer installed at Mt. Bohyun Observatory. By superposed analysis, we find that daily variations of H, D, and Z shows similar tendency, that is, about 30 minutes before the meridian (11:28) a minimum appears and the time after about 3 hours and 30 minutes (15:28) a maximum appears. Also, a quiet interval start time (19:06) is near the sunset time, and a quiet interval end time (06:40) is near the sunrise time. From the sunset to the sunrise, the value of H has a nearly constant interval, that is, the sun affects the changes in H values. Seasonal variations show similar dependences to the sun. Local time variations show that noon region has the biggest variations and midnight region has the smallest variations. We compare the correlations between geomagnetic variations and activity indices as we expect the geomagnetic variation would contain the effects of geomagnetic activity variations. As a result, the correlation coefficient between H and Dst is the highest (r = 0.947), and other AL, AE, AU index and showed a high correlation. Therefore, the effects of geomagnetic storms and geomagnetic substorms might contribute to the geomagnetic changes significantly.

우리나라 서해에서의 해양환경변화와 동물부유생물의 장기간의 출현량 변화 (Variations of Marine Environments and Zooplankton Biomass in the Yellow Sea During the Past Four Decades)

  • 최정화;박원규
    • 수산해양교육연구
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.1046-1054
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    • 2013
  • Spatial and temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST), abundances of copepods, euphausiids, amphipods, and chaetognaths were investigated in the western waters of the Korean Peninsula. Zooplankton and SST were monitored at 63 stations arrayed in six transects ($124^{\circ}00^{\prime}-126^{\circ}30^{\prime}E$, $34^{\circ}00^{\prime}-37^{\circ}00^{\prime}N$) in February, April, June, August, October, and December during 1978-2010. In general, SST increased $0.7-3.8^{\circ}C$ during the last three decades with spatio-temporal variations. SST was lowest in February and highest in August. SST was highest in the northernmost transect and declined gradually along transects to the south. The general pattern of interannual variations of SST was similar to the global pattern, which has been increasing. Trends of abundances of all zooplankton groups slightly increased interannually and peaked seasonally in June and August, except chaetognaths, which fluctuated around the long-term mean value with a seasonal peak in August and October. Abundances of zooplankton groups were highest in the northernmost transect while those of euphausiids were highest in the southern transect. We discuss the distribution patterns of SST and zooplankton groups in relation to oceanographic characteristics in the study area.