• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.869-876
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• 2012

In this paper, we applied seasonal time series models such as ARIMA, FARIMA, AR-GARCH and Holt-Winters in consideration of seasonality to forecast short-term electricity demand data. The results for performance evaluation on the time series models show that seasonal FARIMA and seasonal Holt-Winters models perform adequately under the criterion of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.605-622
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• 2021

Seasonal forecasting has numerous socioeconomic benefits because it can be used for disaster mitigation. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose and improve the seasonal forecast model. Moreover, the model performance is partly related to the ocean model. This study evaluated the hindcast performance in the upper ocean of the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5-Global Couple Configuration 2 (GloSea5-GC2) using a multivariable integrated evaluation method. The normalized potential temperature, salinity, zonal and meridional currents, and sea surface height anomalies were evaluated. Model performance was affected by the target month and was found to be better in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. An increase in lead time led to a decrease in overall model performance, along with decreases in interannual variability, pattern similarity, and root mean square vector deviation. Improving the performance for ocean currents is a more critical than enhancing the performance for other evaluated variables. The tropical Pacific showed the best accuracy in the surface layer, but a spring predictability barrier was present. At the depth of 301 m, the north Pacific and tropical Atlantic exhibited the best and worst accuracies, respectively. These findings provide fundamental evidence for the ocean forecasting performance of GloSea5.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2008년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.221-226
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• 2008

This study was carry out evaluation of seasonal performance for the decentralized desalination system with the solar thermal system and the photovoltaic power system. First operating demonstration system was set up in Cheju in 2006. These system comprises the desalination unit with designed daily fresh water capacity of $2m^3$ and is supplied by a $120m^2$ evacuated tubular solar collector, a $6m^3$ heat storage tank, and a 5kW photovoltaic power generation supply the electricity for hydraulic pumps to move the working fluids. In a spring season day average $392W/m^2$, the daily fresh water showed to produce about 340liter. In a summer season day average $296W/m^2$, the daily fresh water showed to produce about 328liter. In a autumn season day average $349W/m^2$, the daily fresh water showed to produce about 277liter. In a winter season day average $342W/m^2$, the daily fresh water showed to produce about 271liter.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2010년 춘계학술대회논문집
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• pp.239-241
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• 2010

Performance evaluation for an air conditioning system is conducted at a specified test conditions. One is low temperature and the other is high temperature condition. Most of the manufactures tried to improve the performance at higher outdoor temperature. One of the reasons is that the customer wants to get ore capacity at high temperature climate. To cope with these kinds of demand, manufactures are tried to achieve higher capacity at high temperature with minimum power consumption even with same size of the system. Consequently, previous studies on performance of the air conditioning system are focused on capacity and performance improvement at high outdoor temperature.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.11-17
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• 2007

This study evaluates the seasonal performances of the horizontal-type geothermal heat exchanger(HGHEX) installed into the foundation slabs of the complex building located at Seoul. The geothermal system is consisted with totally 31,860m long HGHEX, 16 GSHPs (Ground-source Heat Pump) and 8 circulation pumps. This system supplies cooling and heating to the lobby(F1) and the common spaces(BF1). The average heat exchange temperature differences are $2.7^{\circ}C\;and\;2.5^{\circ}C$ in the summer, $1.5^{\circ}C\;and\;0.5^{\circ}C$ in the winter for the F1 and BF1 respectively. From these results, approximately 400Gcal and 180Gcal of geothermal energy are assumed to have been used during the summer and winter seasons respectively. As a conclusion, the geothermal system is reviewed as a effective utility for heating and cooling at the point of seasonal performances.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.417-426
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• 2019

This study was conducted to evaluate seasonal effects on production performance of lactation sows reared in two different environments in South Korea. A total of 76 sows ($Landrace{\times}Yorkshire$) from the Dankook University experimental farm and 120 sows ($Landrace{\times}Yorkshire$) from a commercial farm were collected. In the current study, reduced (p < 0.01) feed intake and energy intake during lactation were observed in warm season compared with cool season in both farms. Sows in cool season had higher backfat thickness at weaning but lower back fat loss (p < 0.01) than those in warm season. The weaning to estrus interval was lower (p < 0.01) in cool season than in warm season. Piglets weaned in warm season had lower (p < 0.01) body weight (BW), body weight gain (BWG), and average daily gain (ADG) at weaning than did those weaned in cool season on the Dankook University farm, whereas the reduction effect was only observed during 0 - 21 d on the commercial farm (p < 0.01). Moreover, piglets weaned in cool season had higher BW, BWG, and ADG (p < 0.05) on both farms. In conclusion, our results indicate that warm season had very negative effects on feed intake and production performance of lactating sows and piglets.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.183-189
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• 2024

본 연구는 시계열 데이터를 효과적으로 예측하기 위해 데이터를 Seasonal-Trend Decomposition on Loess 을 통해 추세, 계절성, 잔차 성분으로 분해한 후 추세 성분에는 ARIMA, 계절성 성분에는 Fourier Series Regression, 잔차 성분에는 XGBoost를 적용하는 하이브리드 예측 모델을 제안하였다. 또한, ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTM, EMD-ARIMA, CEEMDAN-LSTM 모델을 포함한 성능 비교 실험을 수행하여 각 모델의 예측 성능을 평가하였다. 실험 결과, 제안된 하이브리드 모델은 MAPE, MAAPE, RMSE 지표에서 각각 3.8%, 3.5%, 0.35로 가장 좋은 평가 지표 값을 보이며 기존의 단일 모델보다 우수한 성능을 보였다.

• 한국지열·수열에너지학회논문집
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2017

The heating and cooling air conditioning field has been increasing the problems of energy consumption and global warming in the world. A geothermal heat pump has been known as one of the highest efficient heating and cooling system. In this study, the analysis about the test standards of the geothermal heat pump of the Republic of Korea was executed. From the research, the following results were given. It is needed to address the domestic test standard for direct heat exchange geothermal heat pump. Water to air multi geothermal heat pump test standard was only developed in Korea. The test standard to calculate a seasonal energy efficiency ratio for cooling period and heat seasonal performance factor for heating period should be newly developed to estimate actual annual energy consumption and $CO_2$ emission.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.917-923
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• 2012

We perform a comparison of time series models that include seasonal ARIMA, Fractional ARIMA, and Holt-Winters models; in addition, we also consider hourly and daily air passenger data. The results of the performance evaluation of the models show that the Holt-Winters methods outperforms other models in terms of MAPE.

• 대기
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.367-379
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• 2022

In this paper, the evaluation of the performance of Korea Meteorological Administratio (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) is presented by assessing the effects of larger ensemble size and carrying out the test using different initial conditions for hindcast in sub-seasonal to seasonal scales. The number of ensemble members increases from 3 to 7. The Ratio of Predictable Components (RPC) approaches the appropriate signal magnitude with increase of ensemble size. The improvement of annual variability is shown for all basic variables mainly in mid-high latitude. Over the East Asia region, there are enhancements especially in 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind fields. It reveals possibility to improve the performance of East Asian monsoon. Also, the reliability tends to become better as the ensemble size increases in summer than winter. To assess the effects of using different initial conditions, the area-mean values of normalized bias and correlation coefficients are compared for each basic variable for hindcast according to the four initial dates. The results have better performance when the initial date closest to the forecasting time is used in summer. On the seasonal scale, it is better to use four initial dates, where the maximum size of the ensemble increases to 672, mainly in winter. As the use of larger ensemble size, therefore, it is most efficient to use two initial dates for 60-days prediction and four initial dates for 6-months prediction, similar to the current Time-Lagged ensemble method.