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Comparison of Results According to Reaction Conditions of Thyroglobulin Test (Thyroglobulin 검사의 반응조건에 따른 결과 비교 분석)

  • Joung, Seung-Hee;Lee, Young-Ji;Moon, Hyung-Ho;Yoo, So-yoen;Kim, Nyun-Ok
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.39-43
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    • 2017
  • Purpose Thyroglobulin (Tg) is a biologic marker of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), produced by normal thyroid tissue or thyroid cancer tissue. Therefore, the Tg values of DTC patients is the most specific indicator for judging whether recurrence occur or whether the remaining thyroid cancer is present. Thyroid cancer is currently the most common cancer in Korea, of which 90% is differentiated thyroid cancer. The number of patients with thyroid disease of this application also increased, and an accurate and prompt results are required. However, the incubation time of the Tg commonly takes about 24 hours in our hospital, and the result reporting time is delayed, and We could not satisfied with the requirements of clinical departments and patients. In order to fulfill these requirements, experiments were conducted by shortening the incubation time between company B's Kit currently in use and company C's Kit used in other hospitals. Through these experiments, we could perform the correlation with the original method and shortening method, and could find the optimum reaction time to satisfy the needs of the departments and the patients, and we will improve the competitiveness with the EIA examination. Materials and Methods In September 2016, we tested 65 patients company B's kit and company C's kit by three incubation ways. First method $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 2hr/2hr, Second method RT shaking 3hr/2hr, Third method 1hr/1hr shaking at $37^{\circ}C$. Fourth method RT shaking 3hr method which is the original method of Company C's Kit. Fifth method, the incubation time was shortened under room temperature shaking 2hr, Sixth method $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 2hr. And we performed and compared the correlation and coefficient of each methods. Results As a result of performing shortening method on company B currently in use, when comparing the Original method of company B kit, First method $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 2hr/2hr was less than Tg 1.0 ng/mL and the ratio of $R^2=0.5906$, above 1.0 ng/mL In the value, $R^2=0.9597$. Second method RT shaking 3hr/2hr was $R^2=0.7262$ less than value of 1.0 ng/mL, $R^2=0.9566$ above than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Third method $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 1hr/1hr was $R^2=0.7728$ less than value of 1.0 ng/mL, $R^2=0.8904$ above than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Forth, Company C's The original method, RT shaking 3hr was $R^2=0.7542$ less than value of 1.0 ng/mL, and $R^2=0.9711$ above than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Fifth method RT shaking 2hr was $R^2=0.5477$ less than value of 1.0 ng/mL, $R^2=0.9231$ above than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Sixth method $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 2hr showed $R^2=0.2848$ less than value of 1.0 ng/mL, $R^2=0.9028$ above than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Conclusion Samples with both values of 1.0 ng/mL or higher in both of the six methods showed relatively high correlation, but the correlation was relatively low less than value of 1.0 ng/mL. Especially, the $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 2hr method of company C showed a sharp fluctuation from the low concentration value of 1.0 ng/mL or less. Therefore, we are planning to continuously test the time, equipment, incubation temperature and so on for the room temperature shaking 2hr method and $37^{\circ}C$ shaking 1hr/1hr of company C which showed a relatively high correlation. After that, we can search for an appropriate shortening method through additional experiments such as recovery test, dilution test, sensitivity test, and provide more accurate and prompt results to the department of medical treatment, It is competitive with EIA test.

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Predicting the Direction of the Stock Index by Using a Domain-Specific Sentiment Dictionary (주가지수 방향성 예측을 위한 주제지향 감성사전 구축 방안)

  • Yu, Eunji;Kim, Yoosin;Kim, Namgyu;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the amount of unstructured data being generated through a variety of social media has been increasing rapidly, resulting in the increasing need to collect, store, search for, analyze, and visualize this data. This kind of data cannot be handled appropriately by using the traditional methodologies usually used for analyzing structured data because of its vast volume and unstructured nature. In this situation, many attempts are being made to analyze unstructured data such as text files and log files through various commercial or noncommercial analytical tools. Among the various contemporary issues dealt with in the literature of unstructured text data analysis, the concepts and techniques of opinion mining have been attracting much attention from pioneer researchers and business practitioners. Opinion mining or sentiment analysis refers to a series of processes that analyze participants' opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions about selected products, services, organizations, social issues, and so on. In other words, many attempts based on various opinion mining techniques are being made to resolve complicated issues that could not have otherwise been solved by existing traditional approaches. One of the most representative attempts using the opinion mining technique may be the recent research that proposed an intelligent model for predicting the direction of the stock index. This model works mainly on the basis of opinions extracted from an overwhelming number of economic news repots. News content published on various media is obviously a traditional example of unstructured text data. Every day, a large volume of new content is created, digitalized, and subsequently distributed to us via online or offline channels. Many studies have revealed that we make better decisions on political, economic, and social issues by analyzing news and other related information. In this sense, we expect to predict the fluctuation of stock markets partly by analyzing the relationship between economic news reports and the pattern of stock prices. So far, in the literature on opinion mining, most studies including ours have utilized a sentiment dictionary to elicit sentiment polarity or sentiment value from a large number of documents. A sentiment dictionary consists of pairs of selected words and their sentiment values. Sentiment classifiers refer to the dictionary to formulate the sentiment polarity of words, sentences in a document, and the whole document. However, most traditional approaches have common limitations in that they do not consider the flexibility of sentiment polarity, that is, the sentiment polarity or sentiment value of a word is fixed and cannot be changed in a traditional sentiment dictionary. In the real world, however, the sentiment polarity of a word can vary depending on the time, situation, and purpose of the analysis. It can also be contradictory in nature. The flexibility of sentiment polarity motivated us to conduct this study. In this paper, we have stated that sentiment polarity should be assigned, not merely on the basis of the inherent meaning of a word but on the basis of its ad hoc meaning within a particular context. To implement our idea, we presented an intelligent investment decision-support model based on opinion mining that performs the scrapping and parsing of massive volumes of economic news on the web, tags sentiment words, classifies sentiment polarity of the news, and finally predicts the direction of the next day's stock index. In addition, we applied a domain-specific sentiment dictionary instead of a general purpose one to classify each piece of news as either positive or negative. For the purpose of performance evaluation, we performed intensive experiments and investigated the prediction accuracy of our model. For the experiments to predict the direction of the stock index, we gathered and analyzed 1,072 articles about stock markets published by "M" and "E" media between July 2011 and September 2011.

Directions of Implementing Documentation Strategies for Local Regions (지역 기록화를 위한 도큐멘테이션 전략의 적용)

  • Seol, Moon-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.26
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    • pp.103-149
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    • 2010
  • Documentation strategy has been experimented in various subject areas and local regions since late 1980's when it was proposed as archival appraisal and selection methods by archival communities in the United States. Though it was criticized to be too ideal, it needs to shed new light on the potentialities of the strategy for documenting local regions in digital environment. The purpose of this study is to analyse the implementation issues of documentation strategy and to suggest the directions for documenting local regions of Korea through the application of the strategy. The documentation strategy which was developed more than twenty years ago in mostly western countries gives us some implications for documenting local regions even in current digital environments. They are as follows; Firstly, documentation strategy can enhance the value of archivists as well as archives in local regions because archivist should be active shaper of history rather than passive receiver of archives according to the strategy. It can also be a solution for overcoming poor conditions of local archives management in Korea. Secondly, the strategy can encourage cooperation between collecting institutions including museums, libraries, archives, cultural centers, history institutions, etc. in each local region. In the networked environment the cooperation can be achieved more effectively than in traditional environment where the heavy workload of cooperative institutions is needed. Thirdly, the strategy can facilitate solidarity of various groups in local region. According to the analysis of the strategy projects, it is essential to collect their knowledge, passion, and enthusiasm of related groups to effectively implement the strategy. It can also provide a methodology for minor groups of society to document their memories. This study suggests the directions of documenting local regions in consideration of current archival infrastructure of Korean as follows; Firstly, very selective and intensive documentation should be pursued rather than comprehensive one for documenting local regions. Though it is a very political problem to decide what subject has priority for documentation, interests of local community members as well as professional groups should be considered in the decision-making process seriously. Secondly, it is effective to plan integrated representation of local history in the distributed custody of local archives. It would be desirable to implement archival gateway for integrated search and representation of local archives regardless of the location of archives. Thirdly, it is necessary to try digital documentation using Web 2.0 technologies. Documentation strategy as the methodology of selecting and acquiring archives can not avoid subjectivity and prejudices of appraiser completely. To mitigate the problems, open documentation system should be prepared for reflecting different interests of different groups. Fourth, it is desirable to apply a conspectus model used in cooperative collection management of libraries to document local regions digitally. Conspectus can show existing documentation strength and future documentation intensity for each participating institution. Using this, documentation level of each subject area can be set up cooperatively and effectively in the local regions.

Construction and Application of Intelligent Decision Support System through Defense Ontology - Application example of Air Force Logistics Situation Management System (국방 온톨로지를 통한 지능형 의사결정지원시스템 구축 및 활용 - 공군 군수상황관리체계 적용 사례)

  • Jo, Wongi;Kim, Hak-Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2019
  • The large amount of data that emerges from the initial connection environment of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is a major factor that distinguishes the Fourth Industrial Revolution from the existing production environment. This environment has two-sided features that allow it to produce data while using it. And the data produced so produces another value. Due to the massive scale of data, future information systems need to process more data in terms of quantities than existing information systems. In addition, in terms of quality, only a large amount of data, Ability is required. In a small-scale information system, it is possible for a person to accurately understand the system and obtain the necessary information, but in a variety of complex systems where it is difficult to understand the system accurately, it becomes increasingly difficult to acquire the desired information. In other words, more accurate processing of large amounts of data has become a basic condition for future information systems. This problem related to the efficient performance of the information system can be solved by building a semantic web which enables various information processing by expressing the collected data as an ontology that can be understood by not only people but also computers. For example, as in most other organizations, IT has been introduced in the military, and most of the work has been done through information systems. Currently, most of the work is done through information systems. As existing systems contain increasingly large amounts of data, efforts are needed to make the system easier to use through its data utilization. An ontology-based system has a large data semantic network through connection with other systems, and has a wide range of databases that can be utilized, and has the advantage of searching more precisely and quickly through relationships between predefined concepts. In this paper, we propose a defense ontology as a method for effective data management and decision support. In order to judge the applicability and effectiveness of the actual system, we reconstructed the existing air force munitions situation management system as an ontology based system. It is a system constructed to strengthen management and control of logistics situation of commanders and practitioners by providing real - time information on maintenance and distribution situation as it becomes difficult to use complicated logistics information system with large amount of data. Although it is a method to take pre-specified necessary information from the existing logistics system and display it as a web page, it is also difficult to confirm this system except for a few specified items in advance, and it is also time-consuming to extend the additional function if necessary And it is a system composed of category type without search function. Therefore, it has a disadvantage that it can be easily utilized only when the system is well known as in the existing system. The ontology-based logistics situation management system is designed to provide the intuitive visualization of the complex information of the existing logistics information system through the ontology. In order to construct the logistics situation management system through the ontology, And the useful functions such as performance - based logistics support contract management and component dictionary are further identified and included in the ontology. In order to confirm whether the constructed ontology can be used for decision support, it is necessary to implement a meaningful analysis function such as calculation of the utilization rate of the aircraft, inquiry about performance-based military contract. Especially, in contrast to building ontology database in ontology study in the past, in this study, time series data which change value according to time such as the state of aircraft by date are constructed by ontology, and through the constructed ontology, It is confirmed that it is possible to calculate the utilization rate based on various criteria as well as the computable utilization rate. In addition, the data related to performance-based logistics contracts introduced as a new maintenance method of aircraft and other munitions can be inquired into various contents, and it is easy to calculate performance indexes used in performance-based logistics contract through reasoning and functions. Of course, we propose a new performance index that complements the limitations of the currently applied performance indicators, and calculate it through the ontology, confirming the possibility of using the constructed ontology. Finally, it is possible to calculate the failure rate or reliability of each component, including MTBF data of the selected fault-tolerant item based on the actual part consumption performance. The reliability of the mission and the reliability of the system are calculated. In order to confirm the usability of the constructed ontology-based logistics situation management system, the proposed system through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which is a representative model for measuring the acceptability of the technology, is more useful and convenient than the existing system.

Individual Thinking Style leads its Emotional Perception: Development of Web-style Design Evaluation Model and Recommendation Algorithm Depending on Consumer Regulatory Focus (사고가 시각을 바꾼다: 조절 초점에 따른 소비자 감성 기반 웹 스타일 평가 모형 및 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.171-196
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    • 2018
  • With the development of the web, two-way communication and evaluation became possible and marketing paradigms shifted. In order to meet the needs of consumers, web design trends are continuously responding to consumer feedback. As the web becomes more and more important, both academics and businesses are studying consumer emotions and satisfaction on the web. However, some consumer characteristics are not well considered. Demographic characteristics such as age and sex have been studied extensively, but few studies consider psychological characteristics such as regulatory focus (i.e., emotional regulation). In this study, we analyze the effect of web style on consumer emotion. Many studies analyze the relationship between the web and regulatory focus, but most concentrate on the purpose of web use, particularly motivation and information search, rather than on web style and design. The web communicates with users through visual elements. Because the human brain is influenced by all five senses, both design factors and emotional responses are important in the web environment. Therefore, in this study, we examine the relationship between consumer emotion and satisfaction and web style and design. Previous studies have considered the effects of web layout, structure, and color on emotions. In this study, however, we excluded these web components, in contrast to earlier studies, and analyzed the relationship between consumer satisfaction and emotional indexes of web-style only. To perform this analysis, we collected consumer surveys presenting 40 web style themes to 204 consumers. Each consumer evaluated four themes. The emotional adjectives evaluated by consumers were composed of 18 contrast pairs, and the upper emotional indexes were extracted through factor analysis. The emotional indexes were 'softness,' 'modernity,' 'clearness,' and 'jam.' Hypotheses were established based on the assumption that emotional indexes have different effects on consumer satisfaction. After the analysis, hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 were accepted and hypothesis 4 was rejected. While hypothesis 4 was rejected, its effect on consumer satisfaction was negative, not positive. This means that emotional indexes such as 'softness,' 'modernity,' and 'clearness' have a positive effect on consumer satisfaction. In other words, consumers prefer emotions that are soft, emotional, natural, rounded, dynamic, modern, elaborate, unique, bright, pure, and clear. 'Jam' has a negative effect on consumer satisfaction. It means, consumer prefer the emotion which is empty, plain, and simple. Regulatory focus shows differences in motivation and propensity in various domains. It is important to consider organizational behavior and decision making according to the regulatory focus tendency, and it affects not only political, cultural, ethical judgments and behavior but also broad psychological problems. Regulatory focus also differs from emotional response. Promotion focus responds more strongly to positive emotional responses. On the other hand, prevention focus has a strong response to negative emotions. Web style is a type of service, and consumer satisfaction is affected not only by cognitive evaluation but also by emotion. This emotional response depends on whether the consumer will benefit or harm himself. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the difference of the consumer's emotional response according to the regulatory focus which is one of the characteristics and viewpoint of the consumers about the web style. After MMR analysis result, hypothesis 5.3 was accepted, and hypothesis 5.4 was rejected. But hypothesis 5.4 supported in the opposite direction to the hypothesis. After validation, we confirmed the mechanism of emotional response according to the tendency of regulatory focus. Using the results, we developed the structure of web-style recommendation system and recommend methods through regulatory focus. We classified the regulatory focus group in to three categories that promotion, grey, prevention. Then, we suggest web-style recommend method along the group. If we further develop this study, we expect that the existing regulatory focus theory can be extended not only to the motivational part but also to the emotional behavioral response according to the regulatory focus tendency. Moreover, we believe that it is possible to recommend web-style according to regulatory focus and emotional desire which consumers most prefer.

Development of Beauty Experience Pattern Map Based on Consumer Emotions: Focusing on Cosmetics (소비자 감성 기반 뷰티 경험 패턴 맵 개발: 화장품을 중심으로)

  • Seo, Bong-Goon;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.179-196
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the "Smart Consumer" has been emerging. He or she is increasingly inclined to search for and purchase products by taking into account personal judgment or expert reviews rather than by relying on information delivered through manufacturers' advertising. This is especially true when purchasing cosmetics. Because cosmetics act directly on the skin, consumers respond seriously to dangerous chemical elements they contain or to skin problems they may cause. Above all, cosmetics should fit well with the purchaser's skin type. In addition, changes in global cosmetics consumer trends make it necessary to study this field. The desire to find one's own individualized cosmetics is being revealed to consumers around the world and is known as "Finding the Holy Grail." Many consumers show a deep interest in customized cosmetics with the cultural boom known as "K-Beauty" (an aspect of "Han-Ryu"), the growth of personal grooming, and the emergence of "self-culture" that includes "self-beauty" and "self-interior." These trends have led to the explosive popularity of cosmetics made in Korea in the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets. In order to meet the customized cosmetics needs of consumers, cosmetics manufacturers and related companies are responding by concentrating on delivering premium services through the convergence of ICT(Information, Communication and Technology). Despite the evolution of companies' responses regarding market trends toward customized cosmetics, there is no "Intelligent Data Platform" that deals holistically with consumers' skin condition experience and thus attaches emotions to products and services. To find the Holy Grail of customized cosmetics, it is important to acquire and analyze consumer data on what they want in order to address their experiences and emotions. The emotions consumers are addressing when purchasing cosmetics varies by their age, sex, skin type, and specific skin issues and influences what price is considered reasonable. Therefore, it is necessary to classify emotions regarding cosmetics by individual consumer. Because of its importance, consumer emotion analysis has been used for both services and products. Given the trends identified above, we judge that consumer emotion analysis can be used in our study. Therefore, we collected and indexed data on consumers' emotions regarding their cosmetics experiences focusing on consumers' language. We crawled the cosmetics emotion data from SNS (blog and Twitter) according to sales ranking ($1^{st}$ to $99^{th}$), focusing on the ample/serum category. A total of 357 emotional adjectives were collected, and we combined and abstracted similar or duplicate emotional adjectives. We conducted a "Consumer Sentiment Journey" workshop to build a "Consumer Sentiment Dictionary," and this resulted in a total of 76 emotional adjectives regarding cosmetics consumer experience. Using these 76 emotional adjectives, we performed clustering with the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method. As a result of the analysis, we derived eight final clusters of cosmetics consumer sentiments. Using the vector values of each node for each cluster, the characteristics of each cluster were derived based on the top ten most frequently appearing consumer sentiments. Different characteristics were found in consumer sentiments in each cluster. We also developed a cosmetics experience pattern map. The study results confirmed that recommendation and classification systems that consider consumer emotions and sentiments are needed because each consumer differs in what he or she pursues and prefers. Furthermore, this study reaffirms that the application of emotion and sentiment analysis can be extended to various fields other than cosmetics, and it implies that consumer insights can be derived using these methods. They can be used not only to build a specialized sentiment dictionary using scientific processes and "Design Thinking Methodology," but we also expect that these methods can help us to understand consumers' psychological reactions and cognitive behaviors. If this study is further developed, we believe that it will be able to provide solutions based on consumer experience, and therefore that it can be developed as an aspect of marketing intelligence.

Color Analyses on Digital Photos Using Machine Learning and KSCA - Focusing on Korean Natural Daytime/nighttime Scenery - (머신러닝과 KSCA를 활용한 디지털 사진의 색 분석 -한국 자연 풍경 낮과 밤 사진을 중심으로-)

  • Gwon, Huieun;KOO, Ja Joon
    • Trans-
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    • v.12
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    • pp.51-79
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the methods for deriving colors which can serve as a reference to users such as designers and or contents creators who search for online images from the web portal sites using specific words for color planning and more. Two experiments were conducted in order to accomplish this. Digital scenery photos within the geographic scope of Korea were downloaded from web portal sites, and those photos were studied to find out what colors were used to describe daytime and nighttime. Machine learning was used as the study methodology to classify colors in daytime and nighttime, and KSCA was used to derive the color frequency of daytime and nighttime photos and to compare and analyze the two results. The results of classifying the colors of daytime and nighttime photos using machine learning show that, when classifying the colors by 51~100%, the area of daytime colors was approximately 2.45 times greater than that of nighttime colors. The colors of the daytime class were distributed by brightness with white as its center, while that of the nighttime class was distributed with black as its center. Colors that accounted for over 70% of the daytime class were 647, those over 70% of the nighttime class were 252, and the rest (31-69%) were 101. The number of colors in the middle area was low, while other colors were classified relatively clearly into day and night. The resulting color distributions in the daytime and nighttime classes were able to provide the borderline color values of the two classes that are classified by brightness. As a result of analyzing the frequency of digital photos using KSCA, colors around yellow were expressed in generally bright daytime photos, while colors around blue value were expressed in dark night photos. For frequency of daytime photos, colors on the upper 40% had low chroma, almost being achromatic. Also, colors that are close to white and black showed the highest frequency, indicating a large difference in brightness. Meanwhile, for colors with frequency from top 5 to 10, yellow green was expressed darkly, and navy blue was expressed brightly, partially composing a complex harmony. When examining the color band, various colors, brightness, and chroma including light blue, achromatic colors, and warm colors were shown, failing to compose a generally harmonious arrangement of colors. For the frequency of nighttime photos, colors in approximately the upper 50% are dark colors with a brightness value of 2 (Munsell signal). In comparison, the brightness of middle frequency (50-80%) is relatively higher (brightness values of 3-4), and the brightness difference of various colors was large in the lower 20%. Colors that are not cool colors could be found intermittently in the lower 8% of frequency. When examining the color band, there was a general harmonious arrangement of colors centered on navy blue. As the results of conducting the experiment using two methods in this study, machine learning could classify colors into two or more classes, and could evaluate how close an image was with certain colors to a certain class. This method cannot be used if an image cannot be classified into a certain class. The result of such color distribution would serve as a reference when determining how close a certain color is to one of the two classes when the color is used as a dominant color in the base or background color of a certain design. Also, when dividing the analyzed images into several classes, even colors that have not been used in the analyzed image can be determined to find out how close they are to a certain class according to the color distribution properties of each class. Nevertheless, the results cannot be used to find out whether a specific color was used in the class and by how much it was used. To investigate such an issue, frequency analysis was conducted using KSCA. The color frequency could be measured within the range of images used in the experiment. The resulting values of color distribution and frequency from this study would serve as references for color planning of digital design regarding natural scenery in the geographic scope of Korea. Also, the two experiments are meaningful attempts for searching the methods for deriving colors that can be a useful reference among numerous images for content creator users of the relevant field.

Structural features and Diffusion Patterns of Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence using Social Network analysis (인공지능 기술에 관한 가트너 하이프사이클의 네트워크 집단구조 특성 및 확산패턴에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sunah;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.107-129
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    • 2022
  • It is important to preempt new technology because the technology competition is getting much tougher. Stakeholders conduct exploration activities continuously for new technology preoccupancy at the right time. Gartner's Hype Cycle has significant implications for stakeholders. The Hype Cycle is a expectation graph for new technologies which is combining the technology life cycle (S-curve) with the Hype Level. Stakeholders such as R&D investor, CTO(Chef of Technology Officer) and technical personnel are very interested in Gartner's Hype Cycle for new technologies. Because high expectation for new technologies can bring opportunities to maintain investment by securing the legitimacy of R&D investment. However, contrary to the high interest of the industry, the preceding researches faced with limitations aspect of empirical method and source data(news, academic papers, search traffic, patent etc.). In this study, we focused on two research questions. The first research question was 'Is there a difference in the characteristics of the network structure at each stage of the hype cycle?'. To confirm the first research question, the structural characteristics of each stage were confirmed through the component cohesion size. The second research question is 'Is there a pattern of diffusion at each stage of the hype cycle?'. This research question was to be solved through centralization index and network density. The centralization index is a concept of variance, and a higher centralization index means that a small number of nodes are centered in the network. Concentration of a small number of nodes means a star network structure. In the network structure, the star network structure is a centralized structure and shows better diffusion performance than a decentralized network (circle structure). Because the nodes which are the center of information transfer can judge useful information and deliver it to other nodes the fastest. So we confirmed the out-degree centralization index and in-degree centralization index for each stage. For this purpose, we confirmed the structural features of the community and the expectation diffusion patterns using Social Network Serice(SNS) data in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021'. Twitter data for 30 technologies (excluding four technologies) listed in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021' were analyzed. Analysis was performed using R program (4.1.1 ver) and Cyram Netminer. From October 31, 2021 to November 9, 2021, 6,766 tweets were searched through the Twitter API, and converting the relationship user's tweet(Source) and user's retweets (Target). As a result, 4,124 edgelists were analyzed. As a reult of the study, we confirmed the structural features and diffusion patterns through analyze the component cohesion size and degree centralization and density. Through this study, we confirmed that the groups of each stage increased number of components as time passed and the density decreased. Also 'Innovation Trigger' which is a group interested in new technologies as a early adopter in the innovation diffusion theory had high out-degree centralization index and the others had higher in-degree centralization index than out-degree. It can be inferred that 'Innovation Trigger' group has the biggest influence, and the diffusion will gradually slow down from the subsequent groups. In this study, network analysis was conducted using social network service data unlike methods of the precedent researches. This is significant in that it provided an idea to expand the method of analysis when analyzing Gartner's hype cycle in the future. In addition, the fact that the innovation diffusion theory was applied to the Gartner's hype cycle's stage in artificial intelligence can be evaluated positively because the Gartner hype cycle has been repeatedly discussed as a theoretical weakness. Also it is expected that this study will provide a new perspective on decision-making on technology investment to stakeholdes.

An Exploratory Study on Marketing of Financial Services Companies in Korea (한국 금융회사 마케팅 현황에 대한 탐색 연구)

  • Chun, Sung Yong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.111-133
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    • 2010
  • Marketing financial services used to be easier. Today, the competition in financial services is fierce. Not only has the competition become more intense, financial services have also changed structurally. In an environment with various customer needs and severe competitions, the marketing in financial services industry is getting more difficult and more important than before. However, there are still not enough studies on financial services marketing in Korea whereas lots of research papers have been published frequently in some international journals. The purpose of this paper is (1)to review the literature on financial services marketing, (2)to investigate current marketing activities based on in-depth interview with financial marketing managers in Korea, and (3)to suggest some implications for future research on the financial services marketing. Financial products are not consumer products. In fact, they are not products at all in the way product marketing is usually described. Nor are they altogether like services. The financial industry operates in a unique way, and its marketing tasks are correspondingly complex. However, the literature review shows that there has been a lack of basic studies which dealt with inherent characteristics of financial services marketing compared to the research on marketing in other industries. Many studies in domestic marketing journals have so far focused only on the general customer behaviors and the special issues in some financial industries. However, for more effective financial services marketing, we have to answer following questions. Is there any difference between financial service marketing and consumer packaged goods marketing? What are the differences between the financial services marketing and other services marketing such as education and health services? Are there different ways of marketing among banks, securities firms, insurance firms, and credit card companies? In other words, we need more detailed research as well as basic studies about the financial services marketing. For example, we need concrete definitions of financial services marketing, bank marketing, securities firm marketing, and etc. It is also required to compare the characteristics of each marketing within the financial services industry. The products sold in each market have different characteristics such as duration and degree of risk-taking. It means that there are sub-categories in financial services marketing. We have to consider them in the future research on the financial services marketing. It is also necessary to study customer decision making process in the financial markets. There have been little research on how customers search and process information, compare alternatives, make final decision, and repeat their choices. Because financial services have some unique characteristics, we need different understandings in the customer behaviors compared to the behaviors in other service markets. And also considering the rapid growth in financial markets and upcoming severe competition between domestic and global financial companies, it is time to start more systematic and detailed research on financial services marketing in Korea. In the second part of this paper, I analyzed the results of in-depth interview with 20 marketing managers of financial services companies in Korea. As a result, I found that the role of marketing departments in Korean financial companies are mainly focused on the short-term activities such as sales support, promotion, and CRM data analysis although the size and history of marketing departments to some extent show a sign of maturity. Most companies established official marketing departments before 2001. Average number of employees in a marketing department is about 58. However, marketing managers in eight companies(40% of the sample) still think that the purpose of marketing is only to support and manage general sales activities. It shows that some companies have sales-oriented concept rather than marketing-oriented concept. I also found three key words which marketing managers think importantly in financial services markets. They are (1)Trust in customer relationship, (2)Brand differentiation, and (3)Rapid response to customer needs. 50% of the sample support that "Trust" is the most important key word in the financial services marketing. It is interesting that 80% of banks and securities companies think that "Trust" is the most important thing, whereas managers in credit card companies consider "Rapid response to customer needs" as the most important key word in their market. In addition, there are different problems recognition of marketing managers depending on the types of financial industries they belong to. For example, in the case of banks and insurance companies, marketing managers consider "a lack of communication with other departments" as the most serious problem. On the other hand, in the case of securities firms, "a lack of utilization of customer data" is the most serious problem. These results imply that there are different important factors for the customer satisfaction depending on the types of financial industries, and managers have to consider them when marketing financial products in more effective ways. For example, It will be necessary for marketing managers to study different important factors which affect customer satisfaction, repeat purchase, degree of risk-taking, and possibility of cross-selling according to the types of financial industries. I also suggested six hypothetical propositions for the future research.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.