• 제목/요약/키워드: Seaborne Trade Volume

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지수평활법과 SUR 모형을 통한 세계 해상물동량 예측 연구 (A Study on the Prediction of the World Seaborne Trade Volume through the Exponential Smoothing Method and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model)

  • 안영균
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제44권2호
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2019
  • This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

품목별 해상 물동량이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향 요인분석 (Factor Analysis of Seaborne Trade Volume Affecting on The World Economy)

  • 안영균;이민규;박주동
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제42권2호
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    • pp.277-296
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    • 2017
  • 전 세계 수출입 물동량 중 95% 이상이 해상 수송되고 있다. 이처럼 세계 무역에서 해상 수송이 차지하는 비중이 매우 높다는 점에 주목하여, 본 연구는 해상 물동량과 세계 경제(세계 GDP) 간의 회귀분석을 수행함으로써 상관관계를 추정하였다. 즉, 패널 데이터 분석과 확률효과 모형 분석을 통해 품목별 해상 물동량이 세계 경제 성장에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 실증 분석하였다. 분석 과정에서 해상 물동량을 10개 품목별로 분류하고, 해당 품목의 무역량 변화에 따라 세계 GDP가 얼마만큼 영향을 받는지 추정하였다. 이와 더불어 그랜저 인과성 검정을 수행하여 해상 물동량과 세계 GDP 변수 간의 선후 관계를 검증하고, LR(Likelihood ratio) 검정을 실시하여 확률효과 모형을 통해 회귀분석 하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 정부의 무역 관련 정책을 수립하는 데 많은 도움을 줄 것으로 기대된다.

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개입 승법계절 ARIMA와 인공신경망모형을 이용한 해상운송 물동량의 예측 (Forecasting the Seaborne Trade Volume using Intervention Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Model)

  • 김창범
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2015
  • 본고는 개입 승법계절 ARIMA모형과 인공신경망모형을 이용하여 해상운송 물동량을 추정하고 사전적 예측치를 도출하였다. 개입 ARIMA의 추정결과 오차항에서 자기상관이 존재하지 않고 정규성이 존재함으로써 오차항의 기본가정이 잘 충족되고 있음을 확인하였다. 그리고 개입 승법계절 ARIMA모형과 인공신경망모형에 대해 예측실적 오류를 ME, MAE, RMSE, MSE로 측정한 결과 ARIMA $(2,1,0)(1,0,1)_{12}$이 가장 우수한 예측모형임을 확인할 수 있었다. 2015년부터 2019년까지의 기간에 대해 개입 ARIMA모형을 이용한 해상운송 물동량의 사전적 예측치 결과 4.54%에서 4.99%의 연평균 증가율을 보였고, 인공신경망모형을 이용한 예측결과 2.00%에서 2.44%까지의 연평균 증가율을 나타냈다.

우리나라 비상사태시 소요물동량 및 선종별 소요선대 추정 연구 (A Study on the Estimation of Required Seaborne Trade Volume and Carrier Volume of Each Vessel Type in Case of Emergency)

  • 안영균
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제45권1호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • The maritime industry is important for Korean international trade, as more than 99 percent of its imports and exports are moved by maritime transportation. However, if maritime transportation is stopped in the event of an emergency, such as war or natural disaster, there is a danger that imports and exports may cease abruptly. Coping with this risk is why the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, manages the 'National Necessary Shipping System.' This system requires that the government estimates the size of ships necessary in the case of an emergency, and the ships designated as National Necessary Vessels should transport goods in the case of actual emergencies. This study seeks to estimate the appropriate size of ships required in an emergency using the latest data and applying a quantitative methodology. This study provides useful reference materials for policy authorities. In particular, it is meaningful that this study estimates the required number of ships of each vessel type, reflecting the recent trend of large-scale ships and expanding global trade.

중국 품목별 수출입이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향 실증분석 (The Impacts of Chinese Seaborne Trade Volume on The World Economy)

  • 안영균;이민규
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제42권6호
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    • pp.111-129
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    • 2017
  • 세계은행 통계에 따르면 2013~2016년 기간 중 세계 경제 성장에 대한 중국의 기여도는 31.6%인 것으로 나타났다. 이는 미국, EU 및 일본의 기여도를 합한 29.0%에 비해 높은 수치로서 중국 경제가 세계 경제에 미치는 영향력이 상당히 크다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 중국의 주요 품목별(화학제품, 곡물, 철재, 원유, 컨테이너) 연도별 수출입 해상물동량이 세계 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 시계열 데이터 분석 모형을 적용하여 분석하였다. 총 분석기간은 1999~2016년이며, 제1기(1999~2007년)와 제2기(2008~2016년)의 시기별 분석을 수행함으로써 중국 무역이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향력 측면에서 시기별로 어떠한 구조적 변화가 발생했는지 조명하였다. 특히 대다수 선행연구들이 세계 무역이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향력을 분석하였다면, 본 연구는 중국 무역의 영향력을 분석하여 세계 무역 대국으로 부상하고 있는 중국을 집중적으로 분석하였다는 데 의의가 있다.

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공적분·벡터오차수정모형을 활용한 벙커유 가격의 장기균형 수렴에 관한 실증분석 (An Empirical Analysis on the Long-term Balance of Bunker Oil Prices Using the Co-integration Model and Vector Error Correction Model)

  • 안영균;이민규
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제44권1호
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2019
  • This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

한국연안화물선운실태의 분석 (An Analysis on the Operational Status of the Korea Coastal Cargo Vessel)

  • 우창기;이철영
    • 한국항해학회지
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.1-38
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    • 1987
  • The amount of cargoes by cargo vessels has increased tremendously during the last decade due to the great growth of korea economy. But in spite of this trend, there is rarely the substantial analyzed on the operational status of coastal shipping. In this paper, the characteristics of seaborne cargo and traffic flow of coastal shipping surveyed in detail through the statistical and the origintain and destination (O.D) analysis. Also, the basic ship's tonnage of coastal shipping representing the minimum tonnage which is capable of carrying the given seaborne cargo is suggested through the computer simulation using the data of 1985 year. The results are as follows; 1) the about 80% of total coastal traffic volume is going in/out to the port of Incheon, Busan, Pohang, Samil, Bukpyung, Mukho, Samchuk, and Jeju. 2) The main cargo items such as oil, iron material, cement, anthracite grain, fertilizer, other ore are reached to the about 70% of total amount of coastal trade. 3) ship's tonnage going in/out to the port of Bukpyiung, Busan, Pohang is increasing linearly year by year, and the amount of oil, iron material, cement, anthracite, grain, fertilizer, other ore are also increasing in linear pattern. 4) As a result of simulation, the optimum (basic) ship's tonnage.

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한국연안의 해상교통류분석(I) (Macroscopic Analysis of Traffic Flow in the Korean Coastal Waterway)

  • 이철영;문성혁;최종화;박양기
    • 한국항해학회지
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.31-55
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    • 1986
  • Generally, the development of shipping is characterized by the amount of traffic flow (traffic volume) and seaborne cargo in the sea. Movement of ships is an essential element of constructing the traffic flow which is represented the dynamic movement of ships in the sea, but on the other band the numbers of arriving and departing the port is the basic factor consisting of the static movement of ships. The amount of cargoes by coastal vessels and ocean trade vessels have increased tremendously with the great growth of the Korean economy these days. This increase of the seaborne cargoes has made the Korean coastal traffic flow so congested that this can be a cause of large pollution as well as great marine casualities such as a loss of human lives and properties . And also the future coastal traffic is expected to increase considerably according to our economic development and high dependence upon foreign trade. Under the circumstance, to devise the safety of coastal traffic flow and to take a proper step of a efficient navigation, there is a necessity for analyzing and surveying the coastal traffic trend and the characteristics of cargo movement. In order to grasp the dynamic movement of ships in the Korean coast, O/D analysis is executed. This paper aims to secure the basic data necessary for a comprehensive plan and estimation of vessel traffic management system for the enhancement of safety, order and efficiency of vessel traffic in the Korean coast. The analyzed results of the traffic flow and seaborne cargoes of the Korean coast are summarized as follows : 1) The congestion by the vessels occurred around the ports such as-in proportion of ship's number (proportion of tonnage) -Incheon 18.5%(14.8%), Pohang 5.9% (9.9%), Samil 5.2%(8.3%), Mokpo 8.6%(0.8%), Pusan 13.5%(36.4%), Ulsan 9.1%(16.2%). 2) It is found that the area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed thatthe area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed that the coastal vessels are main elements constituting the coastal traffic and that there are much traffic flow among five ports as following through the precise O/D analysis of ship's coastal movement. Incheon-Samil, Ulsan, Pusan, Jeju Pusan -Samil, Ulsan, Incheon, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Inchoen, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Ulsan -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Samil -Ulsan, Pusan, Incheon 4) The amount of cargoes to abroad are in proportion about 81% of total and the amount of coastal cargoes are about 19%. Of those, cargoes in and out to Japan are about 26% and to South-east Asia are about 27%. 5) The chief items of foreign cargoes are oil(38.33%), iron ore(13.98%), bituminoous coal(12.74%), grain(8.02%), lumber(6.45%) in the import cargoes and steel material(21.96%), cement(17.16%), oil(6.81%), fertilizer(3.80%) in the export cargoes. 6) The 80.5% of total export cargoes and 92.4% of total import cargoes are flowed in five main ports. 7) The chief items of coastal cargoes are oil (42.45%), cement(16.86%), steel material (6.49%), anthracite(6.31%), mineral product(4.3%), grain, and fertilizer. Almost 92.24% of total import and export oil cargoes in Korea is loaded and unloaded at the port of Samil & Ulsan.

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케이프사이즈 용선료에 미치는 영향 요인분석 (Factor Analysis Affecting on the Charterage of Capesize Bulk Carriers)

  • 안영균;이민규
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.125-145
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    • 2018
  • 발틱해운거래소는 건화물 해상무역 지수인 BDI(Baltic Dry Index) 지수를 발표하고 있는데, BDI 지수는 철광석, 석탄, 곡물 등 주요 건화물을 운송하는 벌크선박의 평균 용선료를 의미한다. 현재 BDI 산출의 기초가 되는 용선료 데이터는 케이프사이즈 40%, 파나막스 30%, 스프라막스 30%의 비중으로 반영되고 있다. 이처럼 케이프사이즈는 건화물 시장을 구성하는 다양한 사이즈의 선박 중에서도 대장 역할을 담당하고 있다. 본 연구는 벡터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model; VECM)을 활용하여 변수 간의 인과관계를 검증하였으며, 이를 통해 케이프사이즈 용선료에 영향을 미치는 변수 간의 장기균형모델을 도출하고자 하였다. 분석결과, 케이프사이즈 선복량 1% 증가시 용선료 0.08% 감소, 엔달러 환율 1% 증가시 0.01% 감소, 세계 GDP 1% 증가시 0.02% 증가, 철광석과 석탄 물동량 1% 증가시 각각 0.11%, 0.09% 증가, 벙커유 가격 1% 증가시 0.04% 증가하는 실증분석 결과를 계측하였다. 벌크선 중 핸디막스, 파나막스급 활용도가 낮아지고 상대적으로 케이프사이즈의 활용도가 높아지고 있는데 본 연구는 케이프사이즈를 대상으로 하여 분석을 수행하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

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원거리의 물과 오일을 구별할 수 있는 UV형광측정시스템 개발과 분석에 대한 연구 (Long Distance Identification of Water and Oil using an Ultraviolet Fluorescence Measurement System)

  • 백경훈;이준석;전수정;박보람;박성욱
    • 센서학회지
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.266-270
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    • 2022
  • Owing to the rising volume of seaborne trade, oil spills damage the marine environment for over 250 yearly. Thus, various analysis methods such as the Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), Raman spectroscope, and gas chromatography are used to monitor oil spills at sea, but these methods are expensive. Recently, to reduce operational costs, an underwater fluorometer was adopted. However, this approach is not ideal for the remote sensing of oil spills because the device gets submerged in the sea. In this study, we have designed and developed a monitoring system that uses ultraviolet fluorescence to detect spilled oil or water from a distance, as well as proposed an analyzing method defining based on water Raman signal and QF535. Each fluorescence spectrum of water, oil (crude oil), and Bunker A was obtained using the system, and was calculated and analyzed from the spectrum individually. Based on the results of the analysis, we could successfully identity water and oil at a long distance.