• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario-based Simulation Model

검색결과 234건 처리시간 0.023초

A Numerical Kano Model for Compliance Customer Needs with Product Development

  • Rashid, Md. Mamunur;Tamaki, Jun'ichi;Sharif Ullah, A.M.M.;Kubo, Akihiko
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
    • /
    • 제10권2호
    • /
    • pp.140-153
    • /
    • 2011
  • Functional form and dysfunctional form of Kano model are considered as customer need regarding attribute of product. Both functional and dysfunctional forms are: Like, Must-be Neutral, Live-with and Dislike. The answers of customer regarding a product of functional and dysfunctional forms have been applied for selection of customer needs regarding product attribute (Kano evaluation). Filling.up and returning the Questionnaires by the individuals are essential for determining Kano evaluation. But many Questionnaires have not been returned in that case. Moreover, many possible consumers could not get opportunity to fill-up questionnaire. These uncertain or unknown consumers' opinions are also essential for product development. The choices of Kano evaluations have been outlined by: Attractive, One-dimensional, Must-be, Indifferent and Reverse. In this study, choices of evaluation of unknown customer are considered uniform cumulative vector probability (scenario 1). This study is based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, concept of probability and Kano model. This model has also been tested for its soundness and found fairly consistent including existing Kano model (scenario 2) and case survey for headlight of bicycle (scenario 3).

농업용 저수지 수질모델 (ARSIM-rev) 개발 및 적용 (Development and Application of Agricultural Reservoir Water Quality Simulation Model (ARSIM-rev))

  • 함종화;김동환;김형중;김미옥
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제54권6호
    • /
    • pp.65-76
    • /
    • 2012
  • Agricultural reservoir water quality simulation model (ARSIM-rev) was developed in this study for water quality simulation of a small and shallow agricultural reservoir with limited observed water quality data. Developed ARSIM-rev is a zero-dimensional water quality model because of little spatial differences in water quality between stations in a small and shallow agricultural reservoir. ARSIM-rev used same water quality reaction equations with WASP except for several equations, and daily based input parameters such as settling rate, release rate from sediment, and light extinction coefficient changed yearly based input parameters in ARSIM-rev. A number of pre- and post-processors were developed such as auto calibration and scenario analysis for ARSIM-rev. CE-QUAL-W2, WASP, and developed ARSIM-rev were applied to Mansu agricultural reservoir to evaluate model performance, and ARSIM-rev demonstrated similar model performance with CE-QUAL-W2 and WASP when low number of observed data was used for agricultural reservoir water quality simulation. Overall, developed ARSIM-rev was feasible for water quality simulation in a small and shallow agricultural reservoir with limited observed water quality data, and it can simulate agricultural reservoir water quality precisely enough like common water quality model such as CE-QUAL-W2 and WASP within a limited time.

DEVS-based Modeling Methodology for Cybersecurity Simulations from a Security Perspective

  • Kim, Jiyeon;Kim, Hyung-Jong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • 제14권5호
    • /
    • pp.2186-2203
    • /
    • 2020
  • Security administrators of companies and organizations need to come up with proper countermeasures against cyber-attacks considering infrastructures and security policies in their possession. In order to develop and verify such countermeasures, the administrators should be able to reenact both cyber-attacks and defenses. Simulations can be useful for the reenactment by overcoming its limitations including high risk and cost. If the administrators are able to design various scenarios of cyber-attacks and to develop simulation models from their viewpoints, they can simulate desired situations and observe the results more easily. It is challenging to simulate cyber-security issues, because there is lack of theoretical basis for modeling a wide range of the security field as well as pre-defined basic components used to model cyber-attacks. In this paper, we propose a modeling method for cyber-security simulations by developing a basic component and a composite model, called Abstracted Cyber-Security Unit Model (ACSUM) and Abstracted Cyber-security SIMulation model (ACSIM), respectively. The proposed models are based on DEVS(Discrete Event systems Specification) formalism, a modeling theory for discrete event simulations. We develop attack scenarios by sequencing attack behaviors using ACSUMs and then model ACSIMs by combining and abstracting the ACSUMs from a security perspective. The concepts of ACSUM and ACSIM enable the security administrators to simulate numerous cyber-security issues from their viewpoints. As a case study, we model a worm scenario using ACSUM and simulate three types of simulation models based on ACSIM from a different security perspective.

Analysis of future flood inundation change in the Tonle Sap basin under a climate change scenario

  • Lee, Dae Eop;Jung, Sung Ho;Yeon, Min Ho;Lee, Gi Ha
    • 농업과학연구
    • /
    • 제48권3호
    • /
    • pp.433-446
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용 (Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation)

  • 유승환;최진용;남원호;김태곤;고광돈
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제54권2호
    • /
    • pp.67-75
    • /
    • 2012
  • Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

선박 기관시스템 보조기기의 상태기반 고장진단/예측을 위한 고장 모사 데이터베이스 구축 (A Study on the Development of a Failure Simulation Database for Condition Based Maintenance of Marine Engine System Auxiliary Equipment)

  • 김정영;이태현;이송호;이종직;신동민;이원균;김용진
    • 대한조선학회논문집
    • /
    • 제59권4호
    • /
    • pp.200-206
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study is to develop database by an experimental method for the development of condition based maintenance for auxiliary equipment in marine engine systems. Existing ships have been performing regular maintenance, so the actual measurement data development is very incomplete. Therefore, it is best to develop a database on land tests. In this paper, a database developed by an experimental method is presented. First, failure case analysis and reliability analysis were performed to select a failure mode. For the failure simulation test, a test bed for land testing was developed. The failure simulation test was performed based on the failure simulation scenario in which the failure simulation test plan was defined. A 1.5TB failure simulation database has been developed, and it is expected to serve as a basis for ship failure diagnosis and prediction algorithm model development.

Implementation of an Operator Model with Error Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Control Room Operation

  • Suh, Sang-Moon;Cheon, Se-Woo;Lee, Yong-Hee;Lee, Jung-Woon;Park, Young-Taek
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
    • /
    • pp.349-354
    • /
    • 1996
  • SACOM(Simulation Analyser with Cognitive Operator Model) is being developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute to simulate human operator's cognitive characteristics during the emergency situations of nuclear power plans. An operator model with error mechanisms has been developed and combined into SACOM to simulate human operator's cognitive information process based on the Rasmussen's decision ladder model. The operational logic for five different cognitive activities (Agents), operator's attentional control (Controller), short-term memory (Blackboard), and long-term memory (Knowledge Base) have been developed and implemented on blackboard architecture. A trial simulation with a scenario for emergency operation has been performed to verify the operational logic. It was found that the operator model with error mechanisms is suitable for the simulation of operator's cognitive behavior in emergency situation.

  • PDF

유고상황 시 MatSIM을 활용한 도시부 도로네트워크 운영 분석 (Application of Multi-Agent Transport Simulation for Urban Road Network Operation in Incident Case)

  • 김주영;유연승;이승재;허혜정;성정곤
    • 한국도로학회논문집
    • /
    • 제14권4호
    • /
    • pp.163-173
    • /
    • 2012
  • PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to check the possibilities of traffic pattern analysis using MatSIM for urban road network operation in incident case. METHODS : One of the stochastic dynamic models is MatSIM. MatSIM is a transportation simulation tool based on stochastic dynamic model and activity based model. It is an open source software developed by IVT, ETH zurich, Switzerland. In MatSIM, various scenario comparison analyses are possible and analyses results are expressed using the visualizer which shows individual vehicle movements and traffic patterns. In this study, trip distribution in 24-hour, traffic volume, and travel speed using MatSIM are similar to those of measured values. Therefore, results of MatSIM are reasonable comparing with measured values. Traffic patterns are changed according to incident from change of individual behavior. RESULTS : The simulation results and the actual measured values are similar. The simulation results show reasonable ranges which can be used for traffic pattern analysis. CONCLUSIONS : The change of traffic pattern including trip distribution, traffic volumes and speeds according to various incident scenarios can be used for traffic control policy decision to provide effective operation of urban road network.

SIMVA를 이용한 시뮬레이션 기반의 네트워크 취약성 분석 (Simulation-based Network Vulnerability Analysis Using the SIMVA)

  • 유용준;이장세;지승도
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
    • /
    • 제13권3호
    • /
    • pp.21-29
    • /
    • 2004
  • The major objective of this paper is to analyze network vulnerabilities using the SIMVA (SIMualtion-based Vulnerability Analyzer). SIMVA is capable of monitor network status and analyze vulnerabilities automatically. To do this, we have employed the advanced modeling and simulation concepts such as SES/MB (System Entity Structure / Model Base) framework, DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) formalism, and experimental frame for developing network security models and simulation-based analysis of vulnerability. SIMVA can analyze static vulnerability as well as dynamic vulnerability consistently and quantitatively. In this paper, we verified and tested the capability of application of SIMVA by slammer worm attack scenario.

  • PDF

지향각 명령 오차를 고려한 망원경 탐지 성능 분석 (Detection Performance Analysis of the Telescope considering Pointing Angle Command Error)

  • 이호진;이상욱
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제21권1호
    • /
    • pp.237-243
    • /
    • 2017
  • 본 논문에서는 인공위성을 비롯한 우주물체 관측 및 감시를 위한 전자광학 관측 장비인 망원경의 탐지 성능에 대한 분석을 수행한다. M&S(Modeling & Simulation)를 통한 분석을 위해, 위성 궤도 모델, 망원경 모델, 그리고 지구 대기 모델을 구현하고, 위성을 관측하는 탐지 시나리오를 구성한다. 탐지 시나리오를 바탕으로 지향각 명령 오차를 적용하여 망원경 주요 사양인 시야각(Field of View, FOV)에 따른 지향 성능을 분석하고, 신호대잡음비(Signal-to-Noise Ratio, SNR)를 통해 탐지 여부를 판별하여 검출기 화소수와 시야각(FOV)에 따른 탐지 성능을 분석한다. 본 논문의 M&S 분석 결과는 망원경 시야각(FOV)이 상대적으로 클수록 지향각 명령 오차가 존재하더라도 지향 성능은 좋지만, 대기 환경의 영향으로 화소수가 높고 망원경 시야각(FOV)이 작을수록 탐지 성능이 높아짐을 보여준다. 그래서 시야각(FOV)과 화소수 등의 망원경 주요 사양은 본 논문에서 수행한 M&S 분석 결과 및 종합적인 운용 상황을 고려하여 결정해야 한다.