• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario tree method

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On Multiple ETA-based Test Framework to Enhance Safety Maturity of Live Fire Tests for Weapon Systems (무기체계 실사격 시험의 안전성 강화를 위한 다중 사건나무분석 기반의 시험구조에 관한 연구)

  • Ye, Sung Hyuck;Lee, Jae-Chon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2015
  • Successful development of weapon systems requires a stringent verification and validation (V&V) process due to the nature of the weapons in which continual increase of operational capability makes the system requirements more complicated to meet. Thus, test and evaluation (T&E) of weapon systems is becoming more difficult. In such a situation, live fire tests appear to be effective and useful methods in not only carrying out V&V of the weapon systems under development, but also increasing the maturity of the end users operability of the system. However, during the process for live fire tests, a variety of accidents or mishaps can happen due to explosion, pyro, separation, and so on. As such, appropriate means to mitigate mishap possibilities should be provided and applied during the live fire tests. To study a way of how to accomplish it is the objective of this paper. To do so, top-level sources of hazard are first identified. A framework for T&E is also described. Then, to enhance the test range safety, it is discussed how test scenarios can be generated. The proposed method is based on the use of the anticipatory failure determination (AFD) and multiple event tree analysis (ETA) in analyzing range safety. It is intended to identify unexpected hazard components even in the environment with constraints. It is therefore expected to reduce accident possibilities as an alternative to the traditional root-cause analysis.

Study on the Fire Safety Estimation for a Pilot LNG Storage Tank (PILOT LNG저장탱크의 화재안전성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 고재선;김효
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2004
  • Quantitative safety analysis through a fault tree method has been conducted for a fire broken out over the spilling LNG from a pilot LNG tank, which may have 4 types of scenarios causing potentially risky results. When we consider LNG release from venting pipelines as a first event, any specific radius of Low Flammable Limit(LFL) has not been built up. The second case of LNG outflow from the rupture of storage tank which will be the severest has been analyzed and the results revealed various diffusion areas to the leaking times even with the same amount of LNG release. As a third case LNG leakage from the inlet/outlet pipelines was taken into consider. The results showed no significant differences of LFL radii between the two spilling times of 10 and 60 minutes. Hence, we have known the most affecting factor on the third scenario is an initial amount of LNG release. Finally, the extent of LFL was calculated when LNG pipelines around the dike area were damaged. In addition, consequence analysis has been also performed to acquire the heat radiation and flame magnitude for each case.

Process Hazard Review and Consequence Effect Analysis for the Release of Chlorine Gas from Its Storage Tank (염소저장탱크에서의 가스 누출시 공정위험검토 및 결과영향분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2003
  • Most of the accidents occurred from the chemical plants are related to the catastrophic gas release events when the large amount of toxic materials is leaked from its storage tank or transmitting pipe lines. In this case, the greatest concerns are how the spreading behaviors of leakages are depended on the ambient conditions such as air stability and other environmental factors. Hence, we have focused on the risk assessments and consequential analysis for chlorine as an illustrative example. As appeared in the result, Fire & Explosion Index depicted it a bit dangerous with presenting the comprehensive degrees of hazard 90.7. And as a result of Phast6.0/ALOHA, the trends of each scenario appeared considerably identical although there are some differences in the resulting effects according to the input data for the Gas Model. The consequence analysis is performed numerically based on the dense gas mode. In the future, using more correct input data, material properties, and topographical configuration, the method of this research will be useful for the guideline of the risk assessment when the release of toxicants breaks out.

Context-Awareness Modeling Method using Timed Petri-nets (시간 페트리 넷을 이용한 상황인지 모델링 기법)

  • Park, Byung-Sung;Kim, Hag-Bae
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.36 no.4B
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    • pp.354-361
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    • 2011
  • Increasing interest and technological advances in smart home has led to active research on context-awareness service and prediction algorithms such as Bayesian Networks, Tree-Dimensional Structures and Genetic prediction algorithms. Context-awareness service presents that providing automatic customized service regarding individual user's pattern surely helps users improve the quality of life. However, it is difficult to implement context-awareness service because the problems are that handling coincidence with context information and exceptional cases have to consider. To overcome this problem, we proposes an Intelligent Sequential Matching Algorithm(ISMA), models context-awareness service using Timed Petri-net(TPN) which is petri-net to have time factor. The example scenario illustrates the effectiveness of the Timed Petri-net model and our proposed algorithm improves average 4~6% than traditional in the accuracy and reliability of prediction.

A Study of The Determinants of Turnover Intention and Organizational Commitment by Data Mining (데이터마이닝을 활용한 이직의도와 조직몰입의 결정요인에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Young Joon;Shim, Won Shul;Baek, Seung Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2014
  • In this article, data mining simulation is applied to find a proper approach and results of analysis for study of variables related to organization. Also, turnover intention and organizational commitment are used as target (dependent) variables in this simulation. Classification and regression tree (CART) with ensemble methods are used in this study for simulation. Human capital corporate panel data of Korea Research Institute for Vocation Education & Training (KRIVET) is used. The panel data is collected in 2005, 2007, and 2009. Organizational commitment variables are analyzed with combined measure variables which are created after investigation of reliability and single dimensionality for multiple-item measurement details. The results of this study are as follows. First, major determinants of turnover intention are trust, communication, and talent management-oriented trend. Second, the main determining factors for organizational commitment are trust, the number of years worked, innovation, communication. CART with ensemble methods has two ensemble CART methods which are CART with Bagging and CART with Arcing. Comparing two methods, CART with Arcing (Arc-x4) extracted scenarios with very high coefficients of determination. In this study, a scenario with maximum coefficient of determinant and minimum error is obtained and practical implications are presented. Using one of data mining methods, CART with ensemble method. Also, the limitation and future research are discussed.

A Study on the Techniques of Path Planning and Measure of Effectiveness for the SEAD Mission of an UAV (무인기의 SEAD 임무 수행을 위한 임무 경로 생성 및 효과도 산출 기법 연구)

  • Woo, Ji Won;Park, Sang Yun;Nam, Gyeong Rae;Go, Jeong Hwan;Kim, Jae Kyung
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.304-311
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    • 2022
  • Although the SEAD(suppression to enemy air defenses) mission is a strategically important task in modern warfare, the high risk of direct exposure to enemy air defense assets forces to use of unmanned aerial vehicles. this paper proposes a path planning algorithm for SEAD mission for an unmanned aerial vehicle and a method for calculating the mission effectiveness on the planned path. Based on the RRT-based path planning algorithm, a low-altitude ingress/egress flight path that can consider the enemy's short-range air defense threat was generated. The Dubins path-based Intercept path planning technique was used to generate a path that is the shortest path while avoiding the enemy's short-range anti-aircraft threat as much as possible. The ingress/intercept/egress paths were connected in order. In addition, mission effectiveness consisting of fuel consumption, the survival probability, the time required to perform the mission, and the target destruction probability was calculated based on the generated path. The proposed techniques were verified through a scenario.