• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario planning

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Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management

  • Paul, Virendra Kumar;Basu, Chaitali
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2016
  • This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

게임시나리오 기획에 관한 연구 (A study on the planing of game scenario)

  • 이재홍
    • 한국게임학회 논문지
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2003
  • 좋은 게임은 독특하고 개성이 뚜렷한 콘텐츠에서 얻어진다. 게임의 콘텐츠는 게임시나리오로 표현되는 만큼, 게임개발은 시나리오창작 작업이 선행되어야 한다. 게임시나리오의 창작은 시나리오기획서로 결과가 나와야 한다. 기획서는 게임개발을 위한 설계도이기 때문이다. 그러나 게임을 제작하는 회사에서나 게임을 교육하고 있는 학계에서는 제대로 된 게임시나리오의 기획서를 쓰지 않고 있는 형편이다. 물론 게임기획서에 시나리오를 대충 삽입시켜버 리는 우리의 게임제작 습성도 한 몫을 하고 있지만, 가장 큰 문제점은 제대로 된 게임시나리오기획서의 서식이 없기 때문이기도 하다. 본고에서는 기획서의 서식에 들어갈 내용들을 간단하게나마 연구하여, 게임 기획서의 기본 서식의 틀을 제안해 보는 것이 목적이다.

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시나리오 플래닝을 통한 국내 전자결제 산업의 활성화 전략 : 간편결제를 중심으로 (The Activation Strategy of Electronic Payment Industry Using Scenario Planning : Focusing Simple Payment)

  • 한재진;조근태
    • 경영과학
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.59-75
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    • 2016
  • The domestic simple payment service was not activated yet compared to foreign countries and there are many things to complement in the legal, institutional, and technical aspects. The future image of the domestic electronic payment propulsion was considered by the scenario planning focusing on the simple payment. Total 6 future scenarios were drawn through the scenario planning, and 3 major strategy directions for attaining the preferred future scenario were drawn. This study drew a meaningful scenario through various analyses and industry specialist questionnaire about the future of the simple payment service which will be a crucial change of the domestic electronic payment under the uncertain future situation, and suggested an implication for the government and every interested party who provides the industrial service to prepare for the future.

차세대에너지시스템 구축을 위한 친환경 도시계획 시나리오 검토 (An Analysis of Examination of Eco-City Planning Scenario for Constructing Urban Integrated Energy System)

  • 여인애;이정재;윤성환
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.181-184
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    • 2009
  • This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.

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조선 공정 계획을 위한 시뮬레이션 모델의 모듈화 및 시나리오 처리 방법론 (Methods for the Modularization of Simulation Model and the Management Scheme of Simulation Scenario for Shipbuilding Process Planning)

  • 차주환;구남국;노명일;조두연;이규열
    • 한국CDE학회논문집
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2012
  • Recently, requests for accurate process planning using simulation have been increasing in many engineering fields including the shipbuilding industry, and many application systems for simulation have been developed. It is difficult, however, for a user to reuse the developed systems, because simulation models in the system are defined by its own method. In addition, the simulation model should be modified whenever a simulation sequence, which is called simulation scenario, is changed. Therefore, in this study, an elementary simulation object is proposed to modularize a simulation model. And the management scheme of simulation scenario is proposed to manage the scenario outside of the simulation models. Also, a simulation template is proposed to increase the development efficiency. To verify the efficiency of the proposed methods, application examples for shipbuilding process planning are implemented.

DEVELOPING U-CITY MARKET SCENARIOS THROUGH A SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH

  • Yong-Ho Kwon;Jae-Jun Kim;Suk-Hee Han;Jin-Sik Kim;Yoon-Sun Lee
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2007
  • The u-City construction project has become a hot topic in the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because environments of the future business for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this uncertain planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market in S.Korea through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Finally, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. Construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic reference for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.

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멀티미디어 컨텐츠 디자인 프로세스에서의 시나리오 활용에 관한 연구 - 인터넷 쇼핑몰 “Shop 'n' Chat“의 컨텐츠 디자인 사례연구를 중심으로 (A Study on Scenario-Centered Design Process for Multimedia Contents Planning & Design - through a Case Study of Contents design of Internet Shopping Mall "Shop 'n' Chat")

  • 김현정
    • 디자인학연구
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2002
  • 최근 사용자 중심의 디자인 패러다임이 확대되면서 멀티미디어 컨텐츠를 기획하는 프로세스에도 시나리오 중심 디자인 개념이 도입되어 활용되기 시작하고 있다. 그러나, 멀티미디어의 개념은 포괄적이어서 다양한 종류의 최종 물을 지칭하고 있다. 또한, 멀티미디어에 있어 사용의 개념은 제품에 있어서의 사용의 개념과는 다소 다르다. 따라서, 멀티미디어의 종류와 특성에 따라 디자인 프로세스를 이해하고, 그에 맞는 시나리오 활용 방법에 대해 보다 명확히 수립할 필요가 있다. 이 연구에서는 멀티미디어의 종류와 특성에 따라 다른 시나리오의 개념을 정의하고, 이 중 인터렉티브 웹 또는 CD-rom을 위한 컨텐츠 디자인에 있어 시나리오 중심 디자인 프로세스를 수립, 사례를 통해 실제 적용하는 방법을 보이기 위해 진행되었다. 이 논문은 크게 세 부분으로 구성된다. 첫째, 문헌과 자료 조사를 통한 멀티미디어 컨텐츠의 종류와 이에 따른 시나리오의 개념과 디자인 프로세스 상에서 시나리오 활용방식을 이해한다. 둘째, 멀티미디어 제품에 해당하는 인터렉티브 웹 또는 CD-rom의 컨텐츠 기획 & 디자인 프로세스에 있어 시나리오의 활용 방법에 대한 프레임?을 수립한다. 그리고, 마지막으로, 새로운 개념의 인터넷 쇼핑몰인 "Shop & Chat" 의 컨셉수립과 컨텐츠 구성, 인터페이스 디자인 과정에서 시나리오 기반 프로세스를 적용한 사례연구를 진행한다. 이 연구는 멀티미디어를 인간이 사용하는 제품으로 인식하고, 사용자 중심 디자인을 위해 시나리오를 활용하는 프레임?을 제안하였다. 이것은 디자이너가 최종 물만이 아니라 디자인된 최종 물이 미래 상황에서 어떻게 사용될 것인지를 포함하는 사용 시나리오를 디자인하는 방법을 도입한 것으로써, 멀티미디어 컨텐츠를 사용자 중심으로 디자인을 하기 위한 발상 전환의 프레임 을 제시한 것으로서 의의가 깊다고 하겠다.

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THE RESEARCH ON CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF LNG PLANT PROJECT PLANNING EXPERT SYSTEM

  • Moon-Sun Park;Young-Ai Kim;Seung-Wook Lee;Sung-Ryul Bae;Hyun-Wook Kang;Byoung-Jun Min;Yong-Su Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.1570-1575
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this research is to propose the conceptual model of Scenario-based Project Planning Expert System which has not been used in domestic LNG plant industry. This research examines data on the plant project planning expert system of domestic and oversea, analyzes the components of project planning expert systems and benchmark excellent cases. The conceptual model of LNG plant project planning expert system is established through the procedure as has been noted above. The results of this research are as follows: First, this research draws out such components of LNG plant project planning expert system as feasibility, cost control, contract management and risk management. Second, this research proposes the conceptual model of LNG plant project planning expert system which core module is consist of feasibility evaluation, life cycle cost evaluation and decision making. Finally, each module of LNG plant project planning expert system would be integrated into the Scenario-based Project Planning Expert System.

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시나리오 플래닝기법을 활용한 한.중 FTA 체결이후의 한의서비스 시장 분석 및 대응전략 (Analysis of Korean Medicine Market and Strategies after the conclusion of a Korea-China FTA through the Scenario Planning Approach)

  • 김정민;임병묵;신미숙
    • 대한예방한의학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2012
  • Objectives : This study aimed to analyze the fundamentals of a Korea-China FTA and suggest strategies for Korean medicine market that correspond with each scenario selected from foreseen circumstances after the conclusion of the FTA through the scenario planning, which is one of management techniques. Methods : Four scenarios have been established by means of key questions : the scope of FTA, health care policies, and the combination of western medicine(WM) and Korean medicine(KM). Each scenario is defined as the Maximized Competitive Market, Neutral Market, General Completive Market, and Conservative Market. This study suggests brand marketing, extending of health insurance coverage, launching local network, and strategy for Korean medicine based health promotion programs. Results and Conclusions : Although Korean medicine could be prompted by the trade policies between countries, related studies are very limited. Therefore, more research is needed to suggest the detailed strategies for change of Korean medicine market through various strategic analysis tools.

시나리오 기반의 생태마을 계획 및 설계 지원 GIS도구 개발 (Development of a Scenario-based GIS Tool for Planning and Design of Eco-Village)

  • 박성우;김두순;안경모
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2013
  • A tool to assist in designing an eco-village was developed using GIS(Geographical Information System) and RS(Remote Sensing) data and images. The difficulties of using GIS by untrained designers are resolved by simplifying the usage and making it a user friendly scenario-based tool, so that the designers with limited knowledge in GIS can use as a design tool. For this task, Da-Mu-Po, a village in Pohang, Gyeongbuk was picked as a site to test the design tool; through planning and designing as an eco friendly village, we tested the flexibility and usability of our newly developed design tool. From this experiment we also introduced test version of stand-alone GIS design tool by constructing program scenario and GUI(Graphic User Interface).