• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario options

검색결과 32건 처리시간 0.028초

불확실성과 누적환경영향하에서의 환경영향평가를 위한 방법론의 새로운 개발 (New Development of Methods for Environmental Impact Assessment Facing Uncertainty and Cumulative Environmental Impacts)

  • Pietsch, Jurgen
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 1995
  • At both international and national levels, such as in the Rio Declaration and the EU's Fifth Environmental Action Plan, governments have committed themselves to the adoption of the precautionary principle (UNCED 1992, CEC 1992). These commitments mean that the existence of uncertainty in appraising policies and proposals for development should be acknowledged. Uncertainty arise in both the prediction of impacts and in the evaluation of their significance, particularly of those cumulative impacts which are individually insignificant but cumulatively damaging. The EC network of EIA experts, stated at their last meeting in Athens that indirect effects and the treatment of uncertainty are one of the main deficiencies of current EIA practice. Uncertainties in decision-making arise where choices have been made in the development of the policy or proposal, such as the selection of options, the justification for that choice, and the selection of different indicators to comply with different regulatory regimes. It is also likely that a weighting system for evaluating significance will have been used which may be implicit rather than explicit. Those involved in decision-making may employ different tolerances of uncertainty than members of the public, for instance over the consideration of the worst-case scenario. Possible methods for dealing with these uncertainties include scenarios, sensitivity analysis, showing points of view, decision analysis, postponing decisions and graphical methods. An understanding of the development of cumulative environmental impacts affords not only ecologic but also socio-economic investigations. Since cumulative impacts originate mainly in centres of urban or industrial development, in particular an analysis of future growth effects that might possibly be induced by certain development impacts. Not least it is seen as an matter of sustainability to connect this issue with ecological research. The serious attempt to reduce the area of uncertainty in environmental planning is a challenge and an important step towards reliable planning and sustainable development.

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Economic Evaluation of Coupling APR1400 with a Desalination Plant in Saudi Arabia

  • Abdoelatef, M. Gomaa;Field, Robert M.;Lee, YongKwan
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.73-87
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    • 2016
  • Combining power generation and water production by desalination is economically advantageous. Most desalination projects use fossil fuels as an energy source, and thus contribute to increased levels of greenhouse gases. Environmental concerns have spurred researchers to find new sources of energy for desalination plants. The coupling of nuclear power production with desalination is one of the best options to achieve growth with lower environmental impact. In this paper, we will per-form a sensitivity study of coupling nuclear power to various combinations of desalination technology: {1} thermal (MSF [Multi-Stage Flashing], MED [Multi-Effect Distillation], and MED-TVC [Multi-Effect Distillation with Thermal Vapour Compression]); {2} membrane RO [Reverse Osmosis]; and {3} hybrid (MSF-RO [Multi-Stage Flashing & Reverse Osmosis] and MED-RO [Multi-Effect Distillation & Reverse Osmosis]). The Korean designed reactor plant, the APR1400 will be modeled as the energy production facility. The economical evaluation will then be executed using the computer program DEEP (Desalination Economic Evaluation Program) as developed by the IAEA. The program has capabilities to model several types of nuclear and fossil power plants, nuclear and fossil heat sources, and thermal distillation and membrane desalination technologies. The output of DEEP includes levelized water and power costs, breakdowns of cost components, energy consumption, and net saleable power for any selected option. In this study, we will examine the APR1400 coupled with a desalination power plant in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as a prototypical example. The KSA currently has approximately 20% of the installed worldwide capacity for seawater desalination. Utilities such as power and water are constructed and run by the government. Per state practice, economic evaluation for these utilities do not consider or apply interest or carrying cost. Therefore, in this paper the evaluation results will be based on two scenarios. The first one assumes the water utility is under direct government control and in this case the interest and discount rate will be set to zero. The second scenario will assume that the water utility is controlled by a private enterprise and in this case we will consider different values of interest and discount rates (4%, 8%, & 12%).

중소규모 보관창고의 자동화를 위한 프레임워크 연구 (A Study for Small and Medium Warehouses Automation Framework)

  • 신재영;김환성;박종원
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2017년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.74-75
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    • 2017
  • 보관창고의 운영과 작업은 노동집약적으로 보관창고의 자동화는 기업의 생산형태의 변화와 구매자의 요구에 맞춰 작업시간을 단축하고 비용을 절감하기 위한 노력으로 이루어진다. 보관창고는 규모와 형태에 따라 여러 종류가 있으며 보관창고에서 사용되는 장비와 설비들도 목적과 용도에 따라 다양하다. 보관 자동화를 위해서는 운영시스템의 도입이 필수적이라고 할 수 있으며 이는 장비의 종류와 운영 방침에 따라 다양한 형태가 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 중소규모의 보관창고의 자동화를 위해서 필요한 요건들을 살펴보고 효과적인 자동화시스템을 도입하기 위한 장비 선택과 운영시스템의 선택사항들을 시나리오로 구분하도록 한다. 이에 따라 각 시나리오별로 시뮬레이션을 실시하여 자동화의 효과를 알아보고 자동화 도입을 위한 비용을 통하여 경제성 분석을 통해 자동화의 효과를 검증하도록 한다.

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이산화탄소 해양지중저장 처리를 위한 파이프라인 수송시스템의 열-유동 해석 (Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Pipeline Transport System for Marine Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide)

  • 허철;강성길;홍섭;최종수;백종화
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2008
  • The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which is one of the major greenhouse gases, continues to rise with the increase in fossil fuel consumption. In order to mitigate global warming the amount of CO2 discharge to the atmosphere must be reduced. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is now regarded as one of the most promising options. To complete the carbon cycle in a CCS system, a huge amount of captured CO2 from major point sources such as power plantsshould be transported for storage into the marine or ground geological structures. Since 2005, we have developed technologies for marine geological storage of CO2,including possible storage site surveys and basic design of CO2 transport and storage process. In this paper, the design parameters which will be useful to construct on-shore and off-shore CO2 transport systems are deduced and analyzed. To carry out this parametric study, we suggested variations in thedesign parameters such as flow rate, diameter, temperature and pressure, based on a hypothetical scenario. We also studied the fluid flow behavior and thermal characteristics in a pipeline transport system.

전력부문 온실가스 감축정책 평가를 위한 상향식 모형화 방안 (A Study on Constructing Bottom-up Model for Electric Sector)

  • 김후곤;백천현;정용주;안영환
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.114-129
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    • 2016
  • 국가온실가스 감축 로드맵을 통해 2020년 BAU 대비 약 30%의 온실가스감축을 목표로 하고 있는데, 전력부문의 경우 가장 많은 온실가스 배출을 하고 있어서 감축잠재량 산정에 매우 중요한 부문이다. 전력부문의 경우 온실가스 감축을 위해 수요관리, 전원믹스개선, 연료전환 등과 신재생에너지 비중 확대 등의 정책 및 기술확산 등을 통해 2020년 온실가스 감축 목표달성을 하게 된다. 이처럼 매우 복잡한 전력부문 온실가스 감축 정책 수립 및 평가를 위해 대부분의 국가에서는 상향식 모형 또는 하향식 모형을 이용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 전력부문 상향식 모형의 일반적인 현황 및 적용방안에 대해서 알아보고, 이를 위해 전력부문의 가장 큰 특징인 구간부하(load region)을 분석하고, 이를 이용하여 수력 및 양수 등을 모형화하는 방안을 제시한다. 또한 전력부문에 대한 상향식 기반의 BAU 모형을 제안하고, 이 모형을 이용하는데 필요한 데이터 및 이슈들을 정리한다.

A development of system dynamics model for water, energy, and food nexus (W-E-F nexus)

  • Wicaksono, Albert;Jeong, Gimoon;Kang, Doosun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.220-220
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    • 2015
  • Water, energy, and food security already became a risk that threatens people around the world. Increasing of resources demand, rapid urbanization, decreasing of natural resources and climate change are four major problems inducing resources' scarcity. Indeed, water, energy, and food are interconnected each other thus cannot be analyzed separately. That is, for simple example, energy needs water as source for hydropower plant, water needs energy for distribution, and food needs water and energy for production, which is defined as W-E-F nexus. Due to their complicated linkage, it needs a computer model to simulate and analyze the nexus. Development of a computer simulation model using system dynamics approach makes this linkage possible to be visualized and quantified. System dynamics can be defined as an approach to learn the feedback connections of all elements in a complex system, which mean, every element's interaction is simulated simultaneously. Present W-E-F nexus models do not calculate and simulate the element's interaction simultaneously. Existing models only calculate the amount of water and energy resources that needed to provide food, water, or energy without any interaction from the product to resources. The new proposed model tries to cope these lacks by adding the interactions, climate change effect, and government policy to optimize the best options to maintain the resources sustainability. On this first phase of development, the model is developed only to learn and analyze the interaction between elements based on scenario of fulfilling the increasing of resources demand, due to population growth. The model is developed using the Vensim, well-known system dynamics model software. The results are amount of total water, energy, and food demand and production for a certain time period and it is evaluated to determine the sustainability of resources.

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이중 바닥 온돌 시스템의 응용에 관한 이론적 분석 (Theoretical Analysis on the Applications of the Double-Floor Ondol System)

  • 최원기;이강영;이현근;서승직
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.355-363
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    • 2007
  • The Korean traditional 'Ondol' system has been a target for innovation to meet the requirements of sustainable domestic building and low carbon emission energy utilization. Simulation techniques provide designers and researchers with powerful tools to predict heating load and thermal behaviour of Ondol systems installed in various contexts. However, there are few studies on Ondol models, especially associated with multi-stories buildings of which type covers about 50% of Korean housing stock. In this study, we analyzed the double floor Ondol system on the multi-stories buildings using the ESP-r program. On the basis of the double floor Ondol system, we suggested the new modelling method that is composed of the Vent zone and Ondol zone. Using the this model, sensitivity analysis was carried out to refine the applicability of the model taking account of control conditions, constructions, air change and air flow network method and CFD analysis using the FLUENT. The air layer has enough temperature to use in heating zone. It is suggested that the simplicity of the model will allow building designers and mechanical engineers easily to implement scenario-based assessments of design options as well as control strategies. Later, we will simulate the real buildings and analyze the air distributions using the Fluent according to the various conditions.

Modern Concepts of Restructured Meat Production and Market Opportunities

  • Abdul Samad;AMM Nurul Alam;Swati Kumari;Md. Jakir Hossain;Eun-Yeong Lee;Young-Hwa Hwang;Seon-Tea Joo
    • 한국축산식품학회지
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    • 제44권2호
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    • pp.284-298
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    • 2024
  • Restructured meat (RM) products are gaining importance as an essential component of the meat industry due to consumers' interest in health benefits. RM products imply the binding or holding of meat, meat by-products, and vegetable proteins together to form a meat product with meat's sensory and textural properties. RM products provide consumers with diversified preferences like the intake of low salt, low fat, antioxidants, and high dietary fiber in meat products. From the point of environmental sustainability, RM may aid in combining underutilized products and low-valued meat by adequately utilizing them instead of dumping them as waste material. RM processing technique might also help develop diversified and new hybrid meat products. It is crucial to have more knowledge on the quality issues, selection of binding agents, their optimum proportion, and finally, the ideal processing techniques. It is observed in this study that the most crucial feature of RM could be its healthy products with reduced fat content, which aligns with the preferences of health-conscious consumers who seek low-fat, low-salt, high-fiber options with minimal synthetic additives. This review briefly overviews RM and the factors affecting the quality and shelf life. Moreover, it discusses the recent studies on binding agents in processing RM products. Nonetheless, the recent advancements in processing and market scenarios have been summarized to better understand future research needs. The purpose of this review was to bring light to the ways of sustainable and economical food production.

다중 실물옵션을 활용한 시나리오기반 부동산 개발사업 가치평가 연구 (A Study on the Multiple Real Option Model for Evaluating Values based on Real Estate Development Scenario)

  • 장미경;구요환;최혜미;권태환;김주형;김재준
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.114-122
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    • 2015
  • 많은 부동산 개발 사업에서 초기 사업부지 확보를 통한 토지매입 후 인허가 지연 및 사업비 부족에 따른 지연이 빈번하게 일어나고 있다. 이렇게 사업기간이 길고 외부요인의 변동성에 따라 사업의 성패가 좌우되는 부동산 개발 사업은 미래의 불확실성을 반영한 전략적인 투자가치 평가가 필요하다. 그러나 일반적으로 사용하는 현금흐름할인법(DCF)은 미래의 불확실성을 반영하지 못하는 한계를 지니고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 미래의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있는 실물옵션, 더 나아가 다양한 상황을 고려한 다중 실물옵션을 활용한 가치평가 방법을 제시하여 부동산 개발 사업의 의사결정을 하는 의사결정권자가 전략적이고 유연한 결정을 내릴 수 있도록 도움을 주고자 함이다. 부동산 개발 사업 프로젝트 중 오피스 개발 사업을 선택하여 다중 실물옵션 모델을 적용하고 기존의 현금흐름할인법과 단일 실물옵션 모델의 결과값과 비교하였다. 연구 결과 다중 실물옵션의 가치가 현금흐름할인법과 단일 실물옵션의 가치보다 높게 나타났고, 이러한 상황변화에 따른 유연성이 실물옵션 가치평가에서 사업의 가치를 증가시킴을 알 수 있었다. 의사결정권자는 본 연구와 같이 프로젝트의 가치를 다양한 상황에서 고려함으로써 의사결정의 유연성을 보다 높일 수 있을 것이다.

지리정보 사업의 비용편익 분석의 고찰 (An Approach of Cost-Benefit Analysis for GIS Project Evaluations)

  • 김우관;김영훈
    • 한국지역지리학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 1998
  • 90년대에 들어서 국내에서는 많은 지리정보 사업이 실행되고 있다. 바로 이 시점이 지리정보 사업의 여러 가지 기술개발과 적용, 지리정보 사업의 공공 정책적 접근방법 및 연구가 필요한 시점이라고 본다. 본 연구는 공공기관에서 시행되는 지리정보 사업에 대한 정책적 중요성을 검토하고 정책 분석적 측면에서 사업은 어떻게 평가되어야 하며, 어떤 내용들이 어떠한 절차와 단계를 거쳐 검토되어야 하는가를 연구한 것이다. 이러한 정가와 분석을 위해서 '비용편익 분석'을 하나의 분석방법으로 제시하면서, 이 방법이 지리정보 사업을 평가하는데 어떠한 장정과 단점을 갖는지를 연구했다. 주요 이점은 자료 분석의 용이, 지도 출력 및 수정 변경의 비용 절감 등이 유형의 이점으로 볼 수 있는 반면, 저리정보의 질적 향상과 보다 정확한 지리정보의 관리 및 운영, 의사결정지원 등이 무형의 이점으로 나타났다. 그러나 이러한 이점들은 지리정보 사업 시행 이전의 비용편익 분석에서 효과적으로 분석될 수 있는 부문이 있는 반면, 무형의 이점들은 여전히 비용 편익 개념에서 제대로 파악될 수 없는 경우가 있다. 이러한 문제점들은 향후 연구 과제로써 일반적인 계량적 평가 방법과 아울러 질적인 무형의 이점까지도 평가할 수 있는 다양한 분석 방법 및 평가 수단의 계속적인 연구가 필요하다.

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