• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.32 no.6
• /
• pp.419-428
• /
• 2023

This study estimates the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from energy sector of Changwon city from 2012 to 2020 and scenario analysis of GHGs reductions pathways in the context of the goal of 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon neutral scenario in Korea. As a result, the GHG emissions as a reference year of carbon neutral in 2018 were estimated as 8,872,641 tonCO_2eq accounting for 3,851,786 tonCO_2eq (43.6%) of direct source (scope 1) and 4,975,855 tonCO_2eq (56.4%) of indirect source (scope 2). Especially, among indirect sources as purchased electricity, manufacturing sector emitted the largest GHG accounting for 33.0%(2,915 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, scenario analysis of GHG reductions potential from the energy was analyzed 8,473,614 tonCO_2eq and the residual emissions were 354,027 tonCO_2eq. Purchased electricity and industry sector reducted the largest GHG accounting for 58.7%(4,976 thousands tonCO_2eq) and 42.1%(3,565 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, respectively.

• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.53-65
• /
• 2012

Objectives : This study aimed to analyze the fundamentals of a Korea-China FTA and suggest strategies for Korean medicine market that correspond with each scenario selected from foreseen circumstances after the conclusion of the FTA through the scenario planning, which is one of management techniques. Methods : Four scenarios have been established by means of key questions : the scope of FTA, health care policies, and the combination of western medicine(WM) and Korean medicine(KM). Each scenario is defined as the Maximized Competitive Market, Neutral Market, General Completive Market, and Conservative Market. This study suggests brand marketing, extending of health insurance coverage, launching local network, and strategy for Korean medicine based health promotion programs. Results and Conclusions : Although Korean medicine could be prompted by the trade policies between countries, related studies are very limited. Therefore, more research is needed to suggest the detailed strategies for change of Korean medicine market through various strategic analysis tools.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.71-85
• /
• 2014

This study proposes the future strategy of semiconductor companies corresponding to the growth of cloud computing. Cloud computing is the delivery of IT resources such as hardware and software as a service rather than a product, and it is expected to significantly change the IT market. By employing the scenario planning method, this study develops a total of eight scenario cases, and presents the three possible scenarios including the best market, the worst market, and the neutral market scenario. This study suggests the future strategy of semiconductor companies based on the best market scenario (increasing firms' IT expenditure, increasing the complexity and performance of devices, the frequent replacement of devices). The suggested future strategy of semiconductor includes that the semiconductor companies need to strengthen their price competitiveness, secure the next generation technologies, and develop the better capability for market prediction with the growth of cloud computing. This study will help semiconductor companies set up the strategy direction of technology development, and understand the connections between cloud computing and the memory semiconductor industry. This study has practical implications for semiconductor industry to prepare for the future of cloud computing.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.57 no.3
• /
• pp.225-236
• /
• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.140-153
• /
• 2011

Functional form and dysfunctional form of Kano model are considered as customer need regarding attribute of product. Both functional and dysfunctional forms are: Like, Must-be Neutral, Live-with and Dislike. The answers of customer regarding a product of functional and dysfunctional forms have been applied for selection of customer needs regarding product attribute (Kano evaluation). Filling.up and returning the Questionnaires by the individuals are essential for determining Kano evaluation. But many Questionnaires have not been returned in that case. Moreover, many possible consumers could not get opportunity to fill-up questionnaire. These uncertain or unknown consumers' opinions are also essential for product development. The choices of Kano evaluations have been outlined by: Attractive, One-dimensional, Must-be, Indifferent and Reverse. In this study, choices of evaluation of unknown customer are considered uniform cumulative vector probability (scenario 1). This study is based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, concept of probability and Kano model. This model has also been tested for its soundness and found fairly consistent including existing Kano model (scenario 2) and case survey for headlight of bicycle (scenario 3).

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
• /
• v.8 no.4B
• /
• pp.548-555
• /
• 1999

The NBI (Neutral BGeam Injection) System for the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) is composed of ion sources, neutralizers, bending magnets, ion dumps, and calorimeter. The vacuum chamber, in which all of the beam line components are enclosed, is composed of differential pumping system for the effective transfer of the neutral beams. The needed pumping speeds of each of the divided vacuum chamber and the optimized gas flow rate ot the neutralizer were calculated with the help of the particle balance equations. The minimum gas flow rate to the ion sources for producing needed beam current (120kV, 65A, 78MW), the pressure distributions in the vacuum chamber for minimizing re-ionization loss, and the beam loss rate on the beam line components were used as the input in the calculation. Also the scenario for short pulse operation was determined by analysing the time dependent equations. It showed that beam extraction during less than 0.5 sec could be made only with TMP.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.260-270
• /
• 2008

The economics of manganese nodules mining was assessed based on 36 scenarios which reflect recent changes of the metal market. Those scenarios included optimistic/neutral/pessimistic prospect for the cost, 2 production scales(1.5 MT and 3 MT) and 6 assumptional paths of future metal prices. A large part of scenarios, in which optimistic or neutral prospect for the cost and metal prices were assumed, showed good economic feasibility of the project. For example, 37.12% of Internal Rate of Return(IRR) was obtained in the scenario of 3 MT production, neutral cost prospect and present metal price maintained in the future.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.63-69
• /
• 2023

'Carbon-neutrality Assessment based on Technology Application Scenario (CATAS)' provides an analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction effectiveness when applying carbon-neutrality technology to areas such as energy conversion, transportation, and buildings at certain spatial levels. As for the development scope of the model, GHG emission sources were analyzed for direct GHG emissions, and the boundary between direct and indirect emissions are set according to the spatial scope. The technical scope included nine technologies and forest sinks in the transition sector that occupies the largest portion of GHG emissions in the 2050 carbon neutral scenario. The carbon neutrality rate evaluation methodology consists of four steps: ① analysis of GHG emissions, ② prediction of energy production according to technology introduction, ③ calculation of GHG reduction, and ④ calculation of carbon neutrality rate. After the web-based CATAS-BASIC was developed, an analysis was conducted by applying the new and renewable energy distribution goals presented in the ｢2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Promotion Plan｣ of the Seoul Metropolitan Government. As a result of applying solar power, hydrogen fuel cell, and hydrothermal, the introduction of technology reduced 0.43 million tCO₂eq of 1.49 million tCO₂eq, which is the amount of emissions from the conversion sector in Seoul, and the carbon neutrality rate in the conversion sector was analyzed to be 28.94 %.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2023.05a
• /
• pp.199-199
• /
• 2023

최근 기후변화의 영향으로 가뭄, 홍수 등 재해의 발생 빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있다. 미래에는 온실가스 배출량의 증가로 극한 기상현상은 더욱 심화될 전망이다. 이러한 위험에 효율적으로 대비하기 위해 기후변화 시나리오를 고려하여 미래를 전망하는 것은 매우 중요하며, 최근 연구자들은 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 다양한 시나리오를 적용하고 있는 추세이다. 다만, 기후변화 시나리오를 입력자료로 하여 분석을 수행하는 경우, 새로운 기후변화 시나리오가 생성될 때 기존 기후변화 영향 평가는 무의미해지며, 기존 결과의 신뢰도 또한 감소하게 된다. 지금까지 사용된 시나리오 기반 접근법의 한계를 보완하여 시나리오 중립(Scenario Neutral, SN) 접근법이 개발되었고, 이는 다양한 기후변화 시나리오에 대한 시스템의 반응을 평가하는데 유용하다. 본 연구에서는 시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용하여 가뭄 위험도를 분석하였으며, 이를 위해 금강 유역 내 용담댐 유역을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였다. 입력자료로는 용담댐 유역의 1966~2020년 일단위 강수량 자료를 사용하였고, 문헌 조사를 통해 미래 기후변화에 따른 강수량 변화 추이를 파악하였다. 연평균 강수량의 증가와 여름 강수량의 증가를 기준으로 삼아 증가 비율에 따른 노출 공간을 생성했으며, 목표 변화에 따른 교란된 시계열을 도출해냈다. 이후, 각각의 시계열에 대한 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 수행하여 재현기간을 산정한 뒤, 목표 변화에 따른 위험도를 비교하였다. 그 결과, 연평균 강수량과 여름 강수량이 현재와 유사한 경우 100년 빈도 가뭄이 발생할 확률은 0.84, 연평균 강수량의 증가가 110%, 여름 강수량의 증가가 115%일 경우 100년 빈도 가뭄이 발생할 확률은 0.79이었다. 추후 실제 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 기준치에 따른 만족도를 분석한다면, 가뭄 대응에 유용한 의사결정 도구로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.304-326
• /
• 2023

News shows often deliver crosscutting information to their audiences by inviting commentators from rival political parties. If these news shows foster the formation of informed and balanced views of the audience, mass media could provide countermeasures against political polarization. To test the effect of such news shows, this study conducted an experiment with two variants of a simulated radio talk show. In the partisan scenario, the two guest commentators' affiliations suggested their ideological orientation. In the non-partisan scenario, the commentators had neutral affiliations. We divided participants into two ideology groups, liberals and conservative, and compared each group's evaluation of the commentators in the two scenarios. Two multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) tests were conducted to analyze the effect of the perceived ideology of the commentators on respondents' attitudes toward the commentators' arguments depending on their own ideological inclinations. The analyses results did not support the hypothesis that anticipated partisan attitudes towards the commentators' arguments. It was only the liberal respondents who showed statistically significant different attitudes toward commentators' arguments in each of the two scenarios. The findings suggest that such broadcast shows do not automatically trigger partisan message processing and may help the audience to develop informed and balanced opinions. While the current study failed to find conclusive evidence to support the hypotheses, it also found that the perceived ideology of the information source may trigger partisan attitudes for certain types of issues. Future studies with different experiment designs are needed to investigate the issue further.