• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario based Analysis

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Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level (분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Inhong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

Effectiveness Analysis of BIM-based Architectural Facility Management Scenario (BIM 기반 건축 시설물 유지관리 시나리오 효과 분석)

  • Kang, Tae-Wook;Kim, Ji-Eun;Choi, Hyun-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.10-19
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    • 2016
  • Recently, according to a public order with BIM regulations, various technologies of facility management (FM) have been studied to use BIM data effectively. The technology for BIM-based FM, such as BIM data standard, BIM modeling, BIM server, and BIM-GIS platform, reverse engineering based on 3D image scans is developing constantly. On the other hand, there has been little research on the range of FM based on BIM, the role of actors by management works, the difference, and difference in effects between original FM and BIM-based FM. This study examined the scenario of architectural FM based on BIM and confirmed the effect. For this, after analyzing the research trends, the range of FM applications and the role of actors by management works were defined, and the effectiveness analysis of a BIM-based architectural FM scenario was deduced.

An Integrated Requirements Analysis Method based on Goal and Scenario (목표와 시나리오 기반의 통합적 요구 사항 분석 방안)

  • 김진태;김동선;박수용
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.543-554
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    • 2004
  • In Requirements engineering, requirements elicitation and analysis are very important tasks to develop software systems successfully. Even though various methods have been proposed including scenario-based analysis, goal based analysis, and coupling goal with scenario, each method has its own strengths and weaknesses. If you use only one method, it is very difficult to elicit and to analyze system requirements completely. Since these methods don't support a comprehensive elicitation process, this paper proposes an integrated approach. This integrated approach is focused on two viewpoints. One is what factors are comprised and the other is how they are integrated. This paper also shows how the proposed approach can be applied to Meeting Reservation System (MRS) development. An experiment has been conducted using this approach to demonstrate how complete requirements are elicited and analyzed and to show relative time savings during elicitation in comparison to each method.

Design of Scenario Creation Model for AI-CGF based on Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(I): Evolutionary Learning (해군분석모델용 AI-CGF를 위한 시나리오 생성 모델 설계(I): 진화학습)

  • Hyun-geun, Kim;Jung-seok, Gang;Kang-moon, Park;Jae-U, Kim;Jang-hyun, Kim;Bum-joon, Park;Sung-do, Chi
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2022
  • Military training is an essential item for the fundamental problem of war. However, there has always been a problem that many resources are consumed, causing spatial and environmental pollution. The concepts of defense modeling and simulation and CGF(Computer Generated Force) using computer technology began to appear to improve this problem. The Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(NORAM) developed by the Republic of Korea Navy is also a DEVS(Discrete Event Simulation)-based naval virtual force analysis model. The current NORAM is a battle experiment conducted by an operator, and parameter values such as maneuver and armament operation for individual objects for each situation are evaluated. In spite of our research conducted evolutionary, supervised, reinforcement learning, in this paper, we introduce our design of a scenario creation model based on evolutionary learning using genetic algorithms. For verification, the NORAM is loaded with our model to analyze wartime engagements. Human-level tactical scenario creation capability is secured by automatically generating enemy tactical scenarios for human-designed Blue Army tactical scenarios.

Scenario-Based Earthquake Damage Estimation of Bridge Structures in Daegu City Using Hazus-MH Methodology (Hazus-MH 방법을 이용한 대구시 교량의 시나리오 지진에 의한 피해 예측)

  • Kim, Siyun;Kim, Sung Jig;Chang, Chunho
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2018
  • The paper presents the damage estimation of bridge structures in Daegu city based on the scenario-based earthquakes. Since the fragility curves for domestic bridge strucures are limited, the Hazus methodology is employed to derive the fragility curves and estimate the damage. A total of four earthuquake scenarios near Daegu city are assumed and structure damage is investigated for 81 bridge structures. The seismic fragility function and damage level of each bridge had adopted from the analytical method in HAZUS and then, the damage probability using seismic fragility function for each bridge was evaluated. It was concluded that the seismic damage to bridges was higher when the magnitude of the earthquake was large or nearer to the epicenter.

Derivation of On-site Major Exposure Factor using NDD Analysis when Landfilling NORM Waste (NORM 폐기물 매립 시 NDD 분석을 활용한 부지 내 주요 피폭인자 도출)

  • Ji Hyeon Lim;Shin Dong Lee;Geon Woo Son;Kwang Pyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 2024
  • As part of the social response to the radon bed incident in 2018, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission took measures to collect and dispose of all radon beds. The Waste Management Act provides landfill disposal as one of the disposal methods for natural radioactive product waste, which is one of the NORM wastes. When NORM wastes are landfilled, workers and the public at the landfill site are exposed to radiation through various pathways, such as leaching of radionuclides through soil and groundwater, and multiple exposure factors are involved simultaneously. In order to improve the reliability of radiological impact assessment, the values of main exposure factors should be selected more accurately. Therefore, before developing the main exposure factors for site characteristics, it is necessary to prioritize main exposure factors reflecting domestic characteristics of NORM waste landfills. Therefore, in this study, the main exposure factors for NORM waste landfill were derived using NDD analysis. To derive the main exposure factors, the analysis tool was first selected as RESRAD-ONSITE computer code, and the exposure scenarios were mainly selected as a resident farmer and suburban resident scenario, recreation scenario, and industrial worker scenario. Then, the priority 1 and 2 factors were selected for sensitivity analysis, and a Korean standard model was established to reflect Korean characteristics. Finally, the sensitivity analysis was conducted through NDD, and the main exposure factors were derived based on this. In the resident farmer scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficients of 226Ra, 210Pb, 232Th, 228Ra, 234U, and 238U, as well as precipitation and evapotranspiration factors, were derived as the main exposure factors. In the suburban resident scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficients of 226Ra, 210Pb, 232Th, 228Ra, 234U, and 238U, as well as precipitation and evapotranspiration coefficients, were derived as the main exposure factors. In the recreation scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficient of 232Th was derived as the main exposure factor. For the industrial worker scenario, the erosion rate was derived as the main exposure factor. The main exposure factors for each scenario were analyzed to be different depending on the scenario characteristics. The results of this study can be utilized as a basis for radiological environmental impact assessment of NORM waste landfill in Korea.

Development Plan of Accident Scenario Modeling Based on Seasonal Weather Conditions - Focus on Chlorine Leakage Accident - (계절별 기상조건에 따른 사고시나리오 모델링 발전방안 - 염소 누출사고를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sub;Jeon, Byeong-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.733-738
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we selected chlorine, a typical toxic material used in many workplaces, as the leakage material, and through the analysis of alternative scenarios based on the meteorological conditions in the summer frequently encountered in accidents, we suggest ways to improve the (method of analysis/accident scenario modeling). The analysis of 296 chemical accidents from January 2014 to December 2016 found that the highest rate of occurrence was in summer, accounting for 35.81% of the total. According to the risk assessment, the influence range and number of inhabitants in the influence area were 712.4 m and 20,090 under the annual mean weather conditions and 796.2 m and 27,143 people under the summer mean weather conditions, respectively. This result implies that, under certain conditions, the range of impacts in the current alternative scenario is incomplete. Therefore, risk assessment systems need to be improved in order to take into consideration the characteristics of each chemical substance.

Uncertainty in Scenarios and Its Impact on Post Closure Long Term Safety Assessment in a Potential HLW Repository

  • Y.S. Hwang;Kim, S-K;Kang, C-H
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.108-120
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    • 2003
  • In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

A Study on Future System Construction Using WSCR Strengthness Index based on Python (Python 기반 WSCR 강건 지수를 이용한 미래계통 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Seong-Jun;Hur, Jin;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Cho, Yoon-Sung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.8
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    • pp.994-1001
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, to studied about future power system construction using PSS / E-Python API. Python-based future system automatical construction methods and modeling of renewable sources. it confirmed the stability of the powert system for each renewable area by calculating the weighted short circuit ratio (WSCR) index. it calculated the short circuit ratio (SCR) and selected the transmission line linkage scenario to improve the stability of vulnerable areas. it confirmed the WSCR index improvement through the selected transmission line linkage of scenario, and analyzed the stability of the renewable power system applying the scenario. It describes Facts and Shunt devices adjustment for the load flow convergence. It describes the stable methed of the bus voltage through the transformer Ratio Tap adjustment. By performing PSS/E ASCC using the Python it was performed three-phase short circuit fault capacity analysis, it is confirmed whether excess of the fault current circuit breaker capacity. In order to contingency accident analysis, it have described the generation of one or two line list of each areas using the Python. The list is used to contingency analysis and describe the soluted of the transmission line overload through comparison before and after adding the scenario line.

A Study of Environment Analysis Method for Information Strategy Planning based Scenarios (시나리오 기반의 정보화전략 계획 수립을 위한 환경 분석 방법 연구)

  • Hong, Jin-Woo;Park, Koo-Rack;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.195-203
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    • 2016
  • This paper, which was performed for an environmental analysis step in the information strategy planning, proposes the capable method of building a foundation which can improve the quality of results. An existing environment analyzing method is composed with external environment analysis, internal capacity analysis and information direction deriving activity. At the first stage of environment analysis, with current state analysis, preparation of interview with major stakeholder of project, carrying out the interview, added the activities to gain initial direction of the information. Then it applied a key-questioning of convergence scenario-based analysis for external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis. Performing the external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis with analysis model, convergence application of scenario-based analysis model was enabled to verify information direction on the initial setting. The result was applied at actual project site and was enabled to perform the project quickly, and to improve the quality of project results.