• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario analysis

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PC 이벤트 탐지 기능과 보안 통제 절차를 연계시킨 시나리오 기반 금융정보유출 위험 대응 모델에 관한 연구 (A Study on a Scenario-based Information Leakage Risk Response Model Associated with the PC Event Detection Function and Security Control Procedures)

  • 이익준;염흥열
    • 한국전자거래학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.137-152
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    • 2018
  • 기존 금융정보유출 행위를 탐지하기 위해 보안솔루션에서 생성한 행위 로그를 수집하여 패턴분석으로 정보유출 이상행위를 탐지하고 차단하는 활동에서 발생되는 한계점을 극복하고, 효과적으로 대응하기 위한 방안으로 첫 번째, PC에서 정보유출 경로(외부에서 읽기, 외부로 저장하기, 외부로 전송하기 등)로 이용되는 PC내 실행 프로그램들을 실시간으로 모니터링하고 두 번째, 해당 프로그램이 실행하는 시점에 연관된 보안 통제 프로세스와 상호 연동하여 정상 통제예외 통제우회 행위인지를 파악한 다음 마지막 단계인 시나리오 기반으로 생성한 처리 절차를 통해 금융정보유출 위험을 통제할 수 있는 위험 관리 모델을 제안함으로서 정보 보호 측면의 보안성 강화 및 업무 효율성 향상의 기대효과를 창출하고자 한다.

표적탐지를 위한 소형 SAR 군집위성의 성능지수 분석 (Analysis on Figure of Merits of Small SAR Constellation Satellites for Targets Detection)

  • 송수아;김홍래;장영근
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제47권2호
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    • pp.130-142
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    • 2019
  • 이동식미사일발사대(TEL)와 같은 시한성 긴급표적(TCT)에 대한 선제타격을 위해서는 관심지역(AoI)에서의 발사징후를 포착하는 탐지성능이 중요하다. 탐지성능의 극대화를 위해서는 재방문주기 및 시스템응답주기의 최소화를 위해 가능한 한 다수의 군집위성 전개가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 6~48기의 소형 SAR 군집위성 전개 시 재방문주기와 응답주기의 특성을 분석하였다. 재방문주기는 북한의 전지역 및 특정지역에 대해 분석하였으며, 응답주기는 고정표적을 식별하는 [시나리오 1]과 이동표적을 탐지 및 식별하는 [시나리오 2]로 분류하여 분석을 수행하였다. 특히, [시나리오 2]의 TCT 탐지임무 운용에 대한 응답주기 분석은 특정 면적에 대한 관측 누적 커버리지의 최적화 분석을 통해 수행하였다. 그리고 탐지임무의 최적 성능을 위한 군집궤도 형상을 분석하였다.

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 군집분석을 이용한 지역 특성 분석 (Prediction of Land-cover Change Based on Climate Change Scenarios and Regional Characteristics using Cluster Analysis)

  • 오윤경;최진용;유승환;이상현
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제53권6호
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

Evaluation of Progressive Collapse Resisting Capacity of Tall Buildings

  • Kwon, Kwangho;Park, Seromi;Kim, Jinkoo
    • 국제초고층학회논문집
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.229-235
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    • 2012
  • In this paper the progressive collapse potential of building structures designed for real construction projects were evaluated based on arbitrary column removal scenario using various alternate path methods specified in the GSA guidelines. The analysis model structures are a 22-story reinforced concrete moment frames with core wall building and a 44-story interior concrete core and exterior steel diagrid structure. The progressive collapse resisting capacities of the model structures were evaluated using the linear static, nonlinear static, and nonlinear dynamic analyses. The linear static analysis results showed that progressive collapse occurred in the 22-story model structure when an interior column was removed. However the structure turned out to be safe according to the nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. Similar results were observed in the 44-story diagrid structure. Based on the analysis results, it was concluded that, compared with nonlinear analysis procedures, the linear static method is conservative in the prediction of progressive collapse resisting capacity of building structure based on arbitrary column removal scenario.

FLB Event Analysis with regard to the Fuel Failure

  • Baek, Seung-Su;Lee, Byung-Il;Lee, Gyu-Cheon;Kim, Hee-Cheol;Lee, Sang-Keun
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
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    • pp.622-627
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    • 1996
  • Detailed analysis of Feedwater Line Break (FLB) event for the fuel failure point of view are lack because the event was characterized as the increase in reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure. Up to now, the potential of the rapid system heatup case has been emphasized and comprehensively studied. The cooldown effects of FLB event is considered to be bounded by the Steam Line Break (SLB) event since the cooldown effect of SLB event is larger than that of the FLB event. This analysis provides a new possible path which can cause the fuel failure. The new path means that the fuel failure can occur under the heatup scenario because the Pressurizer Safety Valves (PSVs) open before the reactor trips. The 1000 MWe typical C-E plant FLB event assuming Loss of Offsite Power (LOOP) at the turbine trip has been analyzed as an example and the results show less than 1% of the fuel failure. The result is well within the acceptance criteria. In addition to that, a study was accomplished to prevent the fuel failure for the heatup scenario case as an example. It is found that giving the proper pressure gap between High Pressurizer Pressure Trip (HPPT) analysis setpoint and the minimum PSV opening pressure could prevent the fuel failure.

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KSTAR(Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) 냉각 시스템에 대한 열해석 연구 (A Study on Thermo-Hydraulic Analysis for KSTAR(Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) Cooling Line System)

  • 김홍원;하지수;김대순;이종석;최창호
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2003년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.296-301
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    • 2003
  • A study on the engineering design and numerical thermo-hydraulic analysis for KSTAR TF coil structure cooling system has been conducted. The numerical analyses have been done to verify the engineering design of cooling using the commercial code, FLUENT and in-house code for calculating helium properties which varies with cooling tube's heat transfer. Through the engineering design process based on the steady heat balance concepts, the circular stainless steel tube with inner diameter of 4 mm for TF coil has been selected as cooling tube. From normal operation mode analysis results, total 28 cooling tubes were finally chosen. Also, three dimensional cool down analysis for TF coil with designed cooling tube was satisfied with next three design criteria. First is cooling work termination within a month, second is maximum temperature difference within 50 K in TF coil structure and third is exit helium pressure above 2 bar. Consequently, these cool down scenario results can afford to adopt as operating scenario data when KSTAR facilities operate.

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노후 학교건물의 유지관리비용 정책 평가를 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 (A System Dynamics Model for Evaluation of Maintenance Cost Policy in Deteriorated School Building)

  • 강수현;김상용
    • 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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    • 제35권12호
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    • pp.181-188
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    • 2019
  • The maintenance of school building is pivotal issue. However, it is difficult to obtain basic analysis data for LCC(Lifecycle Cost) analysis and maintenance planning of school building. Therefore, this study proposed System Dynamics(SD) techniques to make maintenance decisions for school building. The interaction between the major parameters related to the aging of a building, maintenance activities, and cost were expressed in Causal Loop Diagram. Based on this, the formula for the relationship between causal maps was defined and converted to Stock and Flow Diagram. Through the completed SD model the 50-year plan of 214 educational building were tested by considered in account budget, maintainability, and budget allocation opinions. As a result, the integrated SD model demonstrated that it can support strategic decision making by identifying the status class and LCC behavior of school buildings by scenario. According to the scenario analysis, the rehabilitation action of preventive maintenance that primarily repairs the buildings in condition grade C showed the best performance improvement effect relative to the cost. Therefore, if the proposed SD model is expanded to consider the effects of other educational policies, the crucial performance improvement budget can be estimated in the long-term perspective.

Parameter importance ranking for SBLOCA of CPR1000 with moment-independent sensitivity analysis

  • Xiong, Qingwen;Gou, Junli;Shan, Jianqiang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권12호
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    • pp.2821-2835
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    • 2020
  • The phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT) is an important basis in the nuclear power plant (NPP) thermal-hydraulic analysis. This study focuses on the importance ranking of the input parameters when lacking the PIRT, and the target scenario is the small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) CPR1000. A total of 54 input parameters which might have influence on the figure of merit (FOM) were identified, and the sensitivity measure of each input on the FOM was calculated through an optimized moment-independent global sensitivity analysis method. The importance ranking orders of the parameters were transformed into the Savage scores, and the parameters were categorized based on the Savage scores. A parameter importance ranking table for the SBLOCA scenario of the CPR1000 reactor was obtained, and the influences of some important parameters at different break sizes and different accident stages were analyzed.

The effect of sensitive and non-sensitive parameters on DCGL in probability analysis for decommissioning of nuclear facilities

  • Hyung-Woo Seo;Hyein Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권10호
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    • pp.3559-3570
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    • 2023
  • In the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, Derived Concentration Guideline Level (DCGL) derivation is necessary for the release of the facility after the site remediation, which also needs to be implemented in the stage of establishing a decommissioning planning. In order to derive DCGL, the dose assessment for the receptors can be conducted from residual radioactivity by using RESRAD code. When performing sensitivity analysis on probabilistic parameters, secondary evaluation is performed by assigning a single value for parameters classified as sensitive. However, several options may arise in the handling of nonsensitive parameters. Therefore, we compared the results of the first execution of RESRAD applying probabilistic parameters for each scenario with the results of the second execution applying a single value to sensitive parameters among the probabilistic parameters. In addition, we analyzed the effect of setting options for non-sensitive parameters. As a result, the effect on DCGL were different depending on the application scenario, the target radionuclides, and the input parameter selections. In terms of the overall evaluation period, the DCGL graph of the default option was generally shown as the most conservative except for some radionuclides. However, it will not necessarily be given priority in the aspect of the need to reflect site characteristics. The reason for selecting a probabilistic parameter is the availability of the parameter and the uncertainty of applying a single value. Therefore, as an alternative, it can be consistently applied to distribution as an option for non-sensitive parameters after sensitivity analysis.

저수지 모델의 지형정보 엽력자료가 수리결과에 미치는 영향 분석 - 대청호를 대상으로 - (Analysis of the Effects of Bathymetry Data on Hydraulic Results - Daecheong Reservoir -)

  • 이재일;서세덕;하성룡
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2009
  • A lot of research on the application of GIS has been conducted in the field of water quality management. The function of a geometric data acquisition for reservoir and river models, however, is not enough to satisfy multiuser' convenience. CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional(2D) longitudinal/vertical hydrodynamic and water quality model for surface water bodies, modeling eutrophication processes such as temperature-nutrient-algae and sediment relationships. The purpose of this study is to analyzing which bathymetry information affects hydraulic results. There are consisted of three scenarios under consideration. The first scenario takes into account only tribatary type data such as Heoin and Okchen river. The second scenario, Heoin river constructs to tributary and Okchen river constructs by branch. Last scenario constructs Heoin and Okchen river by branch. The RMSE error results for the first, second and third scenarios are 0.61, 0.36 and 0.28 respectively.