• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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Accident Risk Consequences Analysis for Operating a Hydrogen Refueling Station in Urban Railway Site (도심 내 철도부지 수소충전소 운영을 위한 사고 위험 영향 분석)

  • Jae Yong Lee;Deokkyu Youn;Chul-Ho Lee;Jaeyoung Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.70-77
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    • 2023
  • In response to climate change, each country is proposing a goal to reduce greenhouse gases in its energy supply and demand plan, and the use of hydrogen gas is a topic that is always prioritized as an energy resource for implementation. A popular way to use this hydrogen gas is the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and expansion of hydrogen charging stations is essential for using these hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, there are several limitations to the expansion of hydrogen refueling stations, the most representative of which is resident acceptance. Most of the hydrogen charging stations currently built in Korea are located in the outskirts with low population density, so the inconvenience to hydrogen fuel cell vehicle users has not been resolved, and as a result, there has been no progress in the spread of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In this paper, we analyzed the consequences of accident damage to determine the risks of constructing a hydrogen charging station on a railroad site frequently used by citizens. The target hydrogen charging station site was a railroad depot in Busan, and there are trains, national highways, and commercial facilities around this site. Assuming the worst-case scenario, we would like to consider the safety of the hydrogen refueling station site by analyzing the area affected by the accident and its consequence.

Analyzing the Effects of Low Emission Bus Zones Using Bus Information System Data (버스정보시스템 데이터를 활용한 Low Emission Bus Zone 도입의 탄소배출 저감 효과 분석)

  • Hye Inn Song;Kangwon Shin
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.196-207
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    • 2023
  • As part of measures to address the climate crisis, buses are also being converted to electric and hydrogen buses. Local authorities need to prioritize carbon emissions when allocating newly introduced and converted electric and hydrogen buses, and as a method, consider the introduction of Low Emission Bus Zones (LEBZ) to propose the reduction of pollution from specific links. To introduce LEBZ, it is necessary to compare the carbon emissions before and after its implementation, yet there is a shortage of studies that focus solely on buses or analyze the effects of introducing LEBZ to specific links. In this paper, we utilized bus information system data to calculate and compare the effects of introducing LEBZ to bus priority lanes in Jeju. We categorized scenarios into five groups, with scenarios 1 through 4 involving the introduction of LEBZ, and scenario 5 designating cases where LEBZ was not introduced. Comparative results confirmed that in scenarios with LEBZ introduction, the reduction per km reached a maximum of 0.097t per km, whereas in cases without LEBZ, it amounted to 0.022t per km, demonstrating higher efficiency. It underscores the significance of conducting carbon emission calculations and comparing the effects of LEBZ introduction using bus information system data, which can be directly applied by local authorities to make informed and rational decisions.

Assessment of water supply reliability under climate stress scenarios (기후 스트레스 시나리오에 따른 국내 다목적댐 이수안전도 평가)

  • Jo, Jihyeon;Woo, Dong Kook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.6
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    • pp.409-419
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    • 2024
  • Climate change is already impacting sustainable water resource management. The influence of climate change on water supply from reservoirs has been generally assessed using climate change scenarios generated based on global climate models. However, inherent uncertainties exist due to the limitations of estimating climate change by assuming IPCC carbon emission scenarios. The decision scaling approach was applied to mitigate these issues in this study focusing on four reservoir watersheds: Chungju, Yongdam, Hapcheon, and Seomjingang reservoirs. The reservoir water supply reliablity was analyzed by combining the rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) and the reservoir operation model based on HEC-ResSim. Water supply reliability analysis was aimed at ensuring the stable operation of dams, and its results ccould be utilized to develop either structural or non-structural water supply plans. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to assess potential risks that might arise during the operation of reserviors under various climate conditions. Using observed precipitation and temperature from 1995 to 2014, 49 climate stress scenarios were developed (7 precipitation scenarios based on quantiles and 7 temperature scenarios ranging from 0℃ to 6℃ at 1℃ intervals). Our study demonstrated that despite an increase in flood season precipitation leading to an increase in reservoir discharge, it had a greater impact on sustainable water management compared to the increase in non-flood season precipitation. Furthermore, in scenarios combining rainfall and temperature, the reliability of reservoir water supply showed greater variations than the sum of individual reliability changes in rainfall and temperature scenarios. This difference was attributed to the opposing effects of decreased and increased precipitation, each causing limitations in water and energy-limited evapotranspiration. These results were expected to enhance the efficiency of reservoir operation.

Estimation of Future Long-Term Riverbed Fluctuations and Aggregate Extraction Volume Using Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of the Nonsan River Basin (기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 장기하상변동 및 골재 채취량 산정: 논산천을 사례로)

  • Dae Eop Lee;Min Seok Kim;Hyun Ju Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

Analysis of Hazard Factors for Domestic General Purpose Ventilator using Usability Assessment (사용적합성 평가를 적용한 국산 범용인공호흡기의 위험요인 분석)

  • Gyeongmin Kwon;Seung hee Kim;You Rim Kim;Won Seuk Jang
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.10-19
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to conduct a summative evaluation of the usability of a general-purpose ventilator to determine whether it can be used for its intended purpose in the intended environment by the intended user and to find possible errors in use. The importance of ventilators has increased due to the accelerated aging of the population and the impact of the pandemic. In addition, patients who require ventilators are often in critical condition, so even a small error in use can be fatal. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the ventilator has sufficient stability and can be used satisfactorily without inconvenience to the user. In this study, we conducted a usability test with 17 respiratory nurses with more than 3 years of experience using the ventilator. We analyzed the task success rate, satisfaction, and opinions of the intended users while going through a total of 17 scenarios. Satisfaction was captured through an ASQ questionnaire and subjective opinions were captured through a detailed opinion questionnaire. The results showed a high level of satisfaction with an average score of 6.3 for the use scenarios. Evaluators expressed satisfaction with the overall visibility and versatility of the features, but noted that improvements were needed for calibration tasks with low task success rates. As the calibration method is different from other equipment, it was suggested that specific explanations of the calibration method and the picture that appears when calibrating are needed, and that if relevant training is provided, the equipment can be used without problems. If the usability evaluation is not limited to securing efficiency and satisfaction from the intended users, but also continuously receives feedback from users to prepare for use in emergency environments such as pandemic situations, it will be very helpful to seize opportunities such as emergency authorization in future situations, and ultimately contribute to patient safety by reducing use errors.

Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data (개인CB 자료를 이용한 우리나라 가계의 부채상환위험 분석)

  • Hahm, Joon-Ho;Kim, Jung In;Lee, Young Sook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

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Rock Slope Stability Investigations Conducted on the Road Cut in Samrangjin-Miryang Area (삼량진-밀양 지역에 위치한 도로 절취사면에 대한 사면안정 연구)

  • Um Jeong-Gi;Kang Taeseung;Hwang Jin Yeon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.3 s.172
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2005
  • This study addresses the preliminary results of rock slope stability analyses including hazard assessments for slope failure conducted on the selected sections of rural road cut slope which are about 4 km long. The study area is located in the Mt. Chuntae northeast of Busan and mainly composed of Cretaceous rhyolitic ash-flow tuff', fallout tuff, rhyolitc and andesite. The volcanic rock mass in the area has a number of discontinuities that produce a potentially unstable slope, as the present cut slope is more than 70 degrees in most of the slope sections. Discontinuity geometry data were collected at selected 8 scanline sections and analyzed to estimate important discontinuity geometry parameters to perform rock slope kinematic and block theory analyses. Kinematic analysis for plane sliding has resulted in maximum safe slope angles greater than $65^{\circ}$ for most of the discontinuities. For most of the wedges, maximum safe cut slope angles greater than $45^{\circ}$ were obtained. Maximum safe slope angles greater than 80" were obtained fur most of the discontinuities in the toppling case. The block theory analysis resulted in the identification of potential key blocks (type II) in the SL4, SL5, SL6 and SL8 sections. The chance of sliding taking place through a type ll block under a combined gravitational and external loading is quite high in the investigated area. The results support in-field observations of a potentially unstable slope that could become hazardous under external forces. The results obtained through limit equilibrium slope stability analyses show how a stable slope can become an unstable slope as the water pressure acting on joints increases and how a stable slope under Barton's shear strength criterion can fail as the worst case scenario of using Mohr-Coulomb criterion.

The Study of the Direction of Development of the Korean Feature Length Animation for Movie Theater : in the Case of 〈 Leafle, A Hen into The Wild 〉 (한국 극장용 장편 애니메이션 산업의 발전 방향에 대한 연구: 〈마당을 나온 암탉〉을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoon-A;Mok, Hae-Jung
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.26
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest the direction of the development of the feature length animation for movie theater by analyzing of the reasons of the success of . released in 2011 has broken box office records by drawing 2 millions since drew 760 thousands in 1976. This can be one of the success model of the animation for movie theater, considering it has had trouble not only in planning ability and scenario power but also in producing environment where subcontracts are prevalent. This box office hit seems to have been possible through cooperation and division of movie crews and animation crews. Many kinds of materials are reviewed and producer Kim Seonku was interviewed for analysis of the reasons of box office success. Followings are five reasons of success found as the result of analysis and the body of this article is composed of the argument and analysis of each. 1.This animation was planned and produced in the same way of commercial feature films. 2.There was detailed division of work while producing 3. Various kinds of investments were made sequentially, 4. Major film distributor like Lotte and CJ could be motivated 5. There were producers who can mediate between the animation and film field This study suggests the direction both in the aspect of industry and the aspect of training professionals as the result of analysis. In the industrial aspect, transitional cooperation is needed between animation filed and film field which can motivate distributor. Industrial approach like planning, investment, distribution and marketing is absolute for the success of animation for movie theater. Also in the aspect of training professionals, curriculum needs to be improved in the university because the ability and passion of the professionals in the field of animation industry are the most important and education is the most approachable way.

Analysis of Climate Change Researches Related to Water Resources in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 수자원분야 기후변화 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Noel
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2012
  • The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

Effects of Joining Coalition Loyalty Program : How the Brand affects Brand Loyalty Based on Brand Preference (브랜드 선호에 따라 제휴 로열티 프로그램 가입이 가맹점 브랜드 충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • Rhee, Jin-Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.87-115
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    • 2012
  • Introduction: In these days, a loyalty program is one of the most common marketing mechanisms (Lacey & Sneath, 2006; Nues & Dreze, 2006; Uncles et al., 20003). In recent years, Coalition Loyalty Program is more noticeable as one of progressed forms. In the past, loyalty program was operating independently by single product brand or single retail channel brand. Now, companies using Coalition Loyalty Program share their programs as one single service and companies to participate to this program continue to have benefits from their existing program as well as positive spillover effect from the other participating network companies. Instead of consumers to earn or spend points from single retail channel or brand, consumers will have more opportunities to utilize their points and be able to purchase other participating companies products. Issues that are related to form of loyalty programs are essentially connected with consumers' perceived view on convenience of using its program. This can be a problem for distribution companies' strategic marketing plan. Although Coalition Loyalty Program is popular corporate marketing strategy to most companies, only few researches have been published. However, compared to independent loyalty program, coalition loyalty program operated by third parties of partnership has following conditions: Companies cannot autonomously modify structures of program for individual companies' benefits, and there is no guarantee to operate and to participate its program continuously by signing a contract. Thus, it is important to conduct the study on how coalition loyalty program affects companies' success and its process as much as conducting the study on effects of independent program. This study will complement the lack of coalition loyalty program study. The purpose of this study is to find out how consumer loyalty affects affiliated brands, its cause and mechanism. The past study about loyalty program only provided the variation of performance analysis, but this study will specifically focus on causes of results. In order to do these, this study is designed and to verify three primary objects as following; First, based on opinions of Switching Barriers (Fornell, 1992; Ping, 1993; Jones, et at., 2000) about causes of loyalty of coalition brand, 'brand attractiveness' and 'brand switching cost' are antecedents and causes of change in 'brand loyalty' will be investigated. Second, influence of consumers' perception and attitude prior to joining coalition loyalty program, influence of program in retail brands, brand attractiveness and spillover effect of switching cost after joining coalition program will be verified. Finally, the study will apply 'prior brand preference' as a variable and will provide a relationship between effects of coalition loyalty program and prior preference level. Hypothesis Hypothesis 1. After joining coalition loyalty program, more preferred brand (compared to less preferred brand) will increase influence on brand attractiveness to brand loyalty. Hypothesis 2. After joining coalition loyalty program, less preferred brand (compared to more preferred brand) will increase influence on brand switching cost to brand loyalty. Hypothesis 3. (1)Brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand (before joining the coalition loyalty program) will influence more positive effects from (1)program attractiveness and (2)program switching cost of coalition loyalty program (after joining) than less preferred brand. Hypothesis 4. After joining coalition loyalty program, (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand will receive more positive impacts from (1)program attractiveness and (2)program switching cost of coalition loyalty program than less preferred brand. Hypothesis 5. After joining coalition loyalty program, (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand will receive less impacts from (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of different brands (having different preference level), which joined simultaneously, than less preferred brand. Method : In order to validate hypotheses, this study will apply experimental method throughout virtual scenario of coalition loyalty program if consumers have used or available for the actual brands. The experiment is conducted twice to participants. In a first experiment, the study will provide six coalition brands which are already selected based on prior research. The survey asked each brand attractiveness, switching cost, and loyalty after they choose high preference brand and low preference brand. One hour break was provided prior to the second experiment. In a second experiment, virtual coalition loyalty program "SaveBag" was introduced to participants. Participants were informed that "SaveBag" will be new alliance with six coalition brands from the first experiment. Brand attractiveness and switching cost about coalition program were measured and brand attractiveness and switching cost of high preference brand and low preference brand were measured as same method of first experiment. Limitation and future research This study shows limitations of effects of coalition loyalty program by using virtual scenario instead of actual research. Thus, future study should compare and analyze CLP panel data to provide more in-depth information. In addition, this study only proved the effectiveness of coalition loyalty program. However, there are two types of loyalty program, which are Single and Coalition, and success of coalition loyalty program will be dependent on market brand power and prior customer attitude. Therefore, it will be interesting to compare effects of two programs in the future.

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