• 대한예방한의학회지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.53-65
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• 2012

Objectives : This study aimed to analyze the fundamentals of a Korea-China FTA and suggest strategies for Korean medicine market that correspond with each scenario selected from foreseen circumstances after the conclusion of the FTA through the scenario planning, which is one of management techniques. Methods : Four scenarios have been established by means of key questions : the scope of FTA, health care policies, and the combination of western medicine(WM) and Korean medicine(KM). Each scenario is defined as the Maximized Competitive Market, Neutral Market, General Completive Market, and Conservative Market. This study suggests brand marketing, extending of health insurance coverage, launching local network, and strategy for Korean medicine based health promotion programs. Results and Conclusions : Although Korean medicine could be prompted by the trade policies between countries, related studies are very limited. Therefore, more research is needed to suggest the detailed strategies for change of Korean medicine market through various strategic analysis tools.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.419-428
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• 2023

This study estimates the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from energy sector of Changwon city from 2012 to 2020 and scenario analysis of GHGs reductions pathways in the context of the goal of 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon neutral scenario in Korea. As a result, the GHG emissions as a reference year of carbon neutral in 2018 were estimated as 8,872,641 tonCO_2eq accounting for 3,851,786 tonCO_2eq (43.6%) of direct source (scope 1) and 4,975,855 tonCO_2eq (56.4%) of indirect source (scope 2). Especially, among indirect sources as purchased electricity, manufacturing sector emitted the largest GHG accounting for 33.0%(2,915 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, scenario analysis of GHG reductions potential from the energy was analyzed 8,473,614 tonCO_2eq and the residual emissions were 354,027 tonCO_2eq. Purchased electricity and industry sector reducted the largest GHG accounting for 58.7%(4,976 thousands tonCO_2eq) and 42.1%(3,565 thousands tonCO_2eq) of the total emissions from all energy sectors, respectively.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권10호
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• pp.3787-3800
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• 2023

Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) scenarios require special attention using advanced simulation techniques due to their complexity and importance for nuclear power plant (NPP) safety. While the conservative approach has traditionally been used for safety analysis, it may lead to unrealistic results which calls for the use of best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach, especially with the current advances in computational power which makes the BEPU analysis feasible. In this work an Uncontrolled Control Element Assembly (CEA) Withdrawal at Full Power accident scenario is analyzed using the BEPU approach by loosely coupling the thermal hydraulics best-estimate system code (RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4) to the statistical analysis software (DAKOTA) using a Python interface. Results from the BEPU analysis indicate that a realistic treatment of the accident scenario yields a larger safety margin and is therefore encouraged for accident analysis as it may enable more economic and flexible operation.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.181-184
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• 2009

This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.

• Educational Technology International
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-27
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• 2023

This study aimed to examine an augmented reality-based teaching simulation in a mobile application. We examined how AR-enabled interactions affect users' perceived scenario usefulness and avatar realism. The participants were forty-six undergraduate students. We randomly grouped them into two conditions: AR and Non-interactive video groups with equal sample sizes. This study employed an experimental design approach with a one-way multivariate analysis of variance with repeated measures. The independent variable is the presence/absence of AR interaction with a mobile application. The dependent variables were avatar realism and scenario usefulness. The measures explored how the student avatar's emotional intensity in a scenario influences user perception. The results showed that participants in the AR-interaction group perceived avatar realism significantly higher than those in the non-interactive video group. Also, participants perceived the high emotional intensity scenario (aggression toward peers) to be significantly higher usefulness than the low emotional intensity scenario (classroom disruption).

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.421-426
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• 2010

In view of free from bluetongue (BT) in the domestic cattle population in Korea, the key of quarantine testing for BT virus (BTV) infection is detection of cattle previously exposed to the virus. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of detecting a cattle infected with BTV using a stochastic modeling analysis of existing quarantine testing data. Three testing scenarios were considered in this study: serological testing of all animals in all imported lots (scenario 1), serological testing of a sample of cattle from all imported lots (scenario 2), and serological testing of 50% of imported lots (scenario 3). In scenario 2 and 3, it was assumed that cattle were sampled (sample size) within each lot to detect 5% of the cattle in each lot with a 95% confidence, taking into account diagnostic sensitivity of the ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The model output was the total number of BTV-infected cattle and the prevalence of BTV infection in imported cattle from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan. Compared to the scenario 1, the probability of detecting a BTV-infected cattle was estimated to be 19% and 1.6% in scenario 2 and 3, respectively. Furthermore, the analyses showed a 95% confidence that BTV prevalence was less or equal to $9.7{\times}10^{-4}$ (median = $1.5{\times}10^{-5}$), indicating that, for the scenario 2 and 3 with serological testing for a sample of cattle, the risk of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into Korea through the importation of live cattle would not be acceptable.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2007

본 논문은 페트리 넷 기반의 멀티미디어 프로그래밍 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위하여 멀티미디어 시나리오를 표현할 MPN(Multimedia Petri Net)을 정의하고, 또한 MPN을 분석하여 시나리오의 결함을 찾아낼 수 있는 방법을 소개한다. 멀티미디어 프로그램은 MPN을 해석하여 멀티미디어 시나리오를 재생한다. 이렇게 작성한 우리의 멀티미디어 프로그램은 정지, 빠른 재생 되감기, 빠른 되감기 등의 조작 기능을 제공한다. 멀티미디어 시나리오 모델링을 위해 페트리 넷을 이용한 사례는 존재하지만, 이들은 모두 시간적 동기화 분석을 위한 것으로, 멀티미디어 시나리오의 재생을 목적으로 사용된 사례는 아직 없다. 이에 반하여, MPN은 시나리오의 흐름은 물론 시나리오를 구성하는 데이터들의 정보까지도 모두 표현함으로써 재생에 필요한 모든 정보를 나타낼 수 있다.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2019

After Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident, the need for implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) became evident. However, to ensure the effectiveness of the safety strategy, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties associated with the station blackout (SBO) scenario as well as the operator actions. In this paper, a systems engineering approach for uncertainty analysis (UA) of a SBO scenario in advanced pressurized water reactor is performed. MARS-KS is used as a best estimate thermal-hydraulic code and is loosely-coupled with Dakota software which is employed to develop the uncertainty quantification framework. Furthermore, the systems engineering approach is adopted to identify the requirements, functions and physical architecture, and to develop the verification and validation plan. For the preliminary analysis, 13 uncertainty parameters are propagated through the model to evaluate the stability and convergence of the framework. The developed framework will ultimately be used to quantify the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with an extended SBO accident scenario and assess the coping capability of APR1400 and the effectiveness of the implemented FLEX strategies.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.107-117
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• 2023

사이버 공간에서 이루어지는 전투 행위가 군의 주요 임무체계 및 무기체계에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 평가할 수 있어야 한다. 사이버공격에 의한 임무영향을 사이버 M&S로 분석하기 위해서는 대상이 되는 임무체계와 사이버전 요소를 모델로 구축하고, 시뮬레이션을 위한 시나리오를 저작하여야 한다. 사이버전에 의한 임무영향 분석 관련 연구는 미국을 중심으로 많은 연구가 수행되었으며, 기존의 연구에서는 물리전장과 사이버전장에 대해 별개로 시나리오를 저작하였다. 임무영향 분석의 정확도를 높이기 위해서는 물리전장 모델과 사이버전장 모델을 결합한 시뮬레이션 환경을 구축하고, 임무 시나리오와 사이버공격/방어 시나리오를 통합해서 저작할 수 있어야 한다. 또한 물리전장과 사이버전장은 업무영역이 상이함을 고려하여 시나리오를 효율적으로 저작할 수 있는 방법이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 임무체계 정보를 이용하여 시나리오 저작에 필요한 자료를 사전에 작성하고, 선작업된 자료를 이용하여 통합시나리오를 저작하는 방법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법은 시나리오 저작도구의 설계에 반영하여 개발하고 있으며, 제안 방법을 입증하기 위해 대화력전 분야의 통합시나리오 저작을 수행하였다. 향후, 제안한 방법을 반영한 시나리오 저작도구를 활용하면 임무영향 분석을 위한 통합시나리오를 짧은 시간에 쉽게 저작할 수 있게 될 것이다.