• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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Development and Application of a Methodologyfor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment-Sea Level Rise Impact ona Coastal City (기후변화 취약성 평가 방법론의 개발 및 적용 해수면 상승을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Ga-Young;Park, Sung-Woo;Chung, Dong-Ki;Kang, Ho-Jeong;Hwang, Jin-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.185-205
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    • 2010
  • Climate change vulnerability assessment based on local conditions is a prerequisite for establishment of climate change adaptation policies. While some studies have developed a methodology for vulnerability assessment at the national level using statistical data, few attempts, whether domestic or overseas, have been made to develop methods for local vulnerability assessments that are easily applicable to a single city. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for climate change vulnerability, and then develop a general methodology for assessment at the regional level applied to a single coastal city, Mokpo, in Jeolla province, Korea. We followed the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability proposed by the IPCC (1996) which consists of "climate exposure," "systemic sensitivity," and "systemic adaptive capacity." "Climate exposure" was designated as sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 meter(s), allowing for a simple scenario for sea level rises. Should more complex forecasts of sea level rises be required later, the methodology developed herein can be easily scaled and transferred to other projects. Mokpo was chosen as a seaside city on the southwest coast of Korea, where all cities have experienced rising sea levels. Mokpo has experienced the largest sea level increases of all, and is a region where abnormal high tide events have become a significant threat; especially subsequent to the construction of an estuary dam and breakwaters. Sensitivity to sea level rises was measured by the percentage of flooded area for each administrative region within Mokpo evaluated via simulations using GIS techniques. Population density, particularly that of senior citizens, was also factored in. Adaptive capacity was considered from both the "hardware" and "software" aspects. "Hardware" adaptive capacity was incorporated by considering the presence (or lack thereof) of breakwaters and seawalls, as well as their height. "Software" adaptive capacity was measured using a survey method. The survey questionnaire included economic status, awareness of climate change impact and adaptation, governance, and policy, and was distributed to 75 governmental officials working for Mokpo. Vulnerability to sea level rises was assessed by subtracting adaptive capacity from the sensitivity index. Application of the methodology to Mokpo indicated vulnerability was high for seven out of 20 administrative districts. The results of our methodology provides significant policy implications for the development of climate change adaptation policy as follows: 1) regions with high priority for climate change adaptation measures can be selected through a correlation diagram between vulnerabilities and records of previous flood damage, and 2) after review of existing short, mid, and long-term plans or projects in high priority areas, appropriate adaptation measures can be taken as per this study. Future studies should focus on expanding analysis of climate change exposure from sea level rises to other adverse climate related events, including heat waves, torrential rain, and drought etc.

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Comparative Evaluation for Environmental Impact of Rapeseed and Barley Cultivation in Paddy Field for Winter using Life Cycle Assessment (겨울논 유채와 보리 재배시 전과정평가 방법을 이용한 환경영향 비교 평가)

  • Hong, Seung-Gil;Shin, JoungDu;Park, Kwang-Lai;Ahn, Min-Sil;Ok, Yong-Sik;Kim, Jeong-Gyu;Kim, Seok-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2016
  • The application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology to assess the environmental impact of rapeseed cultivation in winter fallow after harvesting rice was investigated and compared with barley cultivation in crop rotation system. Data for input materials were collected and analyzed by 1 ton rapeseed and barley as functional unit. For the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) the Eco-indicator 95 method has been chosen because this is well documented and regularly applied impact method. From the comparison of impact categories such as greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, acidification, heavy metals, carcinogens, summer smog, and energy resources for 1 ton of final product, emission potential from rapeseed was higher than that from barley. The range from 65 to 96% of these potential came from chemical fertilizer. On the other hand, eutrophication potential from barley was higher than that from rapeseed, mainly came from utilizing the chemical fertilizer. During the cultivation of barley and rape, environmental burden by heavy metals was evaluated by 0.5 Pt, larger than points from other impact categories. The sum of points from all impact categories in barley and rapeseed was calculated to be 0.78 Pt and 0.82 Pt, respectively. From the sensitivity analysis for barley and rapeseed, scenario 1 (crop responses to fertilization level) showed the environmental burden was continuously increased with the amount of fertilization in barley cultivation, while it was not increased only at the optimum crop responses to fertilization in rapeseed (R3). With these results, rapeseed cultivation in winter fallow paddy contributed to the amounts of environmental burden much more than barley cultivation. It is, however, highly determined that environmental weighted point resulted from evaluating both cultivation was not significantly different.

Dietary Habits and Climacteric Symptoms according to the Level of Food Supplement Use of Middle-aged Women (중년 여성의 식이보충제 섭취 수준에 따른 식습관 및 갱년기 증상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi Jeong;Lee, Kyung-Hea
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.1054-1064
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the question of whether there is any difference in dietary habits, climacteric symptoms, and general health characteristics of middle-aged women according to food supplements (FS) use. A total of 745 midlife females participated in a face-to-face interview conducted by qualified interviewers, which guaranteed a higher quality of data collection. Three levels of FS use were defined: None, Single, and Multi for 0, 1, and 2 or more types of FS use, respectively. None, Single, and Multi accounted for 33.56%, 33.29%, and 33.15% of total subjects, respectively. FS users (Single and Multi) exerted more interest in FS and were more likely to believe that FS is helpful for health promotion and amelioration of climacteric symptoms than None (P<0.0001). Self-perceived health status of Multi was lower than that of None, but not different from Single (P<0.05). Factor analysis extracted three factors for dietary habits: regularity, variety and moderation, and four factors for climacteric symptoms: emotional, physical, psycho-somatic, and hot flash. The factor scores for dietary variety as well as emotional, psycho-somatic, and hot flash symptoms were higher for FS user than for None (P<0.01). Single reported more frequent family meals compared to None. Findings of the present study elucidated potential links between the level of FS use, dietary habits, and climacteric symptoms of middle-aged women, suggesting a possible scenario: the greater the climacteric symptoms a woman perceives, the more likely the woman will adopt FS use, the greater the efforts toward dietary improvement, such as dietary variety. Based on that, in this study, more peri-menopausal women belonged to Single and Multi; further investigation on the association between FS use, dietary quality, and climacteric symptoms in conjunction with menopausal status may be needed.

Development of Digital Games Based on Historical Material and its Design Components - With History Based Games of 5 Countries (역사소재 기반 디지털게임의 발전과정 및 기획요소 연구 - 동.서양 5개국의 역사소재 게임을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Man-Ki;Kim, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.460-479
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    • 2007
  • When culture took large part in industrial area, every country has tried to utilize own cultural contents for educational or commercial purpose and the various cultures and histories are recognized as a main concept or subject so that a number of scholars who study history increase. In video game field, special characteristics of interface that audiences participate in the game to complete story-telling is considered as efficient material for learning process. As observed above, it is important to analyze the games that every country makes and export to the world in which the video games is understood as a play of human in general. This Paper has firstly analyzed the most favorite historical games developed in Korea, the USA, Japan, Taiwan and Germany from 1980 to 2005 and secondly, compared that wars and historical origin appears in game scenario, a world view and background story and finally after point out the preferable era and genre of the countries then propose the promising way of design for historical video games. In the process of analysis of a view and heroes in historical games, we compared the real persons, the real historical events and novel in which 11.8% only employed the real persons in 8 out of 68 games. Also the real history and background story are appeared in 37 games which is 54.4% of them. We discovered that the main material that is popular for each country is the historical backing rather than real persons where the favorite historical background is chosen at which they are proud of; 3-Throne era with strong ancient Gogurye for Korea, the 1st and 2nd World Wars and the Independence War for the USA, the tide of war around Middle age for Japan, ancient history of Europe for Germany. The favorite age for video games is Ancient times with 37 games for 54.4%, Middle Age with 7 games fer 10.3%, the prehistoric age with 5 games for 7.35%, remote age with 1 for 1.47%, while current historical games favor Ancient or Modern Age.

Design and Analysis of Online Advertising Expenditure Model based on Coupon Download (쿠폰 다운로드를 기준으로 하는 온라인 광고비 모델의 설계 및 분석)

  • Jun, Jung-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.

Study of Web Services Interoperabiliy for Multiple Applications (다중 Application을 위한 Web Services 상호 운용성에 관한 연구)

  • 유윤식;송종철;최일선;임산송;정회경
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.217-220
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    • 2004
  • According as utilization for web increases rapidly, it is demanded that model about support interaction between web-based applications systematically and solutions can integrate new distributed platforms and existing environment effectively, accordingly, Web Services appeared by solution in reply. These days, a lot of software and hardware companies try to adoption of Web Services to their market, attenpt to construct their applications associationing components from various Web Services providers. However, to execute Web Services completely. it must have interoperability and need the standardization work that avoid thing which is subject to platform, application as well as service and programming language from other companies. WS-I (Web Services Interoperability organization) have established Basic Profile 1.0 based on XML, UDDI, WSDL and SOAP for web services interoperability and developed usage scenario Profile to apply Web Services in practice. In this paper, to verify suitability Web Services interoperability between heterogeneous two applications, have design and implements the Book Information Web Services that based on the Web Services Client of J2SE platform and the Web Services Server of .NET platform, so that analysis and verify the service by adaptation of WS-I Basic Profile.

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A Study on the Ecosystem Services Value Assessment According to City Development: In Case of the Busan Eco-Delta City Development (도시개발에 따른 생태계서비스 가치 평가 연구: 부산 에코델타시티 사업을 대상으로)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Youngsoo;Lee, Sangdon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.427-439
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    • 2019
  • Natural environmental ecology ofthe environmental impact assessment(EIA)is very much lacking in quantitative evaluation. Thus, this study attempted to evaluate quantitative assessment for ecosystem service in the site of Eco-delta project in Busan. As a part of climate change adaptation, this study evaluated and compared with the value for carbon fixation and habitat quality using the InVEST model before and after development with three alternatives of land-use change. Carbon fixation showed 216,674.48 Mg of C (year 2000), and 203,474.25 Mg of C (year 2015)reducing about 6.1%, and in the future of year 2030 the value was dropped to 120,490.84 Mg of C which is 40% lower than year 2015. Alternative 3 of land use planning was the best in terms of carbon fixation showing 6,811.31 Mg of C. Habitat quality also changed from 0.57 (year 2000), 0.35 (year 2015), and 0.21 (year 2030) with continued degradation as development goes further. Alternative 3 also was the highest with 0.21(Alternative 1 : 0.20, Alternative 2 : 0.18). In conclusion,this study illustrated that quantitative method forland use change in the process of EIA can helpdecision making for stakeholders anddevelopers with serving the best scenario forlow impact of carbon. Also it can help better for land use plan, greenhouse gas and natural environmental assets in EIA. This study could be able to use in the environmental policy with numerical data of ecosystem and prediction. Supplemented with detailed analysis and accessibility of basic data, this method will make it possible for wide application in the ecosystem evaluation.

On Utilization of Inactive Storage in Dam during Drought Period (가뭄 극복을 위한 댐의 비활용용량 활용 방안 연구)

  • Joo, Hongjun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Bae, Younghye;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a structure plan for improving the utilization of inactive storage in the dam for overcoming the drought. Inactive storage in the dam is composed of the emergency storage and dead storage. The emergency storage can be used for the case of emergency such as drought. But, in general, the dead storage for sedimentation is not used even for the emergency. Therefore, this study considers the part of dead storage that the sedimentation is not progressed yet can be used during the severe drought period and is called "drought storage in a dam". The accurate Sediment Level(SL) analysis for the computation of the drought storage should be performed and so the present and future SL in the dam reservoir is estimated using SED-2D linked with RMA-2 model of SMS. After the consideration of additionally available storage capacity based on the estimated SL, the drought storage is finally determined. Present data based on historical data, future predicted future climate factors by Representative Concentrarion Pathways(RCP) 8.5 scenario. Then, using the TANK model, dam inflows were determined, and future period such as SL and drought storage were suggested. As the results, we have found that the available drought storage will be reduced in the future when we compare the present drought storage with the future one. This is due to a increase variability of climate change. Therefore, we should take the necessary study for the increase of available drought storage in the future.

Evaluation of Eutrophication and Control Alternatives in Sejong Weir using EFDC Model (EFDC 모델에 의한 세종보의 부영양화 및 제어대책 평가)

  • Yun, Yeojeong;Jang, Eunji;Park, Hyung-Seok;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.548-561
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    • 2018
  • The objectives of this study were to construct a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic and water quality model (EFDC) for the river reach between the Daecheong dam and the Sejong weir, which are directly affected by Gap and Miho streams located in the middle of the Geum River, and to evaluate the trophic status and water quality improvement effect according to the flow control and pollutant load reduction scenarios. The EFDC model was calibrated with the field data including waterlevel, temperature and water quality collected from September, 2012 to April, 2013. The model showed a good agreement with the field data and adequately replicated the spatial and temporal variations of water surface elevation, temperature and water quality. Especially, it was confirmed that spatial distributions of nutrients and algae biomass have wide variation of transverse direction. Also, from the analysis of algal growth limiting factor, it was found that phosphorous loadings from Gap and Miho streams to Sejong weir induce eutrophication and algal bloom. The scenario of pollutant load reduction from Gap and Miho streams showed a significant effect on the improvement of water quality; 4.7~18.2% for Chl-a, 5.4~21.9% for TP at Cheongwon-1 site, and 4.2~ 17.3% for Chl-a and 4.7~19.4% for TP at Yeongi site. In addition, the eutrophication index value, identifying the tropic status of the river, was improved. Meanwhile, flow control of Daecheong Dam and Sejong weir showed little effect on the improvement of water quality; 1.5~2.4% for Chl-a, 2.5~ 3.8% for TP at Cheongwon-1 site, and 1.2~2.1% for Chl-a and 0.9~1.5% for TP at Yeongi site. Therefore, improvement of the water quality in Gap and Miho streams is essential and a prerequirement to meet the target water quality level of the study area.

Development of a deep neural network model to estimate solar radiation using temperature and precipitation (온도와 강수를 이용하여 일별 일사량을 추정하기 위한 심층 신경망 모델 개발)

  • Kang, DaeGyoon;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2019
  • Solar radiation is an important variable for estimation of energy balance and water cycle in natural and agricultural ecosystems. A deep neural network (DNN) model has been developed in order to estimate the daily global solar radiation. Temperature and precipitation, which would have wider availability from weather stations than other variables such as sunshine duration, were used as inputs to the DNN model. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to train and test the DNN models. Meteorological data at 15 weather stations were collected for a long term period, e.g., > 30 years in Korea. The DNN model obtained from the cross-validation had relatively small value of RMSE ($3.75MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$) for estimates of the daily solar radiation at the weather station in Suwon. The DNN model explained about 68% of variation in observed solar radiation at the Suwon weather station. It was found that the measurements of solar radiation in 1985 and 1998 were considerably low for a small period of time compared with sunshine duration. This suggested that assessment of the quality for the observation data for solar radiation would be needed in further studies. When data for those years were excluded from the data analysis, the DNN model had slightly greater degree of agreement statistics. For example, the values of $R^2$ and RMSE were 0.72 and $3.55MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. Our results indicate that a DNN would be useful for the development a solar radiation estimation model using temperature and precipitation, which are usually available for downscaled scenario data for future climate conditions. Thus, such a DNN model would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production where solar radiation is used as a required input variable to a crop model.