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Very short-term rainfall prediction based on radar image learning using deep neural network (심층신경망을 이용한 레이더 영상 학습 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Park, Heeseong;Shin, Hongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1159-1172
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    • 2020
  • This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.

Study on the Multilevel Effects of Integrated Crisis Intervention Model for the Prevention of Elderly Suicide: Focusing on Suicidal Ideation and Depression (노인자살예방을 위한 통합적 위기개입모델 다층효과 연구: 자살생각·우울을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eun Joo;Yook, Sung Pil
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.173-200
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    • 2017
  • This study is designed to verify the actual effect on the prevention of the elderly suicide of the integrated crisis intervention service which has been widely provided across all local communities in Gyeonggi-province focusing on the integrated crisis intervention model developed for the prevention of elderly suicide. The integrated crisis intervention model for the local communities and its manual were developed for the prevention of elderly suicide by integrating the crisis intervention theory which contains local community's integrated system approach and the stress vulnerability theory. For the analysis of the effect, the geriatric depression and suicidal ideation scale was adopted and the data was collected as follows; The data was collected from 258 people in the first preliminary test. Then, it was collected from the secondary test of 184 people after the integrated crisis intervention service was performed for 6 months. The third collection of data was made from 124 people after 2 or 3 years later using the backward tracing method. As for the analysis, the researcher used the R Statistics computing to conduct the test equating, and the vertical scaling between measuring points. Then, the researcher conducted descriptive statistics analysis and univariate analysis of variance, and performed multi-level modeling analysis using Bayesian estimation. As a result of the study, it was found out that the integrated crisis intervention model which has been developed for the elderly suicide prevention has a statistically significant effect on the reduction of elderly suicide in terms of elderly depression and suicide ideation in the follow-up measurement after the implementation of crisis intervention rather than in the first preliminary scores. The integrated crisis intervention model for the prevention of elderly suicide was found to be effective to the extent of 0.56 for the reduction of depression and 0.39 for the reduction of suicidal ideation. However, it was found out in the backward tracing test conducted 2-3 years after the first crisis intervention that the improved values returned to its original state, thus showing that the effect of the intervention is not maintained for long. Multilevel analysis was conducted to find out the factors such as the service type(professional counseling, medication, peer counseling), characteristics of the client (sex, age), the characteristics of the counselor(age, career, major) and the interaction between the characteristics of the counselor and intervention which affect depression and suicidal ideation. It was found that only medication can significantly reduce suicidal ideation and that if the counselor's major is counseling, it significantly further reduces suicidal ideation by interacting with professional counseling. Furthermore, as the characteristics of the suicide prevention experts are found to regulate the intervention effect on elderly suicide prevention in applying integrated crisis intervention model, the primary consideration should be given to the counseling ability of these experts.

Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

The Characteristics of Traditional Representation in the Artist's Garden of the Garden Exposition seen through the Design Process (설계과정을 통해 본 정원박람회 작가정원의 전통재현 특성)

  • Lee, Song-Min;So, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted through the analysis of literature and on-site research as a case study of 14 artists' gardens with traditional themes presented at the garden fair. With Focusing on the design process for determining traditional reproduction, the following characteristics and implications were derived by analyzing the design goals, selection of subjects for traditional reenactment, determination of methods for reproduction, and design stages of landscape components. First, the pattern of selecting traditional structures as subjects for reproduction in many artist gardens can be understood as an advantage of being suitable for narrow sites and having remarkable topic communicability. They directly delivered the design intent by adding the names of traditional structures such as Madang, Wool, Buttumak, Jangdokdae, Chuibyeong and Seokgasan. Works expressed indirectly, such as Wall, Korean Garden, Suwon, and Seoul craftsmen, have relatively weak topic communicability. There were also symbolic representations of objects to be reproduced, such as Seonbi, marginal spaces, and Pung-lyu. Second, while reproducing Hanok Madang, separate the gardens paved with grass and stone, the fortress wall of Suwon Hwaseong and the northwest Gongsimdon of the watchtower. Also the garden with a miniature version of the extraneous Yong-yeon and the garden, which was reproduced as a low decorative wall in the rest area based on Nakan-Eupseong Fortress, shows the need for a deep understanding of tradition. On the other hand, the reproducting works of choosing the location of the traditional garden, the Korean Garden showed the importance of systematic arrangement with the surrounding environment, the beauty of the space in the courtyard of Hanok, the beauty of the slowness enjoyed by the scholars and the reenactments of the Pung-lyu culture of Moonlight boating are not only imitating traditional structures but also spreading understanding of tradition to garden culture and sentiment. Third, there were many works that reconstructed the real-size traditional structure in a straightforward way in relation to design. The garden was divided into Chuibyeong and the living space was decorated with Buttumak, chimneys, and gardens, and facilities representing Gyeongbokgung Palace, Soswaewon, and Seoseokji were systemically arranged. However it recognized the importance of selecting the key design elements, constructing the elevation of the structure, and the sense of scale of the space from works that reproduced the large Suwon Hwaseong and Nakan-Eupseong in an abstract way. While there are examples gardens of Hanok yards and Bazawul, which are far from the original image among the gardens that chose the dismantling method, the Blank-space garden expressed only by a frame composed of cubes, and Seonbi's Sarangbang garden, that permeated the moonlight with many traditional structures are the positive examples. The Seoul Artisan Garden, Jikji Simche Garden and Pung-lyu Garden, which display modernly designed landscape components, need an explanation to understand the author's intention.

Analysis on Seismic Resistance Capacity of Hollow Concrete Block Reinforced Foundation Ground by Using Shaking Table Test (진동대 시험을 이용한 중공블록 보강 기초의 내진성능분석)

  • Shin, Eun-Chul;Lee, Yeun-Jeung;Yang, Tae Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2021
  • The seventy percentage of Korean Peninsular is covered by the mountainous area, and the depth of west sea and south sea is relatively shallow. Therefore, a large scale land reclamation from the sea has been implemented for the construction of industrial complex, residental area, and port and airport facilities. The common problem of reclaimed land is consisted of soft ground, and hence it has low load bearing capacity as well as excessive settlement upon loading on the ground surface. The hollow concrete block has been used to reinforce the loose and soft foundation soil where the medium-high apartment or one-story industrial building is being planned to be built. Recently the earthquakes with the magnitude of 4.0~5.0 have been occurred in the west coastal and southeast coastal areas. Lee (2019) reported the advantages of hollow concrete block reinforced shallow foundation through the static laboratory bearing capacity tests. In this study, the dynamic behavior of hollow concrete block reinforced sandy ground with filling the crushed stone in the hollow space has been investigated by the means of shaking table test with the size of shaking table 1000 mm × 1000 mm. Three types of seismic wave, that is, Ofunato, Hachinohe, Artificial, and two different accelerations (0.154 g, 0.22 g) were applied in the shaking table tests. The horizontal displacement of structure which is situated right above the hollow concrete block reinforced ground was measured by using the LVDT. The relative density of soil ground are varied with 45%, 65%, and 85%, respectively, to investigate the effectiveness of reinforcement by hollow block and measured the magnitude of lateral movement, and compared with the limit value of 0.015h (Building Earthquake Code, 2019). Based on the results of shaking table test for hollow concrete block reinforced sandy ground, honeycell type hollow block gives a large interlocking force due to the filling of crushed stone in the hollow space as well as a great interface friction force by the confining pressure and punching resistance along the inside and outside of hollow concrete block. All these factors are contributed to reduce the great amount of horizontal displacement during the shaking table test. Finally, hollow concrete block reinforced sandy ground for shallow foundation is provided an outstanding reinforced method for medium-high building irrespective of seismic wave and moderate accelerations.

Analysis of Fire Occurrence Characteristics According to Ignition Heat Sources (발화열원에 따른 화재발생 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Su;Kim, Tae-Hyeung;Lee, Jae-Ou
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.280-289
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: In this study, the characteristics of fire occurrence according to ignition heat sources such as operating equipment, cigarette/lighter fire, and flame/fire were analyzed. Method: One-way ANOVA and cross-analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of fire occurrence by verifying the difference between the ignition environment, fire damage status and scale, and cause of ignition according to the ignition heat source. Result: The fire occurrence characteristics were analyzed through As a result of the analysis, it was found that fires caused by operating devices occurred more frequently on weekdays than other ignition heat sources, and the number of victims and the number of victims were the highest, so mobilization of firefighting power and property damage were the greatest. The initial ignition was generated by electric and electronic devices, and the combustion was expanded by the synthetic resin. For fires caused by cigarette and lighter fires, the most fires occurred on Saturdays and Sundays, and the mobilization of the police force was more characteristic than the mobilization of the firefighting force. In particular, it was found that the initial ignition and combustion expansion were caused by paper, wood, and hay. Fires caused by sparks and sparks occurred most frequently on Saturdays and Sundays, and initial ignition and combustion expansion were found to be caused by paper, wood, and hay. In particular, it showed the characteristic that it occurred in the place farthest from the fire station. The common characteristic of all ignition heat sources was that the fire occurred most frequently in the afternoon time, and the fire type was predominantly the building structure fire, and only the ignition point was burned the most. Conclusion: In order to prevent fire and minimize damage, it is necessary to analyze the tendency of fire occurrence and to prepare appropriate preparations according to the fire occurrence factors. In order to analyze the characteristics of fire occurrence using public data in the future, it is necessary to standardize disaster data and to open and activate data.

Preference and Loyalty Evaluation Using Sentiment Analysis for Promotion and Consumption Expansion of Paprika (감성분석을 이용한 파프리카 소비 확대와 홍보를 위한 선호도와 충성도 평가)

  • Jang, Hye Sook;Lee, Jung Sup;Bang, Ji Wong;Lee, Jae Han
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2022
  • This study investigated the consumption tendency and awareness of paprika in order to expand and promote the consumption of Capsicum annuum L. The research investigated the relationship of preference and loyalty based on emotional response of paprika according to the semantic differential scale. The survey was conducted from January to February 2022 using a random sampling method targeting 155 general people, and a total of 142 questionnaires were analyzed excluding 13 wrong answers. The nine items on the awareness of paprika showed to be consisted of three factors such as 'Food taste', 'Usability', and 'Economics' by factor analysis. Regarding to the awareness of paprika the positive answer that 'I think paprika is good for health' among the nine questions was the highest at 92.3%. In the preference aspect of shape, blocky type had the highest preference for the shape of paprika, followed by mini and conical types in order of preference (p < 0.001). As for color preference, yellow paprika was the most preferred, followed by orange, red, and green, showing statistical significance. The emotional response of paprika by paprika image showed a statistically significant difference in the four colors. The words such as 'bright', 'clean', and 'spirited' appeared as representative emotional vocabulary for paprika. Multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the effect of paprika on the three factors of awareness, preference, and loyalty due to the quality of life. As a result, the higher the paprika preference and quality of life, and the higher the taste and availability factors, the higher the paprika awareness and loyalty. As the variable that has the most influence on the loyalty of the survey respondents, preference was found to have the highest explanatory power at 43%. From these results, it was judged as a very important factor in the survey on the shape and color preference of paprika. Therefore, the recent increase in awareness that paprika is good for health is thought to act as a positive factor in revitalizing the domestic market and increasing consumption of paprika in the future. Also, among the three types of paprika, the yellow blunt type showed the highest preference. Therefore, in order to produce and promote this type of paprika, it is also important to increase the cultivation to suit the purchasing propensity of consumers.

Development and Performance Evaluation of Multi-sensor Module for Use in Disaster Sites of Mobile Robot (조사로봇의 재난현장 활용을 위한 다중센서모듈 개발 및 성능평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Yonghan;Hong, Junwooh;Han, Soohee;Shin, Dongyoon;Lim, Eontaek;Kim, Seongsam
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_3
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    • pp.1827-1836
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    • 2022
  • Disasters that occur unexpectedly are difficult to predict. In addition, the scale and damage are increasing compared to the past. Sometimes one disaster can develop into another disaster. Among the four stages of disaster management, search and rescue are carried out in the response stage when an emergency occurs. Therefore, personnel such as firefighters who are put into the scene are put in at a lot of risk. In this respect, in the initial response process at the disaster site, robots are a technology with high potential to reduce damage to human life and property. In addition, Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) can acquire a relatively wide range of 3D information using a laser. Due to its high accuracy and precision, it is a very useful sensor when considering the characteristics of a disaster site. Therefore, in this study, development and experiments were conducted so that the robot could perform real-time monitoring at the disaster site. Multi-sensor module was developed by combining LiDAR, Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensor, and computing board. Then, this module was mounted on the robot, and a customized Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) algorithm was developed. A method for stably mounting a multi-sensor module to a robot to maintain optimal accuracy at disaster sites was studied. And to check the performance of the module, SLAM was tested inside the disaster building, and various SLAM algorithms and distance comparisons were performed. As a result, PackSLAM developed in this study showed lower error compared to other algorithms, showing the possibility of application in disaster sites. In the future, in order to further enhance usability at disaster sites, various experiments will be conducted by establishing a rough terrain environment with many obstacles.

Development of Consumer Education Teaching-Learning Process for SMART Learning-Based Middle School Home Economics Education (스마트러닝 기반 중학교 가정교과 소비생활 교수-학습안 개발)

  • Seo, Yu Ri;Chae, Jung Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.149-170
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Smart learning-based middle school home economics education plan to improve the online home economics education classes. The educational plan in this study was completed through the process of analysis, design, development, and evaluation. The results of this study are as follows. First, as a result of analyzing consumer life units in the middle school textbooks based on 2015-revised curriculum, Smart learning activities were presented in only two out of the 12 textbooks analyxed. Second, a Smart learning-based middle school home economics education plan was developed in this study with the following characteristics: the topics and contents are structured so that to help learners actively engage in the teaching and learning activities; the education plan to reflects various media and current issues that learners may be interested in; the lesson plans were structured with the premise of online classes; softwares that enable real-time discussion and collaboration are used; and the evaluation method are composed of online activities. Third, the expert evaluation scores for the educational plan and activity materials developed were 4.52 (5-point Likert scale), when averaged across subject, goal, content, teaching/learning activity, and evaluation, and the overall content validity index(CVI) was 0.95. The adequacy of execution, benefit, attractiveness, usefulness, and feasibility were highly with an average of 4.62. Based on the experts' comments, the education plan and activity materials were revised and completed. This study is meaningful in that it developed teaching and learning activities based on online classes after the COVID-19 outbreak, overcoming the limitations of offline classes. It has implications for face-to-face home economics classes due to COVID-19, as it suggests ways to blend online and offline teaching/learning activities depending on the situation.

Arthroscopic Iliopsoas Tenotomy of Iliopsoas Impingement after Total Hip Arthroplasty (고관절 전치환술 후 발생한 장요건 충돌의 관절경하 장요건 절단술)

  • Huh, Soon Ho;Choi, Byeong Yeol;Han, Sang Roc;Chung, Woo Chull
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The clinical outcomes were investigated to determine if arthroscopic management is a useful method for 19 hips with iliopsoas tendon impingement (IPI) after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Materials and Methods: Eighteen patients (19 hips), who complained of groin pain and flexion pain that persisted after THA from September 2013 to December 2019, were the subjects of this investigation. The mean time to manifestation after THA was four months (range, 1-9 months) in patients of an average age of 60 years (range, 50-69 years). Thirteen out of 18 patients underwent THA using the direct anterior approach and five by the lateral approach. IPI was diagnosed by the medical history, physical examination, blood test, radiographic examination using X-ray and computed tomography, and topical injection therapy. All patients underwent arthroscopic treatment and a dynamic arthroscopic physical examination after exposure to the iliopsoas tendon revealed impingement. Tenotomy was then performed on the muscle portion through the total tendon portion. Symptoms and pain levels of preoperative, postoperative and follow-up period were investigated and compared. Results: The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index score decreased from an average of 58.4 (range, 40-88) before surgery to an average of 35.0 (range, 15-76) after surgery. Similarly, the visual analogue scale decreased from an average of 4.0 (range, 2-6) before surgery to an average of 1.4 (range, 0-4) after surgery. Sixteen patients (88.9%) showed pain relief and improvement in the straight leg raise test, and two patients showed postoperative muscle weakness and sustained pain. In the follow-up period, muscle weakness improved. One patient underwent arthroscopic iliopsoas tenotomy at the lesser trochanteric level but the symptoms persisted. The clinical symptoms were improved after one more tenotomy at the joint level. Conclusion: Arthroscopic iliopsoas tenotomy performed in patients with IPI after THA showed good clinical results.