• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scale Development

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Innovative approaches to the health problems of rural Korea (한국농촌보건(韓國農村保健)의 문제점(問題點)과 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Loh, In-Kyu
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.5-9
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    • 1976
  • The categories of national health problems may be mainly divided into health promotion, problems of diseases, and population-economic problems which are indirectly related to health. Of them, the problems of diseases will be exclusively dealt with this speech. Rurality and Disease Problems There are many differences between rural and urban areas. In general, indicators of rurality are small size of towns, dispersion of the population, remoteness from urban centers, inadequacy of public transportation, poor communication, inadequate sanitation, poor housing, poverty, little education lack of health personnels and facilities, and in-accessibility to health services. The influence of such conditions creates, directly or indirectly, many problems of diseases in the rural areas. Those art the occurrence of preventable diseases, deterioration and prolongation of illness due to loss of chance to get early treatment, decreased or prolonged labour force loss, unnecessary death, doubling of medical cost, and economic loss. Some Considerations of Innovative Approach The followings art some considerations of innovative approaches to the problems of diseases in the rural Korea. 1. It would be essential goal of the innovative approaches that the damage and economic loss due to diseases will be maintained to minimum level by minimizing the absolute amount of the diseases, and by moderating the fee for medical cares. The goal of the minimization of the disease amount may be achieved by preventive services and early treatment, and the goal of moderating the medical fee may be achieved by lowering the prime cost and by adjusting the medical fees to reasonable level. 2. Community health service or community medicine will be adopted as a innovative means to disease problems. In this case, a community is defined as an unit area where supply and utilization of primary service activities can be accomplished within a day. The essential nature o the community health service should be such activities as health promotion, preventive measures, medical care, and rehabilitation performing efficiently through the organized efforts of the residents in a community. Each service activity should cover all members of the residents in a community in its plan and performance. The cooperation of the community peoples in one of the essential elements for success of the service program, The motivations of their cooperative mood may be activated through several ways: when the participation of the residents in service program of especially the direct participation of organized cooperation of the area leaders art achieved through a means of health education: when the residents get actual experience of having received the benefit of good quality services; and when the health personnels being armed with an idealism that they art working in the areas to help health problems of the residents, maintain good human relationships with them. For the success of a community health service program, a personnel who is in charge of leadership and has an able, a sincere and a steady characters seems to be required in a community. The government should lead and support the community health service programs of the nation under the basis of results appeared in the demonstrative programs so as to be carried out the programs efficiently. Moss of the health problems may be treated properly in the community levels through suitable community health service programs but there might be some problems which art beyond their abilities to be dealt with. To solve such problems each community health service program should be under the referral systems which are connected with health centers, hospitals, and so forth. 3. An approach should be intensively groped to have a physician in each community. The shortage of physicians in rural areas is world-wide problem and so is the Korean situation. In the past the government has initiated a system of area-limited physician, coercion, and a small scale of scholarship program with unsatisfactory results. But there might be ways of achieving the goal by intervice, broadened, and continuous approaches. There will be several ways of approach to motivate the physicians to be settled in a rural community. They are, for examples, to expos the students to the community health service programs during training, to be run community health service programs by every health or medical schools and other main medical facilities, communication activities and advertisement, desire of community peoples to invite a physician, scholarship program, payment of satisfactory level, fulfilment of military obligation in case of a future draft, economic growth and development of rural communities, sufficiency of health and medical facilities, provision of proper medical care system, coercion, and so forth. And, hopefully, more useful reference data on the motivations may be available when a survey be conducted to the physicians who are presently engaging in the rural community levels. 4. In communities where the availability of a physician is difficult, a trial to use physician extenders, under certain conditions, may be considered. The reason is that it would be beneficial for the health of the residents to give them the remedies of primary medical care through the extenders rather than to leave their medical problems out of management. The followings are the conditions to be considered when the physician extenders are used: their positions will be prescribed as a temporary one instead of permanent one so as to allow easy replacement of the position with a physician applicant; the extender will be under periodic direction and supervision of a physician, and also referral channel will be provided: legal constraints will be placed upon the extenders primary care practice, and the physician extenders will used only under the public medical care system. 5. For the balanced health care delivery, a greater investment to the rural areas is needed to compensate weak points of a rurality. The characteristics of a rurality has been already mentioned. The objective of balanced service for rural communities to level up that of urban areas will be hard to achieve without greater efforts and supports. For example, rural communities need mobile powers more than urban areas, communication network is extremely necessary at health delivery facilities in rural areas as well as the need of urban areas, health and medical facilities in rural areas should be provided more substantially than those of urban areas to minimize, in a sense, the amount of patient consultation and request of laboratory specimens through referral system of which procedures are more troublesome in rural areas, and more intensive control measures against communicable diseases are needed in rural areas where greater numbers of cases are occurred under the poor sanitary conditions.

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Development for Fishing Gear and Method of the Non-Float Midwater Pair Trawl Net (III) - Opening Efficiency of the Model Net attaching the Kite - (무부자 쌍끌이 중층망 어구어법의 개발 (III) - 카이트를 부착한 모형어구의 전개성능 -)

  • 유제범;이주희;이춘우;권병국;김정문
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.197-210
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    • 2003
  • The non-float midwater pair trawl was effective in the mouth opening and control of the working depth in midwater and bottom. In contrast, we confirmed that it was difficult to keep the net at surface above 30 m of the depth by means of the full scale experiment in the field and the model test in the circulation water channel. To solve this problem, the kites were attached to the head rope of the non-float midwater pair trawl. In this study, four kinds of the model experiments were carried out with the purpose of applying the kite to the korean midwater pair trawl. The results obtained can be summarized as follows: 1. The working depth of the non-float midwater pair trawl with the kite was shallower than that of the proto type and non-float type. The working depth of the kite type was approximately 20m with 2 kites and about 5m with 4 kites under 4.0 knot. The working depth was almost constant but the depth of the head rope sank approximately 15m and 10m according to the increase in the front weight and the wing-end weight, respectively. The changing aspect of the working depth was constant, but the depth of the head rope sank approximately 22m according to the increase in the lower warp length (dL). 2. The hydrodynamic resistance of the kite type was almost increased in a linear form in accordance with the flow speed increase from 2.0 to 5.0 knot. The increasing grate of the hydrodynamic resistance tended to increase in accordance with the increase in flow speed. The hydrodynamic resistance of the kite type was larger approximately 5~10 ton larger than that of the non-float type and the proto type. The hydrodynamic resistance of the kite type increased approximately 3ton with the changing of the front weight from 1.40 to 3.50 ton and approximately 4 ton with the changing of the wing-end weight from 0 to 1.11 ton and approximately 5.5 ton with the changing lower warp length (dL) from 0 to 40 m, respectively. 3. The net height of the kite type was increased approximately 10 m with the change in the kite area from $2,270mm^2$ to 4,540 $\textrm{mm}^2$. The net height of the kite type was aproximately 50 m and 30 m larger than that of the proto type and the non-float type, respectively. The changed aspect of the net width was approximately 5m with the variation of the flow speed from 2.0 to 5.0 knot. 4. The filtering volume of the kite type was larger than that of the proto type and the non-float type by 28%, 34% at 2.0 knot of the flow speed and 42%, 41% at 3.0 knot, and 62%, 45% at 4.0 knot, and 74%, 54% at 5.0knot, respectively. The optimal towing speed was approximately 3.0 knot for the proto type and was over 4.0 knot for the non-float type, and the optimal towing speed reached 5.0 knot for the kite type. 5. The opening efficiency of the kite type was approximately 50% and 25% larger than that of the proto type and the non-float type, respectively.

A Study on Public Interest-based Technology Valuation Models in Water Resources Field (수자원 분야 공익형 기술가치평가 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-Mi;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.177-198
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.

The Cognitive Performance, Emotional and Behavioral Problems of the Children with ADHD Showing the Difference between Visual and Auditory Attention (시각 주의력과 청각 주의력의 차이를 보이는 주의력 결핍.과잉활동장애 아동의 인지기능과 정서 및 행동 문제)

  • Son, Jung Woo
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.70-81
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    • 2006
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences of the cognitive performance, emotional and behavioral problems among the attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder(ADHD) groups that show the difference between visual and auditory attention. Method : Using 'ADHD Diagnostic System(ADS)', visual attention and auditory attention of 98 children diagnosed as ADHD were measured. According to the omission and commission error of ADS, they were divided into three groups ; 1) the group whose each visual omission and commission error scores were higher than each auditory omission and commission error scores(VV group), 2) the group whose each auditory omission and commission error scores were higher than each visual omission and commission error scores(AA group), 3) the group that was the rest of VV and AA group(M group). And the results of both the subscales of Korean Educational Development Institute-Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children(KEDI-WISC) and the subscales of Korean Child Behavior Checklist(K-CBCL) among three groups were compared. Finally, the correlation between the visual omission, visual commission, auditory omission, auditory commission error and the results of KEDI-WISC, K-CBCL were investigated. Results : The results were as follows ; 1) In 98 ADHD children, the number of VV group(N=56) was higher than that of AA (N=10) and M group (N=32). 2) All mean scores of the subscales of KEDI-WISC of VV group were higher than those of M and AA group. The score of verbal IQ(p=.039) of VV group was significantly higher than that of AA group and the scores of block design(p=.015), Kaufman's factor 2(p=.045), performance IQ(p=.004) were significantly higher than those of M group. The score of full IQ(p=.004) were significantly higher than that of M and AA group. 3) The mean scores of all K-CBCL subscales of VV group were higher than those of M and AA group, except the score of Somatic complaint subscale. The score of Social subscale(p=.041) of VV group was significantly higher than that of AA group. The score of Withdrawn subscale(p=.021) of AA group was significantly higher than that of VV group. 4) There were no significant correlation between the scores of visual omission/commission error and those of each subscale of KEDI-WISC. But, there were many significant correlations between the scores of auditory omission/commission error and those of each subscale of KEDI-WISC. 5) There were significant correlation between the score of the visual omission error and that of Thought problem subscale(r=.205, p=.043) of K-CBCL. There were significant correlation between the scores of the auditory omission error and those of Social subscale(r=-.319, p=.001), Social problems subscale(r=.206, p=.042), Thought problem subscale(r=.235, p=.021). Finally, there were significant correlation between the scores of auditory commission error and those of Social subscale(r=-.241, p=.017), Thought problem subscale(r=.235, p=.020). Conclusion : The ADHD children whose auditory attention ability were higher than visual attention ability had relatively better cognitive performance and less emotional/behavioral problems than the others. The more comprehensive experiment will be needed about the cognitive performance, emotion and behavior problems of the ADHD children showing the difference between visual and auditory attention.

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Clinical Efficacy of Clomiphene Citrate and Letrozole Combined with Gonadotropins for Superovulation in Patients with Clomiphene-Induced Thin Endometrium (클로미펜에 얇은 자궁내막을 보이는 환자에서 성선자극호르몬 병합 과배란유도시 클로미펜과 레트로졸의 임상적 효용성)

  • Lee, Eun-Joo;Park, Hyun-Jong;Yang, Hyo-In;Lee, Kyung-Eun;Seo, Seok-Kyo;Kim, Hye-Yeon;Cho, Si-Hyun;Choi, Young-Sik;Lee, Byung-Seok;Park, Ki-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Jae
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2009
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the clinical efficacy of clomiphene citrate (CC) and letrozole combined with gonadotropins for controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) in patients with CC-induced thin endometrium Methods: Fifty-one intrauterine insemination cycles performed in patients who previously had a thin endometrium (<8 mm) to ovulation induction using CC were included in this study. A CC 100 mg/day (CC+gonadotropin group, n=26) or letrozole 2.5 or 5 mg/day (letrozole+gonadotropin group, n=25) was administered on day 3~7 of the menstrual cycle, combined with gonadotropins at dose 75~150 IU every other day starting on day 5~7. We compared total dose of gonadotropin used, endometrial thickness, endometrial pattern, number of follicles ${\geq}14\;mm$ on hCG day, pregnancy rate and multiple pregnancy rate between the two groups, which were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney U test or Fisher's exact test, where appropriate. Results: There were no significant differences in clinical characteristics such as age, duration of infertility, number of previous IUI cycles, basal serum hormone levels and cause of infertility between the two groups. In both groups, the endometrium was significantly thicker than that of previous ovulation induction cycles using CC. No significant differences were found in the total dose of gonadotropin used, day of hCG administration, the rate of triple endometrium and pregnancy rate. The number of follicles ${\geq}14\;mm$ was significantly lower ($3.7{\pm}1.7$ vs. $2.8{\pm}1.7$, p=0.03) and the endometrium on hCG day was significantly thicker ($7.7{\pm}1.5$ vs. $9.1{\pm}1.7$, p=0.001) in letrozole+gonadotropin group compared to CC+gonadotropin group. Conclusion: The clomiphene citrate and letrozole combined with gonadotropins appear to avoid the undesirable effects on the endometrium frequently seen with CC for ovulation induction. However, in terms of adequate endometrial development or optimal follicular growth, letrozole may be more beneficial than CC for gonadotropin-combined COS in patients with CC-induced thin endometrium. Further prospective randomized controlled studies in a larger scale will be necessary to confirm our findings.

Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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The Results of Hyperfractionated Radiotherapy on Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (국소적으로 진행된 비소세포 폐암에 대한 과분할 방사선 치료의 성적)

  • Hur, Won-Joo;Lee, Hyung-Sik;Kim, Jeong-Ki;Choi, Young-Min;Lee, Ho-Jun;Youn-Seon-Min;Kim, Jae-seok;Kim, Hyo-Jin;Woo-Jong-Soo;Choi, Pill-Jo;Lee, Ki-Nam
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : The effect of hyperfractionated radiotherapy on locally advanced non-small lung cancer was studied by a retrospective analysis. Materials & Methods : We analyzed sixty one patients of biopsy-confirmed, IIIA and IIIB non-small cell lung cancer. Using the ECOG performance scale, all the patients were scored less than 2. They were treated by curative hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone from Oct. 1992 to Oct. 1995 at the Department of Radiation Oncology. All the patients received 120cGy b.i.d with more than 6 hours interval between each fraction. The total dose of radiation was reached up to 6400-7080 cGy with a mean dose of 6934 cGy. The results were analyzed retrospectively. Results : The overall survival rate was 53 1$\%$ in 1 year, 9.9$\%$ in 2 years with a median survival time (MST) of 13.9 months. The progression free survival (PFS) rate was 37.0$\%$ in 1 year, 8.9$\%$ in 2 years. Twenty two Patients were classified as complete responders to this treatment and their MST was 19.5 months When this was compared with that of partial responders (MST: 11 7months), it was statistically significant (p=0.0003). Twenty nine patients of stage IIIA showed a better overall survival rate (1yr 63.3$\%$, 2yr 16.8$\%$) than IIIB patients (1yr 43.3$\%$, 2yr 3.6$\%$), which was also statistically significant (p=0.003). Patients with adenocarcinoma showed a better survival rate (1yr 64.3$\%$, 2yr 21.4$\%$) than that of squamous cell counterpart (1yr 49.4$\%$, 2yr 7.4$\%$), although this was not significant statistically (p=0.61). Two patients developed fatal radiation-induced pneumonia right after the completion of the treatment which progressed rapidly and they all died within 2 months. One patient developed radiation-induced fibrosis after 13 months. He refused further treatment and died soon after the development of fibrosis. Conclusion : Among locally advanced NSCLC, hyperfractionated radiotherapy was effective on stage IIIA patients by increasing MST with acceptable toxicities. Acute radiation-induced pneumonia should be carefully monitored and must be avoided during or after this treatment.

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A study on the factors to affect the career success among workers with disabilities (지체장애근로자의 직업성공 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dal-Yob
    • 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.185-216
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    • 2003
  • This study was aimed at investigating important factors influencing career success among regular workers. The current researcher scrutinized the degree to which variables and factors affect the career success and occupational turnover rates of the research participants. At the same tune, two hypothetical path models established by the researcher were examined using linear multiple regression methods and the LISREL. After examining the differences among the factors of career success, a comparison was made between the disabled worker group and the non-disabled worker group. A questionnaire using the 5-point Likert scale was distributed to a group of 374 workers with disabilities and 463 workers without disabilities. For the data analysis purpose, the structural equation model, factor analysis, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis were carried out. The results of this study ran be summarized as follows. First, the results of factor analysis showed important categories of conceptual themes of career success. The initial conceptual factor model did not accord with the empirical one. A three-factorial model revealed categories of personal, family, and organizational factor respectively. The personal factor was composed of the self-esteem and self-efficiency. The family factor was consisted of the multi-roles stress and the number of children. Finally, the organizational factor was composed of the capacity for utilizing resources, networking, and the frequency of mentoring. In addition, the total 10 sub areas of career success were divided by two important aspects; the subjective career success and the objective career success. Second, both research participant groups seemed to be influenced by their occupational types. However, all predictive variables excluding the wage rate and the average length of work years had significant impact on job success for the disabled work group, while all the variables excluding the frequency of advice and length of working years had significant impact on job success for the non-disabled worker group. Third, the turnover rate was significantly influenced by the age and the experience of turnover of the research participants. However, the number of co-workers was the strongest predictive variable for the worker group with disabilities, but the occupation choice variable for the worker group without disabilities. For the disabled worker group, the turnover rate was differently influenced by the type of occupation, the length of working years, while multi-role stress and the average working years at the time of turnover for the worker group without disabilities. Fifth, as a result of verifying the hypothetical path model, it showed that the first model was somewhat proper and could predict the career success on both research participant groups. In the second model, the Chi-square, the degree of freedom (($x^2=64.950$, df=61, P=0.341), and the adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) were .964, and the Comparative Fit Index (CFI) were .997, and the Root Mean Squared Residual (RMR) was respectively. .038. The model was best fitted and could predict the career success more highly because the goodness of fit index in the whole models was within the allowed range. In conclusion, the following research implications can be suggested. First, the occupational type of research participants was one of the most important variables to predict the career success for both research participant groups. It means that people with disabilities require human development services including education. They need to improve themselves in this knowledge-based society. Furthermore, for maintaining the career success, people with disabilities should be approached by considering the subjective career success aspects including wages and the promotion opportunities than the objective career success aspects.

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

A Study on Recent Research Trend in Management of Technology Using Keywords Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 통해 살펴본 기술경영의 최근 연구동향)

  • Kho, Jaechang;Cho, Kuentae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2013
  • Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and technologies, and technological convergence. Therefore, the identification of major trends in technology research and the interdisciplinary knowledge-based prediction of integrated technologies and promising techniques are required for firms to gain and sustain competitive advantage and future growth engines. The aim of this paper is to understand the recent research trend in management of technology (MOT) and to foresee promising technologies with deep knowledge for both technology and business. Furthermore, this study intends to give a clear way to find new technical value for constant innovation and to capture core technology and technology convergence. Bibliometrics is a metrical analysis to understand literature's characteristics. Traditional bibliometrics has its limitation not to understand relationship between trend in technology management and technology itself, since it focuses on quantitative indices such as quotation frequency. To overcome this issue, the network focused bibliometrics has been used instead of traditional one. The network focused bibliometrics mainly uses "Co-citation" and "Co-word" analysis. In this study, a keywords network analysis, one of social network analysis, is performed to analyze recent research trend in MOT. For the analysis, we collected keywords from research papers published in international journals related MOT between 2002 and 2011, constructed a keyword network, and then conducted the keywords network analysis. Over the past 40 years, the studies in social network have attempted to understand the social interactions through the network structure represented by connection patterns. In other words, social network analysis has been used to explain the structures and behaviors of various social formations such as teams, organizations, and industries. In general, the social network analysis uses data as a form of matrix. In our context, the matrix depicts the relations between rows as papers and columns as keywords, where the relations are represented as binary. Even though there are no direct relations between papers who have been published, the relations between papers can be derived artificially as in the paper-keyword matrix, in which each cell has 1 for including or 0 for not including. For example, a keywords network can be configured in a way to connect the papers which have included one or more same keywords. After constructing a keywords network, we analyzed frequency of keywords, structural characteristics of keywords network, preferential attachment and growth of new keywords, component, and centrality. The results of this study are as follows. First, a paper has 4.574 keywords on the average. 90% of keywords were used three or less times for past 10 years and about 75% of keywords appeared only one time. Second, the keyword network in MOT is a small world network and a scale free network in which a small number of keywords have a tendency to become a monopoly. Third, the gap between the rich (with more edges) and the poor (with fewer edges) in the network is getting bigger as time goes on. Fourth, most of newly entering keywords become poor nodes within about 2~3 years. Finally, keywords with high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are "Innovation," "R&D," "Patent," "Forecast," "Technology transfer," "Technology," and "SME". The results of analysis will help researchers identify major trends in MOT research and then seek a new research topic. We hope that the result of the analysis will help researchers of MOT identify major trends in technology research, and utilize as useful reference information when they seek consilience with other fields of study and select a new research topic.