• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.105-126
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• 2021

Purpose The purpose of this study is to implement a optimal machine learning model about the cancellation prediction performance in car sales business. It is to apply the data set of accumulated contract, cancellation, and sales information in sales support system(SFA) which is commonly used for sales, customers and inventory management by imported car dealers, to several machine learning models and predict performance of cancellation. Design/methodology/approach This study extracts 29,073 contracts, cancellations, and sales data from 2015 to 2020 accumulated in the sales support system(SFA) for imported car dealers and uses the analysis program Python Jupiter notebook in order to perform data pre-processing, verification, and modeling that is applying and learning to Machine learning model after then the final result was predicted using new data. Findings This study confirmed that cancellation prediction is possible by applying car purchase contract information to machine learning models. It proved the possibility of developing and utilizing a generalized predictive model by using data of imported car sales system with machine learning technology. It can reduce and prevent the sales failure as caring the potential lost customer intensively and it lead to increase sales revenue by predicting the cancellation possibility of individual customers.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.701-704
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• 2014

This Paper proposed the analysis and prediction method of beverage sales. We assumed weather had a relationship with beverage sales. We got the output as sales amount from a temperature and humidity of weather as input by using polynomial equation. We had modelling as quadric function with input and output data. In order to verify the effectiveness of proposed method, the sales data were collected over a 4 months during February 2014. The results showed that the proposed method can estimate sales data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1047-1058
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• 2008

Prediction of total sales in information security industry is considered. Exponential smoothing and spline smoothing is applied to the time series of annual sales data. Due to the different survey items of every year, we recollect the original survey data by some basic criterion and predict the sales to 2014. We show the total sales in infonnation security industry are increasing gradually by year.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1232-1245
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• 2021

In this study, prediction of product sales as they relate to changes in temperature is proposed. This model uses long short-term memory (LSTM), which has shown excellent performance for time series predictions. For verification of the proposed sales prediction model, the sales of short pants, flip-flop sandals, and winter outerwear are predicted based on changes in temperature and time series sales data for clothing products collected from 2015 to 2019 (a total of 1,865 days). The sales predictions using the proposed model show increases in the sale of shorts and flip-flops as the temperature rises (a pattern similar to actual sales), while the sale of winter outerwear increases as the temperature decreases.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.29-38
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a sales forecasting model that forecasts the sales volume of short sleeves and outerwear according to the temperature change by utilizing accumulated big data from the online shopping mall 'A' over the past five years to increase sales volume and efficient inventory management. The proposed model predicts sales of short sleeves and outerwear according to temperature changes in 2018 by analyzing sales volume of short sleeves and outerwear from 2014 to 2017. Using the proposed sales forecasting model, we compared the sales forecasts of 2018 with the actual sales volume and found that the error rates are ±1.5% and ±8% for short sleeve and outerwear respectively.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.67-75
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• 2021

Despite the increase in sales of imported vehicles in Korea, research on the sales forecast of parts logistics centers is very limited. This study aims to perform a sales prediction on bestselling goods in the automobile part logistics center. System dynamics was adopted as a methodology for the prediction method, which considered causal relationship of variables that affected the dynamic characteristics and feedback loops. The analysis results showed that the consumable sales amount of oil increased over time. As a result of conducting the MAPE, the model was assessed to be a reasonable predictive model of 31.3%. In addition, the sales of battery products increased from every October in both of actual and predicted data followed by the peak sales in December and then decrease from next February. This study has academic implications that it secured actual data of specific imported automobile part logistics center, which has not done before in previous studies and quantitatively analyzed the prediction of the quantity of released goods of future sales through system dynamics.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.217-232
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• 2021

The Korea film industry has matured and the number of movie-watching per capita has reached the highest level in the world. Since then, movie industry growth rate is decreasing and even the total sales of movies per year slightly decreased in 2018. The number of moviegoers is the first factor of sales in movie industry and also an important factor influencing additional sales. Thus it is important to predict the number of movie audiences. In this study, we predict the cumulative number of audiences of films using stacking, an ensemble method. Stacking is a kind of ensemble method that combines all the algorithms used in the prediction. We use box office data from Korea Film Council and web comment data from Daum Movie (www.movie.daum.net). This paper describes the process of collecting and preprocessing of explanatory variables and explains regression models used in stacking. Final stacking model outperforms in the prediction of test set in terms of RMSE.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.217-224
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• 2022

Since online shopping has become common, people can easily buy fashion goods anytime, anywhere. Therefore, consumers quickly respond to various environmental variables such as weather and sales prices. Therefore, utilizing big data for efficient inventory management has become very important in the fashion industry. In this paper, the changes in sales volume of fashion goods due to changes in temperature is analyzed via the proposed big data analysis algorithm by utilizing actual big data from Korean fashion company 'A'. According to the simulation results, it was confirmed that Bidirectional-LSTM(Bi-LSTM) compared to LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) takes more simulation time about more than 50%, but the prediction accuracy of non-periodic time series data such as clothing product sales data is the same.

• IE interfaces
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.448-457
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• 2007

The small & micro business has the characteristics of both consumer credit risk and business credit risk. In predicting the bankruptcy for small-micro businesses, the problem is that in most cases, the financial data for evaluating business credit risks of small & micro businesses are not available. To alleviate such problem, we propose a bankruptcy prediction mechanism using the credit card sales information available, because most small businesses are member store of some credit card issuers, which is the main purpose of this study. In order to perform this study, we derive some variables and analyze the relationship between good and bad signs. We employ the new statistical learning technique, support vector machines (SVM) as a classifier. We use grid search technique to find out better parameter for SVM. The experimental result shows that credit card sales information could be a good substitute for the financial data for evaluating business credit risk in predicting the bankruptcy for small-micro businesses. In addition, we also find out that SVM performs best, when compared with other classifiers such as neural networks, CART, C5.0 multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and logistic regression.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.109-115
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• 2024

To develop a shipping company insolvency prediction model, we sampled shipping companies that closed between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a closed company and a normal company with similar asset size were selected as a paired sample. For this study, data of a total of 82 companies, including 42 closed companies and 42 general companies, were obtained. These data were randomly divided into a training set (2/3 of data) and a testing set (1/3 of data). Training data were used to develop the model while test data were used to measure the accuracy of the model. In this study, a prediction model for Korean shipping insolvency was developed using financial ratio variables frequently used in previous studies. First, using the LASSO technique, main variables out of 24 independent variables were reduced to 9. Next, we set insolvent companies to 1 and normal companies to 0 and fitted logistic regression, LDA and QDA model. As a result, the accuracy of the prediction model was 82.14% for the QDA model, 78.57% for the logistic regression model, and 75.00% for the LDA model. In addition, variables 'Current ratio', 'Interest expenses to sales', 'Total assets turnover', and 'Operating income to sales' were analyzed as major variables affecting corporate insolvency.