• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2010.03a
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.143-148
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• 2022

This paper attempted to analyze the correlation between the risk image of the evacuees in the tunnel and the variables that affect the evacuation behavior due to the closed feeling. As to whether there is a difference in the level of recognizing the tunnel risk image according to the distribution of jobs, the null hypothesis was rejected at the significance probability of 0.002, so it can be said that the level of recognition of the tunnel risk image varies depending on the job group. In the distribution difference between gender and tunnel risk image recognition level, the significance probability was 0.012, indicating that the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that the tunnel risk recognition distribution according to gender was different. As a result of analyzing the distribution difference between the tunnel's closed feeling and the tunnel risk perception level, the significance probability was 0.001, and the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that there was a difference in the tunnel risk image level.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.9-16
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• 2019

The frequency of major accidents which has probability of occurrence at the high pressure underground pipeline of industrial estate such an Ulsan, Yeo-ju by the other construction such as an excavation work will be compared to city gas underground pipeline to derive the basic event by the FTA and present. Also, Observe and analyze the pipe damage impact factor such as an excavation frequency, patrol cycle. As a result, It contributes to the safety improvement of high pressure gas buried pipeline due to obtain importance and sensitivity of the pipe damge impact factors.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.631-645
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• 2011

The capacity design rule for beam-column joints, as adopted by the EC8, forces the formation of the plastic hinges to be developed in beams rather than in columns. This is achieved by deriving the design moments of the columns of a joint from equilibrium conditions, assuming that plastic hinges with their possible overstrengths have been developed in the adjacent beams of the joint. In this equilibrium the parameters (dimensions, material properties, axial forces etc) are, in general, random variables. Hence, the capacity design is associated with a probability of non-compliance (probability of failure). In the present study the probability of non-compliance of the capacity design rule of joints is being calculated by assuming the basic variables as random variables. Parameters affecting this probability are examined and a modification of the capacity design rule for beam-column joints is proposed, in order to achieve uniformity of the safety level.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.37-52
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• 2017

To quantitatively assess the safety against seismic collapse of eccentrically braced steel frame (EBSF) system, 24 typical EBSFs with K-shape and V-shape braces with seismic precautionary intensities 8 and 9 were designed complying with China seismic design code and relative codes to constitute archetype space of this structure system. In the archetype space, the collapse probability of the structural system under maximum considered earthquakes (MCE) was researched. The results show that the structures possess necessary safety against seismic collapse when they respectively encounter the maximum considered earthquakes corresponding to their seismic precautionary levels, and their collapse probabilities increase with increasing seismic precautionary intensities. Moreover, the EBSFs with V-shape braces have smaller collapse probability, thus greater capacity against seismic collapse than those with K-shape braces.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.5-12
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• 2014

A slope may fail after construction owing to external factors such as localized rainfall, earthquake, and weathering. Therefore, the grasp of failure probability for slope failures is necessary to maintain their stability. In particular, it is very difficult to detect the symptoms of rock slope failure in advance by using traditional methods, such as displacement due to the brittleness of rocks. However, Acoustic Emission (AE) techniques can predict slope failures earlier than the traditional methods. This study grasped failure probability of slope by applying AE techniques to a rock slope with a history of collapse. When applying AE techniques to a slope that has a high probability of failure, the grasp of failure probability of the specific location became possible.

• Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.214-219
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• 1997

In spite of many accidents still occur repeatedly. The reason why we have so many accidents in industrial plants is mainly due to lack of effective safety education. Most safety education committed by safety staff is composed of general education and/or accident case studies. However, it is quite natural that the safety education should be more task- specific rather than general, if it be effective. Thus for preventing gas leakage accidents during changing explosive gas cylinders, this study aimed to analyze a manual chaning work in semiconductor plants, and to deaw importamt educational points. With the help of HRA and ETA, the most important task truned out to be reconfirmation of regulator gauges. Under the assump- tion of independent events, the estimated leakage probability was 23004E-05 which seriously understimated the probability, 8.1008E-05 under the assumption of dependent events. And the most probable situation would be gas leakge from the used gas cylinder. It was made clear that the assumption of independence could distrot safety educational focus.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.47-58
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• 1985

A new approach is develped to analyze the reliability of the shallow foundation. The measure of the safety of the structhure is expressed In terms of the probability of failure, instead of the conventional factor of safety. Many uncertainties involved in the deterministic stability anaitsis can be reasouably treated by using the probabilistic approach. Both the soil properties and loads are assumed to be random variables. Accordingly, the capacity and demand are considered to be normal, log-normal, and beta variated. Use is made of Error Propagation Method to investigate the probability of failure. And the relationship is investigated between the probability of failure and the central factor of safety. The results are computer programed and several case studies are performed using developed program.