• Title/Summary/Keyword: Safety Estimation

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Research on the assessment of the risk factors of serious railway accidents (철도 중대사고의 위험지수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Soon-Woo;Cho, Yun-Ok;Yoon, Hyuk-Jin;Kim, Sang-Ahm
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.1871-1876
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    • 2007
  • To establish the national railway safety system, the railway total safety technology development project has been promoted by Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT) since August 2004. The project has producted successful results in many areas of railway safety, however, it is required that the research field should be re-examined to meet the aim of the project. To do that, the precedence of the investment of research resources should be reviewed and determined. The risk of serious railway accidents such as train collision, derailment and level crossing accidents are estimated. From the estimation result and the statistics on the railway accidents over fast few years, the risk factors of railway accidents can be calculated.

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Landscape Design Method of Bridges and Visual Safety Estimation of Structural Shape (교량의 경관설계 방법과 구조형상의 시각적 안전성 평가)

  • Yang, Seung Hyoun;Shiomi, Hiroyuki
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 1998
  • In the design of bridges, the points of concem are the landscape design, the function, safety and economical efficiency. But most of studies have been performed on structural engineering. The study on the landscape design of bridges has not been done in korea. Therefore, in this research, the design method of bridges by the judgement of structural engineering and landscape engineering has been proposed, through the process to decide the shape of bridges. Also, the research studies a problem about the visual safety of the structural shape in the landscape design of bridges. The visual experiments applied to the seven models about the shape of hunch in bridge pier. The experiment was made in moving velocity of view point, steady looking time and track of eyeball movement.

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Application of Probabilistic Technique for the Development of Fire Accident Scenarios in Railway Tunnel (확률론적 기법을 활용한 철도터널의 화재사고 시나리오의 구성)

  • 곽상록;홍선호;왕종배;조연옥
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.302-306
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    • 2004
  • Many long railway tunnels without emergency evacuation system or ventilation system are under construction or in-use in Korea. In the case of tunnel-fire, many fatalities are occur in current condition. Current safety level is estimated in this study, for the efficient investment on safety. But so many uncertainties in major input parameters make the safety estimation difficult. In this study, probabilistic techniques are applied for the consideration of uncertainties in major input parameters. As results of this study, accident scenarios and survival ratio under tunnel fire accident are determined for various conditions.

A Study on the Safety Management of Streamflows by the Kalman Filtering Theory (Kalman Filtering 이론에 의한 하천 유출 안전관리에 관한 연구)

  • 박종권;박종구;이영섭
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.122-127
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study has been studied and investigated to prediction algorithms of the Kalman Filtering theory which are based on the state-vector description, including system identification, model structure determination, parameter estimation. And the prediction algorithms applied of rainfall-runoff process, has been worked out. The analysis of runoff process and runoff prediction algorithms of the river-basin established, for the verification of prediction algorithms by the Kalman Filtering theory, the observed historical data of the hourly rainfall and streamflows were used for the algorithms. In consisted of the above, Kalman Filtering rainfall-runoff model applied and analysised to Wi-Stream basin in Nak-dong River(Basin area : $472.53km^2$).

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Analysis of Old Driver's Accident Influencing Factors Considering Human Factors (인적특성을 고려한 고령 운전자 교통사고 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Kyung;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2009
  • This paper reports the aging driver traffic accident severity modeling results. For the modeling, Poisson regression approach is applied using the data set obtained from the Korea Transportation Safety Authority's simulator-based driver aptitude test results. The test items include the estimations of moving objects' speed and stopping distance, drivers' multi-task capability, and kinetic depth perception and so on. The resulting model with the response variable of equivalent property damage only(EPDO) indicated that EPDO is significantly influenced by moving objects' speed estimation and drivers' multi-task capabilities. More interestingly, a comparison with the younger driver model revealed that the degradation of such capabilities may result in severer crashes for older drivers as suggested by the higher estimated parameters for the older driver model.

A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

  • Park, Gee-Yong;Jang, Seung Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2014
  • A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM), where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

Estimation of Launch Vehicle Tracking Error due to Radio Refraction (레이다 전파굴절에 의한 발사체 추적오차 추정)

  • Seo, Gwang-Gyo;Kim, Yoonsoo;Shin, Vladimir;Song, Ha-Ryong;Choi, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.12
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    • pp.1076-1083
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    • 2017
  • This paper discusses the error estimation in radar measurement data obtained while tracking a launch vehicle. It is known that typical radar measurement data consist of the true positional or orientation information on the vehicle being tracked, random noise and a deterministic bias due to radio refraction. Unlike previous research works, this paper proposes a tracking-error (mainly bias) estimation method solely based on the single radar measurement with no aid of other measurement such as GPS. The proposed method has been verified with real measurement data obtained while tracking the KSLV-I launch vehicle.

Estimation of the Number of Salmonellosis Using Microbial Risk Assessment Methodology (미생물 위해성 평가 방법을 이용한 살모넬라 발생수 추정)

  • 최은영;박경진
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2004
  • The number of foodborne salmonellosis was estimated by using microbial risk assessment(MRA) methodology and the possibility of application was studied through comparison with previous results. The contamination levels of Salmonella sp. were estimated by using published domestic studies(1997∼2000) and monitoring data (1999∼2001) from food-safety related institutes. Data on food consumption came from the 2001 National Health and Nutrition Survey, and dose-response models from studies in other countries. Simulation results showed that there were 753,368 cases of salmonellosis in Korea in 1 year, which is about 115 times that reported in previous years and lower than the WHO's estimation increase. From these results, microbial risk assessment is likely to be available for estimation of the number of foodborne illnesses and determination of the order of priority in food-safety management. Butthe verification methods are not established and most of the data on contamination levels of foodborne bacteria, food consumption, and dose-response relationships have not been established. In addition, the actual conditions of circulation, storage and cooking must be studied further.

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A Study on the Development of Risk Assessment for Sunken Vessels Using Remaining-Fuel Estimations Model (선박 연료유 잔존량 추정모델을 이용한 침몰선박 위해도 평가)

  • Chang, Woo-Jin;Lee, Seung-Hyun;Yeom, Hong-Jun;Lee, In-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2016
  • Sunken vessels accidents have harmful impacts on the marine environment because of oils and chemicals in the vessels. The government has managed them and developed risk assessment which can evaluate potential risk quantitatively since 1999. But the grades of present risk assessment has changed greatly depending on quantity of remaining fuel oils, and the list of remaining fuel oils omitted in status report of sunken vessels. Therefore, the aim of the study is to estimate and develop model for quantity of remaining fuel oils and verify the remaining fuel estimation comparison with active vessels. To accomplish the purpose of the study, apply this verified estimation model to current risk assessment and recommend guideline for an accurate sunken vessels risk assessment.

Quantitative Comparison of Activity Calculation Methods for the Selection of Most Reliable Radionuclide Inventory Estimation

  • Hwang, Ki-Ha;Lee, Sang-Chul;Lee, Kun-Jai;Jeong, Chan-Woo;Ahn, Sang-Myeon;Kim, Tae-Wook;Kim, Kyoung-Doek;Herr, Y.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.322-327
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    • 2003
  • It is important to know the accurate radionuclide inventory of radioactive waste for the reliable management. However, estimation of radionuclide concentrations in drummed radioactive waste is difficult and unreliable because of difficulties of direct detection, high cost, and radiation exposure of sampling personnel. In order to overcome these difficulties, scaling factors (SFs) have been used to assess the activities of radionuclides that could not be directly analyzed. A radionuclide assay system has been operated at KORI site since 1996 and consolidated scaling factor method has played a dominant role in determination of radionuclides concentrations. However, some problems are still remained such as uncertainty of estimated scaling factor values, inaccuracy of analyzed sample values, and disparity between the actual and ideal correlation pairs and the others. Therefore, it needs to improve the accuracy of scaling factor values. The scope of this paper is focused on the improvement of accuracy and representativeness of calculated scaling factor values based on statistical techniques. For the selection of reliable activity determination method, the accuracy of estimated SF values for each activity determination method is compared. From the comparison of each activity determination methods, it is recommended that SF determination method should be changed from the arithmetic mean to the geometrical mean for more reliable estimation of radionuclide activity. Arithmetic mean method and geometric mean method are compared based on the data set in KORI system.

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