• 대기
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.149-164
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to introduce the improvement of current operational climate prediction system of KMA and to compare previous and improved that. Whereas the previous system is based on GloSea5GA3, the improved one is built on GloSea5GC2. GloSea5GC2 is a fully coupled global climate model with an atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice and land components through the coupler OASIS. This is comprised of component configurations Global Atmosphere 6.0 (GA6.0), Global Land 6.0 (GL6.0), Global Ocean 5.0 (GO5.0) and Global Sea Ice 6.0 (GSI6.0). The compositions have improved sea-ice parameters over the previous model. The model resolution is N216L85 (~60 km in mid-latitudes) in the atmosphere and ORCA0.25L75 ($0.25^{\circ}$ on a tri-polar grid) in the ocean. In this research, the predictability of each system is evaluated using by RMSE, Correlation and MSSS, and the variables are 500 hPa geopotential height (h500), 850 hPa temperature (t850) and Sea surface temperature (SST). A predictive performance shows that GloSea5GC2 is better than GloSea5GA3. For example, the RMSE of h500 of 1-month forecast is decreased from 23.89 gpm to 22.21 gpm in East Asia. For Nino3.4 area of SST, the improvements to GloSeaGC2 result in a decrease in RMSE, which become apparent over time. It can be concluded that GloSea5GC2 has a great performance for seasonal prediction.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제26권7호
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• pp.706-713
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• 2005

엘니뇨현상과 관련된 해양 아표층 변동성을 조사하기 위해 1980년부터 2004년까지의 적도 해역의 20도 등온선 깊이(Z20)와 난수질량(WWV) 자료를 분석하였다. 주성분 분석, 합성 분석 및 교차상관 분석 결과, 아표층 시계열 자료는 Nino3.4 SST와 유의미한 시간 지연을 가지고 강한 상관성을 보였다. 이 결과는 아표층 해양 변수가 엘니뇨현상에 유용한 예측 인자임을 시사한다. 분석된 결과를 근거로 1996년부터 2004년까지 Nino3.4 SST를 예측하기 위해 신경망 예측 모델을 구성하였다. 해상풍을 입력 자료로 사용하였을 경우 보다 WWV를 적용하였을 때 3개월 이하의 단기 예측을 제외하고 모든 예측 시간에서 더 우수한 예측력을 보였으며, 5-8개월의 예측에 있어서는 기존의 여러 통계 모델 결과보다 예측 성능이 우수함을 확인하였다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.11-29
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• 2009

Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Japan/East Sea (JES) was studied using complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis. Two daily data sets were analyzed: (1) New Generation 0.05o-gridded SST from Tohoku University, Japan (July 2002-July 2006), and (2) 0.25o-gridded SST from the Japan Meteorological Agency (October 1993-November 2006). Linkages with wind stress curl were revealed using 6-h 1o-gridded surface zonal and meridional winds from ancillary data of the Sea- WiFS Project, a special National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) product (1998-2005). SST anomalies (SSTA) were obtained by removing the seasonal signal, estimated as the leading mode of the CEOF decomposition of the original SST. Leading CEOF modes of residual SSTA obtained from both data sets were consistent with each other and were characterized by annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial time scales estimated with 95% statistical significance. The Semiannual Mode lagged 2 months behind the increased occurrence of the anticyclonic (AC) wind stress curl over the JES. Links to dynamic processes were investigated by numerical simulations using an oceanic model. The suggested dynamic forcings of SSTA are the inflow of subtropical water into the JES through the Korea Strait, divergence in the surface layer induced by Ekman suction, meridional shifts of the Subarctic Front in the western JES, AC eddy formation, and wind-driven strengthening/weakening of large-scale currents. Events of west-east SSTA movement were identified in July-September. The SSTA moved from the northeastern JES towards the continental coast along the path of the westward branch of the Tsushima Current at a speed consistent with the advective scale.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2001년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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• pp.51-57
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• 2001

The eddy viscosity turbulence models were applied to predict the flows through a cascade, and the prediction performances of turbulence models were assessed by comparing with the experimental results for a controlled diffusion(CD) compressor blade. The original $\kappa-\omega$ turbulence model and $\kappa-\omega$ shear stress transport(SST) turbulence model were used as two-equation turbulence model which were enhanced for a low Reynolds number flow and the Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model was used as algebraic turbulence model. Farve averaged Wavier-Stokes equations in a two-dimensional, curvilinear coordinate system were solved by an implicit, cell-centered finite-volume computer code. The turbulence quantities are obtained by lagging when the men flow equations have been updated. The numerical analysis was made to the flows of CD compressor blade in a cascade at three different incidence angles (40. 43.4. 46 degrees). We found the reversion in the prediction performance of original $\kappa-\omega$ turbulence model and $\kappa-\omega$ SST turbulence model when the incidence angie increased. And the algebraic Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model showed inferiority to two-equation turbulence models.

• 한국전산유체공학회지
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• 제10권4호통권31호
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• pp.12-17
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• 2005

A computational study of evaluation of current turbulence models is performed for a better prediction of thermal stratification in an upper plenum of a liquid metal reactor. The turbulence models tested in the present study are the two-layer model, the shear stress transport (SST) model, the v2-f model and the elliptic blending mode(EBM). The performances of the turbulence models are evaluated by applying them to the thermal stratification experiment conducted at JNC (Japan Nuclear Corporation). The algebraic flux model is used for treating the turbulent heat flux for the two-layer model and the SST model, and there exist little differences between the two turbulence models in predicting the temporal variation of temperature. The v2-f model and the elliptic blending model better predict the steep gradient of temperature at the interface of thermal stratification, and the v2-f model and elliptic blending model predict properly the oscillation of the ensemble-averaged temperature. In general the overall performance of the elliptic blending model is better than the v2-f model in the prediction of the amplitude and frequency of the temperature oscillation.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2006년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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• pp.77-82
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• 2006

Evaluation of the elliptic blending turbulence model (EBM) together with the two-layer model, shear stress transport (SST) model and elliptic relaxation model (V2-F) is performed for a better prediction of natural convection and thermal stratification. For a natural convection problem the models are applied to the prediction of a natural convection in a rectangular cavity and the computed results are compared with the experimental data. It is shown that the elliptic blending model predicts as good as or better than the existing second moment differential stress and flux model for the mean velocity and turbulent quantities. For thermal stratification problem the models are applied to the thermal stratification in the upper plenum of liquid metal reactor. In this analysis there exist much differences between the turbulence models in predicting the temporal variation of temperature. The V2-F model and EBM better predict the steep gradient of temperature at the interface of thermal stratification, and the V2-F model and EBM predict properly the oscillation of temperature. The two-layer model and SST model fail to predict the temporal oscillation of temperature.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.182-193
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• 2017

A typical snowfall pattern occurs over the east coastal region of the Korean Peninsula, known as the Yeongdong region. The precipitation over the Yeongdong region is influenced by the cold and dry northeasterly wind which advects over warm and moist sea surface of the East Sea of Korea. This study reveals the influence of large-scale factors, affecting local to remote areas, on the mesoscale snowfall system over the Yeongdong region. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy reanalysis dataset, Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature, and observed snowfall data are analyzed to reveal the relationship between February snowfall and large-scale factors from 1981 to 2014. The Yeongdong snowfall is associated with the sea level pressure patterns over the Gaema Plateau and North Pacific near the Bering Sea, which is remotely associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific. It is presented that the relationship between the Yeongdong snowfall and large-scale factors is strengthened after 1999 when the central north Pacific has warm anomalous SST. These enhanced relationships explain the atmospheric patterns of recent strong snowfall years (2010, 2011, and 2014). It is suggested that the newly defined index in this study based on related SST variability can be used for a seasonal predictor of the Yeongdong snowfall with 2-month leading.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.375-388
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• 2009

Numerical simulation is essential to indicate the flow of the atmosphere in the region with a complicated topography which consists of many mountains in the inland while it is neighboring the seashore. Such complicated topography produces land and sea breeze as the mesoscale phenomenon of meteorology which results from the effect of the sea and inland. In the mesoscale simulation examines, the change of the temperature in relation to the one of the sea surface for the boundary condition and, in the inland, the interaction between the atmosphere and land surface reflecting the characteristic of the land surface. This research developed and simulated PNULSM to reflect both the SST and vegetation effect as a bottom boundary for detailed meteorological numerical simulation in coastal urban area. The result from four experiments performed according to this protocol revealed the change of temperature field and wind field depending on each effect. Therefore, the lower level of establishment of bottom boundary suitable for the characteristic of the region is necessary to figure out the atmospheric flow more precisely, and if the characteristic of the surface is improved to more realistic conditions, it will facilitate the simulation of regional environment.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2005년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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• pp.105-110
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• 2005

Evaluation of elliptic blending turbulence model (EBM) together with the two-layer model, shear stress transport (SST) model and elliptic relaxation model (V2-F) is performed for a better prediction of thermal stratification in an upper plenum of a liquid metal reactor by applying them to the experiment conducted at JNC. The algebraic flux model is used for treating the turbulent heat flux. There exist much differences between turbulence models in predicting the temporal variation of temperature. The V2-F model and the EBM better predict the steep gradient of temperature at the interface of thermal stratification, and the V2-F model and EBM predict properly the oscillation of temperature. The two-layer model and SST model fail to predict the temporal oscillation of temperature.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.545-561
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• 2018

Over the North East Asia, extreme anomalous precipitation were observed in 2013 and 2014. During 2013 summer the precipitation was found to be higher (two standard deviation) than the climatological mean of the region; whereas during 2014, which was a borderline El Ni?o year, precipitation was found to be lower (one standard deviation). To understand the differences of these two anomalous years the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been used. The study found that low landsurface temperature and high sea-surface temperature over ocean caused a smaller land-sea contrast of surface temperature between East Asia and North West Pacific Ocean in 2014, which could have caused an eastward shift of mean monsoon circulation in that year compared to the circulation in 2013. Due to a change in the lower level circulation and wind field over East Asia the evaporation and moisture transport patterns became very different in those two years. In 2013, this study found high latent heat flux over Eastern China, which implies an increased surface evaporation over that region, and the moisture transported to the north by the mean monsoon circulation; whereas, there was no correlated transport of moisture to the North East Asia during 2014. The precipitable water over North East Asia has a stronger correlation with the latent heat flux over southern land region than that from Ocean region in the eastern side in both the years. A new approach is proposed to estimate the sub-grid scale hydrometeors from GRIMs, overestimated in the existing model.