• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.11
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• pp.737-749
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• 2023

In this study, we analyzed the hydrological impacts of future climate change on Jeju Island using SSP-based climate change scenarios from 18 climate models and watershed modeling (SWAT-K). Despite discrepancies among climate models, we generally observed an increase in evapotranspiration due to rising future temperatures. Furthermore, a significant increase in runoff and recharge was noted due to increased precipitation. These increasing trends were particularly pronounced in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and differences among GCM models became more significant in the late 21 century. When compared to the historical period (1981-2010), the projected changes for the far-future period (2071-2100) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario showed a 21.4% increase in precipitation, a 19.2% increase in evapotranspiration, a 40.9% increase in runoff, and a 16.6% increase in recharge on an annual average basis. On a monthly basis in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, precipitation was expected to increase by 24.5% in September, evapotranspiration by 34.1% in April, runoff by 58.1% in October, and recharge by 33.8% in September. To further assess projections based on extreme climate scenarios, we selected two models, CanESM5 and ACCESS-ESM1-5, which represented the maximum and minimum future precipitation forecasts, and compared the hydrological changes in the future scenarios. The results indicated that runoff and recharge rates were relatively higher in the CanESM5 model with the highest precipitation forecast, while evapotranspiration rates were higher in the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model with the lowest precipitation forecast. Based on the climate change scenarios used in this study, the overall available water resources on Jeju Island are more likely to increase. However, since results vary by season and region depending on the climate model and scenario, it is considered necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis and develop response measures using various scenarios.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2024

The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21^st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1-11
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• 2022

Recently, climate change has been regarded as a major cause of large-scale forest fires worldwide, and there is concern that more frequent and severe forest fires will occur due to the level of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the daily Keetch and Byram Drought Index (KBDI) of the Baekdudaegan in Chungcheong region including Sobaeksan, Songnisan, and Woraksan National Parks were calculated to assess effect of climate change on the forest fire potential- severity of annual maximum KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. The present (2000~2019) and future KBDI(2021~2040, 2041~2060, 2081~2090) were calculated based on the meteorological observation and the ensemble regional climate model of the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1-km provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 6.5℃ increase and 14% precipitation increase are expected at the end of the 21st century. The severity of maximum daily KBDI increases by 48% (+50mm), and the frequency of high KBDI days (> 100 KBDI) increases more than 100 days, which means the high potential for serious forest fires. The analysis results showed that Songnisan National Park has the highest potential for forest fire risk and will continue to be high in intensity and frequency in the future. It is expected that the forest vulnerability of the Baekdudaegan in the Chungcheong region will greatly increase and the difficulty in preventing and suppressing forest fires will increase as the abundance of combustible materials increases along with climate changes.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.2
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• pp.35-52
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• 2024

This study conducted an assessment of potential impacts on the drought in agricultural reservoirs using the recently proposed SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on agricultural water resources and infrastructure vulnerability within Gyeongsangnam-do, focusing on 15 agricultural reservoirs. The assessment was based on the KRC (Korea Rural Community Corporation) 1^st vulnerability assessment methodology using RCP scenarios for 2021. However, there are limitations due to the necessity for climate impact assessments based on the latest climate information and the uncertainties associated with using a single scenario from national standard scenarios. Therefore, we applied the 13 GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs based on the newly introduced SSP scenarios. Furthermore, due to difficulties in data acquisiton, we reassessed potential impacts by redistributing weights for proxy variables. As a main result, with lower future potential impacts observed in areas with higher precipitation along the southern coast. Overall, the potential impacts increased for all reservoirs as we moved into the future, maintaining their relative rankings, yet showing no significant variability in the far future. Although the overall pattern of potential impacts aligns with previous evaluations, reevaluation under similar conditions with different spatial resolutions emphasizes the critical role of meteorological data spatial resolution in assessments. The results of this study are expected to improve the credibility and accuracy formulation of vulnerability employing more scientific predictions.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.284-301
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• 2023

The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation f or CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction f ield. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benef its of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in f uture climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. The f indings of this study on changes in rice productivity and uncertainties in temperature and solar radiation during the 21st century, based on climate change scenarios, hold value as f undamental information for climate change adaptation efforts.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

In an effort to establish adaptive measures for low carbon use and climate change, this study developed storylines for shared socio-economic reference pathways(SSP) and simulated change in land use for each storyline. First, cellular automata modeling was performed using past data, and a transition rule for the local characteristics of each planning area under study was derived by comparing with the results of the base year. Second, three storylines were formulated based on the hypothesized change in land use for the SSP. SSP1, the scenario for sustainability, assumed that the land was developed into a compact city, SSP2 assumed the development of a road through the middle of the land while maintaining the current situation, and SSP3 assumed unsustainable development into a fragmented world. Third, change in land use depending on planning area was predicted by integrating the SSP scenarios with cellular automata(CA) modeling. According to the results of analysis using the SSP scenarios, the urban area ratio increased slightly up to 2020 in SSP1 and up to 2030 in SSP2 and did not change any more subsequently, but it increased continuously until 2050 in SSP3 that assumed low level urban planning. These results on change in land use are expected to contribute towards making reasonable decisions and policies on climate change, and the outcomes of simulation derived from spatial downscaling, if applied to vulnerability assessment, will be useful to set the priority of policies on climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.225-236
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• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.965-972
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• 2017

Assessment of vulnerability of water use to climate change include a variety of climate change scenarios. However, in most future vulnerability studies, only the climate change scenarios are used and not the future scenarios of social and economic indicators. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario and Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway (SSP) developed by IPCC to reflect the future. We selected indicators for estimating the vulnerability of water use, and indices were integrated with a multi-criteria decision making approach - Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The indicator data utilized national statistics and reports, social and economic scenarios, and simulated results from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which reflects climate change scenario. Finally, we derived the rankings of water use vulnerability for the short-term future (2020) and mid-term future (2050) within the Han River watershed. Generally, considering climate change alone and considering climate change plus social and economic changes showed a similar spatial distribution. In the future scenarios, the watershed rankings were similar, but showed differences with SSP scenario in some watersheds. Therefore, considering social and economic changes is expected to contribute to more effective responses to climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.35-43
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• 2023

Future runoff analysis is influenced by climate change scenarios and hydrologic model parameters, with uncertainties. In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff analysis according to the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario and hydrologic model parameters was analyzed. Among the SSP scenarios, the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used, and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used as the hydrologic model. For the parameters of the SWAT model, a total of 11 parameter were optimized to the observed runoff data using SWAT-CUP. Then, uncertainty analysis of future estimated runoff compared to the observed runoff was performed using jensen-shannon divergence (JS-D), which can calculate the difference in distribution. As a result, uncertainty of future runoff was analyzed to be larger in SSP5-8.5 than in SSP2-4.5, and larger in the far future (2061-2100) than in the near future (2021-2060). In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff using future climate data according to the parameters of the hydrologic model is as follows. Uncertainty was greatly analyzed when parameters used observed runoff data in years with low flow rates compared to average years. In addition, the uncertainty of future runoff estimation was analyzed to be greater for the parameters of the period in which the change in runoff compared to the average year was greater.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.89-89
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• 2023

인간 활동에 의해 발생한 전 지구적 기후변화는 다양한 분야에 영향을 미치고 있다. 특히, 군락을 기반으로 서식하는 동식물은 기후변화에 가장 취약하며, 대부분의 군락 위치가 북상하거나 멸종 위기에 처해있다. 2022년에 발표된 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 보고서는 섭씨 5도 이상 상승하면 생물군의 60%가 멸종될 것이라고 보고하였으며, 고위도와 고도로 이동하여 봄철 식물 성장이 과거보다 더욱 가속화 될 것으로 예측하였다. 따라서, 온실가스 농도에 따른 전 지구적 기후변화 분석은 다양한 분야에서 지속가능한 완화 및 적응 정책을 결정하는데 필요하다. 본 연구는 SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5를 이용하여 Koppen-Geiger의 기후대 분류에 따른 전 지구 규모(아시아, 유럽, 남아메리카, 북아메리카, 오세아니아, 아프리카)의 과거 및 미래 기후대에 대한 변화를 분석하였다. 과거 기간의 기후대를 추정하기 위해 25개 CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) GCM(General circulation model)의 월 단위 강수량과 표면 온도를 사용하였으며 6개의 기간으로 구분하여 기후대 변화를 비교하였다. 더 나아가, 미래 기후대를 예측하기 위해 SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5의 미래 기후변수를 사용하였으며, 전망 기간을 7개로 구분하여 전망 기간의 기후대를 변화를 비교하였다. 본 연구의 결과로는 온실가스 농도가 높은 시나리오에서는 북아메리카, 아시아, 유럽의 툰드라와 영구동토층이 가파르게 감소하였으며, 온대 기후 중 습한 아열대 기후대의 면적이 급속도로 증가하였다. 더 나아가, 남아메리카의 경우 대륙성 기후대가 지속적으로 감소하는 반면에 열대 우림 기후대는 증가한다. 오세아니아의 미래 기후대는 몬순의 영향을 받는 아열대 기후대가 증가하고 열대 우림은 증가할 것으로 예측하였다.