• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.7
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• pp.481-491
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• 2024

Recent droughts make hydroelectric power generation (HPG) decreasing. Due to climate change in the future, the frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase, which will increase uncertainty of HPG in multi-purpose dams. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of HPG according to climate change scenarios and analyze the effect of drought on the amount of HPG. This study analyzed the future HPG of the Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Regression equations for HPG were developed based on the observed data of power generation discharge and HPG in the past provided by My Water, and future HPGs were estimated according to the SSP scenarios. The effect of drought on the amount of HPG was investigated based on the drought severity calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the future SPIs were calculated using precipitation data based on four GCM models (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) provided through the environmental big data platform. Overall results show that climate change had significant effects on the amount of HPG. In the case of Soyanggang Dam, the amount of HPG decreased in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the CanESM model showed a 65% reduction in 2031, and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model showed a 54% reduction in 2029. In the case of Chungju Dam, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the average monthly HPG compared to the reference period showed a decreasing trend except for INM-CM4 model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.505-517
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• 2023

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

In an effort to establish adaptive measures for low carbon use and climate change, this study developed storylines for shared socio-economic reference pathways(SSP) and simulated change in land use for each storyline. First, cellular automata modeling was performed using past data, and a transition rule for the local characteristics of each planning area under study was derived by comparing with the results of the base year. Second, three storylines were formulated based on the hypothesized change in land use for the SSP. SSP1, the scenario for sustainability, assumed that the land was developed into a compact city, SSP2 assumed the development of a road through the middle of the land while maintaining the current situation, and SSP3 assumed unsustainable development into a fragmented world. Third, change in land use depending on planning area was predicted by integrating the SSP scenarios with cellular automata(CA) modeling. According to the results of analysis using the SSP scenarios, the urban area ratio increased slightly up to 2020 in SSP1 and up to 2030 in SSP2 and did not change any more subsequently, but it increased continuously until 2050 in SSP3 that assumed low level urban planning. These results on change in land use are expected to contribute towards making reasonable decisions and policies on climate change, and the outcomes of simulation derived from spatial downscaling, if applied to vulnerability assessment, will be useful to set the priority of policies on climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.225-236
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• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2024

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.376-386
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• 2023

Due to climate changes, landslide hazards in the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea) continuously increase. To establish the effective landslide mitigation strategies, such as erosion control works, landslide hazard estimation in the long-term perspective should be proceeded considering the influence of climate changes. In this study, we examined the change in landslide-damaged areas in South Korea responding to climate change scenarios using the multivariate regression method. Data on landslide-damaged areas and rainfall from 1981-2010 were used as a training dataset. Sev en indices were deriv ed from rainfall data as the model's input data, corresponding to rainfall indices provided from two SSP scenarios for South Korea: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Prior to the multivariate regression analysis, we conducted the VIF test and the dimension analysis of regression model using PCA. Based on the result of PCA, we developed a regression model for landslide damaged area estimation with two principal components, which cov ered about 93% of total v ariance. With climate change scenarios, we simulated landslide-damaged areas in 2030-2100 using the regression model. As a result, the landslide-damaged area will be enlarged more than the double of current annual mean landslide damaged area of 1981-2010; It infers that landslide mitigation strategies should be reinforced considering the future climate condition.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.85-95
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• 2020

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods' volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 ㎥/s (15%) and 523 ㎥/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 ㎥/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 ㎥/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 ㎥/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 ㎥/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.

• Water for future
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• v.56 no.6
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• pp.62-74
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• 2023

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.567-578
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• 2022

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year(2000-2019), near future(2041-2060), and distant future(2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future(2081-2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.773-784
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• 2023

In this study, a comparative analysis between an electric heat pump cooling system and a hybrid desiccant cooling system is conducted. Desiccant cooling is a thermal driven system with potentially lower electric power consumption than electric heat pump. Hybrid desiccant cooling system simulation includes components such as a desiccant rotor, direct and indirect evaporative coolers, heat exchangers, fans, and a heat pump system. Using dynamic simulations by climate conditions, house cooling temperatures and power consumption for both systems are analyzed for 16 days period in the summer season under climate scenarios for the year 2100 prediction. The results reveal that the hybrid desiccant cooling system exhibits a 5-18% reduction in electric consumption compared to the heat pump system.