• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.507-510
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• 2003

The development of a basin-wide runoff analysis model is to analysis monthly and daily hydrologic runoff components including surface runoff, subsurface runoff, return flow, etc. at key operation station in the targeted basin. A short-term water demand forecasting technology will be developed taking into account the patterns of municipal, industrial and agricultural water uses. For the development and utilization of runoff analysis model, relevant basin information including historical precipitation and river water stage data, geophysical basin characteristics, and water intake and consumptions needs to be collected and stored into the hydrologic database of Integrated Real-time Water Information System. The well-known SSARR model was selected for the basis of continuous daily runoff model for forecasting short and long-term natural flows.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.312-317
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• 2006

지역규모의 기후변화 모의결과를 이용하여 금강유역 용담댐의 홍수기 치수안전도에 대한 민감도분석을 수행하였다. 기후변화 모의에 사용된 SNURCM(Seoul National University Regional Climate Model)은 미국 National Center for Atmospheric Research의 Community Climate System Model의 전지구모형을 기반으로 spectral nudging 기법을 사용한 공간해상도 30 km, 연직 21층의 지역기후모형이다. 기후변화 시나리오로는 SRES 'B1'이 사용되었으며 과거 control run에 대한 기후모의 정확도 분석을 통하여 SNURCM 기상자료를 관측치와 비교한 결과 면적강우량을 다소 과소추정하였고 이점을 감안하여 SNURCM의 일 모의결과에 보정 계수를 적용하였다. 하천유출량은 SSARR 모형을 이용하여 SNURCM 모의가 수행된 전체기간을 $1980{\sim}1999$년과 $2000{\sim}2019$년으로 20년씩 나누어 용담댐 일 유입량을 산정하여 통계분석을 실시하였고 과거와 미래 20년 동안을 비교하여 본 결과 (1) 유량의 평균보다는 분산이 미래 20년 동안 증가하여 가뭄과 홍수에 대한 위험도가 증가함을 알 수 있었고, (2) 특히 연최대유량 또한 미래 20년 동안 상당히 증가하여 홍수기 치수대책이 더욱 중요해질 것으로 판단되었다. 마지막으로 용담댐 운영은 범용 시스템분석 도구인 STELLA(System Thinking Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) 상에서 GUI로 구현하여 유입량 변화에 따른 용담댐 치수안전도 변화를 모의해 보았다. 용담댐의 홍수기 운영은 저수지 수위가 제한수위를 초과하기 시작하면 Rigid ROM 발효하여 방류량을 결정하도록 구성하였고, 무효방류(spill)가 일어나는 현상을 실패로 가정하여 이에 대한 신뢰도(reliability), 회복도(resiliency), 그리고 심도(vulnerability)를 치수안전도 지표로 계산하였다. 전체기간을 1980년${\sim}$1999년, 2000년${\sim}$2019년, 2000년${\sim}$2009년, 그리고 2010년${\sim}$2019년까지 총 4구간으로 나누어 결과를 도출하였으며 예상한 바와 같이 후반기 20년 동안에 세 가지 지표가 취약해 지는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 특히 2000년부터 2009년까지 10년 동안에는 더욱 취약해짐을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.2 s.175
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• pp.147-158
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• 2007

This study attempted to determine a suitable hydrologic model for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, and to assess the accuracy of streamflow scenarios simulated by the selected hydrologic model using the meteorological scenarios of the Seoul National University Regional Climate Model(SNURCM). Comparison of four water balance models and two daily conceptual rainfall-runoff models for the simulation capability of the Daecheong Dam inflow indicated that the abcd model performs the best among the tested water balance models and performs as well as SSARR that is popular as a daily rainfall-runoff model in Korea. Parameters of the abcd model were then estimated for 12 ungauged subbasins of the Geum River by the regionalization method. The model parameters were first calibrated at nine multi-purpose dams and were then regionalized using catchment characteristics for another four multi-purpose dams, which were assumed to be ungauged sites. The model efficiency(ME) coefficients of the simulated inflows for these four dams were at least 87%. The MEs of the hindcasted meteorological rainfall scenarios of the 12 subbasins of the Geum River were more than 60%. Moreover, the ME of the Daecheong Dam inflow simulated by the abcd model using the SNURCM rainfall scenarios was more than 80%. Therefore, this research concluded that the abcd model coupled with the SNU-RCM meteorological scenarios can be used for impact assessment studies of climate change on water resources.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.90-97
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• 2019

In recent years, flood due to the consecutive storm events have been occurred and property damage and casualties are in increasing trend. This study calls the consecutively occurred storm events as a mega rainfall scenario and the discharge by the scenario is defined as a mega flood discharge. A mega rainfall scenario was created on the assumption that 100-year frequency rainfall events were consecutively occurred in the Gyeongancheon stream basin. The SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model was used to estimate the mega flood discharge using the scenario in the basin. In addition, in order to perform more reasonable runoff analysis, the parameters were estimated using the SCE_UA algorithm. Also, the calibration and verification were performed using the objective functions of the weighted sum of squared of residual(WSSR), which is advantageous for the peak discharge simulation and sum of squared of residual(SSR). As a result, the mega flood discharge due to the continuous occurrence of 100-year frequency rainfall events in the Gyeongan Stream Basin was estimated to be 4,802㎥/s, and the flood discharge due to the 100-year frequency single rainfall event estimated by "the Master Plan for the Gyeongancheon Stream Improvement" (2011) was 3,810㎥/s. Therefore, the mega flood discharge was found to increase about 992㎥/s more than the single flood event. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan of the Gyeongan Stream basin.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.359-366
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• 2012

Accurate predictions about the water quality of a river have great importance in identifying in-stream flow and water supply requirements and solving relevant environmental problems. In this study, the effect of water release from upstream dam on the downstream water quality has been investigated by applying a hydological model combined with QUAL2E to Geum River basin. The ESP (Ensemble Stream Prediction) method, which has been validated and verified by lots of researchers, was used to predict reservoir and tributary inflow. The input parameters for a combined model to predict both hydrological characteristics and water quality were identified and optimized. In order to verify the model performance, the simulated result at Gongju station, located at the downstream from Daecheong Dam, has been compared with measured data in 2008. As a result, it was found that the proposed model simulates well the values of BOD, T-N, and T-P with an acceptable reliability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.278-283
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• 2005

In this study, following works have been carried out : division of Nakdong River Basin into 25 sub basins, development of a technique to evaluate spatial distribution of rainfall and analysis of rainfall data of 169 stations, selection of control points, and selection of a hydrologic model(SSARR). Analysis results were found that total volume of discharges at every control points have errors in a reasonable range, and the correlations between observed and calculated daily runoff discharges at every control points were well coincided.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.183-189
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• 2010

In this study long term rainfall-runoff model, developed based on SSARR, was applied to Geum river basin and its simulation results of major control points were compared with the corresponding observed channel discharges. The validities of the simulation results were examined with re-measured discharges of those control points. From the above procedure the points showing the unreliable results were found out and its principal causes are analyzed through hydrological inspection of runoff characteristics of their circumstances. Finally the simulation results were modified by the consideration of the effects by small-scale hydraulic structures which could directly affect the channel discharges. As a result the annual runoff simulations of two major points in Geum river basin, Yongdam and Daecheong dam sites, work well. However the low flow simulation of the point located between them, Sutong station, showed more or less the unreliable result. Its causes are considered by means of the hydraulic/hydrological inspection of the corresponding point.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.140-151
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• 2007

In this study, we attempted to develop a watershed runoff index subject to main control points by dividing the Geum River basin into 14 sub-basins. The Yongdam multipurpose dam Daecheong multipurpose dam and Gongju gage station were selected to serve as the main control points of the Geum River basin, and the observed flow of each control point was calculated by the discharge rating curve, whereas the simulated flow was estimated using the Rainfall Runoff Forecasting System (RRFS), user-interfaced software developed by the Korea Water Corporation, based on the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. This study consisted of the daily unit observed flow and the simulated flow of the accumulated moving average flow by daily, 5-days, 10-days, monthly, quarterly and annually, and normal monthly/annually flow. We also performed flow duration analysis for each of the accumulated moving average and the normal monthly/annually flows by unit period, and abundant flow, ordinary flow, low flow and drought flow estimated by each flow duration analysis were utilized as watershed runoff index by main control points. Further, as we determined the current flow by unit period and the normal monthly/annually flow through the drought and flood flow analysis subject to each flow we were able to develop the watershed runoff index in a system that can be used to determine the abundance and scarcity of the flow at the corresponding point.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.527-534
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• 2007

To operate scientifical and integrated management of water resources, it needs to identify clearly the quantitative variation and moving pathway of water resources in a basin. Moreover, it needs to also estimate more precisely the amount of runoff generating from the precipitation. Thus, in this study, to carry out more reliable hydrologic analyses, the runoff characteristics according to detailed runoff components and water balance in a basin are analyzed. As a result of yearly water balance analyses, during the period of drought year, the loss is bigger than that of 6-year mean loss and the return flow of groundwater is the most dominant component of runoff. During the period of flood year, the loss is smaller about 4% than that of 6-year mean loss and the subsurface water is the most dominant component of runoff. The loss due to the interception and evapotranspiration for 6-year mean loss is about 53% of the total rainfall, the mean runoff ratio is about 27% and the baseflow is about 22%.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.135-135
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• 2017

최근 강우-유출 모형은 물리적 현상에 근거한 확정론적 모의 모형과 물리적 성분으로 설명할 수 없는 내용에 대해 통계적으로 접근하는 추계학적 모의 모형 등이 계속 연구되고 있어 자연현상에 가까운 결과를 기대할 수 있게 되었다. 하지만 우리나라의 경우 많은 연구에도 불구하고 돌발성 집중호우, 여름철 집중되는 강우 등으로 인해 재난이 반복적으로 발생하고 있어 모형의 정확성에 대한 논의가 지속되고 있다. 동일한 유역에 동일한 입력자료를 사용하더라도 사용하는 모형에 따라 유출 분석결과는 상이하며 이는 유출 해석에 대한 불확실성으로 작용한다. 본 연구에서는 앙상블 및 블랜딩 기법을 사용하여 각 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려하여 최적 유출량을 산정하고자 한다. 대상 유역으로는 한강 수계에 있는 중랑천 유역을 선정하였으며, Distributed 모형인 Vflo 모형과 Lumped 모형인 저류함수 모형, SSARR모형, TANK 모형을 이용하여 유출 분석을 실시하였다. 그 후, Multi-Model Super Ensemble(MMSE), Simple Model Average(SMA), Mean Square Error(MSE) 방법 등의 blending 기법을 이용하여 하나의 통합된 형태의 유출 분석 결과를 제시하였으며, 최적 유출량 산정을 위한 blending 기법을 선정하였다. 본 연구를 통해 동일한 강우 시나리오에 대한 여러 강우-유출 모형에 대한 정확도를 확인하였으며, 앙상블 및 블랜딩 기법을 사용하여 유출 분석에 대한 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.