• Title/Summary/Keyword: SPI index

Search Result 260, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Development of groundwater level monitoring and forecasting technique for drought early warning (가뭄 예·경보를 위한 지하수위 모니터링 및 예측기법 개발)

  • Lee, Jeongju;Kim, Taeho;Chun, Genil;Kim, Hyeonsik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.13-13
    • /
    • 2020
  • '20년 3월 현재 전국 3,502개 읍면동 중 73개 읍면동이 지하수를 상수원으로 급수 중이며, 48개 산업단지에서 지하수를 주 수원으로 사용 중이다. 또한 급수 소외지역의 물 공급을 위해 주로 사용되는 소규모수도시설 14,811개 중 12,073개(81.5%)는 지하수를 이용하고 있으며, 그 위치는 전국에 산재해 있다. 이처럼 지하수는 댐, 저수지 및 하천과 더불어 생·공용수의 중요한 수원이라 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 급수 소외지역의 주요 수원인 지하수위 현황을 이용한 가뭄 모니터링 및 전망 기법을 개발하고자 하였다. 국가 지하수관측망 중 10년 이상 장기 관측 자료를 보유한 253개 관측소의 일단위 관측자료를 기반으로, 과거 관측수위 분포를 핵밀도함수로 추정하고 Quantile Function을 이용해 현재 수위의 높고 낮은 정도를 Percentile 값으로 산정하였다. 관측소별 지하수위 Percentile은 티센망을 이용해 167개 시군별로 공간평균하고 Percentile의 범위에 따른 가뭄등급을 설정하여 지하수 가뭄 정도를 모니터링 할 수 있는 기법을 제시하였다. 또한 지하수 가뭄을 전망하기 위해 강수와 지하수위의 거시적인 응답특성을 이용하였다. 관측소별로 추정된 핵밀도함수의 누적확률을 표준정규분포의 Quantile로 변환하여 표준지하수지수I(Standardized Groundwater level Index, SGI)를 산정하고, 시군별로 공간을 일치시킨 1~12개월 지속기간별 표준강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)와의 상관관계를 이용해 NARX(nonlinear autoregressive exogenous) 인공신경망 예측모형을 구축하였다. 이를 통해 기상청 정량전망 강수량을 이용해 전국의 1~3개월 후 지하수 가뭄을 빠르게 전망할 수 있는 체계를 구축하고, 생·공용수 분야 국가 가뭄 예·경보의 미급수지역 가뭄현황 및 전망에 활용중이다.

  • PDF

Spatiotemporal Agricultural Drought Damage and Its Relationship with Hydrometeorological Characteristics of Historical Drought Events for Recent 40 Years (최근 40년간 가뭄사상의 수문기상학적 특성 및 시공간적 변화와 농업가뭄피해)

  • Woo, Seung-Beom;Nam, Won-Ho;Kim, Taegon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.392-392
    • /
    • 2020
  • 최근 기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 규모 및 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있으며, 1994-1995년, 2000-2001년 전국적으로 발생했던 가뭄 상황과 달리 2010년 이후의 가뭄은 지역별로 편중되어 내리는 강수때문에 국소적으로 발생하고 있다. 특히, 2011년부터 2018년까지 연속적으로 국지적인 가뭄이 발생하였고, 2017년에는 경기, 충남, 전남지역을 중심으로 극심한 가뭄이 발생하였다. 우리나라의 경우 강수부족으로 기상, 수문학적 가뭄이 발생한다고 하더라도 농업용 수리시설물에 의한 농업용수 공급이 가능하고, 양수장, 관정 등 농업용수 공급의 형태가 다양하기 때문에 실제로 농업현장에서 체감하는 농업가뭄피해는 시공간적으로 상이하다. 따라서, 강수 부족으로 인한 가뭄사상의 발생에 따른 수문기상학적 특성 및 시공간적인 분포 특성과 농업가뭄피해의 발생 현황, 농업용 저수지의 저수율 변화 및 농업용수 이용과의 관계는 향후 농업가뭄의 지역별 가뭄대책 수립에 중요한 기초자료로 활용할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 농업가뭄에 대하여 정량적인 가뭄피해를 분석하기 위하여 지역별 가뭄발생면적 및 쌀 생산량과 가뭄사상의 수문기상학적 특성간의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 최근 40년간 강수량, 표준강수지수 (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI), 표준강수증발산지수(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) 등의 가뭄지표인자와 쌀 생산량, 농업용 저수지 저수율 자료 등 관련 인자들을 수집하여, 농업가뭄발생 및 피해면적과의 정량적인 상관관계를 분석하고자 한다.

  • PDF

A study on the characteristics of cyanobacteria in the mainstream of Nakdong river using decision trees (의사결정나무를 이용한 낙동강 본류 구간의 남조류 발생특성 연구)

  • Jung, Woo Suk;Jo, Bu Geon;Kim, Young Do;Kim, Sung Eun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.312-320
    • /
    • 2019
  • The occurrence of cyanobacteria causes problems such as oxygen depletion and increase of organic matter in the water body due to mass prosperity and death. Each year, Algae bloom warning System is issued due to the effects of summer heat and drought. It is necessary to quantitatively characterize the occurrence of cyanobacteria for proactive green algae management in the main Nakdong river. In this study, we analyzed the major influencing factors on cyanobacteria bloom using visualization and correlation analysis. A decision tree, a machine learning method, was used to quantitatively analyze the conditions of cyanobacteria according to the influence factors. In all the weirs, meteorological factors, temperature and SPI drought index, were significantly correlated with cyanobacterial cell number. Increasing the number of days of heat wave and drought block the mixing of water in the water body and the stratification phenomenon to promote the development of cyanobacteria. In the long term, it is necessary to proactively manage cyanobacteria considering the meteorological impacts.

Meteorological drought outlook with satellite precipitation data using Bayesian networks and decision-making model (베이지안 네트워크 및 의사결정 모형을 이용한 위성 강수자료 기반 기상학적 가뭄 전망)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Kim, Ji-Eun;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.52 no.4
    • /
    • pp.279-289
    • /
    • 2019
  • Unlike other natural disasters, drought is a reoccurring and region-wide phenomenon after being triggered by a prolonged precipitation deficiency. Considering that remote sensing products provide consistent temporal and spatial measurements of precipitation, this study developed a remote sensing data-based drought outlook model. The meteorological drought was defined by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) achieved from PERSIANN_CDR, TRMM 3B42 and GPM IMERG images. Bayesian networks were employed in this study to combine the historical drought information and dynamical prediction products in advance of drought outlook. Drought outlook was determined through a decision-making model considering the current drought condition and forecasted condition from the Bayesian networks. Drought outlook condition was classified by four states such as no drought, drought occurrence, drought persistence, and drought removal. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis were employed to measure the relative outlook performance with the dynamical prediction production, Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). The ROC analysis indicated that the proposed outlook model showed better performance than the MME, especially for drought occurrence and persistence of 2- and 3-month outlook.

Sound Engine for Korean Traditional Instruments Using General Purpose Digital Signal Processor (범용 디지털 신호처리기를 이용한 국악기 사운드 엔진 개발)

  • Kang, Myeong-Su;Cho, Sang-Jin;Kwon, Sun-Deok;Chong, Ui-Pil
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.229-238
    • /
    • 2009
  • This paper describes a sound engine of Korean traditional instruments, which are the Gayageum and Taepyeongso, by using a TMS320F2812. The Gayageum and Taepyeongso models based on commuted waveguide synthesis (CWS) are required to synthesize each sound. There is an instrument selection button to choose one of instruments in the proposed sound engine, and thus a corresponding sound is produced by the relative model at every certain time. Every synthesized sound sample is transmitted to a DAC (TLV5638) using SPI communication, and it is played through a speaker via an audio interface. The length of the delay line determines a fundamental frequency of a desired sound. In order to determine the length of the delay line, it is needed that the time for synthesizing a sound sample should be checked by using a GPIO. It takes $28.6{\mu}s$ for the Gayageum and $21{\mu}s$ for the Taepyeongso, respectively. It happens that each sound sample is synthesized and transferred to the DAC in an interrupt service routine (ISR) of the proposed sound engine. A timer of the TMS320F2812 has four events for generating interrupts. In this paper, the interrupt is happened by using the period matching event of it, and the ISR is called whenever the interrupt happens, $60{\mu}s$. Compared to original sounds with their spectra, the results are good enough to represent timbres of instruments except 'Mu, Hwang, Tae, Joong' of the Taepyeongso. Moreover, only one sound is produced when playing the Taepyeongso and it takes $21{\mu}s$ for the real-time playing. In the case of the Gayageum, players usually use their two fingers (thumb and middle finger or thumb and index finger), so it takes $57.2{\mu}s$ for the real-time playing.

ROC Analysis of Topographic Factors in Flood Vulnerable Area considering Surface Runoff Characteristics (지표 유출 특성을 고려한 홍수취약지역 지형학적 인자의 ROC 분석)

  • Lee, Jae Yeong;Kim, Ji-Sung
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.327-335
    • /
    • 2020
  • The method of selecting an existing flood hazard area via a numerical model requires considerable time and effort. In this regard, this study proposes a method for selecting flood vulnerable areas through topographic analysis based on a surface runoff mechanism to reduce the time and effort required. Flood vulnerable areas based on runoff mechanisms refer to those areas that are advantageous in terms of the flow accumulation characteristics of rainfall-runoff water at the surface, and they generally include lowlands, mild slopes, and rivers. For the analysis, a digital topographic map of the target area (Seoul) was employed. In addition, in the topographic analysis, eight topographic factors were considered, namely, the elevation, slope, profile and plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index, and the distances from rivers and manholes. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted between the topographic factors and actual inundation trace data. The results revealed that four topographic factors, namely, elevation, slope, TWI, and distance from manholes, explained the flooded area well. Thus, when a flood vulnerable area is selected, the prioritization method for various factors as proposed in this study can simplify the topographical analytical factors that contribute to flooding.

Analysis of Voice and Swallowing Symptoms after Thyroidectomy in Patients without Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Injury in Early Postoperative Period (반회후두신경 손상을 동반하지 않은 갑상선 절제술 환자에서 수술 초기의 음성 및 연하 기능의 변화에 대한 분석)

  • Kim, Heejin;Keum, Bo-Ram;Kim, Geun Hee;Jeon, Seung Sik;Kim, Hyejeen;Kim, Sung Kyun;Hong, Seok Jin;Hong, Seok-Min;Kim, Yong-Bok;Park, Il-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.108-113
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background and Objectives : After thyroidectomy, many patients experience problems report such things as reduced voice range and vocal fatigue, swallowing problems without superior and recurrent laryngeal nerve injury. The purpose of this study was to evaluate voice and swallowing problems before and after thyroid surgery without laryngeal nerve injury. Materials and Methods : Ninety-three patients who underwent thyroidectomy without laryngeal nerve injury and completed the follow-up evaluations were studied between June 2013 and December 2015. Each evaluation was performed preoperatively, as well as 1 week, 1 month postoperatively. Analysis was performed including voice handicap index (VHI), dysphagia handicap index (DHI), and acoustic voice analysis. Results : Patients show significant variation of parameters in the fundamental frequency (F), maximal phonation time (MPT), shimmer, jitter and soft phonation index (SPI) early after operation, and most of them showed recovery of parameters after 1month of operation. Perceptive complaint of voice and swallowing also showed significant decreased after operation (p<0.005). After 1month of operation, MPT, highest frequency and frequency ranges still showed significant decreased parameters. Comparing acoustic and perceptive parameters of total thyroidectomy and lobectomy, there was no significant changes between them except highest frequency (p=0.042). Conclusion : The results from both subjective and objective evaluations show voice and swallowing disturbance after thyroidectomy even in the absence of laryngeal nerve and provide patients information about the recovery process after surgery. Highest frequency parameter showed most significant changes after operation.

  • PDF

A Study of the Best Performance Index for Estimate at Completion Forecasting Model on the Earned Value Management System(EVMS) (EVMS 최종공사비 예측 모델 최적성과지수에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim Seon-Gyoo;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.1 no.3 s.3
    • /
    • pp.101-107
    • /
    • 2000
  • On 1 July, 2000, the Ministry of Construction and Transportation announced the Earned Value Management System(EVMS) will be applied in public sector soon. However the arguments over the EVMS applied to our unique construction environment still exist and create strong concerns and worries among some experts it would be another mistakes proposed by the government. We do know the EVMS comes from C/SCSC which was first released by the United States Department of Defense in December 1967, and proved very powerful and efficient project management tool from a lot of practices. Although it is an excellent tool, we can not ignore our many experienced failures appling foreign system due to the differences of construction culture and law between the Korean and US construction industries. The purpose of the EVMS's success in Korea, therefore, this paper tests and proves the EVMS's adaptability and credibility to our construction environment by EAC model, that is one of the most important functions in the EVMS, using very scare EV data of the Korean construction projects.

  • PDF

Development of Neck-Type Electrolarynx Blueton and Acoustic Characteristic Analysis (경부형 전기인공후두 Blueton의 개발과 음향학적 성능 분석)

  • Choi, Seong-Hee;Park, Young-Jae;Park, Young-Kwan;Kim, Tae-Jung;Nam, Do-Hyun;Lim, Sung-Eun;Lee, Sung-Eun;Kim, Han-Soo;Choi, Hong-Shik;Kim, Kwang-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-42
    • /
    • 2004
  • Electrolarynx(EL), battery operated vibrators which are held against the neck by on-off button, has been widely used as a verbal communication method among post-laryngectomized patients. EL speech can produce easily without need of any additional surgery or special training and be used with any other methods. This institute developed a neck-typed EL named "Blueton" in commperation with EL Company Linkus, which consists of 3 parts : Vibrator part, Control part, Battery part. In this study we evaluated the acoustic characteristics of the produced voices by Blueton compared with Servox-inton using MDVP. Three EL users (2 full time users, 1 part time user) were participated. The results revelaed that NHR higher in Servox than Blueton and intensity is higher in Blueton than Servox. The spectra for vowels produced by EL speakers are mixed signals combined with talkers' vocal output and electrolarynx noise. The spectra pattern is similar with two ELs. High, SPI index and vowel spectra from MDVP demonstrated characteristics of both electrolarynxes related to noise signal. This finding suggests that Blueton helps to provide one of useful rehabilitation options in the post laryngectomy patients.

  • PDF

The Relationship Between Temperature and Spring Phytophenological Index (기온과 봄 식물계절지수와의 관계)

  • Chang, Jeong-Gul;Yu, Sung-Tae;Kim, Byung-Do;Park, Hyeon-Ho;Baek, Jin-Yeong;Kwon, Hye-Yeon;Yi, Myung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
    • /
    • 2019.04a
    • /
    • pp.38-38
    • /
    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 봄 식물계절지수와 기온지표와의 관계를 알아보기 위해 지난 9년간(2010년-2018년) 대구수목원, 팔공산, 주왕산, 가야산에 공통적으로 생육하는 소나무(Pinus densiflora), 일본잎갈나무(Larix kaempferi), 신갈나무(Quercus mongolica), 진달래(Rhododendron mucronulatum), 생강나무(Lindera obtusiloba), 당단풍나무(Acer pseudosieboldianum) 6종을 대상으로 발아, 개화, 개엽의 봄 식물계절시기의 변화 경향과 기온간의 관계를 파악하였다. 기온의 변화는 9년동안 2월보다 3~4월의 월평균기온이 증가하였으며, 지역별로 수목원과 팔공산의 평균기온이 높았다. 발아, 개화, 개엽은 수종별로 생강나무가 가장 빠르며 소나무가 가장 느렸고, 지역별로 수목원에서 가장 빨리 식물계절시기가 도래하였다. 봄 식물계절시기는 -1.267~-6.151일/9년 정도 앞당겨지고 있는 경향을 보이는데 소나무(-6.151일/9년)가 가장 크며, 진달래(-1.267일/9년)의 변화율이 가장 낮았다. 발아, 개화, 개엽에서 모두 유의한 값을 보이는 수종은 진달래와 소나무로서 이들은 1월~3월 평균기온과 상관관계를 보였다. 봄 식물계절지수(SPI)의 시계열 변화를 확인한 결과 4개 지역의 변화율이 모두 음의 값으로 식물계절 시기가 모두 빨라지고 있었다. 그 중 수목원, 팔공산 및 가야산과 같은 내륙지역일수록 변화율이 컸으며, 다소 거리가 떨어진 주왕산의 경우 변화율이 조금 낮게 나타났다.

  • PDF