• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 1991년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.57-62
• /
• 1991

For the purpose of developing the method for efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structure such as ship structure, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis needed in the reliability-based design is performed. The reliability analysis is carried out for the initial yielding failure, in which the derivative derived in the deterministic desin sensitivity is used. The present PFEM-based reliability method shows good agreement with Monte Carlo method in terms with the variance of response and the associated probability of failure even at the first or first few iteration steps. The probabilistic design sensitivity analysis evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the reliability index variation can be easily predicted by the variation of the mean and the variance of the random variables.

• Advances in concrete construction
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.149-159
• /
• 2020

The present work proposes new engineering models for determining corrosion initiation time in concrete reinforcing steels in marine environment. The models are based on Fick's second law that is commonly used for chloride diffusion. The latter is based on deterministic analyses involving the most influencing parameters such as distance of the concrete structure from the seaside, depth of steel concrete cover, ambient temperature, relative humidity and the water-cement ratio. However, a realistic corrosion initiation time cannot be estimated because of the uncertainties associated to the different parameters of the models. Therefore a reliability approach using FORM/SORM method has been applied to develop the proposed engineering models integrating a limit state function and a reliability index β. As a result, the corrosion initiation time is expressed by new exponential engineering models where the uncertainties are associated to the model parameters. The main emerging result is a realistic decision tool for corrosion planning inspection.

• 한국전산유체공학회지
• /
• 제11권1호
• /
• pp.21-28
• /
• 2006

Reliability Based Design Optimization(RBDO) is one of the optimization methods that minimize the product failure due to small changes of operating conditions or process errors. It searches the optimum that satisfies the safety margin of each constraint, and it gives stable and reliable designs. However, RBDO requires many times oj computational efforts compared with the conventional deterministic optimization(DO) to evaluate the probability of failure about each constraint, therefore it is hard to apply directly to large-scaled problems such as a flexible wing shape design optimization. For the efficient reliability analysis, the approximate reliability analysis method with the two-point approximation(TPA) is proposed In this study, the lift-to-drag ratio maximization designs are performed with 3-dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis and NASTRAN structural analysis, and the optimization results about the deterministic, FORM and SORM are compared.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제41권5호
• /
• pp.575-589
• /
• 2012

This paper presents a reliability analysis of steel I-beams with rectangular web openings, based on a combination of the common probabilistic reliability methods, such as RSM, FORM and SORM and using data obtained from experimental tests performed at the Istanbul Technical University. A procedure is proposed to obtain the optimum design load that can be applied to this type of structural members, by taking into account specified target values of reliability indices for ultimate and serviceability limit states. The goal of the paper is to present an algorithm to obtain more realistic and economical design of beams and to demonstrate that it can be applied efficiently to steel I-beams with web openings. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed allowing to ranking the random variables according to their importance in the reliability analysis.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지반공학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.988-997
• /
• 2006

In this paper, a reliability-groundwater flow program is developed by coupling the 3-D finite element numerical groundwater flow program with first and second order reliability program. The numerical groundwater program developed called DGU-FLOW is verified by solving the examples of groundwater flow through the underground excavation and comparing the results with those of commercial MODFLOW 3D programs. Reliability routine of the program is also verified by comparing the probability of failure of the flow model from FORM/SORM with that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. The difference of out-flux and total head calculated near the bottom of the excavation using the deterministic 3D groundwater flow and the commercial programs was negligible. The reliability analysis of the groundwater flow showed that the probability of failure from the first and second order reliability method are quite close that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. Therefore, the developed program is considered effective for analyzing the groundwater flow with uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity of the soils.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
• /
• 제26권5호
• /
• pp.343-350
• /
• 2016

Remaining lifetime prediction of the underground gas pipeline plays a key role in maintenance planning and public safety. One of main causes in the pipeline failure is metal corrosion. This paper deals with estimating the pipeline reliability in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline has uncertainty and variability in its operation, probabilistic approximation approaches such as first order second moment (FOSM), first order reliability method (FORM), second order reliability method (SORM), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are widely employed for pipeline reliability predictions. This paper presents a fuzzy inference based reliability method (FIRM). Compared with existing methods, a distinction of our method is to incorporate a fuzzy inference into quantifying degrees of variability in corrosion defects. As metal corrosion depends on the service environment, this feature makes it easier to obtain practical predictions. Numerical experiments are conducted by using a field dataset. The result indicates that the proposed method works well and, in particular, it provides more advisory estimations of the remaining lifetime of the gas pipeline.

• 한국생산제조학회지
• /
• 제22권3_1spc호
• /
• pp.518-524
• /
• 2013

Recently, probabilistic assessments of nuclear power plant components have generated interest in the nuclear industries, either for the efficient inspection and maintenance of older nuclear plants or for improving the safety and cost-effective design of newly constructed nuclear plants. In the present paper, the partial safety factor (PSF) of wall-thinned nuclear piping is evaluated based on a reliability index method, from which the effect of each statistical variable (assessment parameter) on a certain target probability is evaluated. In order to calculate the PSF of a wall-thinned pipe, a limit state function based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) concept is first constructed. As for the reliability assessment method, both the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method and second-order reliability method (SORM) are employed to determine the PSF of each probabilistic variable. The present results can be used for developing maintenance strategies considering the priorities of input variables for structural integrity assessments of wall-thinned piping, and this PSF concept can also be applied to the optimal design of the components of newly constructed plants considering the target reliability levels.