• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.430-438
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• 2017

This study presents the reliability-based flaw assessment for the crack in the mooring chain of a floating type offshore structure. BSI(British Standard Institution) flaw assessment procedure BS7910 was combined with first- and second-order reliability method (FORM, SORM) so that the acceptance of a given flaw can be assessed considering the uncertainties of parameters that play important role in the flaw assessment. Considering the probabilistic nature of the crack size and long-term distribution of the stresses acting on the crack in mooring chain, the failure probability was calculated using FORM and SORM. To check the validity of the FORM and SORM, Monte Carlo simulation was also carried out to derive the true limit state function and compared with the results of FORM and SORM.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2005년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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• pp.99-104
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• 2005

For the efficient reliability analysis, Bi-direction two-point approximation(BTPA) method is developed which solves shortcomings of conventional two-point approximation(TPA) methods that generate an approximate surface with low accuracy or sometimes do an unstable approximate surface. The conventional reliability based design optimization(RBDO) methods require high computational cost compared with the deterministic design optimization(DO) methods. To overcome the computational inefficiency of RBDO, the approximate reliability analysis approaches on the TPA surface are proposed. Using these FORM and SORM analysis strategies, multi-point aerodynamic-structure interacted shape design optimizations with uncertainty are performed very efficiently.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제32권9호
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• pp.740-753
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• 2008

The conventional Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (C-SHPB) technique with aluminum pressure bars to achieve a closer impedance match between the pressure bars and the specimen materials such as hot temperature degraded POM (Poly Oxy Methylene) and PP (Poly Propylene) to obtain more distinguishable experimental signals is used to obtain a dynamic behavior of material deformation under a high strain rate loading condition. An experimental modification with Pulse shaper is introduced to reduce the nonequilibrium on the dynamic material response during a short test period to increase the rise time of the incident pulse for two polymeric materials. For the dynamic stress strain curve obtained from SHPB experiment under high strain rate, the Johnson-Cook model is applied as a constitutive equation, and we verify the applicability of this constitutive equation to the probabilistic reliability estimation method. The methodology to estimate the reliability using the probabilistic method such as the FORM and the SORM has been proposed, after compose the limit state function using Johnson-Cook model. It is found that the failure probability estimated by using the SORM is more reliable than those of the FORM, and the failure probability increases with the increase of applied stress. Moreover, it is noted that the parameters of Johnson-Cook model such as A and n, and applied stress affect the failure probability more than the other random variables according to the sensitivity analysis.

• 충청수학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.573-583
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• 2008

In this paper, we introduce the techniques of estimating the probability of failure in reliability analysis. The basic idea of each technique is explained and drawbacks of these techniques are examined.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.96-110
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• 1996

노후선박은 부식, 피로균열 등의 구조손상을 입고 있으며, 구조손상이 심각하면 중대한 해난사고를 초래할 위험성이 높다. 선각붕괴에 의한 선박의 침몰사고를 미연에 방지하기 위하여는 구조손상에 기인된 각종 불확실성을 고려한 노후선박의 최종강도 신뢰성을 평가할 필요가 있다. 본 논문에서는 부식에 의한 선체구조부재의 판두께 감소효과를 고려하여 선체구조의 최종강도를 기준으로한 신뢰성 평가기법을 제시하였다. 이를 위해 선체구조의 부식 속도모델을 선급에서 제시하는 데이타를 바탕으로 설정하고, 부식효과를 고려한 신뢰성 한계상태방정식을 도출하였으며, 최종강도 신뢰성은 SORM (second-order reliability method)을 적용하여 계산하였다. 본 기법을 이중선체 유조선에 적용하여 선령의 증가에 따른 단면계수 및 최종강도 신뢰성의 감소특성을 고찰하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.217-227
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• 1992

본 논문에서는 일계(一階) 및 이계(二階) 신뢰해석법(信賴解析法)을 이용 흙속으로의 오염물 이동을 해석할 수 있는 모델을 개발하였으며 오염이동 모델은 1차원 차분법과 2차원 유한요소법을 이용하였다. 일계(一階) 및 이계(二階) 신뢰성 해석법은 흙의 특성을 제한하는 가정사항이 필요치 않은 확률모델이며 본 해석으로부터 얻어지는 예민도(sensitivity)는 확률해에 큰 영향을 미치는 입력 매개변수에 대한 정보를 제공한다. 1차원 오염물 이동 신뢰성 해석으로 신뢰성해석 프로그램의 유용성과 정밀성을 검증하였으며, 연속 오염원의 2차원 해석과 농도 극한상태 함수를 이용하여 오염물 이동 경로상 지점의 입력변수가 신뢰성해석의 확률해(解)에 미치는 영향을 검토하였다.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.125-133
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• 1991

구조응답이나 상태함수가 음함수(implicit function)형태로 주어지는 복잡한 구조물의 설계감도해석 및 신뢰성해석을 효율적으로 수행할 수 있는 방법을 개발하기 위하여, 먼저 확률 유한요소법을 사용한 확정론적 감도해석 방법을 정식화하고, 이를 바탕으로 MVFOSM, AFOSM 및 SORM등의 2차 모우먼트 방법에 의한 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였으며, 또한 신뢰성에 기초한 최적설계를 수행하는 경우에 필요한 확률론적 설계감도해석 방법을 제시하였다. 수치해석 예로서 박판 구조물의 평면응력문제와 판굽힘문제에 대한 해석을 수행하였는데, 초기 항복이 발생하는 경우를 파괴상태로 정의하였으며, 외부하중, 항복응력, 판두께, 탄성계수 및 Poisson비 등을 확률변수로 다루었다. 모든 경우에 있어서, 본 논문에서 제시한 방법으로 구한 구조응답의 분산이나 파괴확률이 Monte Carlo simulation의 결과와 잘 일치함을 알 수 있었으며, 또한 신뢰성설계시, 확률론적 감도해석결과로부터 확률변수들의 상대적 중요도를 파악할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 설계변수(혹은 확률변수)의 평균 혹은 분산계수의 변화에 따른 신뢰성지수의 변화량을 미리 예측할 수도 있다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.87-94
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• 2019

This study deals with the reliability analysis approach of the temporary structure that can consider the uncertainty in rotational stiffness at the joints of the members, for which the semi-rigid connections are modelled as rotational spring and its coefficient is treated as a random variable following uniform distribution. In addition, this study introduces a computational procedure of the effective length coefficient for more accurate buckling load according to connection conditions of the supporting members attached to the joint. From the results of this study, it can be seen that the failure probability of the joint-hinge model (Case 1) presented in the design standard is higher than that of the practical model (Case 5) considering the rotational stiffness at the joints. This implies that the design standard leads to a conservative design of the temporary structure. The results also confirmed that the failure probability of the vertical member, i.e., the most critical member, can be further reduced when the base connection is provided with a fixed end. The comparative results between FORM, SORM and MCS further demonstrated that FORM can have a high level of numerical efficiency while ensuring the accuracy of the solution, compared with SORM and MCS. Based on these results, the proposed approach can be used as an accurate and efficient reliability analysis method of the three dimensional temporary structure.