• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.25-32
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• 2024

As materials cure, the internal electrical flow changes, leading to variations in the dielectric constant over time. This study aims to assess the impact of voltage values extracted from time domain reflectometry (TDR) waveforms, measured during the curing of materials, on predicting the dielectric constant. The experiments are conducted over a curing period ranging from 60 to 8640 minutes, with 30 TDR trials. From the measured waveforms, values of V₀, V₁, V₂, V_f, and Δt are deduced. Additionally, curing time is included as an input variable. Groups A and B are distinguished based on the presence or absence of Δt, indicating a physical relationship between Δt and the dielectric constant. The dielectric constant is set as the output variable. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm is applied to the compiled data. The results indicate that Δt and V₁ are the most influential input variables in both Group-A and Group-B. The study also presents the distribution of SHAP values and interacts SHAP values to infer the interrelationships among the input variables. To validate the reliability of these findings, the partial dependence (PD) algorithm is applied to estimate the marginal effects of each input variable, with outcomes closely aligning with those of the SHAP algorithm. This research suggests that understanding the contributions and proportional relationships of each input variable can aid in interpreting the relationships among various material properties.

• Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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• v.10 no.spc
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• pp.86-95
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• 2022

Online recruitment websites discuss job demands in various fields, and job postings contain detailed job specifications. Analyzing this text can elucidate the features that determine job salaries. Text embedding models can learn the contextual information in a text, and explainable artificial intelligence frameworks can be used to examine in detail how text features contribute to the models' outputs. We collected 733,625 job postings using the WORKNET API and classified them into low, mid, and high-range salary groups. A text embedding model that predicts job salaries based on the text in job postings was trained with the collected data. Then, we applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to the trained model and discovered the significant words that determine each salary class. Several limitations and remaining words are also discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2024.01a
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• pp.39-40
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• 2024

본 연구는 SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)을 활용하여 신용카드 사용자의 연체 가능성을 예측하는 기계학습 모델의 해석 가능성을 강화하는 방법을 제안한다. 대규모 신용카드 데이터를 분석하여, 고객의 나이, 성별, 결혼 상태, 결제 이력 등이 연체 발생에 미치는 영향을 명확히 하는 것을 목표로 한다. 본 연구를 토대로 금융기관은 더 정확한 위험 관리를 수행하고, 고객에게 맞춤형 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 기반을 마련할 수 있다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.51-59
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• 2024

This study examines the relationship between the release of the news and the individual stock returns. Investors utilize a variety of information sources to maximize stock returns when establishing investment strategies. News companies publish their articles based on stock recommendation reports of analysts, enhancing the reliability of the information. Defining release of a stock-recommendation news article as an event, we examine its economic impacts and propose a binary classification model that predicts the stock return 10 days after the event. XGBoost and LightGBM models are applied for the study with accuracy of 75%, 71% respectively. In addition, after categorizing the recommended stocks based on the listed market(KOSPI/KOSDAQ) and market capitalization(Big/Small), this study verifies difference in the accuracy of models across four sub-datasets. Finally, by conducting SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, we identify the key variables in each model, reinforcing the interpretability of models.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.679-695
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• 2024

This paper presents a novel technique that combines machine learning (ML) with moth-flame optimization (MFO) methods to predict the axial compressive strength (ACS) of concrete filled double skin steel tubes (CFDST) columns. The proposed model is trained and tested with a dataset containing 125 tests of the CFDST column subjected to compressive loading. Five ML models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient tree boosting (GBT), categorical gradient boosting (CAT), support vector machines (SVM), and decision tree (DT) algorithms, are utilized in this work. The MFO algorithm is applied to find optimal hyperparameters of these ML models and to determine the most effective model in predicting the ACS of CFDST columns. Predictive results given by some performance metrics reveal that the MFO-CAT model provides superior accuracy compared to other considered models. The accuracy of the MFO-CAT model is validated by comparing its predictive results with existing design codes and formulae. Moreover, the significance and contribution of each feature in the dataset are examined by employing the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification on probabilistic characteristics of the ACS of CFDST columns is conducted for the first time to examine the models' responses to variations of input variables in the stochastic environments. Finally, a web-based application is developed to predict ACS of the CFDST column, enabling rapid practical utilization without requesting any programing or machine learning expertise.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 2023

With the fast development of artificial intelligence day by day, users are demanding explanations about the results of algorithms and want to know what parameters influence the results. In this paper, we propose a model for bankruptcy prediction with interpretability using the SHAP framework. SHAP (SHAPley Additive exPlanations) is framework that gives a visualized result that can be used for explanation and interpretation of machine learning models. As a result, we can describe which features are important for the result of our deep learning model. SHAP framework Force plot result gives us top features which are mainly reflecting overall model score. Even though Fully Connected Neural Networks are a "black box" model, Shapley values help us to alleviate the "black box" problem. FCNNs perform well with complex dataset with more than 60 financial ratios. Combined with SHAP framework, we create an effective model with understandable interpretation. Bankruptcy is a rare event, then we avoid imbalanced dataset problem with the help of SMOTE. SMOTE is one of the oversampling technique that resulting synthetic samples are generated for the minority class. It uses K-nearest neighbors algorithm for line connecting method in order to producing examples. We expect our model results assist financial analysts who are interested in forecasting bankruptcy prediction of companies in detail.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2022.11a
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• pp.513-515
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• 2022

본 연구는 범죄를 발생시키는데 관련된 여러가지 요인들을 기반으로 범죄 예측 모델을 생성하고 설명 가능 인공지능 기술을 적용하여 인천 광역시를 대상으로 범죄 발생에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하였다. 범죄 예측 모델 생성을 위해 XG Boost 알고리즘을 적용하였으며, 설명 가능 인공지능 기술로는 Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)을 사용하였다. 기존 관련 사례들을 참고하여 범죄 예측에 사용된 변수를 선정하였고 변수에 대한 데이터는 공공 데이터를 수집하였다. 실험 결과 성매매단속 현황과 청소년 실종 가출 신고 현황이 범죄 발생에 큰 영향을 미치는 주요 요인으로 나타났다. 제안하는 모델은 범죄 발생 지역, 요인들을 미리 예측하여 제시함으로써 범죄 예방에 사용되는 인력자원, 물적자원 등을 용이하게 쓸 수 있도록 활용할 수 있다.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.339-346
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• 2022

Recently, the resource depletion and climate change problem caused by the massive usage of fossil fuels for electric power generation has become a critical issue worldwide. According to this issue, interest in renewable energy resources that can replace fossil fuels is increasing. Especially, photovoltaic power has gaining much attention because there is no risk of resource exhaustion compared to other energy resources and there are low restrictions on installation of photovoltaic system. In order to use the power generated by the photovoltaic system efficiently, a more accurate photovoltaic power forecasting model is required. So far, even though many machine learning and deep learning-based photovoltaic power forecasting models have been proposed, they showed limited success in terms of interpretability. Deep learning-based forecasting models have the disadvantage of being difficult to explain how the forecasting results are derived. To solve this problem, many studies are being conducted on explainable artificial intelligence technique. The reliability of the model can be secured if it is possible to interpret how the model derives the results. Also, the model can be improved to increase the forecasting accuracy based on the analysis results. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an explainable photovoltaic power forecasting scheme based on BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations).

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.241-265
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• 2023

A corporate insolvency prediction model serves as a vital tool for objectively monitoring the financial condition of companies. It enables timely warnings, facilitates responsive actions, and supports the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate bankruptcy risks and enhance performance. Investors and financial institutions utilize default prediction models to minimize financial losses. As the interest in utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) technology for corporate insolvency prediction grows, extensive research has been conducted in this domain. However, there is an increasing demand for explainable AI models in corporate insolvency prediction, emphasizing interpretability and reliability. The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) technique has gained significant popularity and has demonstrated strong performance in various applications. Nonetheless, it has limitations such as computational cost, processing time, and scalability concerns based on the number of variables. This study introduces a novel approach to variable selection that reduces the number of variables by averaging SHAP values from bootstrapped data subsets instead of using the entire dataset. This technique aims to improve computational efficiency while maintaining excellent predictive performance. To obtain classification results, we aim to train random forest, XGBoost, and C5.0 models using carefully selected variables with high interpretability. The classification accuracy of the ensemble model, generated through soft voting as the goal of high-performance model design, is compared with the individual models. The study leverages data from 1,698 Korean light industrial companies and employs bootstrapping to create distinct data groups. Logistic Regression is employed to calculate SHAP values for each data group, and their averages are computed to derive the final SHAP values. The proposed model enhances interpretability and aims to achieve superior predictive performance.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.6_3
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• pp.1721-1730
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• 2023

As awareness of the problem of global warming emerges around the world, the role of carbon sinks in settlement is increasingly emphasized to achieve carbon neutrality in urban areas. In order to manage carbon sinks in settlement, it is necessary to identify the current status of carbon sinks. Identifying the status of carbon sinks requires a lot of manpower and time and a corresponding budget. Therefore, in this study, a map predicting the location of trees was created using already established tree location information and Sentinel-2 satellite images targeting Seoul. To this end, after constructing a tree presence/absence dataset, structured data was generated using 16 types of vegetation indices information constructed from satellite images. After learning this by applying the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, a tree prediction map was created. Afterward, the correlation between independent and dependent variables was investigated in model learning using the Shapely value of Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP). A comparative analysis was performed between maps produced for local parts of Seoul and sub-categorized land cover maps. In the case of the tree prediction model produced in this study, it was confirmed that even hard-to-detect street trees around the main street were predicted as trees.