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Monthly temperature forecasting using large-scale climate teleconnections and multiple regression models (대규모 기후 원격상관성 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 월 평균기온 예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.731-745
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

Convergent Studies of Utilization Plan and Brand Suggestion for Abandoned Passenger Ferry Terminal in Jangseungpo to Improve Local Community Value (지역 가치 증진을 위한 장승포 폐 여객선 터미널의 활용 방안 및 브랜드 제안에 관한 융합 연구)

  • Lee, Ha Na;Oh, Kwang Myung;Paik, Jin Kyung
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2019
  • Along with changes in the industrial structure, revitalizing decrepit or abandoned industrial-age infrastructures are actively under way on a global scale. This study was motivated by an interest in investigating currently idle industrial infrastructures and revitalizing the abandoned passenger ferry terminal in Geoje's Jangseungpo and surrounding areas. The main aims of this study were to examine regional features for the purpose of establishing urban renewal plans and field opinions of the local residents on how to proceed with the restoration of the passenger ferry terminal. To this end, this paper looked into previous case studies of converting decrepit industrial infrastructures into new cultural venues, depending on each region's special circumstances. This paper's findings are as follows: First, as a result of this investigation, the author found that in all cases in Korea and elsewhere revitalization focused on creating modern cultural spaces appropriate for the region while retaining its traditional value. At the same time, they sought sustainable cultural and economic revival. Second, as a result of the investigation on Geoje City's local characteristics, the author found that the surrounding areas' commercial districts were depressed after the terminal's closure. At the time of the investigation, the city government was trying to reopen the terminal as a major port offering multiple international ferry destinations while attracting tourists. Third, as a result of the surveys on the local residents, it was found that more than half of the residents were in agreement with the city government's plan to reopen the terminal and expressed their wishes that they want the terminal to have other uses such as cultural venues. Based on these research results, the author makes proposals, including expanding the passenger ferry terminal and offering cultural spaces within and near the terminal, based on the local residents' opinions and in reflection of local circumstances. As part of this effort, the author also recommends a new brand name and design plan for the new passenger ferry terminal so that Geoje City can improve its local community value.

Perception and Appraisal of Urban Park Users Using Text Mining of Google Maps Review - Cases of Seoul Forest, Boramae Park, Olympic Park - (구글맵리뷰 텍스트마이닝을 활용한 공원 이용자의 인식 및 평가 - 서울숲, 보라매공원, 올림픽공원을 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Ju-Kyung;Son, Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 2021
  • The study aims to grasp the perception and appraisal of urban park users through text analysis. This study used Google review data provided by Google Maps. Google Maps Review is an online review platform that provides information evaluating locations through social media and provides an understanding of locations from the perspective of general reviewers and regional guides who are registered as members of Google Maps. The study determined if the Google Maps Reviews were useful for extracting meaningful information about the user perceptions and appraisals for parks management plans. The study chose three urban parks in Seoul, South Korea; Seoul Forest, Boramae Park, and Olympic Park. Review data for each of these three parks were collected via web crawling using Python. Through text analysis, the keywords and network structure characteristics for each park were analyzed. The text was analyzed, as were park ratings, and the analysis compared the reviews of residents and foreign tourists. The common keywords found in the review comments for the three parks were "walking", "bicycle", "rest" and "picnic" for activities, "family", "child" and "dogs" for accompanying types, and "playground" and "walking trail" for park facilities. Looking at the characteristics of each park, Seoul Forest shows many outdoor activities based on nature, while the lack of parking spaces and congestion on weekends negatively impacted users. Boramae Park has the appearance of a city park, with various facilities providing numerous activities, but reviewers often cited the park's complexity and the negative aspects in terms of dog walking groups. At Olympic Park, large-scale complex facilities and cultural events were frequently mentioned, emphasizing its entertainment functions. Google Maps Review can function as useful data to identify parks' overall users' experiences and general feelings. Compared to data from other social media sites, Google Maps Review's data provides ratings and understanding factors, including user satisfaction and dissatisfaction.

Cross-cultural Adaptation and Psychometric Evaluation of the Korean Version of the A-ONE (한국판 일상생활활동중심 작업기반 신경행동평가(A-ONE)의 개발 및 평가)

  • Kang, Jaewon;Park, Hae Yean;Kim, Jung-Ran;Park, Ji-Hyuk
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.109-128
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    • 2021
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to develop a Korean version of the Activities of Daily Living (ADL)-focused Occupation-Based Neurobehavioral Evaluation (A-ONE) through cross-cultural adaptation and examine its validity and reliability. Methods : This study translated the A-ONE into Korean and performed cross-cultural adaptation for the Korean population. After the development of the Korean version of the A-ONE, cross-cultural and concurrent validities were analyzed. Internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and inter-rater reliability were also evaluated. Results : We adapted three items to the Korean culture. The Korean version of the A-ONE showed high cross-cultural validity with a content validity index (I-CVI) >0.9. It correlated with the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) (r=0.52-0.77, p<0.001), except for communication. Cronbach's α was 0.58-0.93 for the functional independence scale (FI) and 0.42-0.93 for the neurobehavioral specific impairment subscale (NBSIS). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) indicated high test-retest and inter-rater reliability for FI (ICC=0.79-1.00 and 0.75-1.00, respectively) and NBSIS (ICC=0.74-1.00 and 0.72-1.00, respectively). Conclusion : The Korean version of the A-ONE is well adapted to the Korean culture and has good validity and reliability. It is recommended to evaluate ADL performance skills and neurobehavioral impairments simultaneously in Korea.

Analyzing the discriminative characteristic of cover letters using text mining focused on Air Force applicants (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 공군 부사관 지원자 자기소개서의 차별적 특성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyeok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.75-94
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    • 2021
  • The low birth rate and shortened military service period are causing concerns about selecting excellent military officers. The Republic of Korea entered a low birth rate society in 1984 and an aged society in 2018 respectively, and is expected to be in a super-aged society in 2025. In addition, the troop-oriented military is changed as a state-of-the-art weapons-oriented military, and the reduction of the military service period was implemented in 2018 to ease the burden of military service for young people and play a role in the society early. Some observe that the application rate for military officers is falling due to a decrease of manpower resources and a preference for shortened mandatory military service over military officers. This requires further consideration of the policy of securing excellent military officers. Most of the related studies have used social scientists' methodologies, but this study applies the methodology of text mining suitable for large-scale documents analysis. This study extracts words of discriminative characteristics from the Republic of Korea Air Force Non-Commissioned Officer Applicant cover letters and analyzes the polarity of pass and fail. It consists of three steps in total. First, the application is divided into general and technical fields, and the words characterized in the cover letter are ordered according to the difference in the frequency ratio of each field. The greater the difference in the proportion of each application field, the field character is defined as 'more discriminative'. Based on this, we extract the top 50 words representing discriminative characteristics in general fields and the top 50 words representing discriminative characteristics in technology fields. Second, the number of appropriate topics in the overall cover letter is calculated through the LDA. It uses perplexity score and coherence score. Based on the appropriate number of topics, we then use LDA to generate topic and probability, and estimate which topic words of discriminative characteristic belong to. Subsequently, the keyword indicators of questions used to set the labeling candidate index, and the most appropriate index indicator is set as the label for the topic when considering the topic-specific word distribution. Third, using L-LDA, which sets the cover letter and label as pass and fail, we generate topics and probabilities for each field of pass and fail labels. Furthermore, we extract only words of discriminative characteristics that give labeled topics among generated topics and probabilities by pass and fail labels. Next, we extract the difference between the probability on the pass label and the probability on the fail label by word of the labeled discriminative characteristic. A positive figure can be seen as having the polarity of pass, and a negative figure can be seen as having the polarity of fail. This study is the first research to reflect the characteristics of cover letters of Republic of Korea Air Force non-commissioned officer applicants, not in the private sector. Moreover, these methodologies can apply text mining techniques for multiple documents, rather survey or interview methods, to reduce analysis time and increase reliability for the entire population. For this reason, the methodology proposed in the study is also applicable to other forms of multiple documents in the field of military personnel. This study shows that L-LDA is more suitable than LDA to extract discriminative characteristics of Republic of Korea Air Force Noncommissioned cover letters. Furthermore, this study proposes a methodology that uses a combination of LDA and L-LDA. Therefore, through the analysis of the results of the acquisition of non-commissioned Republic of Korea Air Force officers, we would like to provide information available for acquisition and promotional policies and propose a methodology available for research in the field of military manpower acquisition.

A Study on Deriving Process of a Design Alternative to the Forest Experience Center for Children through Preschooler Participatory (유아참여를 통한 유아숲체험원 설계안 도출과정에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Tae-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • This study is to derive a design alternative to the FECC (Forest Experience Center for Children) that meets the preschooler's preferences. For this purpose, preschooler participation is included in each phase of the FECC, the site perception phase, the deriving design elements phase, and the deriving design alternative phase. In this study, the process of the deriving design alternative phase was carried out with kindergarteners and preschoolers (6, 7 years olds; all 41 students) at Songsan-mulbit FECC in Gwangsan-gu, Gwangju. In order to derive the design alternatives, three detailed design processes (preschooler participation 2 times, researcher analysis 1 time), tool construction, and a preschooler participation workshop were conducted. The results of this study are as follows. First, as a result of the preschooler's design process, 41 designs were drawn, and an average of 7.66 spaces were drawn by each preschooler. The 6-year-old males designed the least (average 6.80 spaces) and the 7-year-old females designed the most (9.0 spaces). The physical and adventure play spaces were most common (38.9% to 48.7%) regardless of gender or age. To analyze the feasibility of the preschooler's design using a base map, the appearance of the physical environmental characteristics (7 items) in the site were analyzed in each of the 41 designs. As a result, the environmental characteristics were apparent a total 72 times overall. Similar environmental characteristics appearing more than once were apparent in 87.8% (26 designs) of designs. Second, three design alternatives were derived: APS- types (intensive planning of active play facility spaces) was presented in 15 designs, NS-types (planning focused on nature spaces) was presented in 14 designs, and SPS-types (planning focused on static play facility spaces) were presented 12 designs. Third, NS-type, which were finally selected through a preference assessment (5-point scale) and a comparative assessment of the three alternatives, has mainly natural spaces (forest space, forest path, shelter, natural exploration space, and ecological pond) and active play facility spaces, water play space and soil (sand) play spaces was appropriately designed. Therefore, the NS-type was analyzed as the design alternative that can fully accomplish all types of cognitive development through developed through play (functional play, constructive play, dramatic(symbolic) play).

The Effect of the Surfactant on the Migration and Distribution of Immiscible Fluids in Pore Network (계면활성제가 공극 구조 내 비혼성 유체의 거동과 분포에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Gyuryeong;Kim, Seon-Ok;Wang, Sookyun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2021
  • The geological CO2 sequestration in underground geological formation such as deep saline aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs is one of the most promising options for reducing the atmospheric CO2 emissions. The process in geological CO2 sequestration involves injection of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) into porous media saturated with pore water and initiates CO2 flooding with immiscible displacement. The CO2 migration and distribution, and, consequently, the displacement efficiency is governed by the interaction of fluids. Especially, the viscous force and capillary force are controlled by geological formation conditions and injection conditions. This study aimed to estimate the effects of surfactant on interfacial tension between the immiscible fluids, scCO2 and porewater, under high pressure and high temperature conditions by using a pair of proxy fluids under standard conditions through pendant drop method. It also aimed to observe migration and distribution patterns of the immiscible fluids and estimate the effects of surfactant concentrations on the displacement efficiency of scCO2. Micromodel experiments were conducted by applying n-hexane and deionized water as proxy fluids for scCO2 and porewater. In order to quantitatively analyze the immiscible displacement phenomena by n-hexane injection in pore network, the images of migration and distribution pattern of the two fluids are acquired through a imaging system. The experimental results revealed that the addition of surfactants sharply reduces the interfacial tension between hexane and deionized water at low concentrations and approaches a constant value as the concentration increases. Also it was found that, by directly affecting the flow path of the flooding fluid at the pore scale in the porous medium, the surfactant showed the identical effect on the displacement efficiency of n-hexane at equilibrium state. The experimental observation results could provide important fundamental information on immiscible displacement of fluids in porous media and suggest the potential to improve the displacement efficiency of scCO2 by using surfactants.

Effect of Bottom Hole Pressure and Depressurization Rate on Stability and Gas Productivity of Hydrate-bearing Sediments during Gas Production by Depressurization Method (감압법을 이용한 가스 생산 시 하이드레이트 부존 퇴적층의 지반 안정성 및 가스 생산성에 대한 시추 공저압 및 감압 속도의 영향)

  • Kim, Jung-Tae;Kang, Seok-Jun;Lee, Minhyeong;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2021
  • The presence of the hydrate-bearing sediments in Ulleung Basin of South Korea has been confirmed from previous studies. Researches on gas production methods from the hydrate-bearing sediments have been conducted worldwide. As production mechanism is a complex phenomenon in which thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical phenomena occur simultaneously, it is difficult to accurately conduct the productivity and stability analysis of hydrate bearing sediments through lab-scale experiments. Thus, the importance of numerical analysis in evaluating gas productivity and stability of hydrate-bearing sediments has been emphasized. In this study, the numerical parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of the bottom hole pressure and the depressurization rate on the gas productivity and stability of hydrate-bearing sediments during the depressurization method. The numerical analysis results confirmed that as the bottom hole pressure decreases, the productivity increases and the stability of sediments deteriorates. Meanwhile, it was shown that the depressurization rate did not largely affect the productivity and stability of the hydrate-bearing sediments. In addition, sensitivity analysis for gas productivity and stability of the sediments were conducted according to the depressurization rate in order to establish a production strategy that prevents sand production during gas production. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that controlling the depressurization rate from a low value to a high value is effective in securing the stability. Moreover, during gas production, the subsidence of sediments occurred near the production well, and ground heave occurred at the bottom of the production well due to the pressure gradient. From these results, it was concluded that both the productivity and stability analyses should be conducted in order to determine the bottom hole pressure when producing gas using the depressurization method. Additionally, the stress analysis of the production well, which is induced by the vertical displacements of sediments, should be evaluated.

Plasma Levels of Cytokines in Patients with Postpartum Depression (산후우울증 환자에서 혈장 Cytokine의 농도변화에 대한 전향적 연구)

  • Lee, Younjung;Kim, Yong-Ku;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Lee, Bun-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.177-184
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : Postpartum depression is known to occur in 10-15% of mothers. The concentration of cytokine varies depending on stress, depression, pregnancy and general medical conditions. We hypothesized that the concentration of cytokines may be related to reproduction and childbirth, and that women with postpartum depression would show alterations in cytokines levels. Methods : A total of 104 pregnant women were selected as subjects, and 60 non-pregnant women were selected as normal controls. Symptoms of depression were evaluated in the pregnant study subjects using the diagnostic criteria outlined in the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). The pregnant subjects were divided into three groups perinatal non-depression controls (n=61), postpartum depression-recovery (n=18), and postpartum depression (n=25). Results : The plasma concentration of TGF-β1, IGF-1 was higher in the pregnant group than in non-pregnant controls (TGF-β1 ; p<0.01, IGF-1 ; p=0.026). At 24 weeks of pregnancy and 6 weeks of delivery, there were no significant differences in the plasma concentration of TGF-β1, IGF-1, β-NGF, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IFN-γ, TNF-α between the three groups. There was no statistically significant difference in all three groups during the course of depression in pregnant women. Conclusions : This study found significant difference in plasma cytokines concentrations between non-pregnant controls and perinatal non-depression controls.

Needs and Related Factors for Return-to-Work Support in Cancer Survivors (암 경험자의 직장복귀지원에 대한 요구도 및 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Sungwon;Lee, Kwang-Min;Oh, Gyu-Han;Yeom, Chan-Woo;Jung, Sanghyup;Hahm, Bong-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to investigate the needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors and related factors in patients with cancer and their caregivers. Methods : 182 patients and 114 caregivers were recruited. Distress Thermometer and Problem List and scale ranging 0~10 measuring the degree of needs for return-to-work support were utilized. The needs for return-to-work support between the patient group and caregiver group (patient's needs evaluated by the caregiver) were compared, and related factors were investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results : 34.6% and 28.1% of patients and caregivers reported return-to-work support of cancer survivors is "very necessary". The degree of needs was 6.60±3.365 points in the patient group and 6.17±3.454 points in the caregiver group, with no significant difference (p=0.282). The needs for return-to-work support evaluated by patients was high when they underwent surgery (OR=2.592, p=0.007), has fertility problems (OR=6.137, p=0.025), has appearance problems (OR=2.081, p=0.041), or has fatigue (OR=2.330, p=0.020). The needs for return-to-work support of patients evaluated by caregivers was high when patients treated with breast cancer (vs respiratory cancer, OR=13.038, p=0.022 ; vs leukemia/lymphoma, OR=4.517, p=0.025 ; vs other cancer, OR=13.102, p=0.019), has work/school problems (OR=4.578, p=0.005), or has depression (OR=3.213, p=0.022). Conclusions : The degree of needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors was high, and factors related to the needs were different between the two groups. This suggests that return-to-work support of cancer survivors is required, and clinical characteristics, the distress of patients, and differences between patients and their caregivers should be considered in establishing a support plan.