• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.129-139
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• 2023

Forecasting volatility is essential to avoiding the risk caused by the uncertainties of an financial asset. Complicated financial volatility features such as ambiguity between non-stationarity and stationarity, asymmetry, long-memory, sudden fairly large values like outliers bring great challenges to volatility forecasts. In order to address such complicated features implicity, we consider machine leaning models such as LSTM (1997) and GRU (2014), which are known to be suitable for existing time series forecasting. However, there are the problems of vanishing gradients, of enormous amount of computation, and of a huge memory. To solve these problems, a causal temporal convolutional network (TCN) model, an advanced form of 1D CNN, is also applied. It is confirmed that the overall forecasting power of TCN model is higher than that of the RNN models in forecasting VIX, VXD, and VXN, the daily volatility indices of S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq, respectively.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.163-173
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• 2021

Objective: This study aimed to characterize a validated model for predicting oocyte retrieval in controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and to construct model-based nomograms for assistance in clinical decision-making regarding the gonadotropin protocol and dose. Methods: This observational, retrospective, cohort study included 636 women with primary unexplained infertility and a normal menstrual cycle who were attempting assisted reproductive therapy for the first time. The enrolled women were split into an index group (n=497) for model building and a validation group (n=139). The primary outcome was absolute oocyte count. The dose-response relationship was tested using modified Poisson, negative binomial, hybrid Poisson-E_max, and linear models. The validation group was similarly analyzed, and its results were compared to that of the index group. Results: The Poisson model with the log-link function demonstrated superior predictive performance and precision (Akaike information criterion, 2,704; λ=8.27; relative standard error (λ)=2.02%). The covariate analysis included women's age (p<0.001), antral follicle count (p<0.001), basal follicle-stimulating hormone level (p<0.001), gonadotropin dose (p=0.042), and protocol type (p=0.002 and p<0.001 for short and antagonist protocols, respectively). The estimates from 500 bootstrap samples were close to those of the original model. The validation group showed model assessment metrics comparable to the index model. Based on the fitted model, a static nomogram was built to improve visualization. In addition, a dynamic electronic tool was created for convenience of use. Conclusion: Based on our validated model, nomograms were constructed to help clinicians individualize the stimulation protocol and gonadotropin doses in COS cycles.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.67-71
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• 2015

Objective: Elevated serum progesterone (P) levels on triggering day have been known to affect the pregnancy rate of in vitro fertilization (IVF). This study aimed to identify the possible factors influencing serum P levels on triggering day in stimulated IVF cycles. Methods: Three hundred and thirty consecutive fresh IVF cycles were included in the study. All cycles were first attempts and were performed in a single infertility center. The indications for IVF were male factor infertility (n=114), ovulatory infertility (n=84), endometriosis (n=61), tubal infertility (n=59), unexplained infertility (n=41), and uterine factor infertility (n=39). A luteal long protocol of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist (n=184) or a GnRH antagonist protocol (n=146) was used for pituitary suppression. Ovarian sensitivity was defined as the serum estradiol level on triggering day per 500 IU of administered gonadotropins (OS[a]) or the retrieved oocyte number per 500 IU of administered gonadotropins (OS[b]). Results: Univariate analysis revealed that the serum P level on triggering day was associated with the serum estradiol level on triggering day (r=0.379, p<0.001), the number of follicles ${\geq}14mm$ (r=0.247, p<0.001), the number of retrieved oocytes (r=0.384, p<0.001), and ovarian sensitivity (OS[a]: r=0.245, p<0.001; OS[b]: r=0.170, p=0.002). The woman's age, body mass index, antral follicle count, and basal serum follicle stimulating hormone and estradiol levels were not associated with serum P level on triggering day. The serum P level on triggering day did not show significant variation depending on the type or cause of infertility, pituitary suppression protocol, or the type of gonadotropins used. Conclusion: The serum P level on triggering day was closely related to the response to ovarian stimulation.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.2
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• pp.173-184
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• 2002

This paper discuss an index-based subsequence matching that supports time warping in large sequence databases. Time warping enables finding sequences with similar patterns even when they are of different lengths. In earlier work, Kim et al. suggested an efficient method for whole matching under time warping. This method constructs a multidimensional index on a set of feature vectors, which are invariant to time warping, from data sequences. For filtering at feature space, it also applies a lower-bound function, which consistently underestimates the time warping distance as well as satisfies the triangular inequality. In this paper, we incorporate the prefix-querying approach based on sliding windows into the earlier approach. For indexing, we extract a feature vector from every subsequence inside a sliding window and construct a multidimensional index using a feature vector as indexing attributes. For query processing, we perform a series of index searches using the feature vectors of qualifying query prefixes. Our approach provides effective and scalable subsequence matching even with a large volume of a database. We also prove that our approach does not incur false dismissal. To verify the superiority of our approach, we perform extensive experiments. The results reveal that our approach achieves significant speedup with real-world S&P 500 stock data and with very large synthetic data.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.21 no.A
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• pp.167-179
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• 2001

This paper discusses an index-based subsequence matching that supports time warping in large sequence databases. Time warping enables finding sequences with similar patterns even when they are of different lengths. In earlier work, we suggested an efficient method for whole matching under time warping. This method constructs a multidimensional index on a set of feature vectors, which are invariant to time warping, from data sequences. For filtering at feature space, it also applies a lower-bound function, which consistently underestimates the time warping distance as well as satisfies the triangular inequality. In this paper, we incorporate the prefix-querying approach based on sliding windows into the earlier approach. For indexing, we extract a feature vector from every subsequence inside a sliding window and construct a multi-dimensional index using a feature vector as indexing attributes. For query precessing, we perform a series of index searches using the feature vectors of qualifying query prefixes. Our approach provides effective and scalable subsequence matching even with a large volume of a database. We also prove that our approach does not incur false dismissal. To verily the superiority of our method, we perform extensive experiments. The results reseal that our method achieves significant speedup with real-world S&P 500 stock data and with very large synthetic data.

• Advanced Industrial SCIence
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.22-28
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• 2023

In this study, we conducted research on the automated trading of U.S. stocks through a volatility strategy using the Fear and Greed index. Volatility in the stock market is a common phenomenon that can lead to fluctuations in stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this volatility by implementing a strategy based on it, involving the buying and selling of stocks based on their expected level of volatility. The goal of this thesis is to investigate the effectiveness of the volatility strategy in generating profits in the stock market.This study employs a quantitative research methodology using secondary data from the stock market. The dataset comprises daily stock prices and daily volatility measures for the S&P 500 index stocks. Over a five-year period spanning from 2016 to 2020, the stocks were listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The strategy involves purchasing stocks from the low volatility group and selling stocks from the high volatility group. The results indicate that the volatility strategy yields positive returns, with an average annual return of 9.2%, compared to the benchmark return of 7.5% for the sample period. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the strategy outperforms the benchmark return in four out of the five years within the sample period. Particularly noteworthy is the strategy's performance during periods of high market volatility, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where it generated a return of 14.6%, as opposed to the benchmark return of 5.5%.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.161-166
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• 2021

The macroeconomic concept represents the movement of a country's economy, and it affects the overall economic activities of business, government, and households. In the macroeconomy, by looking at changes in national income, inflation, unemployment, currency, interest rates, and raw materials, it is possible to understand the effects of economic actors' actions and interactions on the prices of products and services. The US Federal Reserve System (FED) is leading the world economy by offering various stimulus measures to overcome the corona economic recession. Although the stock price continued to decline on March 20, 2020 due to the current economic recession caused by the corona, the US S&P 500 index began rebounding after March 23 and to 3,694.62 as of December 15 due to quantitative easing, a powerful stimulus for the FED. Therefore, the FED's economic stimulus measures based on macroeconomic indicators are more influencing, rather than judging the stock price forecast from the corporate financial statements. Therefore, this study was conducted to reduce losses in stock investment and establish sound investment by analyzing the FED's economic stimulus measures and its effect on stock prices.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.808-811
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• 2001

Performance of pilot plant scale extraction and concentration of purple-fleshed sweet potato anthocyanin pigment was tested and the characteristics of pigment extracts and concentrates were investigated. Fifty kilograms of purple-fleshed sweet potato was extracted with 500 L of 1% citric acid in 20% ethanol. As a whole, extraction pattern of the large scale extraction was similar to that of the laboratory scale extraction. The extracted pigment solution was filtered twice with a bag filter and a winding type microfilter and the filtrate was concentrated by a large scale vacuum evaporator at $40^{\circ}C$ and 600 mmHg vac. The mean values of total optical density (TOD) of the extract and the concentrate were 6.53 and 120.45, respectively. Browning index (BI) and Degradation index (DI) of extract were 5.86 and 1.55 and those of concentrate were 5.89 and 1.56, respectively, which indicated that the pigments were not changed or degraded through the extraction and concentration process.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.85-98
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• 2016

This study makes an empirical comparison of various realized volatilities (RVs) in terms of overnight returns. In financial asset markets, during overnight or holidays, no or few trading data are available causing a difficulty in computing RVs for a whole span of a day. A review will be made on several RVs reflecting overnight return variations. The comparison is made for forecast accuracies of several RVs for some financial assets: the US S&P500 index, the US NASDAQ index, the KOSPI (Korean Stock Price Index), and the foreign exchange rate of the Korea won relative to the US dollar. The RV of a day is compared with the square of the next day log-return, which is a proxy for the integrated volatility of the day. The comparison is made by investigating the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Statistical inference of MAE and RMSE is made by applying the model confidence set (MCS) approach and the Diebold-Mariano test. For the three index data, a specific RV emerges as the best one, which addresses overnight return variations by inflating daytime RV.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.23-43
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• 2021

Recently, many studies have been conducted to increase the accuracy of stock price prediction by analyzing candlestick charts using artificial intelligence techniques. However, these studies failed to consider the time-series characteristics of candlestick charts and to take into account the emotional state of market participants in data learning for stock price prediction. In order to overcome these limitations, this study produced input data by combining volatility index and candlestick charts to consider the emotional state of market participants, and used the data as input for a new method proposed on the basis of combining variantion autoencoder (VAE) and attention mechanisms for considering the time-series characteristics of candlestick chart. Fifty firms were randomly selected from the S&P 500 index and their stock prices were predicted to evaluate the performance of the method compared with existing ones such as convolutional neural network (CNN) or long-short term memory (LSTM). The results indicated the method proposed in this study showed superior performance compared to the existing ones. This study implied that the accuracy of stock price prediction could be improved by considering the emotional state of market participants and the time-series characteristics of the candlestick chart.