• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제9권4호
• /
• pp.83-92
• /
• 2022

Due to the uncertainty in the order of the integrated model, the SARIMA-LSTM model, SARIMA-SVR model, LSTM-SARIMA model, and SVR-SARIMA model are constructed respectively to determine the best-combined model for forecasting the China-Russia trade turnover. Meanwhile, the effect of the order of the combined models on the prediction results is analyzed. Using indicators such as MAPE and RMSE, we compare and evaluate the predictive effects of different models. The results show that the SARIMA-LSTM model combines the SARIMA model's short-term forecasting advantage with the LSTM model's long-term forecasting advantage, which has the highest forecast accuracy of all models and can accurately predict the trend of China-Russia trade turnover in the post-epidemic period. Furthermore, the SARIMA - LSTM model has a higher forecast accuracy than the LSTM-ARIMA model. Nevertheless, the SARIMA-SVR model's forecast accuracy is lower than the SVR-SARIMA model's. As a result, the combined models' order has no bearing on the predicting outcomes for the China-Russia trade turnover time series.

• Acta Via Serica
• /
• 제6권1호
• /
• pp.55-90
• /
• 2021

In the last several decades, and especially since the Chinese launching of the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative in 2013, the Chinese presence in Central Asia has intensified. Russia and Chinese leaders deny that there is any conflict of interests between them, while the standard narrative has been that the two states adhere to a functional division of tasks in which China concentrates on economic activity while Russia acts as the security guarantor for the region. This article argues that the professed equanimity between the Russian and Chinese leaderships masks the emergence of widening cracks in their relationship with regard to Central Asia. The convenient narrative of a functional division of tasks between the two states is called into question by China's increasingly active presence in the military and security sector in the region, but China's influence is growing throughout the Central Asian economic, political, and social order. China's movement into Central Asia challenges Russia's claim to act as an equal partner of China, as well as its pretensions to regional hegemony. This development reflects the widening disparity between the two states with respect to their power capabilities but it also exposes the interactions between Russia and China in Central Asia as the most vulnerable aspect of their relationship. In Central Asia, a defensive Russia encounters an ascendant China.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제46권5호
• /
• pp.13-30
• /
• 2021

The government of Vladimir Putin, which has been ruling Russia for a long period since 2000, has recently strived for the balanced development of underdeveloped regions and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, along with energy development in the Far East and Siberian regions, the government is promoting development projects on logistics and distribution infrastructure. It is also expanding the construction of innovative districts to develop cutting-edge technologies in the outskirts of Moscow. Amid these moves, South Korea is pushing for the New Northern Policy aimed at widening economic cooperation with European and North Asian countries to expand the scope and influence of the country's trade market. The previous year of 2020, marked the 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Russia. In this context, this study was initiated to propose various measures for promoting economic cooperation and expanding trade between South Korea and Russia. Therefore, this study examined Russia's political and economic environment and explored its major industrial environment with a focus on the energy industry, innovative districts and infra facility. The study also examined the progress of a FTA between the Eurasian Economic Union, in which Russia currently takes the lead, and South Korea and recommended several measures to upgrade and accelerate economic cooperation between the two countries through research on a range of topics.

• 분석과 대안
• /
• 제6권2호
• /
• pp.5-36
• /
• 2022

러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 미국과 러시아, 러시아와 우크라이나, 우크라이나 정부군과 반군 간 '3층위 복합전'이다. 첫째, 동 전쟁은 자유주의국제질서를 유지·강화하려는 서구 세력권과 새로운 대안질서를 추구하는 중러 세력권이 지정학적 단층대인 우크라이나에서 충돌함으로써 발생한 현상이다. 둘째, 이번 전쟁은 나토의 지속적 확장과 러시아의 대응이라는 '연쇄 반응'(chain reaction) 게임에 의한 전형적인 '안보 딜레마' 현상의 결과이다. 셋째, 러-우 전쟁은 우크라이나의 돈바스에 대한 군사적 수복을 저지하기 위한 러시아의 군사력 투사로 인해 발생했다. 그동안 미국을 위시한 서구 세계는 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 예상 밖의 결속력을 보여주었다. 그러나 중국을 비롯한 비서구 세계가 러시아에 대한 규탄과 제재에 동참하지 않고 있어 눈길을 끈다. 이번 전쟁은 냉전 종식 이후 형성되어 작동하고 있는 현 국제질서의 존립과 변화 유무의 중요한 분기점이 될 것이다. 전쟁의 전개 양상과 종결 방식에 따라 현 국제질서의 유지·복원, 수정·변경, 종식·전환의 방향이 결정될 가능성이 크며, 대체로 그동안의 전황을 고려해볼 때 두 번째 방향으로 나아갈 가능성이 크다.

• 분석과 대안
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.44-64
• /
• 2017

Russia's push in the Asia-Pacific region stems from its interests that have the national, regional and global dimensions. In their turn, the aims of this policy are civilizational, geopolitical, economic and prospective, with a long-term outlook. In the course of their achievement, cooperation with Northeast Asia's countries will play one of the key roles owing to the factors of geographic proximity, Northeast Asia's economic potential, risk hedging and a growing influence Northeast Asia exerts upon the global development. A new cooperation paradigm between Russia and the states of Northeast Asia should be based upon establishing and cementing self-reproducing ties. This is the central aim of Russian initiatives in relations, with Japan, the Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia and China. However, numerous obstacles ranging from Russia's absence in the regional free trade agreements and supply-production chains of value-added production to the permanent international instability generated by Pyongyang's missile-nuclear developments hamper the practical implementation of this task. Realizing the necessity to give an additional impetus to this new cooperative paradigm, Russia has to develop directions with an apparent consolidating effect. The most promising may be the establishment of a permanent security forum based upon Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism chaired by the Russian Federation. The urgency of this measure and its expected support stem from the necessity to strengthen security in Northeast Asia, a task neither the US-led hub-and-spoke system nor ASE-AN-led multilateral dialogue venues have been able to resolve. The issues addressed at the security forum must include the unification of approaches to North Korean nuclear issue and producing a document specifying actions of the claimants on the disputed maritime territories in the "direct contact" situations. At the expert level, Russia has elaborated on the idea to establish such a forum outlining the spectrum of the key directions of cooperation. With the urgency in the establishment of this dialogue venue, its agenda has to be coordinated with the agendas of the existing security systems presented by the US alliances and the ASE-AN-led multilateral negotiations. The practical implementation of this initiative will strengthen security in Northeast Asia as its challenges will be resolved in the pre-emptive way based on coordinated approaches. Therefore, Russia as the Eurasian state will be one of the role players in the advent of the Asian century.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제48권1호
• /
• pp.165-191
• /
• 2023

미국과 EU는 우크라이나 사태에 대응하여 러시아의 에너지 부문을 대상으로 제재하고 있다. 특히 대러 경제제재는 러시아의 석유가스 부문에 대한 에너지 제재의 성격을 가지고 있다. 미국과 EU는 모두 제재 부과국이지만, 미국은 천연가스 순수출국인 반면, 대부분의 EU 회원국들은 러시아에 대한 의존도가 높다는 근본적인 차이점이 존재한다. 따라서 미국과 EU의 대러 에너지 제재는 미국을 포함한 기타 석유가스 수출국들이 EU 에너지 시장에서 러시아를 대체할 공급을 확보할 수 있는 경우에 그 효과성이 보장될 수 있다. 즉, 주요 석유가스 수출국들의 러시아 대체 가능성은 대러 에너지 제재의 효과성을 좌우하는 중요한 결정 요인이다. 본 연구는 석유가스 수출국들의 러시아 대체 가능성 평가를 통해 대러 에너지 제재의 효과성을 살펴본다. 본 연구의 분석 결과, 대부분의 석유가스 수출국들의 추가 생산 역량과 인프라 부족 문제로 인해 단기에 러시아를 대체하는 석유가스의 확보는 어려울 것으로 평가되며, 이에따라 미국과 EU의 대러 에너지 제재는 그 효과성이 불분명한 것으로 판단된다. 우크라이나 사태의 해결을 위해서는 직접적인 제재보다 외교 등 다른 수단이 활용되어야 할 것이다.

• 한국자원식물학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국자원식물학회 2000년도 제7차 국제 심포지움(생약자원개발에 관한연구) 및 추계정기 학술발표회 초록집
• /
• pp.18-19
• /
• 2000

• 한국항공운항학회지
• /
• 제19권4호
• /
• pp.91-98
• /
• 2011

Korea's aerospace industry tries to achieve the exports goal in 2020, 10 billion dollars, in accordance with the "Future aviation industry development master plan", but it's skill is still not keeping pace. To secure and improve the appropriate technology, it is desperately needed to cooperate with advanced countries or companies of aerospace industry, but they are liked to manage their technology transfer or demand tremendous high price. This study presents that Russia could be a another nation which is able to cooperation on aerospace industry. Although Russia had have superior technology in aerospace industry, they have lost the competitiveness on that field after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, they are trying to regain their original fame in the commercialized way. So, this study suggests practical ways which South Korea and Russia may be helpful each other based on experiences working together.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.209-215
• /
• 2020

Russia has an interesting history as a donor, recipient and re-emerging donor in international development assistance (IDA). This article introduces the history, policy and challenges of Russian IDA, and provides suggestions for such challenges. The main barrier to Russian IDA is the absence of a central government agency and Russia can learn from other country's experience. Concerning lack of data on the provision of assistance to each sector of IDA and the large number of recipient countries, Russia can learn from Korea particularly in education sector. With respect to building a system ensuring the efficiency of the Russian IDA works, a tool for analysis of the effect of the Russian IDA programmes may be drawn in consultation with international institutions or successful programmes of other donor countries.

• Acta Via Serica
• /
• 제5권1호
• /
• pp.23-56
• /
• 2020

The study of Putin's Russia should be placed in a broad historiographical context, prevailing in the West. While in the beginning of the post-Soviet era, most observers believed that Russia would reach a Fukuyamian "end of history," the situation is quite different now. At present, Western observers see Putin's Russia as the manifestation of authoritarianism. While this assumption is undoubtedly true, it does not provide much insight into the regime's operational model. Here, a comparison with Renaissance and early modern Europe might provide a clue to the operational model of the regime. Similar to early modern European rulers, Putin limits the use of direct and wide use of force, preferring manipulation, corruption, and the targeted killing of his most important enemies. In foreign policy, Putin has tried to avoid wholesale conflicts and broadly uses mercenaries, whose relationships with the Kremlin are downplayed. The similarities between Putin's regime and early modern European regimes do not mean that their destinies will be the same. In Europe, the Renaissance led to centralized states, whereas in Russia, the "Renaissance" could well lead to the country's disintegration.