• Title/Summary/Keyword: Runs 이론

Search Result 45, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Simulation Analysis of Control Variates Method Using Stratified sampling (층화추출에 의한 통제변수의 시뮬레이션 성과분석)

  • Kwon, Chi-Myung;Kim, Seong-Yeon;Hwang, Sung-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.133-141
    • /
    • 2010
  • This research suggests a unified scheme for using stratified sampling and control variates method to improve the efficiency of estimation for parameters in simulation experiments. We utilize standardized concomitant variables defined during the course of simulation runs. We first use these concomitant variables to counteract the unknown error of response by the method of control variates, then use a concomitant variable not used in the controlled response and stratify the response into appropriate strata to reduce the variation of controlled response additionally. In case that the covariance between the response and a set of control variates is known, we identify the simulation efficiency of suggested method using control variates and stratified sampling. We conjecture the simulation efficiency of this method is better than that achieved by separated application of either control variates or stratified sampling in a simulation experiments. We investigate such an efficiency gain through simulation on a selected model.

Assessment of water supply stability for Boryeong dam using future RCP climate change scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 보령댐의 미래 용수공급 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Wonjin;Kim, Jinuk;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.43-43
    • /
    • 2020
  • 보령댐은 충남 서부지역 8개 시·군에 생활용수와 공업용수를 공급하고 있는 중요한 수원으로 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 연속적인 가뭄으로 2015년에는 저수율이 7.5 %까지 감소하여 제한급수가 시행되었다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄으로 인한 물 공급 부족에 취약함을 보인 보령댐 유역(297.4 ㎢)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델과 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 활용하여 극한 기후변화 사상이 반영된 보령댐의 내한능력을 평가하였다. SWAT 모형을 활용하여 보령댐의 물수지를 모의하기 위하여 보령댐의 실측 유출량, 저수량, 방류량으로 보령댐 유입량과 저수량을 보정(2002~2004) 및 검정(2005~2007)하였으며, 실측 저수량을 기반으로 미래 댐 운영을 모의하였다. 검·보정 결과, 댐 유입량과 저수량의 PBIAS(%)는 -0.04, -0.09, NSE(Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency)는 0.52, 0.96, RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 1.80 mm/day, 0.67 × 106㎥로 분석되어 신뢰성 있는 모의 결과를 보였다. 보정된 SWAT 모형으로 가뭄 사상이 반영된 기후변화를 모의하기 위하여 APCC의 26개 CMIP5 GCM 시나리오를 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)와 연속 이론(Runs theory)으로 분석하여 6개의 극한 가뭄 시나리오 (RCP 4.5, 8.5 CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A-MR)를 선정하였으며, 선정된 시나리오를 모형에 적용하여 가뭄 사상을 반영한 보령댐의 미래 내한능력을 평가하였다. 내한능력평가 및 분석 기간은 Historical(1980~1999; 1990s), Present(2000~2019; 2010s), 그리고 미래 기간 (2020~2039; 2030s, 2040~2059; 2050s, 2060~2079; 2070s, 2080~2099; 2090s)으로 나누었으며, 취약성(Reliability), 회복성(Resilience), 위험성(Vulnerability), 세 가지 지표로 내한능력 평가를 수행하였다. 평가 결과, 미래 취약성은 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.803까지 감소하였으며, 회복성과 위험성은 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.003, 3,567.6 × 106㎥까지 감소하였다.

  • PDF

Numerical Simulajtions of Non-ergodic Solute Transport in Strongly Heterogeneous Aquiferss (불균질도가 높은 대수층내에서의 비에르고딕 용질이동에 관한 수치 시뮬레이션)

  • Seo Byong-Min
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.245-255
    • /
    • 2005
  • Three dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of non-ergodic transport of a non-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity in isotropic heterogeneous aquifers were conducted. The log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field. Significant efforts are made to reduce the simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume, $$lt;S_{ij}'(t',l')$gt;$ and plume centroid variances, $$lt;R_{ij}'(t',l')$gt;$ were simulated with 3200 Monte Carlo runs for three variances of log K, $\omega^2_y1.0,,2.5,$ and 5.0, and three dimensionless lengths of line plume sources ( l=,5 and 10) normal to the mean velocity. The simulated second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are not fit well with the first order results. The first order theoretical results definitely underestimated the simulated transverse second spatial moments for the aquifers of large u: and small initial plume sources. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching, and the first order theoretical results of the transverse second spatial moment of the ergodic plume slightly underestimated the simulated moments.

Consumption Desire Reflected in Animation -Focused on Animation 'Wellbuying Shop' (애니메이션에 반영 된 소비욕망 -'Wellbuying Shop 1' 애니메이션을 중심으로)

  • Park, Sung-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.6 no.11
    • /
    • pp.154-160
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study is performance thesis to examine structure of excessive consuming culture of modern people's desire turning away from modern people's original purpose of aiming life that is well-being. Method of the research is theological examination of people's desire into consuming and well-being culture is critically analyzed by creation of meanings and differences of showcase that symbolize consuming culture. Also my piece of work 'Well-buying Shop 1' that above theory is applied is selected for focused analysis of concept realization method in video configuration method and technique. The symbol Showcase in the animation represent laboratory of consuming culture and desire for ownership. The animation runs for 3 minutes and 50 seconds focused on animal characters raised in well-being farm. Through cut out animating environment, animal characters have life in the animation and they are completed with long take method and temperament editing type for effort of liberal devotion between audience and the animation. Lithographic technique is used for characters and background images for trial of pictural density by pressures and variety of colors. This study was conducted with the basis of above animation showing opportunity and it has significance on trial of various color of lithographic expression technique that are not commonly used in animation image production.

  • PDF

Theoretical Study of Scientific Symmetry and Its Implications for Science Education (과학적 대칭성에 대한 이론적 고찰 및 과학교육에의 함의)

  • Kyungsuk Bae;Yeon-A Son;Jun-Young Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-29
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study aims to provide a theoretical examination of symmetry and its implications for science education. For this purpose, first, we examined the way of thinking of Western science in general through ancient Greek scholars. Second, we divided the perception of symmetry into ancient and modern times. Third, we draw out the implications for science education. The results of this study show that, first, the way of thinking in Western science is 'abstraction', which began with Parmenides and was established by Plato. Second, the ancient perception of symmetry is symmetry as beautiful proportions and harmony based on abstraction, and the modern perception of symmetry is symmetry as an invariant perspective based on abstraction that seeks to find constancy in change. We examined Eratosthenes' experiment to measure the circumference of the earth as an example of ancient symmetry, and Galilean relativity or transformation as examples of modern symmetry. Third, the implications for science education are as follows. Awareness of symmetry can help educate students about the nature of science, as it is a central theme that runs through ancient and modern science. Second, the Eratosthenes' experiment and Galilean relativity or transformations are not represented in the 2022 revised curriculum, but could support understanding of science and key competencies and concepts. Finally, an integrated approach to science education centered on symmetry can have a positive impact on scientific attitudes and interest.

An Unthinking Sage? Plotinus' Model of Non-Deliberative Action (생각하지 않는 현자(賢者)? 플로티누스의 비-숙고적 행동 모델)

  • Song, Euree
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
    • /
    • no.125
    • /
    • pp.63-89
    • /
    • 2019
  • The aim of this paper is to examine the so-called theory of automatic action attributed to Plotinus, according to which the sage can act automatically without deliberation or reasoning. Concerns were raised that such a theory runs the risk of turning the agent into an automaton by reducing action to mechanical reflexes to external stimuli. I attempt to show that Plotinus does not hold a theory of automatic action by arguing that the Plotinian sage's non-deliberative action is not automatic at all. For this purpose, I first draw attention to the non-deliberative action of the World-Reason (i.e. the reason of the World-Soul), which is supposed to present an ideal model of action. Indeed, Plotinus mentions that the World-Reason rules the world "as if automatically". This is, however, meant to indicate the spontaneous and natural manner in which the World-Reason rules. In this respect, the way the World-Reason works is compared to the way nature (i.e. the productive power of the World-Soul) works. But Plotinus points out that the World-Reason knows what to do, whereas nature works without knowing. In this connection, Plotinus makes it clear that the World-Reason does not calculate or deliberate about what to do because it already knows it. To clarify this point, I turn to Plotinus' analogy of practical wisdom (phronêsis) and skill, according to which the World-Reason is compared to an accomplished craftsman or artist, who confidently works without any doubt, hesitation or difficulty, thereby expressing her intelligence, unmediated by deliberation. From this perspective, non-deliberative action according to practical wisdom turns out to be superior to deliberative action. Plotinus admits that there are difficult circumstances in which even the skilled craftsman, unlike the World-Reason who always controls the whole situation, needs to deliberate or calculate, but he is nevertheless confident that the craftsman easily finds the solution. This suggests that the sage, who possesses practical wisdom, can act normally like a great master or virtuoso without deliberation, but in an emergency situation he also employs deliberation, but resourcefully and creatively responds to challenge. The attempt is made to elucidate the Plotinian model of sage's action with the help of Csikzentmihalyi's concept of 'flow' and Annas' application of it to the analogy of virtue and skill. Finally, it is shown that the sage's virtuous action, in spite of being a habituated action, is not a passive, routinized, automatic action, but an active, flexible, intelligent action.

Water shortage assessment by applying future climate change for boryeong dam using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 보령댐의 물부족 평가)

  • Kim, Won Jin;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1195-1205
    • /
    • 2018
  • In the study, the water shortage of Boryeong Dam watershed ($163.6km^2$) was evaluated under future climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used considering future dam release derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The SWAT was calibrated and verified by using daily observed dam inflow and storage for 12 years (2005 to 2016) with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.59 and 0.91 respectively. The monthly dam release by 12 years MLR showed coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of above 0.57. Among the 27 RCP 4.5 scenarios and 26 RCP 8.5 scenarios of GCM (General Circulation Model), the RCP 8.5 BCC-CSM1-1-M scenario was selected as future extreme drought scenario by analyzing SPI severity, duration, and the longest dry period. The scenario showed -23.6% change of yearly dam storage, and big changes of -34.0% and -24.1% for spring and winter dam storage during 2037~2047 period comparing with 2007~2016 period. Based on Runs theory of analyzing severity and magnitude, the future frequency of 5 to 10 years increased from 3 in 2007~2016 to 5 in 2037~2046 period. When considering the future shortened water shortage return period and the big decreases of winter and spring dam storage, a new dam operation rule from autumn is necessary for future possible water shortage condition.

Monte-Carlo Simulations of Non-ergodic Solute Transport from Line Sources in Isotropic Mildly Heterogeneous Aquifers (불균질 등방 대수층 내 선형오염원으로부터 기원된 비에르고딕 용질 이동에 관한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션)

  • Seo Byong-min
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.10 no.6
    • /
    • pp.20-31
    • /
    • 2005
  • Three dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of non-ergodic transport of a lion-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity in isotropic heterogeneous aquifers were conducted. The log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field. Significant efforts are made to reduce tile simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo runs for three variances of log K, ${\sigma}_Y^2=0.09,\;0.23$, and 0.46, and three dimensionless lengths of line plume sources normal to the mean velocity. The simulated second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first order results. The first order theoretical results significantly underestimated the simulated dimensionless transverse moments for the aquifers of large ${\sigma}_Y^2$ and large dimensionless time. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated, and transport In transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction. The evolution of the contaminant transported in a heterogeneous aquifer is not affected by the shape of the initial plume but affected mainly by the degree of the heterogeneity and the size of the initial plume.

Design of Omok AI using Genetic Algorithm and Game Trees and Their Parallel Processing on the GPU (유전 알고리즘과 게임 트리를 병합한 오목 인공지능 설계 및 GPU 기반 병렬 처리 기법)

  • Ahn, Il-Jun;Park, In-Kyu
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.66-75
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper proposes an efficient method for design and implementation of the artificial intelligence (AI) of 'omok' game on the GPU. The proposed AI is designed on a cooperative structure using min-max game tree and genetic algorithm. Since the evaluation function needs intensive computation but is independently performed on a lot of candidates in the solution space, it is computed on the GPU in a massive parallel way. The implementation on NVIDIA CUDA and the experimental results show that it outperforms significantly over the CPU, in which parallel game tree and genetic algorithm on the GPU runs more than 400 times and 300 times faster than on the CPU. In the proposed cooperative AI, selective search using genetic algorithm is performed subsequently after the full search using game tree to search the solution space more efficiently as well as to avoid the thread overflow. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm enhances the AI significantly and makes it run within the time limit given by the game's rule.

Case Study Using Action Learning on Parent Education Program for Prospective Early Childhood Teachers (액션러닝 교수법을 적용한 예비유아교사의 부모교육 수업 사례연구)

  • Kim, Sook Ryung;Park, Jungwon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.17 no.12
    • /
    • pp.148-157
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study provided an overview of how action learning runs in parents' education classes by analyzing the case of parent education program for prospective early childhood teachers. The subjects of this study were 32 pre - service teachers (30 students in early childhood education, 2 double major students) who were enrolled in the department of early childhood education at P university in Daejeon. The research was conducted theoretical and practical action learning program for 12 weeks. The data collection was organized by students preparing weekly diaries, group assignments, in-depth interview materials, colleagues and self-assessment, and analysed with the qualitative case study approach. The results of the qualitative analysis are as follows: Action learning teaching method provided opportunities to encounter diverse cases through student led and group activities. Students could experience a specific problem solving method between parents-children relationships as prospective parents. Students could have a chance to solve real-life situations that are difficult to experience in theoretical classroom situations between teachers-parents relationship as prospective teachers. Although the realization of practical knowledge of real-world conflict has been challenging, it has become a chance to have confidence with the role of parents and the role of teachers in the future.