• Title/Summary/Keyword: Run-off coefficients

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A Study on Stochastic Estimation of Monthly Runoff by Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석에 의한 하천 월 유출량의 추계학적 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김태철;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 1980
  • Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

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A study on the estimation of TMDL run-off pathway coefficients for livestock resources (축분자원화물의 총량관리지침 배출구조계수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Gee-Bong;Lee, Young-Sin
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2013
  • In this study, field scale test was conducted to estimate the TMDL coefficients (runoff and leachate:(${\beta}4$)(${\beta}5$)(${\beta}8$)) for the livestock resources applying to agricultural crop land as fertilizer, and the results were obtained as follows. Each waste reduction coefficient(${\beta}4$) was shown to be in the range of 0.94~0.75 for public waste treatment plants and 0.99~0.83 for private waste treatment in the analysis of BOD, COD, SS, T-N, T-P, TOC. Thus private plants showed higher rate. Waste treatment discharge into the land coefficient (${\beta}5$) was also shown to be in the range of 0.4.~0.24 for public plants and 0.75~0.16 for private plants, so it is much lower than other coefficients. However SS and T-P were shown to be much higher for land discharge in private plants than in public plants. Treatment coefficient in the public plants (${\beta}8$) appeared to be average 0.75 for T-P but over 90% treatment efficiency and also large deviation were observed due to 0.2 of some other treatment plants.

River Flow Forecasting Model for the Youngsan Estuary Reservoir Operation( II) - Simulating Runoff Hydrograptis at Ungaged Stations - (영산호 운영을 위한 홍수예보모형의 개발(II) -나주하류유성에서의 총수유출 추정-)

  • 박창언;박승우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 1995
  • This paper describes the applications of the SCS TR-20 hydrologic model for simula- tion of hourly inflow rates from sixty-six ungaged tributaries and subareas between the Naju station and the estuarin dam at the Yongsan River Basin. The model was tested for the ungaged conditions with fifteen storm events at Naju station. Hourly simulated run- off data were compared with the observed, and the results showed less correlationships between the two data than those from TANK model. The coefficients of correlation ranged from 0.74 to 0.87. The curve numbers and time of concentration were defined from topographic dta for each of sixty-six tributaries for the estuarine dam and used for TR-20 applications. The results were within an acceptable range of errors in simulating the inflow fluctuations for the flood forecasting at the estuarine dam.

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Impacts of wind shielding effects of bridge tower on railway vehicle running performance

  • Wu, Mengxue;Li, Yongle;Zhang, Wei
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-77
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    • 2017
  • When railway vehicles run by towers of long span bridges, the railway vehicles might experience a sudden load-off and load-on phenomenon in crosswind conditions. To ensure the running safety of the railway vehicles and the running comfort of the passengers, some studies were carried out to investigate the impacts of sudden changes of aerodynamic loads on moving railway vehicles. In the present study, the aerodynamic coefficients which were measured in wind tunnel tests using a moving train model are converted into the aerodynamic coefficients in the actual scale. The three-component aerodynamic loads are calculated based on the aerodynamic coefficients with consideration of the vehicle movement. A three-dimensional railway vehicle model is set up using the multibody dynamic theory, and the aerodynamic loads are treated as the inputs of excitation varied with time for kinetic simulations of the railway vehicle. Thus the dynamic responses of the railway vehicle passing by the bridge tower can be obtained from the kinetic simulations in the time domain. The effects of the mean wind speeds and the rail track positions on the running performance of the railway vehicle are discussed. The three-component aerodynamic loads on the railway vehicle are found to experience significant sudden changes when the vehicle passes by the bridge tower. Correspondingly, such sudden changes of aerodynamic loads have a large impact on the dynamic performance of the running railway vehicle. The dynamic responses of the railway vehicle have great fluctuations and significant sudden changes, which is adverse to the running safety and comfort of the railway vehicle passing by the bridge tower in crosswind conditions.

Analysis of Storm Water Run-off Characteristics during Wet Weather (강우시 합류식 하수관거의 유출특성 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-Hyun;Choi, Seung-Chol;Park, Eun-Young;Rim, Jay-Myoung
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.22 no.B
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2002
  • Much of domestic city is served by combined sewer system rather than separate sanitary or storm sewers. During wet weather, when the volume of sanitary sewage and storm water entering the combined sewers exceeds the system capacity, the system is designed to overflow at several designated CSOs. The objective of this research is to have grasp of characteristics of combined sewer runoff and to evaluate efficiently the intercepted volume of CSOs. During the wet weather in first rainfall, SS load at each site H-1, H-2, and H-3 were 600kg/event, 370kg/event, and 289kg/event, SS load at each site in second rainfall were 216kg/event, 113kg/event, and 37.2kg/event. EMCs at each site were 702mg/L, 816mg/L, 861mg/L in first rainfall and 99.9mg/L, 161.9mg/L, 103.6mg/L in second rainfall, respectively. First flush coefficients b at each site were 0.237, 0.166, and 0.151.

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An Estimation of Discharge Coefficients with the Variations of Tyrolean Weir Screen Angle (티롤리안 위어 스크린 경사에 따른 유량계수 추정)

  • Yu, Chang Hwan;Beck, Yoo Hyun;Oh, Yeun Kun;Choi, Ik Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.227-227
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    • 2018
  • 티롤리안 위어(Tyrolean Weir)는 유송잡물 및 유사의 영향이 비교적 높은 산악지역에 설치되는 취수구조물로 대부분 저류면적이 제한된 자류식(Run-Off River) 수력발전 및 소규모 농업용수 취수시설에 적합한 구조물이다. 티롤리안 위어는 일반적인 취수시설과 비교하여 구조물의 규모를 최소화할 수 있어 친환경적 취수구조물로 분류할 수 있다. 아직까지 국내에서는 설치사례가 없고 연구성과 또한 부족하여 적용성에 한계가 있는 것이 사실이다. 본 연구에서는 3차원 유동해석 프로그램인 FLOW-3D를 이용하여 티롤리안 위어의 월류흐름특성을 분석하고 스크린 경사와 월류수위 변화에 따른 유량계수를 산정하였다. 티롤리안 위어 스크린경사에 따른 수치모형실험을 위해 3차원 AUTO CAD 프로그램을 이용하여 위어폭 11.0m, 길이 10m 및 수로경사 2:3의 솔리드 모형을 구성하였으며, 티롤리안 위어 스크린 경사를 $0^{\circ}$, $5^{\circ}$, $10^{\circ}$, $15^{\circ}$, $20^{\circ}$, $25^{\circ}$, $30^{\circ}$로 변화시키며 월류수심 변화에 따른 수치모형실험을 수행하였다. 금회 수치해석 분석결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻을 수 있었다. 1) 티롤리안 위어 스크린 경사가 증가할수록 유량계수가 증가하였다. 2) 월류수심 1.4m일때 월류량의 표준편차는 0.767이며 월류수심 4.4m일때 표준편차는 9.580으로 월류수심이 증가할수록 스크린 경사에 따른 표준편차는 증가하는 것으로 확인되었다. 3) 티롤리안 위어 스크린 경사가 클수록 월류수심은 감소하고 접근수로부 유속이 증가하였으며 스크린 경사가 작을수록 월류수심은 증가하고 유속이 감소하는 경향을 확인하였다. 4) 티롤리안 위어 스크린 경사가 작고 월류수심이 클수록 광정위어와 유사한 흐름특성을 보였다.

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An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force (노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망)

  • 김중수
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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A Study on the Forest Vegetation and Soil-environmental Factors Affecting the Water Quality of Iwonch on Stream (이원천 수질에 미치는 삼림식생과 토양환경요인)

  • Bang, Je-Yong;Yang, Keum-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2009
  • Characterization of the analysis of forest vegetation, soil environmental conditions and water quality were performed from March 2003 to March 2007. The two basins were characterized by cultivated area (Kaesim reservoir) and mountain area (Jangchan reservoir), and divided into eleven small basins, where dynamics of pollutants, forest vegetation and soil environmental conditions were surveyed. The vegetation can be divided into 10 types by $Z\ddot{u}rich$-Montpellier school's method. Pearson coefficients between vegetation type and water quality were correlated with dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Quercus variabilis community at the 5% level and total phosphorus (TP) in the Larix leptolepis plantation at the 1% level. Especially total phosphorous and total nitrogen increased in small basins where the proportion of cultivated and residential area increased. The analysis of influences of pollutant discharge on water quality showed that pollutant charge was very low in forest land area ($Y_{T-P}$=-0.0017X+0.2215, r=0.16, $Y_{COD}$=- 0.0395X+8.5051 r=0.47). The soil types of western area were comparatively simple, but those of eastern area were complicated with regosols, red-yellow soils, lithosoles, etc. The pH, total solid (TS) and volatile substance (VS) of the forest and agricultural land soils collected in each site were 5.4~6.9, 75.8~80.2%, and 3.80%~5.80%, respectively. According to the analytical result of soil environmental conditions, heavy metal contents fell short to the mean value of natural conditions. Runoff amount (Y) and depth of topsoil (X) were negatively correlated, $Y_{ron}=-1.0088X_{top}+35.378$ (r=0.68). The correlation was much lower in up-stream but much higher in down-stream, because permeation into soil particle was larger on down-stream due to its more or less gentle slope. Pearson coefficients between soil pH and water pH were statistically significant at 1% level.